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9:11 AM PT: IN-Sen: Seems like that's all she wrote for Dick Lugar: Howey Politics' final poll just ahead of Tuesday's primary shows Lugar trailing Richard Mourdock 48-38 among Republican primary voters. That's a devastating, but not at all unexpected, drop for Lugar from Howey's late March survey, which had him up, but precariously so, at 42-35. You'd think that if Lugar had some better numbers of his own, he'd have shown them to us by now, no? In any event, we'll bring you a full post on these results later today.

9:37 AM PT: CA-30: This new ad from the ridiculously-named super PAC that's backing Dem Rep. Howard Berman seems to set a new low in quality—worse, I think, even that that wretched George Maragos ad from the other day. Not only are the production values worse than something you'd see from a local furniture company, but the content is pretty remarkable. The ad actually touts an endorsement for Berman from GOP Rep. Darrell Issa! (Yes, this actually happened, though it's a bit fakey since there are no Republicans in the race.)

Issa, though, isn't some moderate-ish Republican with crossover appeal—he's a hard-right radical who led the effort to recall Gov. Gray Davis and now acts as President Obama's tormenter-in-chief by ginning up endless bogus "investigations" as chair of the House Oversight Committee. This would be a bit like some outside group running a spot touting Karl Rove's "endorsement" of Howard Dean. Anyhow, watch for yourself—you'll see Issa's mug in the bottom-left corner of the Brady Bunch-style screen that appears 17 seconds in. Amazing stuff.

10:17 AM PT: Damn. Rolling Stone is confirming that Adam Yauch (aka MCA) of the Beastie Boys has died at the age of 47. Yauch was diagnosed with cancer in 2009.

10:24 AM PT: AZ-08: That new DCCC ad clearly did the trick, because Republican Jesse Kelly has now decided it's better to be known as a craven flip-flopper rather than a dystopian wrecker. You'll recall that the D-Trip slammed Kelly for statements he made when he ran for this seat last cycle, particularly his desire to see Social Security and Medicare "eliminated." Now Kelly's reversed course and has updated his website to say: "I support preserving, protecting and strengthening Social Security and Medicare. I do not support privatizing, eliminating or phasing out these programs in any way." Amusingly (and helpfully), Kelly's campaign is denying that there's "been any change of position," which deprives Kelly of the chance to at least make a clean break with the past. In other words, this anvil is still tied as firmly around his neck as ever.

10:40 AM PT: FL-Sen: Nice way to blow your credibility right on day one: Freedom PAC (I'm surprised that name wasn't taken already), a super PAC aimed at bolstering the candidacy of GOP Rep. Connie Mack, told media organizations a few days ago that it was running its first ad, attacking Dem Sen. Nelson. But now both Democratic and Republican trackers say there's no evidence that the group has made any buy whatsoever, and to make matters worse, a spokesman for the group "could not say when" the ad would appear on television. Pathetic.

10:50 AM PT: MA-Sen: So that new Elizabeth Warren ad, the one featuring Barack Obama extensively praising her? She's adding another $800K to the buy, which the New York Times says brings her television spending to a monster $1.6 mil since April 23. GOP Sen. Scott Brown is not on TV, though he has been running radio ads.

10:55 AM PT: MO-Sen: Missouri's junior senator, GOPer Roy Blunt, says he won't make an endorsement in the race against his senior counterpart, Claire McCaskill. Three Republicans are vying to take her on: Rep. Todd Akin, ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, and rich guy John Brunner.

11:01 AM PT: NJ-09: It feels like every political analyst was just waiting for this one to happen, and now here we are: Bill Clinton has endorsed Rep. Bill Pascrell in his member-vs.-member primary fight against fellow Rep. Steve Rothman. I hardly need tell you that Pascrell was a Hillary Clinton supporter and Rothman a backer of Barack Obama, do I? Rothman made a good point about Bill Clinton's views on loyalty just a day earlier, though: Back when Clinton was facing impeachment proceedings over the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Rothman served on the House Judiciary Committee and says he offered a "very strong defense" of the president "day after day and night after night" and "not only in committee, but on a variety of cable news shows." I think it's very strange to see Clinton forsake someone who backed him to the hilt in his hour of greatest need simply because he didn't endorse his wife's presidential bid.

11:02 AM PT (James L): MI-07: In the end, the weeks-long campaign by the DCCC to lure ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, a moderate Republican, into a rematch against GOP Rep. Tim Walberg under the Democratic banner just didn't pan out. The 74 year-old Schwarz publicly toyed with the idea of running as a Democrat for some time, issuing all sorts of teaser statements and announcement deferrals. But ultimately, Schwarz just didn't have the fire in his belly for another run, citing his distaste for fundraising, the fact that the district lines were redrawn, and his lack of interest in becoming a freshman in Congress yet again as reasons why he pulled the plug. With Michigan's filing deadline of May 15 rapidly approaching, this leaves Democrats with only obscure attorney Kurt Haskell in the race. I'd be surprised if Democrats can recruit a bigger ticket name after this disappointment.

11:06 AM PT: NM-01: Usually politicians try their hardest to avoid hot air balloons—the imagery is just too fraught. But New Mexico, of course, has tight relationship with ballooning, and as much as it pains me to say this, I think this ad from Democrat Marty Chavez, his first of the race, is actually pretty clever. Have a look at the link or below:

11:59 AM PT: CT-Sen: This thorough takedown from Xenocrypt picking apart a recent interview GOP ex-Rep. Chris Shays did on public radio is really excellent & worth the few minutes it'll take you to read it.

12:05 PM PT: CA-26: The House Majority PAC is out with a sizable $140K cable buy, backing an ad supporting Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley. As Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad notes, the ad makes a point of emphasizing Brownley's party affiliation, since there's a risk she might split votes with two other lesser-known Democrats in the race and allow a Republican (Tony Strickland) and an independent ex-Republican (Linda Parks) to sneak through the top-two primary. You can watch the spot at the link.

12:52 PM PT: MN-02: Former state Rep. Mike Obermueller, who recently received the endorsement of local Democrats at the party's district-wide convention, was just added to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" list. Obermueller will take on GOP Rep. John Kline in the redrawn 2nd District, which was made slightly bluer in redistricting.

1:01 PM PT: MN-01: You may recall that the Republican convention in the 1st District—to choose a nominee to take on third-term Dem Rep. Tim Walz—ended in a deadlock, with delegates unable to decide between state Sen. Mike Parry and former state Rep. Allen Quist after 23 rounds of balloting. There was originally talking of holding a second convention, but now those are off: Quist says he doesn't want to wait "for a convention that may not take place," so he's decided to forge ahead to the August 14 primary instead. Parry "quickly followed suit" and says he, too, will run in the primary. This is yet another example of how dumb and undemocratic these kinds of conventions are, though the good news here for Democrats is that the battle between Quist and Parry has already turned nasty—and now we get three more months of it.

1:12 PM PT: NE-Sen: Jon Bruning, who either has the GOP nomination well-in-hand or is threatened for the nod by Don Stenberg, depending on whose views (and polling) you believe, is going with the former rather than the latter. His newest ad is a pivot toward the general election, featuring an attack on Bob Kerrey and Barack Obama. You can watch at the link.

1:28 PM PT: PA-12: This is nice to see: Rep. Jason Altmire, who was just defeated by fellow Rep. Mark Critz in the Democratic primary a couple of weeks ago, is appearing with Critz and other leaders at a rally on Monday. Critz still faces a very tough re-election fight against Republican Keith Rothfus in November.

1:30 PM PT: VA-Sen: If Dem Sen. Mark Warner decides to seek re-election in 2014, he'd start (two-and-a-half years out) with a 51-40 lead over Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is almost certainly the strongest name the GOP could put up against him. PPP also has a bunch of other Virginia miscellany, including a look at whether voters support the state's unique one-term limit for governors. They're against it, actually by a 60-31 margin—though McDonnell's hypothetical re-elects are only 36-51, which might explain his somewhat soft performance against Warner. Meanwhile, Democrats have a hefty 47-38 lead on a generic congressional ballot, but with the state so heavily gerrymandered to benefit Republicans, it will be hard to make any pickups in the Old Dominion this year.

1:41 PM PT: WA-01: There've been a whole bunch of endorsements from various quarters for the various Democrats running in Washington's 1st District in the past few days, but probably the most notable is from the Communications Workers of America, who decided to back Suzan DelBene. (Interestingly, Darcy Burner herself was once a member of the CWA, but I guess that wasn't enough of a difference-maker.)

1:53 PM PT: VA-Sen: Though the Majority PAC is a Democratic-aligned group, and though they're airing a new ad on behalf of Tim Kaine (a Democrat), you'd be forgiven for thinking this was a pro-Republican ad and George Allen was the Dem. They hit Allen for increasing spending as governor, and for supporting earmarks and increasing the debt as senator. Meanwhile, they praise Kaine for cutting spending as governor and eliminating the state tax. Confusing! You can watch at the link or below:

2:15 PM PT: AZ-09: Some very ugly campaign mailers Democrat Andrei Cherny published when he ran for state Assembly in California a decade ago are coming back to haunt him in his race for Congress in Arizona. Both of Cherny's primary opponents, Kyrsten Sinema and David Schapira, have brought them up, but rather than admit he made a bad mistake years ago, Cherny's defending himself, which seems like a very bad move. The Arizona Republic has the full details on the backstory, and I encourage you to read it, but let me just reproduce one of the fliers so that you can get a sense of what I'm talking about:

Andrei Cherny (D) mailer from 2002 California Assembly race, featuring side-by-side pictures of his primary opponent, Lloyd Levine, and an African-American gang member pointing a gun; text: 'Gangs, graffiti, rapists & thugs. Our streets aren't safe with Lloyd Levine'
That was just one of them. There were at least two others:
The mailers insinuated that Cherny's Democratic opponent, Lloyd Levine, was pro-life and soft on crime, according to news reports from 10 years ago and a copy of a mailer obtained by The Republic. Two mailers tied Levine to an assemblyman "from South Central" Los Angeles who voted against bills on contraception coverage and gun control.
In response, Cherny lost a whole host of endorsements from prominent Democrats, and then went on to lose the race. Today, he still maintains the mailers "were accurate" and accuses his opponents of practicing "an ugly kind of politics" by trying to make an issue of them. Now that's chutzpah.

