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2011 protest
2011 protest
Marquette Univ. Law School. 4/26-29. Likely voters. MoE ±3.8% (±4.27% for Democratic primary sample). (3/22-25 in parentheses, registered voters):
Tom Barrett (D): 47 (45)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 48 (47)

Kathleen Falk (D): 43 (45)
Scott Walker (R-inc): 49 (49)

Tom Barrett (D): 38 (36)
Kathleen Falk (D): 20 (29)
Doug La Follette (D): 8 (8)
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 7 (8)
Undecided: 27 (17)
The Wisconsin gubernatorial recall will be upon us sooner than you think: the main event is on June 5. Before that, though, the Democrats have to pick a candidate who'll go up against GOP Gov. Scott Walker, and that special recall primary is only a week away, on May 8. So today's poll from Marquette Univ. Law School may be the last poll we see before we have a nominee and the truncated run up to the June recall begins.

The nomination is looking quite likely that it'll go to Tom Barrett, a former U.S. representative who is now Milwaukee's mayor and also narrowly lost the regularly scheduled 2010 election to Walker. In polls where he's been included (he got something of a late start to the race), he's always led over his closest rival, former Dane Co. Executive Kathleen Falk, though not always by as large a margin as the 18 points seen here. The puzzle here may be why the share of undecideds in the primary went up so much in the last month. Bear in mind that, since their last poll, they've switched from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, seeing as how the election is so close. That still doesn't explain, though, why likely voters are much more undecided than registered voters (among registered voters, with leaners pushed, it's 45 Barrett, 23 Falk, 8 La Follette, 8 Vinehout, and 19 undecided), as people who are more committed to voting are often more committed to a particular candidate.

As for the June election, it's still a paper-thin lead for Walker over Barrett, with a slightly larger lead for Walker over Falk. Again, the switch to a likely voter model makes a difference here: not a big one, but in a game of inches, an important one. Among RVs, Barrett actually leads Walker, 47-46. (Falk trails Walker 49-42.) That falloff between likely and registered voters show that the Republicans still have a small edge on the enthusiasm gap here, or at least better follow-through on getting their partisans to commit to turning out. If Barrett is going to pull this out, it'll be through closing that small gap and finding and converting Democratic unlikely voters into actual voters. In other words, Democratic GOTV efforts will be absolutely critical.

If you just went by fundraising reports, you might be surprised to see the race as close as it is: Scott Walker's campaign reported yesterday that they've raised $13.5 million since January and are still sitting on $4.9 million cash on hand (meaning he's burned through $8.6 million trying to stay alive). That compares with $832K raised by Barrett and $977K raised by Falk (although there's been considerable anti-Walker spending by unions as well). That huge spending on Walker's side doesn't seem to have moved the needle much over the months, though; for the most part, people have had their minds made up about this race for the last year, and the race to the finish line is going to be less about persuading what few swing voters remain and more about maximizing turnout among the two parties' bases.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed May 02, 2012 at 12:27 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  If every person who signed a petition votes (14+ / 0-)

    Barrett will win.  

    Barrett should make that his closing statement ad - "Over the winder a million of you took time to sign a petition, now I need every one of you to vote to finish what you've help start".  

    •  YES! 900K people's (8+ / 0-)

      Signatures were accepted. It's probably not possible to get 100% turnout from this group as a small percentage have either moved or passed away. But 95% of those people are probably still in the state or in the case of some college students who are either back home or living in other states for internships make sure they vote via absentee ballots. If you can get every eligible voter who signed that petition to turn out, Barrett should win.

      •  Well, then there are all the folks who didn't sign (5+ / 0-)

        because they just didn't have the opportunity or they just don't like signing petitions.
           And those who've gotten pissed at Gov. Wanker since. Like women who believe in equal pay for equal work.
           And then there's the John Doe investigation which Barrett has already started to hammer Scotty on.

        "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

        by elwior on Wed May 02, 2012 at 05:53:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do remember... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...that some people (like me) sign petitions for things that they don't intend to vote for - perhaps on the theory (as in my case) that I want the people to exercise their will on a topic/candidate. If the candidate survives recall, they can emerge more effective as the people have affirmed their agenda. If the candidate doesn't survive recall, the winner has a mandate. I think both are can be good for government (at least in some cases).

          Also, not everyone who signed a petition to recall may decide that the alternative that they are offered is superior to the current officeholder. The act of signing a petition can be "I don't like that guy much" but the act of voting can be "I don't like the original guy much, but I like the alternative less".

          That said, I would guess that the vast majority of the petition signers would vote to recall and replace in this case.

          •  I would say that (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Cream City, Monitor78, elwior

            The percentage of voters who fall into that category are so minuscule that they are almost irrelevant. I would say that at least 95% and probably close to 98-99% of the people who signed the petition did so because they oppose Walker's policies. And those that signed the petition but don't vote it's because they forgot, didn't know there was an election, moved out of state, are out of state during the election and didn't get an absentee ballot, or they passed away in the past few months.

  •  Have the polls factored in corporations who vote (9+ / 0-)

    for Walker, because you know...

  •  The unions have to smell the coffee (22+ / 0-)

    It's going to be Barrett.  They should be focusing 100% of the fire at Walker, and propping up Barrett.

    When the other side has a huge finacial edge, you can't go around wasting what you got and dissing your own candidate.

    This race could be decided by a handful of votes.  It's time to get serious and forget the vanity candidates and the relatively minor sins, and focus everything on the real problem.  If the unions don't get themselves under control, and Walker wins by 1000 votes, they only have themselves to blame.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Wed May 02, 2012 at 12:41:23 PM PDT

    •  Agreed, agreed, agreed! (5+ / 0-)

      A Madison shock jock who keeps flacking for Falk went beyond the pale again today about Barrett, and these attacks by a so-called "liberal" shock jock and his ilk have got to stop.  That stuff is being taped by Walker's minions, you can bet, to bet turned against Barrett -- against us -- a week from now.  Same for a few bloggers who have gone too far in their fandom for their candidate.

      I appreciate the candidates who have stayed above board and have focused on Walker as the enemy, not on another Dem.  And I hope that at least some will