2:39 PM PT (James L): Today's Independent Expenditures roundup:

IN-Sen: Hoosiers For Jobs spends $64K on new mailers attacking Richard Mourdock (R)

TX-Sen:  The Conservative Renewal Political Action Committee makes a $125K "print ad" buy in support of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R)

CA-01: The Citizens for Prosperity and Good Government dish out $52K for radio ads backing state Sen. Doug LaMalfa (R) for his bid to replace retiring GOP Rep. Wally Herger

CA-26: The House Majority PAC spends $141K on a TV buy backing state Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D) in this open seat primary

CA-30: The Committee to Elect an Effective Valley Congressman makes an $81K media buy in support of Rep. Howard Berman (D)

IN-05: The Campaign for Primary Accountability drops another $47K on TV and radio ads in support of ex-Rep. David McIntosh (R)

2:52 PM PT (James L): Ah, here's one more IE shrimp that just came over the wire for your electoral barbie:

VA-Sen: Majority PAC places a $215K TV buy on behalf of Tim Kaine (D)

One interesting thing about the above filing by Majority PAC is that it also contains a small expenditure in the Indiana Senate race: $9K worth of online ads against Dick Lugar! It seems that we may have some low key rat-fucking going on here...


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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm (11+ / 0-)

    sure Pete Stark will be happy to read your list of people Eric Swalwell took bribes from.

    While we're on that note, the Chronicle endorsed Eric Swalwell last night.

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:08:33 AM PDT

  •  Oh Look (17+ / 0-)

    The amount of federal agencies Rick Perry can remember.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught; B.A. in Political Philosophy/Science), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:15:31 AM PDT

  •  Oh wow, I forgot (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

    about the Live Digest. I'm already commented out for the day re: the other thing. Can we just not have a Live Digest today? Save everything so some of us have something to do on our boring Saturday's in Germany.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:34:21 AM PDT

  •  UK Local council elections (11+ / 0-)

    Labour had a very great night, though it looks like the big prize of the London Mayoralty will go to the Tories.

    • Labour Party makes sweeping gains in grim night for Coalition
    • Lab gain 702 seats and 29 councils, Tories down 377 seats
    • Nick Clegg "really sad" as Lib dems lose 254 seats and a council
    • Battle for London: Boris 45% Ken 39% Paddick in 4th at 4%
    • Latest forecast: Lab 39%, Tories 31%, Lib Dem 16%. Turnout 30%
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:38:53 AM PDT

    •  That's weird, I thought London would shift hard (0+ / 0-)

      against Tories.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:31:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It did. (6+ / 0-)

        Generic Labour/Torie polling had the Tories down by 15 points, Boris Johnson just a) sufficiently differentiated himself from the Tories, being 1a). euroskeptic (you can see how good UKIP did) 2a). socially liberal, and openly advocating Amnesty for illegals and b). lucked out that the entire election ended up being about Livingstone's taxes. Boris is simply not associated with the unpopular coalition. Oh, and Livingstone sucks as a candidate.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:59:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, wu ming, Daman09, MichaelNY

        well Ken Livingstone isn't the most impressive candidate in the world. In fact he carries a lot of baggage from his time as London mayor (2000-2008) from what I have read. Plus it doesn't help Boris Johnson far outpaces Ken Livingstone in the charisma department.

        Livingstone's election broadcast is pretty impressive though. Maybe the Obama campaign should air an ad like this in the next coming months.

        Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

        by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:59:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Magellan AZ poll (7+ / 0-)

    Not sure if this was discussed elsewhere but there were some odd numbers in the crosstabs in comparison to the 2008 exit poll.

    Obama got 56% of the Latino vote against McCain and 40% of whites.

    http://edition.cnn.com/...

    But here the president polls just 42% of Hispanics and 43% of whites. Bizarre.

    http://magellanstrategies.com/...

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:51:49 AM PDT

  •  IN-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, drhoosierdem, bythesea

    Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground poll shows Dick Lugar trailing Richard Murdock 48-38%. Poll was done by both Bellweather Research (GOP) and Garin-Hart-Yang research.

    http://www.indystar.com/...

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:06:33 AM PDT

  •  The Obama administration... (15+ / 0-)

    Pulls yet another rabbit out of its hat in foreign policy. Rather than doing something ridiculous like spiriting Chen and his entire family out of the People's Republic of China on a diplomatic jet, Secy. Clinton has negotiated with Beijing to allow Chen to "study abroad" with his family in the United States. Not a fait accompli, but Beijing has given verbal assent. Story here.

    The announcement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry followed a dramatic and very public appeal by Chen, who spoke by phone to a U.S. congressional hearing on his case, asking to be allowed to spend time in the United States after fleeing 19 months of extra-judicial captivity in his home village.

    "If he wants to study abroad, he can apply through normal channels to the relevant departments in accordance with the law, just like any other Chinese citizen," ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in a brief statement, adding Chen was still being treated in hospital.

    So suck it, Mitt Romney. Guess you can go back to not standing up for Richard Grenell without being able to point at some Chinese dissident and yell, "Look, a pony!"

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:11:52 AM PDT

  •  PPP Iowa Poll.. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TofG, KingofSpades, askew

    Any more hints from PPP about how Obama is doing?

  •  IN-SEN (5+ / 0-)

    Talk about a contrast in closing arguments. This explains everything that went wrong for him in this race.

    Mourdock:

    Lugar:

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:41:45 AM PDT

    •  This is why you do not (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      necessarily want to go years without having a serious challenge. You get rusty. Lugar has run a horrible campaign. This was always going to be somewhat close. But with Daniel's support, an open primary, and years of built up good will should have been able to get Lugar over the finish line. It is not like Mourdock has run a great campaign, he really hasn't. Lugar has just been atrocious though.

      Oh hell. Just don't support Robert Winningham in Indiana's 9th Congressional District

      by drhoosierdem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:29:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's Like I've Been Saying (6+ / 0-)

        Mourdock hasn't had to run a good campaign.  If anything, Mourdock has been almost completely absent from the campaign as far as I've known.  The two things it took for Mourdock to win and Lugar to lose were a unified primary opposition to Lugar and a boatload of cash to smear Lugar on the airwaves. For the most part, Mourdock hasn't had to lift a finger throughout this entire process.  He just needed to keep other GOP opponents out of the race and get groups like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks to back his campaign.  This entire primary has basically been a big proxy war between Chris Chocola (CfG) and Norm Coleman (AAN).  The race was generally out of the control of Mourdock and Lugar.  This is the other reason I think we'll be extremely competitive in November.  Saying that Mourdock is an unremarkable campaigner is a very generous description given his relatively atrocious fundraising.  He can't survive without big spending groups, and people can't get inspired by the guy.  Donnelly, in contrast, has run a tough campaign before and can appeal to Hoosiers throughout the state.  Once Mourdock wins the primary, the spigots are going to flood Donnelly's campaign with money and support.  In short, Mourdock is an awful campaigner, but his campaign skills haven't been necessary to take down Lugar.  It was out of his hands.

        "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

        by AndySonSon on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:11:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  well you don't give enough credit to Lugar and (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, TofG, gabjoh, MichaelNY, skibum59

          his camp for running an atrocious campaign, but other than that, yeah.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:05:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Only on the margins (0+ / 0-)

            Lugar certainly did himself no favors throughout this campaign with his multiple gaffes and campaign problems.  However, this campaign was largely contingent on the two points I mentioned.  These campaign issues certainly hurt Lugar on the margins, but they weren't close to being the deciding factor of this campaign.  Contingent upon my two points occurring in this campaign, the end result was already pretty baked in.

            "They don't think it be like it is, but it do." -- Oscar Gamble; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

            by AndySonSon on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:03:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  NY 18: Rep Hayworth's gay rights dilemma (4+ / 0-)

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    Branding Rep. Hayworth as a conservative will be hard because she will lean on her social views to claim she is a moderate.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:52:05 AM PDT

  •  Jobs report (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tk421

    WCBS-AM, all-news radio in New York, has been reporting the April jobs report negatively all morning. Time to talk about what effect that will have on the campaigns.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:05:05 AM PDT

    •  It's All Over The Morning Thread..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bfen

      Everybody but me believes the jobs report portends nothing but endlessly fantastic things for the economic future and Obama's future.  I was the usual grump.  I expect you will be ripped to shreds for even daring to mention that the media is negatively reporting the April jobs market....and will be told that even if they are, it won't have any affect whatsoever on the public psyche.

      •  I dont think that's fair (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Mark27, TofG, DCCyclone

        The discussion, imo, was a pretty decent back and forth.

        •  Probably Right....Sorry If It Was Too Snarky (n/t) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, jj32
          •  I think considering the unfounded (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, TofG, askew, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            hysteria you brought to the issue, people were pretty polite, thorough, and on subject, particularly DCCyclone who seems to have a bit more background in economics.

            http://www.google.com/...

            A balanced over all article, one that isn't going to sink the economy or Obama, and it even notes that if the economy continues adding 100,000+ jobs a month for the entire, it would be the first time since the heydey of the dotcom boom in 1999 that this has happened.

            The slow recovery of this economy is also increasingly in line with the rate of modern recessions.

            Also, the U6 rate remained stable, suggesting that the .1% drop in unemployment is not entirely due to people dropping out of the labor force. A lot of baby boomers are retiring, and a lot more people are going to college, which might account for the smaller population employed or looking for jobs.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:02:16 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  More elaboration on what I think (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Let me emphasize first that I think the economics and politics of this are two completely different things.

              The economics of it are mixed, with the key being declines the past couple months in the labor force participation rate, which allowed unemployment to drop in spite of seemingly inadequate job growth numbers.  There are downsides to labor force participation decline, but some hard-to-quantify share of it is simply early retirements, other voluntary exits, and a decline in population growth, perhaps even real-life self-deporations by undocumenteds as jobs are harder to come by.  But this decline in labor force participation is long-term, not recent, and will continue for many years.  This Ezra Klein story explains in very readable form:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/...  Another readable piece on this today from TPM:  http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...  Ultimately I'm skeptical this really matters long-term for our national economic well-being.

              The politics of this, I'm very confident I'm right (as explained below) that the unemployment rate is all that matters.  Politically, the unemployment rate is the end zone, all else, including job growth numbers, are just hashmarks on the field.

              I realized thinking through this tonight, my point already has been proven through this long and slow recovery.  Think back to a couple years ago, a lot of economic doom porn online was explaining that we needed ridiculous job growth to bring down unemployment as quickly as we've actually seen, like 300K or 400K monthly.  These estimates were based on assumptions that the labor force participation rate and population growth both would be higher than they've been.  Well, we never got what we back then thought was "adequate" job growth, and yet the unemployment rate declined and people are feeling better about the economy and Obama's job approval has recovered to an electable level.

              So now we've had these disappointing job growth numbers the past couple months...but unemployment is declining anyway.  Just like previously.  What do you think is going to happen, really?  Think about it, if we have a couple more months of tepid jobs numbers, but unemployment drops to 7.9 because more people leave the labor force, do you really think anyone will care about the jobs numbers?  That's a rhetorical question, the answer is certainly not.

              People just don't care about the jobs number for its own sake.  They just want whatever number is adequate to bring down unemployment in steady fashion.  If that's 120K, then that's enough, if it's 200K, then that's enough, but if we get 250K but unemployment rises, then that's not enough and they will disregard claims that's a "good" number.  This is exactly why I've feared unemployment rising as job growth improves, due to people re-entering the workforce.  I'm convinced people will just see it as a negative, because the unemployment rate is the end-all.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:16:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I may be half-remembering or misremembering this (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                But didn't Nate Silver claim that average% gain/loss in household income correlates better with election results than unemployment rate figures?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:53:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes he did, but... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  ...I bet the unemployment rate trend coming out of a recession, rather than the absolote rate, corrolates plenty well enough.  And unemployment rate is more reliable in real time, you don't see crazy revisions like you do for real income and most else.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:11:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Other headlines (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, bumiputera, TofG, askew, MichaelNY
            Unemployment rate ticked down in April, but barely - Philadelphia Inquirer
            In Depth:Unemployment rate hits three-year low. Hooray? No, boo! - Christian Science Monitor
            AP Survey: Steady Job Gains To Sustain US Recovery -
            TheStreet.com
            Job Growth Trails Forecasts Amid U.S. Slowdown Concern: Economy - San Francisco Chronicle
               
            Economy added 115000 jobs in April; unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent - Washington Post
            US Added Only 115000 Jobs in April; Rate Is 8.1% - New York Times
            Mixed as others predicted, but hard to imagine it hurts Obama. Voters look at the positive bottom lines. And many of the articles are more balanced than the titles.

            Not to mention these April numbers are probably really undershooting it. They'll probably be revised to closer to 150,000, which isn't that bad. May and June should be around 200,000, most likely, given what we've gotten in March and what I'm predicting April's final numbers will be (March was revised significantly upwards too), and the fact that the summer should see a bit of an uptick if our pessimistic attitudes don't overwhelm businesses, and there isn't a big crisis with Iran or another European country in the grips of a debt crisis.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:08:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  GOP and Romney just have "not fast enough" (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, TofG, askew, MichaelNY

              but then offer the same Bush/GOP policies that caused the collapse in the first place.  If Romney offered something different and new he might have a chance with his "not fast enough" argument.

            •  You could've copied-and-pasted from... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, itskevin

              ...the early April headlines on the March numbers.  It was all the same as you shared just now.

              And it didn't hurt Obama one bit.

              The unemployment rate is a powerful thing psychologically, because it's what people care about as the ends, all else is just the means.

              Yeah the headlines affect perception, but the headlines are mixed, not bad.  Ultimately people can't and don't bring themselves to see a report as "bad" that includes an unemployment rate decline.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:20:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Oy (5+ / 0-)

        I know you're pissed that some people stepped over the line and called you a concern troll. But there is no need to put words in other people's mouths. No one is saying this is a great report, but nor is it apocalyptic, and there are actually some good numbers today to mitigate the weaker-than-expected job creation.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:20:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  job report (5+ / 0-)

          Overall I don't think it was especially good or bad. If you take out the effect of the mild winter pulling some hiring forward from April into January or February and the fluky decline in transportation it probably would have been in the 150-170 range.

          For purposes of the election, any report that doesn't suggest that things will get significantly worse over the next few months helps Obama.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:43:53 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It might actually be 150K-170K anyway (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, itskevin

            March was in that range after all, thanks to the revision, and there will be yet another March revision the first Friday of June.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:58:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think any unemployment rate decline helps (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, itskevin

            It's 8.1.  We keep being told to fear it rising again, or at best stagnating where it is.  But it does neither, it just keeps falling.

            We just as easily could've had 250K jobs today and still 8.1, or even 8.2 or 8.3.  Maybe the media would've spun it as good news, but I think any good coverage would've been fleeting, and a rate actually climbing to 8.3 would eventually hurt more than help.

            Similarly, the rate declining eventually helps more than the jobs numbers hurt.

            I'm speaking, of course, politically, not on the economics.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:23:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  As soon as one single person bases his/her vote (8+ / 0-)

        on an April jobs report, let me know.

        The next five months of jobs report cumulatively, that will matter, this is trivia.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:41:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Problem? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, TofG, tk421, sacman701, MichaelNY

      My sense is that it will be a problem but how much of one may be contingent on the next couple of weeks new claims, and how successful  Obama is at calling attention to the fact that Romney's plans are Bush 2, and this is the Bush-Romney recession cum slow recovery. If I were running I'd tie Bush and Romney togther as tightly as I could, the advisers are the same and the plans are the same.

    •  Will just have to see (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, askew, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      I'm skeptical that media coverage has a huge effect on people's views of the economy. But I guess we'll see in the next few weeks.

    •  It's a mixed to weak report... (7+ / 0-)

      and will need to play its way through the news cycle. And we'll probably take a minor hit from it. But it's not a bad report, so we'll likely rebound fast once the headlines shift. And it doesn't reflect any cyclical changes that I can see, mostly early spring hiring and seasonal adjustments. The coming months will be much more instructive. Personally, I think there's a good chance they could surprise to the upside.

    •  It strikes me as a serious problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, MichaelNY

      not least because it doesn't stand alone. I've been reading bad economic news for something like the past month.

      We keep hoping for a real jobs recovery without taking the steps necessary to actually have one. It sets us up for yet another "recovery summer."

      :(

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:42:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could you explain this to me? (4+ / 0-)

        Because I'm not an economist, but I've had a couple of economics classes and a fair literacy on the subject, particularly macroeconomics and policy economics. I've been reading 20-30 economic news articles a week, and I've seen a great many strong underlying fundamentals and good news over the past month (such as more consumer saving over the last quarter), could explain to me what's been negative and why and link me some information?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:24:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's really quite simple (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and has been on the front page of this website, among several other places. First, the chart Meteor Blades posts regularly showing our relative lack of a jobs recovery. Second, Paul Krugman's constant reminders that we seem more inclined to repeat the mistakes of 1937 than to avoid them. The states have been practicing austerity (mostly by necessity) and the Federal government has basically been treading water--which isn't enough to make up for the demand shortfall. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve refuses to take bolder measures to address unemployment (i.e., promising to target higher interest rates into the recovery).

          Could it really be that you've managed to miss this discussion?

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:34:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I like Krugman, but his pessimism (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TofG, askew, MichaelNY

            while well-founded, might be missing the forest for the trees. I think what he discusses will make the recovery continue to be slower, but I think the economy will trudge ahead anyway.

            I was referencing data I've read on consumer savings, corporate savings, manufacturing data, U.S. Demographics vis a vis Europe and Japan, info on how China's economic gains might be as small as only half the numbers the Chinese government tosses out, and also just general assumption that seasonally summer is a stronger period economically than spring. The housing market is also stabilizing, the U6 is stable, the job growth isn't great, but it isn't bad either. Unemployment is trickling down. The numbers will probably be revised upwards to closer to 150,000 if March is any indicator. Fuel prices have peaked and are edging back down. Europe seems set for a stable summer, financially.

            These are the sorts of general data points I was mentioning as my issue. They all seem to indicate that regardless of some state austerity measures and problems with Bernanke's determination to die by Friedman's idioms (and Obama's mistake in reappointing him head of the Fed), that the U.S. is in a fine position for solid job growth this summer. And we would have had decent growth last summer if not for the debt ceiling crisis and the EuroZone crisis, coinciding with a sharp increase in oil futures.

            I feel more confident that this summer isn't going to be screwed up.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:03:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  By any modern standard, (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27, MichaelNY

              our level of unemployment is scandalous. And the political danger in saying that the economy is on the right track is that we're only a few news cycles from Wile E. Coyote's "gravity lessons."

              If you really think everything is basically ok, I don't know if there's much I can say. Everything isn't ok--or getting ok anytime soon. I put myself with Atrios and Krugman on that. And I fear that the "right track/wrong track" numbers reflect an electorate that basically feels the same way. Now whether Romney can do anything with that is a different question. I sure hope not.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:29:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think that a lot of the fundamentals (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, askew, MichaelNY

                for the U.S. are stronger than they have been in several years, and this summer it seems like there is a good chance the country won't get stricken by any external political or economic crisis's.

                Things still aren't good, but I don't you can call the over all picture bad. There's still an enormous amount of work to do, and years of restructuring, but I see an overall picture that is slowly brightening and moving forward. April's numbers were not so horrible, and, going by payroll firms and unemployment numbers and what happened in March, it seems extremely likely that when the numbers are finalized they will be revised significantly higher.

                Our level of unemployment isn't so scandalous. Many modernized, wealthy, industrialized countries are dealing with worse and have been for many years. America itself has had 8 percent unemployment in the 1980s and 1990s. It's improved a lot over just the last 18 months, and that despite a levy of interferences and problems, including much of what Krugman often talks about.

                But please don't talk at me like I'm an idiot or seeing things from rose-colored classes. I love Krugman's writings, he's brilliant and scathing. I just think he's a bit too pessimistic, though mostly right about Europe. Krugman especially tends to focus on the negative factors with America, so I always take him with a broader picture and an open mind. To each his own.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:44:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Those "arguments" are foolish (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, itskevin

            Krugman is excellent as a rule, but his doom porn has missed the mark for a year-and-a-half now.

            And Meteor Blades' points are beside the point to voters.

            The unemployment rate is the crown jewel of data politically, it's all voters really understand and care about and want fixed.

            And for a couple months now, in spite of the renewed doom porn, the rate has declined.  That's a salve all by itself.

            The jobs numbers are concern only to the extent you want to believe they signal unemployment stagnating or rising down the road.  But I'm not seeing anyone say that.  Instead, the doom porn shifts to declining labor force participation, with the implication that's from discouraged workers dropping out...but BLS has a measure of discouraged workers and underemployed part-time workers that dropped big in March and held steady in today's April report.  So no real change there, and the decline comes more from elsewhere, much more voluntary exits than involuntary ones.

            So all the economic concern trolling is wild hyperbole, unjustified by data, and not shared by most voters at present.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:28:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone

              I give Krugman a lot of deference, since his writing is very persuasive to me and he has a Nobel Prize in Economics.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:55:22 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Persuasive to me, too, but... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                ...he wasn't saying back in fall 2010 that unemployment would decline to 8.1 by spring 2012.  He would've laughed that off as ridiculous.

                So his near-term views have lost a lot of persuasiveness with me.

                He's still excellent otherwise, he predicted the housing bust that started the recession and was right that the stimulus we had wasn't enough to accomplish the pace of recovery we all wanted.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:13:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  "much more voluntary exits than ... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              ... involuntary ones."

              Inquiring minds would love to see your data on this.

              Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

              by Meteor Blades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:33:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I noted it in my comment (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, tietack

                U6 dropped big from 14.9 to 14.5 in March and held steady in April.  It becomes awful hard to argue that a significant drop in labor force participation includes largely involuntary exits when U6 says the opposite.

                Meanwhile, a study cited in one of the pieces I linked in another comment I madehere (and I think it was the Ezra Klein piece, not the TPM piece, but I haven't looked again to be sure) estimate the breakdown of labor force exiters, supporting my point.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat May 05, 2012 at 05:51:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Most of the drop in... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, tietack

                  ...U6 has to do with part-time workers becoming full-time workers. That's always been the case. And, while it is absolutely true that baby boomers will change the workforce demographic over the next 10-15 years, the idea that they are the major reason behind the recent plunge is not backed up the evidence. The most that any economists say voluntary early retirements of that generation are changing things is about half of the drop in LP. It's generally considered to be closer to a third.

                  And even that does not speak to voluntary. If you're 62 and you get laid off, your chances of finding a job are small in most fields. So, you pack up your career and call it quits. But not because you want to. While that puts downward pressure on the unemployment rate, it's not exactly a happy story.

                  Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

                  by Meteor Blades on Sat May 05, 2012 at 10:58:16 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Show me a cite for your first statement (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack, MichaelNY, itskevin

                    That's not something I've heard or read before, that U6 drops are all from part-timers going full-time.  I'm no expert in the data itself but I have a long professional background in unemployment compensation law.

                    If we're really having a large number of people in a single month suddenly becoming discouraged, enough to bring down the unemployment rate even when job growth supposedly is poor, and yet U6 doesn't rise, then that's a helluva lot of part-timers going full-time at the same time and strains credulity.

                    These April reports were essentially identical to the initial March unemployment and job growth reports and yet U6 dropped big, so that makes your claim about part-timers even more strained, even accounting for the +34K jobs revision.

                    Regarding early retirements, while they're not a happy story, they're not reasonably equated with the "unemployed" as that term is understood, and they're not relevant to measuring unemployment.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat May 05, 2012 at 07:51:55 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  So, U6 dropped... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack, MichaelNY

                      ...from 14.9 to 14.5 percent in March. And stayed there in April (seasonally adjusted, of course).

                      U6 is made of up Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

                      Productivity went down 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2012. This means employers are having a tougher time squeezing more production out of the existing workforce. And that often means making part-timers full-time employees instead of hiring new workers. In the same period, U6 dropped 0.6 from 15.1 to 14.5. It's a pretty clear line, imo.

                      As for the retired, you said the retirements were voluntary in your original comment. As if this was the natural order. My point is that however many there were, a lot of them in this economic climate were NOT voluntary but essentially forced. They may not be relevant to the unemployment count, but they are certainly relevant to economic well-being.

                      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

                      by Meteor Blades on Sat May 05, 2012 at 08:03:20 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I still don't see support for your conclusion (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        tietack, NMLib, MichaelNY

                        It looks to me like you're cherry-picking stuff there rather than looking at a full picture.

                        First, I'm well-aware what comprises U6, and it's why I'm skeptical of your argument, since it includes more than just U5 plus part-timers, it's also the marginals.

                        Second, it's not satisfactory to simply look at the initial productivity measure for Q1 and say "they just made part-timers into full-timers."  Most importantly, that's highly simplistic and still isn't supported by other data points in the unemployment and jobs reports.  Further, that productivity report itself is subject to revisions, you cannot take the initial to the bank...and for that matter you also cannot take the initial April jobs numbers to the bank, all but a rare few months have had upward revisions for a very long time now.  In any case, that's the flipside of your argument about early retirements, as just as early retirements can be unhappy, part-timers going full-time is a happy story of economic well-being.

                        Unless you've got more data to support your conclusion or a link to someone else making the case, I ain't buyin'.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Sat May 05, 2012 at 08:31:26 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Since I'll be having my usual conversation... (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Onomastic, tietack, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                          ...with a couple of BLS statisticians next week, I will get  direct quotations for you, both about exits of baby boomers and about part-timers becoming full-timers.

                          As for upward revisions, yes, I know. I've been reporting on these for several years. But what's the relevance to our discussion? Right now, the revisions are upward, but the original figures for the past two months are weak, so they still don't get us into the realm of truly healthy job growth.  

                          As for part-timers getting full-time jobs, that is good news. But it doesn't change the overall picture until new hires are made since the BLS counts any job someone has, even 10 hours a week as being employed. If I go from 10 to 40, it only changes U6 and not U3. It's only a precursor (hopefully) to better times.

                          Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

                          by Meteor Blades on Sun May 06, 2012 at 12:53:07 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I'd like to hear this discussion continued (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                            in the appropriate DKE daily digest, when you get your quotes.

                            Unemployment numbers are part of our regular "meta" discussion on what we believe is the key economic factor that affects the '12 election.

                            "Healthy job growth," whatever that means (people do define that number differently) may be different -- and is probably significantly higher -- than the job growth number that's sufficient to ensure a second term for the President.

                            So while we care about "healthy job growth," our focus on the "elections" side is on the number that's sufficient for at least a second term, and potentially to retake Congress.

                            In that light, the upward revisions that we've seen add to the narrative that the economy is improving under the President's stewardship.

                            (I realize that as one of David's colleagues, the two of you probably go back and forth on this, in more detail.)

                            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                            by tietack on Sun May 06, 2012 at 06:56:38 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  "'Healthy job growth,' whatever that means... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, MichaelNY

                            ... (people do define that number differently) may be different -- and is probably significantly higher -- than the job growth number that's sufficient to ensure a second term for the President."

                            I completely agree. And, believe me, I do not argue that Obama has not faced an immensely difficult task here. That includes the fact that, taking all the stats together, this has been the worst overall downturn in 80 years, globalization and other new factors have made repairs quite a bit harder, Republican obstructionism both in the economic realm and because the GOP wants to stop Obama from succeeding at anything and the very nature of Great Recession (which was partly a consequence of long-standing trends initiated 40 years ago).

                            If we can get enough voters in enough key states to recognize even a few of these factors and can put together the right narrative — especially about how the Republicans were in charge when the recession began and have stood in the way of recovery every step of the way, I think the actual numbers (which will still be grim in November) can be overcome.

                            Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

                            by Meteor Blades on Sun May 06, 2012 at 08:26:33 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That would be good, if they have... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, MichaelNY

                            ...a breakdown like that, I'd love to know what their survey numbers say.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun May 06, 2012 at 08:36:26 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  One more important thing...... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, tietack

                            The key question ultimately is have discouraged workers increased in numbers?  Everything else we've discussed in this subthread is really central to that question, I'm not focused on part-timers or early retirees for their own sake.  So whatever your BLS contacts can share on that issue is what's most helpful.

                            That's really what all this is about, economically.

                            Politically, to me it's a given that the official unemployment rate declining trumps all.  Of course, if it stops declining, the last couple months of declines don't help so much.  But it's politically meaningful to have inched closer to what I think is the psychologically magic number of 7.9.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun May 06, 2012 at 08:59:19 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  discouraged workers (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, tietack, DCCyclone

                            The number of discouraged workers is apparently about the same as a year ago, a little less than 1 million. Much of the movement in the household survey is just random noise, so the actual number could be a few hunded thousand higher or lower. See table A-16 here.

                            http://www.bls.gov/...

                            SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

                            by sacman701 on Sun May 06, 2012 at 11:28:28 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Thanks, unfortunately that table... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            ...is just year-over-year and the BLS release doesn't provide monthly breakdowns.

                            I have to think that can be had somewhere!

                            But if "marginally attached" individuals have been flat over time, including the past couple months, no that's not "good" in that we need them to decrease at some point, but at least it means any drop in official unemployment is real.

                            And I'm very sensitive to statistical noise, there's a gripping insistence even by economists who should know better to treat these numbers as having far more precision than is real.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun May 06, 2012 at 06:54:18 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Again: Household income (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, DCCyclone

                            is apparently more important than the unemployment rate, so that doesn't "trump all."

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun May 06, 2012 at 01:08:45 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Not consciously, no (0+ / 0-)

                            We're talking about two different things.

                            When I talk about the unemployment rate trumping all, I'm talking about what voters consciously take into account in forming their opinions about the state of the economy.

                            When you talk about household income, that's about what people feel in their own lives.  It's not something that matters consciously, hardly any voters at all are even aware that the government measures such a thing called "household income."

                            Over time those things will trend in the same direction and produce the same results.  But they don't have to trend together in a single month or single quarter, thus a reasonable debate about what matters more for short-term numbers.

                            But in a discussion about what matters in economic data that voters knowingly consider, the unemployment rate is the crown jewel.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun May 06, 2012 at 06:58:02 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  What's more important (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            bumiputera

                            is what correlates most closely with election results, not what people knowingly take into account.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun May 06, 2012 at 07:13:45 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

  •  Warren (0+ / 0-)

    What's up with this story about her Native-American ancestry? Seems like another tempest in a teapot to me but I would appreciate any reports from the locals.

    And LOL at Boston Herald which trotted out Joe Trippi of all people to criticize Warren's campaign.

  •  President Clinton endorses... (11+ / 0-)

    Rep. Pascrell. Game over. Story here.

    "I know Bill Pascrell, and he is the fighter we need to support President Obama,” said Clinton. "Bill helped write President Obama’s health care law, he’s a leader protecting and strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and he never stops fighting for the middle class."

    Pascrell backed then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) over Obama in the 2008 presidential primary, while Rothman endorsed Obama.

    Well, thanks for playing, Rep. Rothman! You should have thought twice before endorsing the guy who actually became president!

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:18:18 AM PDT

  •  Now in Ind. teabaggers continue to work to help (9+ / 0-)

    Democrats retain control of the senate.

    Harry Reid once again thanks you.

  •  CA GOP (9+ / 0-)

    Don't call us the party of no, call us the party of yes!

    After years of being labeled the "Party of No" by majority Democrats, California Republican leaders stood under rainy skies Thursday outside the Capitol to dub themselves the "Party of Yes."

    The newly christened party kicked off its campaign by asking for a "no" vote on Gov. Jerry Brown's tax hike. California Republican Party leaders organized the press conference to launch a statewide "whistle-stop tour" just as Brown had finished collecting signatures for his $9 billion tax initiative.

    Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    If the CA GOP wants to be known as the party of yes to denying woman's healthcare, trashing the environment, sticking it to the poor, loving the bankers on Wall Street and the Birthers then by all means call yourselves the "Party of Yes."

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:37:37 AM PDT

  •  WA-01: Daily Kos diarist tries to smear DelBene (9+ / 0-)

    Ugh, this is grody. Some of Suzan DelBene's opponents are falsely claiming DelBene violated federal elections law. On Thursday, a Big Orange diarist (not one of ours) picked up the story and loudly trumpeted it as an ethics problem for the fundraising leader. Well, Publicola did some poking around, and it turns out it's a big pile of steaming bullshit. Story here.

    Link also contains a bit of recruiting news for LD-03, where Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown announced yesterday she will not run for reelection.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:46:39 AM PDT

    •  That's absolutely dumb. (7+ / 0-)

      Boost your candidate, don't harangue another with lies.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 09:49:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I thought it was interesting (0+ / 0-)

      Lisa Brown chose a song to exemplify her career. It's a pretty melancholy one too.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:22:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  But it's Joni Mitchell (0+ / 0-)

        I knew very little about Brown until now, but now I adore her.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 08:41:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  sweet! (4+ / 0-)
      Hot on the heels of news that longtime state senate majority leader Lisa Brown (D-3) is stepping down, liberal state Rep. Andy Billig (D-3, Spokane) announced that he was running for Brown’s seat—with the senator’s blessing. Billig, a minor-league basbeball team owner, is big on scrapping corporate tax breaks.
      sounds like an awesome guy.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:28:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It seems like this guy is out with another (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      response diary today, and declares that the Delbene camp has been a failure in its response.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:24:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have havent read a more biaised piece of garbage (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Inkpen

      in a long time. Could not believe what a pathetic attack it was... It really was just a blatant attack add for Burner. But yeah the endorsements seem to keep coming in for DelBene - While they may not mean much for the general, I can't help but think they will move some votes in the primary.

      But I have to admit their fanatical love for Darcy means that I think she could be very useful for the Dems - just not in WA-01.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:44:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  that Berman ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Minnesota Mike, geoneb

    Lowest production quality I've seen since this Mr. Show ad (NSFW):

  •  California's an open primary (7+ / 0-)

    maybe he's outright trying to appeal to Republican votes?

    How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August

    by gabjoh on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:12:39 AM PDT

    •  Ding ding ding. (4+ / 0-)

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:16:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's what he's trying to do (6+ / 0-)

      Republicans voters are more inclined to vote for Sherman. He's probably trying hard to break through in places like Chatsworth, Granada Hills, Porter Ranch, West Hills and to a lesser extent, Woodland Hills, where most of the valley Republicans are.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:29:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't agree, Berman is targeting Republicans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        as this ad shows.  I think GOP voters are more inclined to support him as he is an establishment, status quo guy, who also has zero statewide options.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:46:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is this because of the Jungle primary type format (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

          is he worried about getting to second place in the primary so wants to siphon off some republicans who know their guy wont make the general competitive?

          Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

          by CF of Aus on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:48:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Partly I suppose (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gabjoh

            But I think they both assume they will make top 2, and Berman seems to be courting the 25% republican block of voters for the fall.

            And in a race like this I assume the vast majority of GOP voters who vote for either Sherman or Berman in June will vote for the same dude in the fall.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 04:13:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  the difference is that in June (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

                the GOP voters have three Republicans to vote for. It isn't GOP voters for Sherman that Berman is trying to get but the Mark Reed and Susan Shelley voters who will have to choose one of the Dems in November (or abstain in that race).

                   I still think the best result would be for Reed (the strongest GOP candidate) to get into the runoff. Then the race would be over in June. Berman should have retired; instead we are stuck with this ridiculously expensive and divisive race.  And, yeah, that Berman ad is embarrassingly bad. Howard is supposed to be the Congressman from Hollywood (the industry, not the neighborhood) but the talent of the industry is not being used on his commercials (other than Betty White, lol).

              Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 53, new CA-30

              by Zack from the SFV on Fri May 04, 2012 at 04:39:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  CA-15, CA-30 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    When will the Campaign for Primary Accountability get involved in these two races?

    Obama/Biden 2012: Keep America moving forward not backwards.

    by ehstronghold on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:24:57 AM PDT

    •  who knows if they will (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      it's CA, after all, a super expensive state. Even if they do, though, it's still a bit too early. I'd wait another two weeks or so.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:33:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe after the primary they'll do CA-15 (5+ / 0-)

      The odds of them keeping keeping Stark out of the top two are almost none, and Swalwell should easily make it as well (the only other candidate is an underfunded conservative independent, so the GOP vote shouldn't be united enough to get him to the general).  If The Campaign for Primary Accointability wants to get the most bang for their buck, they'll target Stark after the June primary.

      If they wanted to do CA-30 (big if) I assume they'd do the same thing.  I don't know if they'd oppose the long-serving Berman in favor of the somewhat long-serving Sherman, but they've done stranger things.

      22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

      by Jeff Singer on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:40:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-Sen: Warner leads McDonnell 51-40%. (7+ / 0-)
    -Virginia mirrors most of the country when it comes to legal rights for same sex couples- it's opposed to gay marriage but supports civil unions. 50% of voters think gay marriage should be illegal to only 41% who believe it should be legal. But when you add civil unions into the mix 65% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 32% who think there should be none. We see the same massive generational divide on this stuff here that we do everywhere- voters under 30 support gay marriage 58/42, while those over 65 oppose it by a 58/27 margin.

    -Democrats lead Virginia's generic Congressional ballot 47-38. We found earlier in the week that Eric Cantor's favorability in the state was 27/41 and it seems possible these two findings are related.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:24:59 AM PDT

  •  MI-7: Schwarz not running (5+ / 0-)

    When I first heard about Schwarz running as a Dem, I had a feeling he wouldn't run.  It's really annoying that he dragged out the decision.

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  OT: MCA from the Beastie Boys has died. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Apparently from cancer... very bummed :-

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:41:05 AM PDT

  •  CA-26: House Majority PAC is airing this (5+ / 0-)

    ad for Julia Brownley.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:43:01 AM PDT

    •  Bit of a visual assault (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, dc1000, MichaelNY

      All the shifting and moving white lines make me feel a bit seasick.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:44:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  But what's her favorite ice cream? (11+ / 0-)

      The voters of Ventura County need to know. The contrast with rocky road (Linda Parks) is a critical factor in that decision.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:54:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ventura voters will like Parks commercial more (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        than this one.  Tester made a similar statement about his wife's cooking but didn't catch crap for it.

        Parks commerical, including the Rocky road reference are what may lead to her making top two here.  These slick pile of bullshit ads do not play on the central coast, especially Ventura, where the people are sophistcated but laid back.  They don't live in LA because they don't want to.  They want to live where people don't act like pompous douches.

        Folksy plays in Ventura and Montana.  Slick pablum might be good for NY, but is not what people around Ventura (or Montana) want.  They want someone who is not an asshole, and who more or less has the same views.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:05:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tester v. Parks (3+ / 0-)

          Tester integrated the comment about his wife's cooking into his commercial much better than Parks did. Her comment was just out of nowhere. It's not like we're anti-food-in-commercials.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:13:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This is why free for all run-off elections (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          are bad; they eliminate the ability of parties to have a choice, as eventually in order to not lose seats candidacy has to be a backroom thing. In the long run given the lack of Republican candidates and officials seeking promotion, this is going to hurt Democrats a lot if they don't change that stupid law.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:23:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, it's a huge boon to Democrats (0+ / 0-)

            And to progressives especially.  We have a chance to get a real progressive in Ca-02 instead of another corporate Dem.  We have a chance to eliminate Mr Cranky Stark.    We will lose the awful Richardson.  And in ventura, it is extremely unlikely Strickland will win the seat.

            Top 2 in a Republican state would be bad partisan-wise, but it is great in a democratic state... especially one full of hacks who have been in office a thousand years.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:28:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  because of redistricting (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              some of that would have happened anyway.

              Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

              by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:31:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  There's a real risk (0+ / 0-)

              Two Republicans will be in the run off in Gallegy's seat.

              CA-02...are you calling Lynn Woolsey a corporatist Democrat?

              This is bad for Democrats. It will discourage primaries in the future in many more swingish districts, where Democrats have 3-4 good candidates compared to one for Republicans.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:42:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Parks is an indy, a former Dem, and a former Rep (0+ / 0-)

                and she'd be to the left of a many House Dems.

                Yes, there is a chance for a decalred Dem to not make top two in a close district, but that only occurs when no strong Dem runs... and just as obviously two Dems could make it just as easily in a close district.  That's no argument.  It just means we can't run shitty candidates.

                Woolsey isn't running.

                It encourages primaries where the current Dem is horrible.  Top two is all about "better democrats", and it prevents spoilers.

                And more to the point, if Parks ran as a Dem, she'd win.  She's just a weaker Angus King.  If she makes top 2, she wins.  If instead there was some other generic Republican running, there would be no issue here.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:52:06 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I think Lawson (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, Zack from the SFV

                is the corporatist? I'm not sure.  I'd assume he didn't mean Woolsey.

                Richardson was due to redistricting, not Top Two.

                But Stark losing, if he does, is completely due to Top Two, I bet.

                19, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. -.5.38, -3.23 Check out my blog at politicohen.com

                by jncca on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:55:00 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, Lawson (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, bumiputera

                  wouldn't have exactly dominated a Democratic primary. If anything this is giving her a better shot at going to a one on one race in November, because she's getting a lot of independents and Republicans to back her as well as some conservative Democrats.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:09:04 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's a mistake (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      to highlight the "Democrat" part too much. Not that she should run away from her party label obviously, but I'd wager that her biggest fear right now is losing DTS voters to Parks, not Democrats.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:58:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't Brownley need to box out (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Park from taking any Democratic support? Are there even enough DTS voters for Park to get the top-two spot?

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:04:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree, she has to say Democrat over and over (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Brownley needs to get half the Dems, then she makes top two regardless of what anyone else does.

        She should stencil Democrat on her forehead.  At this point, that's her only shot at top two because she is mostly unknown in the district while most people know Parks and Strickland.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:09:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good production values anyways. (0+ / 0-)

      People are right to call it a bit vague, but again, this is a case of where it doesn't have to be fantastic, just passable. All she has to do is consolidate Democratic support and being on the air alone should do that.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:32:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A spot with Brownley talking would've been better (3+ / 0-)

      Of course, it is a PAC ad and they only talk up candidates, but Brownley has the cash to go up on the air and run an ad where she is speaking to voters.

      A Spanish language ad in Oxnard would be helpful, too, there is a Spanish-speaking station in Camarillo where time would be cheap and reach a lot of Hispanic voters in El Rio and Oxnard. Those are the Democrats she's got to really work to get, ones that may vote for Herrera based on local reasons.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Fri May 04, 2012 at 01:54:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CT-Sen: Entertaining Shays interview (17+ / 0-)

    My father pointed me to this remarkable enough interview Chris Shays did on local public radio.  While he was articulate enough at many points, there were a couple of remarkable moments:

    1. In response to a caller asking, basically, how Shays could justify having been a Conscientious Objector during Vietnam but voted for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ("you don't get to pick and choose which wars are good wars"), Shays actually responded with:

    I happen to, in my own personal life, be pro-life, not pro-choice, but I believe that every person should decide that for themselves.  I didn't take away someone's right to be a conscientious objector in Iraq or Afghanistan or anywhere else.

    [...]

    [When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait] I wrestled with the fact that, I don't believe in war, I don't believe in killing--though I am for the death penalty--so welcome to a kind of change in my attitude.  And that developed over the last twenty years.

    Who the hell voluntarily brings up abortion--especially a Republican in a blue state--in their response to a question about another divisive issue?  And then also brings up the death penalty?  And does this analogy make any sense at all?  

    Even the moderator was apparently thrown for a loop, and asked him later if he would vote pro-life or pro-choice.  Shays, perhaps understandably, said he had a long pro-choice voting record, and the moderator was like "you also said a lot of things have changed in your mind, just now, over the course of twenty years!  You just said that!"  It's almost like a comedy

    2. In response to a question about the Affordable Care Act, Shays said he'd repeal it, then "then listed off the things he likes about the ACA" as the article says, then some criticisms, then it eventually ended with this exchange:

    Shays: You call it the Affordable Health Care Act?  There's nothing affordable about it.

    Moderator (sounding somewhat uncontrollably annoyed): I didn't call it, I mean, that's what it's called.

    3. But by far--by far--the worst part, which was when I stopped listening in disgust, was when he was reminiscing about the economic crash, and made something like this aside:
    Shays: Darien, the center of my district.
    Now you listen to me, Shays.  Fairfield County is the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk metro area.  Or maybe Greater Bridgeport,  or the Bridgeport-Stamford NECTA since we don't have Danbury and so on.

    But one thing CT-04 is not, and never will be, is goddamn Darien-centered.  Darien has many things--"four country clubs, a hunt club, and two yacht clubs", a notorious history as an anti-Semitic "sundown town", a median household income of $160,000, and a population that voted 2-1 for Linda McMahon.  But one thing it does not have is the economic, cultural, or geographic center of Connecticut's Fourth District.  You so-called Representative.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 10:43:13 AM PDT

  •  NM-01: Is it just me, or did (0+ / 0-)

    anybody else find that ad incredibly stupid?

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:11:13 AM PDT

  •  NM-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Word is the buy is only cable...

  •  NJ-10: Menendez endorsed Payne Jr. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:42:58 AM PDT

  •  AZ-09: Twitter edition (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    "Got a chuckle out of the @kyrstensinema email "Is his name Cherny or Cheney?" attacking @AndreiCherny."

    Anybody have that e-mail?

    Also, Vernon Parker is apparently running on the Republican side, but he raised basically nothing, so I didn't even notice.  

    And new user EyeOnAZ09 pointed me to their diary on Cherny's old ads from the State Assembly race.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:44:34 AM PDT

    •  Here, I hope this doesn't violate anything! (6+ / 0-)

      The e-mail was from Sam Coppersmith.

      We all saw Tea Party Republicans launch false, negative attacks against President Obama and Democrats around the country last cycle.  But now we’re now seeing the same nonsense coming from someone running as a Democrat.

      Incredibly, it’s 2012, and Andrei Cherny is attacking Kyrsten Sinema for opposing George W. Bush's wars.  I’ve heard of triangulation, but that’s ridiculous.  Is his name Andrei Cherny—or Dick Cheney?

      Even worse, he is pretending that her opposition to the Bush wars means she wouldn't fight Al Qaeda. This is typical Republican trash talk from someone who is desperate to get elected. You’ll probably hear lies like that used against President Obama this fall—but did you expect to hear them from a Democrat?

      When Cherny ran for office in California, his attacks were called “really dirty politics,” “blatant race-baiting," “patently false” and “despicable.”  Cherny’s running for office in Arizona this year, but his dirty politics hasn’t changed.  Now, his ‘win-at-all-costs’ campaign is launching false attacks against Sinema.

      Here are some facts:

          * Sinema supported military action against Al Qaeda, and continues to do so.
          * Sinema was against going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan.  She was right—and Cherny is the kind of “Democrat” who would have given George W. Bush a blank check.
          * Invading a country and mounting a military attack on a terrorist group are not the same thing.  For example, US Navy Seals successfully attacked Osama Bin Laden without invading and occupying the nation of Pakistan.

      You’d think a well-connected insider like Cherny would understand facts like these, but his record is clear: Cherny is more interested in false campaign attacks than he is in telling the truth or getting things done for middle class Arizona families. Amazingly, Cherny’s attacks make it clear he supports the Bush-Cheney decision to invade Iraq!  That’s what happens when your only “value” is getting yourself elected—to something or other, in some state or other.

      Unlike Cherny, Kyrsten Sinema has a record of bringing people together to get things done for Arizona families. The Arizona Republic called her the Senator who “most often opposed” Russell Pearce. Last year, the legislature passed Sinema’s bill to help military spouses quickly find work when their family is stationed in Arizona. That’s her record: delivering results for families.

      It's quite a difference.

      Middle class Arizonans want solutions to our nation’s problems, not more of Cherny’s dishonest distortions.  If you want to stop Cherny’s false attacks, support our campaign today and then forward this email to your friends and family and urge them to do the same.

      Thank you.
      Sam Coppersmith
      Campaign Chair

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:47:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Paradise Valley? (0+ / 0-)

      Parker's city is in AZ-06, I think.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:11:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Okay, yeah, I could definitely see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        marinating a chicken in that.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections

        by James L on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:15:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The population is, but there must be a tiny bit (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        in AZ-09 (unpopulated), judging by the AZ Redistricting Commission's components report.  Perhaps I should have mentioned that distinction in my diary, as Cherny had a few Paradise Valley donors--but, assuming they live where they donated from, they don't live in AZ-09.

        Still, any disingenuousness I might have shown pales in comparison to this: Cherny's campaign manager Seth Scott, bragging on Twitter that

        Despite @azcentral's reporting, more than 2/3 of @andreicherny's donations from AZ. Would have led pack without a dime from CA.
        If anyone wants to Tweet my diary at him, I won't mind...

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:17:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The AZ Central article he's referring to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          might have been this one (which I haven't seen before, I don't think.)  It mentions Cherny's strength in non-AZ-09 parts of the state, and his reliance on out-of-state donors, but not his reliance on large donors--greater than Sinema's reliance, I think.

          But the money race may be less one-sided than it initially appears.

          On the one hand, Cherny did well with Arizona residents.

          Among disclosed donors (those who gave $200 or more), Cherny collected $181,000 from Arizonans. That’s more than Sinema took in from all disclosed individuals. She received $121,000 from in-state donors whose names are disclosed. Schapira raised $93,000 from such donors.

          Cherny’s Arizona money came from 262 contributions, while Sinema reported 258. Schapira reported 121.

          But the biggest portion of Cherny’s disclosed in-state money came from Tucson, which is outside the newly drawn 9th District. Tucson donors sent Cherny more than $55,000. Sinema collected $18,000 there and Schapira took in $2,000.

          The story is different, however, when one looks at disclosed donors from the heart of the new district: Chandler, Mesa, Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tempe.

          Cherny raised about $89,000 in 150 contributions from residents of those cities. Sinema took in $93,000 from 204 contributions. Schapira had $77,000 from 100 contributions.

          Where Cherny really separated from his Democratic competitors was money from out-of-state donors. Cherny raised $215,000 from non-Arizona individuals, $93,000 of it from California.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:23:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  So how would folks rate the Murdock-Donnelly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    race?

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:46:05 AM PDT

  •  Central Oregon (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14, supercereal

    Photobucket

    I also did Umatilla County, but since neither Kerry nor Obama won a single precinct there (though Obama came close in several, and tied one), its not so interesting.  Suffice it to say that our best precincts there are on the Indian reservation and in the heavily Hispanic parts of Hermiston and downtown Pendleton.

    The image is of Jefferson County (above) and Deschutes County (below), with Crook County on the right, which I don't have precinct data for.

    Obama actually narrowly won in the main Madras precincts in Jefferson County, winning one narrowly by more than he lost the other by.  The dark blue area in the west of Jefferson County is the Warm Springs Reservation, while the area south of that is Camp Sherman, which both Obama and Kerry narrowly carried.  Warm Springs crosses the county border in the north into Wasco, helping make Wasco an R+1 county, and also into Clackamas County, but I don't know if anyone actually lives in that part of it.  The rest of Jefferson County, outside of Culver (the pink area south of Madras), is pretty deep red.

    Deschutes County is home of the biggest city east of the Cascades, Bend, but also Redmond, Sunriver, La Pine, Sisters, and other places where people live and vacation.  Central and downtown Bend are very Democratic, but so is western Bend, and in the more conservative parts of northern, southern, and eastern Bend, Obama greatly outperformed Kerry.  Western Bend seems more tied into the recreational economy of the area, and even a rural precinct west of Bend, stretching all the way out to the county line, leans Democratic, but not enough to shift the massive census block on this map to being blue.  This area is home to ski and golf resorts, and in fact Black Butte Ranch, one such resort (in the far NW), was narrowly won by Obama.  And while both Kerry and Obama lost the city of Sisters, Obama outperformed Kerry by more than 10 points and got over 48%.  With the combination of trends in Bend and other parts of Deschutes County, and our small pockets of strength in Jefferson County, Democrats could put together some interesting legislative districts in the future that could bring us more victories there.  In other parts of the county, though, like Redmond and La Pine, we still get crushed.  In fact, the furthest southeast precinct gave John Kerry 0% of the vote, and Barack Obama less than 10%.

    We currently hold 0 legislative districts here, but won the Bend-based house district in 2008, and lost it in 2010.  Redistricting boosted it to a roughly D+4 district, so we have a good chance to take it back, especially with a local guy who has been on, IIRC, the planning commission, and is an instructor at the community college there as our candidate.

    Other basics about Deschutes County: I believe it grew roughly 40% in the last decade, and Obama lost it by only like 250 votes, while Kerry lost it by about 10,600.  He got 49% to Kerry's 42%.  Jefferson County is not really growing, and Obama got 44% to Kerry's 40%.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:54:49 AM PDT

  •  NY-25: Dems Give Brooks the "Ducking" Issues Award (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    http://www.capitaltonight.com/...

    The award itself looks adorable. While I tend to hate these cutesy ploys, I think this is a powerful line of attack. Brooks wants to rely on her personal popularity in the district without talking about national issues. She knows stating stances will probably hurt her so the less issues are discussed the better. We need to make sure the voters know that the race isn't about what Brooks has done but what she will do.

    M, 22, School: MI-12(new) (Old MI-15), Home: NY-18 (new) (Old NY-19)

    by slacks on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:08:18 PM PDT

    •  The only proper way to respond to this... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, skibum59, MichaelNY

      Is to accept the award, insist on doing so at a public ceremony in a school auditorium or local theater or something, then do a televised question-and-answer session on the spot.

      But that would never happen, unless the recipient of the award was President Barack Obama.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:41:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Minority Voter Registration declines (9+ / 0-)

    The Washington Post has an article on how the number of Black and Hispanic registered voters has declined since 2008, and I have seen a couple of pundits getting all worked up about how this is terrible news for the Obama Campaign but they neglect to mention that the Number of registered White voters has declined more (Hispanics plus Blacks down 2% nationwide, Whites down 6%). It is normal at this time of an election cycle for the voter rolls to shrink as people who have moved or died are purged. Plus I am not buying some of the stats in the article, they claim the number of registered Hispanics in Florida has dropped 10%, but on the states election Website it shows the number of active registered Hispanics has increased slightly between the 2008 election and this January while the number of active registered white voters has dropped by over 100,000.

  •  IN-09: This is why I voted for Shelli Yoder. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    She's a great person and has run a great campaign. She may not win the primary or the general election, but I feel good about my vote.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:17:54 PM PDT

    •  I have gotten two mailers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      from her this week. She must have gotten some influx of late cash.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 01:17:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've got mailers out the ying yang (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Two for George and Yoder, and surprisingly just one for Winningham. This is in about a week's time. Also got a few for Lugar, including the one in the digest earlier this week.

        Oh hell. Just don't support Robert Winningham in Indiana's 9th Congressional District

        by drhoosierdem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:09:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Do you have any predicts for local offices? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm thinking Gerdon, Wolfe and Coffman for County Council. Then Kincaid for State Rep.

        Oh hell. Just don't support Robert Winningham in Indiana's 9th Congressional District

        by drhoosierdem on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:12:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I noticed someone (0+ / 0-)

        posted her NWPC endorsement. She's starting to get someone attention outside of the district.

        Also found a list of her current endorsements:

        National Women’s Political Caucus

        Mark Kruzan, Mayor of Bloomington

        Mike Jones, Former Chair of Indiana 9th District Democrats (1988-2011)

        Viola J. Taliaferro, Monroe County Circuit-Court Judge (retired)

        Darrell Mills, Sheriff of Floyd County

        Jan Hardy, Clerk/Treasurer for Scottsburg

        Sam Locke, Former Chair of Indiana 9th District Young Democrats

        Claude Combs, Sheriff of Washington County

        Pedro Roman, President of Indiana Latino Democratic Caucus

        Charlotte Zietlow, Former Monroe County Commissioner

        Jean Breaux, Indiana State Senator

        Bill Sears, Former aide to Congressman Lee Hamilton and small business owner

        Regina Moore, Clerk for Bloomington

        Warren Henegar, Monroe County Council Member-at-Large and cattle farmer

        Indiana High School Democrats

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:01:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PDX mayor- the money (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, supercereal
    The data show 73% of Brady’s funds are from contributions of $1000 and up, compared to 71% for Hales and 52% for Smith. On the small donor side, Smith gets 23% of his funds from contributions of $100 or less, while Hales gets 9% from such contributions and Brady 7%. Thompson estimates Brady has a total of 2182 contributors, Hales 1433, and Smith 2259.

        ‎"Most [77%] of the double giving involves contributions from one donor to both Brady and Hales. This trend is troubling given that the contributions seem to be more about ensuring future access than dedicated support for one candidate.” [9% was money given to all three, 7% to Brady/Smith, 7% to Hales/Smith].

    link

    reinforcing my belief that there's little substantial difference between Brady and Hales.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:35:36 PM PDT

  •  CA30 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV
    The ad actually touts an endorsement for Berman from GOP Rep. Darrell Issa! (Yes, this actually happened, though it's a bit fakey since there are no Republicans in the race.)
    there's 3 Dems and 3 Republicans on the 7 candidate ballot.

    If there was one Republican, there'd be a reasonable shot that the Republican could outpoll one of the Democrats (the last Sherman internal had Berman at 17% with the Republicans combining for 21%, but the top Republican at 12%).

    Top-two in California should be a bit more interesting than Washington because California has more one-party dominant areas and Washington is pretty much guaranteed a D v. R matchup in the general election if Ds and Rs file outside of Seattle and very-rural Washington.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri May 04, 2012 at 12:48:32 PM PDT

  •  Another Interesting Story Coming from AZ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Have you guys seen this? I'm a new diarist, covering AZ09. Story broke yesterday that an Arizona Democrat sent out racist mailers in a previous race, and is refusing to admit it was wrong.

    I know it's AZ, but we can't let a Democrat like this win, can we? Am I overreacting? What are your thoughts?

    Read the full story on my inaugural post!

  •  Got my early voting ballot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    in the mail today.  I didn't realize that Chuck Hassebrook was still going to be on the ballot (as well as 3 other some-dudes I never heard of).  Hopefully that won't lead to a poor showing for Kerrey.  

    26, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:10:23 PM PDT

  •  What do you guys think of the "Halo effect"? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Apperently some Democrats are worried that the release of Halo 4 being the same day as election day will drive down younger voter turnout and hurt Democrat's chances in November.
    http://www.abcactionnews.com/....

    I can't imagen that alot of politically motivated people would skip voting because they stood in line all night at Gamestop to get the game. The ones who would skip voting probably wouldn't vote or find any little excuse not to anyhow.

    Age 24, WA-3, Republican, Conservative, Romney Supporter, elected PCO, engaged.

    by KyleinWA on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:14:48 PM PDT

  •  Cherny comes of horribly (4+ / 0-)

    Frankly, he appears like a privileged Ivy League insider who plays politics and bounces around finding positions voters like to fill his own ambitions, and then leaves in the party politics and is offended to find that local voters have their own candidates that they want to support and gets nasty. I hope Sen Shapira wins, he's the strongest Democratic candidate.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:34:50 PM PDT

    •  I don't know if Democrats need a very strong (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      candidate--rather, The Republican field is not super-impressive to me, it's probably a D+ seat accounting for McCain, the filing deadline's around the corner, and all three Democrats are non-Some-Dudes.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:00:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  For example (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Democrats have a 51% "Index 2" competitiveness index score in AZ-09, which is an average of 2008 and 2010 statewide results.  The only 2008 statewide race was the Presidential one, where Obama also got 51% here.  That means that Democratic statewide candidates got an average of 51% in this district in 2010, even as they almost all got slaughtered statewide.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:06:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  2010 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Dems lost the 7 statewide races by an average of 13 points in 2010, so that year the district was D+7.5 relative to the state. Obama lost the state by 8.5, so then it was about D+5 relative to the state. The state as a whole has usually been about R+4 and is probably still close to that, although if Dems organize well they could probably knock it down to R+3 or so. I would guess that the district will be somewhere between D+2 and D+4 (relative to the nation, not AZ) in 2012. Lean D.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:56:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Schapira may be the weakest (0+ / 0-)

      He's raised the least money and gotten the fewest endorsements, and I'm not sure that having Grijalva's endorsement in the primary helps him much for the general. Cherny is the best fit for the district (which is not economically liberal) on paper, although I suspect as many on this board do that he could rub a lot of voters the wrong way. Even leaving that aside, Schapira looks weaker to me than Sinema does. He's about as liberal as she is but doesn't seem to have her charisma or intellect. (Not that he's dumb, but Sinema is freakishly smart, she graduated from BYU at 18.) Sinema has some arguable trouble spots in that she voted for Nader in 2000, gets along ok with Russell Pearce, and is openly bisexual, but I think she's smooth and should be able to put to rest any concerns about that stuff.

      I think Dems are favored here but this district is probably only about D+2 or D+3.  Any of the 3 Dems could potentially lose the general, but I think Schapira may be most at risk.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:43:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Uh, Schapira has the most endorsements. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

        He may have raised the least amount of money, but that is because he kept his job in the AZ leg, rather than quitting to raise money.

        To your other point, Schapira has the most endorsement, in fact, it's not even close. http://www.davidforaz.com/...

      •  Cherny is highly unpalatable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Especially given his silly DNC pandering days where he talked about partially privatizing social security, and the fact he has no roots the district and is raising money through his national connections.

        I don't really want a candidate who gets along with Russell Pearce. Period.

        But mainly, Schapira represents the more Republican Senate district, and was reelected in 2010. He's a but more moderate than Sinema, a good campaigner, and a bright guy.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 05:07:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So because someone can actually hold (2+ / 0-)

          a conversation with someone they completely disagree with, that means they aren't a real Democrat? Sinema's philosophy (she wrote a book on it) is about developing relationships, even with people you disagree with, to get at least some of things you want done. It's just good politics.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:33:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There was something that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            popped elsewhere a while back where Sinema defended him over something, but the man is so racist I don't know how he's allowed to be a national spokesman for any movement.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Sat May 05, 2012 at 04:44:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  honestly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          I kind of agree with you, but he comes off to me as less likeable than Sinema.  And I originally had a pretty bad impression of her, which some people here might recall.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:40:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I just can't worry too much about AZ-09 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        when the Republican Party of Arizona is fielding a bunch of Some Dudes (plus Vernon Parker, who raised all of $30,000 so far)--not that Some Dudes can't win, exactly, but it doesn't speak to local Republican confidence in their ability to contest this seat.  If John McComish was running, that'd be one thing (well, it'd be a few things--great news for AZ Legislative Democrats, as well).  

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:34:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Martin Sepulveda is a former Chandler Councillor, so he's not a Some Dude, but he also raised the non-intimidating sum of $65,000.  

        Maybe he's Bob Turner to Schapira or Sinema's David Weprin, but I doubt it (for one thing, NY-09 was trending Republican, and AZ-09 seems to be trending Democratic).

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:36:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  hmm (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Sepulveda's resume is impressive, but his issues page has nothing but right-wing boilerplate. I don't think that being rigidly anti-abortion and wanting to use the military to patrol the Mexican border will go over too well in a Dem-leaning district.

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:01:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Wow, those old Cherny mailers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kleinburger, MichaelNY

    are Sharron Angle league stuff!

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri May 04, 2012 at 02:43:16 PM PDT

  •  AZ-9: Some damaging stuff (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    I had read that Cherny has run in that Assembly district, but I never knew about this, it's very over the line. That was back when the valley secession had just moved off the front burner and Cherny was clearly playing toward some of the social and racial divisions that have been prevalent between the valley and city proper from time to time.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri May 04, 2012 at 03:55:21 PM PDT

  •  Not sure if this has been pointed out yet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    And I don't want to comb through the comments to find out (sorry, lazy), but:

    • Virginia's next gubernatorial election is in 2013, not 2014
    • All of the linked videos you have are linked to the wrong bullet point

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 06:56:47 PM PDT

  •  Also (sorry for double post): ME-Sen (3+ / 0-)

    Angus King (I!-ME!) has announced his Campaign Co-Chairs, and as you'd expect, he chose three Democrats, three Republicans, and three Independents.

    Democrats:

    • Michael Saxl, former Speaker of the House
    • Judy Paradis, former state Sen. and state Rep.
    • Barbara Trafton, former state Sen. and state Rep.

    Republicans:

    • Sue Bell, former state Rep.
    • Jim Libby, former state Sen. and state Rep.
    • Matt Jacobson, unsuccessful gubernatorial candidate, 2010

    and the Independents:

    • Eliot Cutler, 2010 gubernatorial runner-up
    • Sherry Huber, former state Rep. who also ran for Governor in 1986
    • Richard Woodbury, State Senator

    Not sure if it's telling that only one current legislator is a member of his team, it's either they don't like King or he doesn't want them.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri May 04, 2012 at 07:07:12 PM PDT

  •  MI-7: A New (and more serious) Challenger (6+ / 0-)

    Tim Walberg gets an actual and serious challenge in MI-7:

    SUMMIT TWP. -- Jackson County Democratic Party Chairman Ruben Marquez announced Friday he is seeking the seat in Congress now held by Tipton Republican Tim Walberg.

    Marquez's announcement came on the same day that former Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz announced he decided not to run as a Democrat to seek the 7th Congressional District seat.

    Marquez, 53, is a laser technician for Eaton Corp. of Jackson.

    He said many people have told him they are tired of elected officials who push for legislation that hurts working people.

    Still a long-shot, but still prominent enough a challenger to make what was to be a run-away look interesting.
  •  Awesome Majority PAC ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Hard to argue with Kaine's record as governor, especially stacked against Allen's dismal tenure in the United States Senate.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 04, 2012 at 11:25:21 PM PDT

  •  lol, so Jesse Kelly supports socialism? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, kleinburger

    After all, that's what Social Security and Medicare are. Since Republicans claim to support those programs, why can't we get them on the defensive regarding universal single-payer health care?

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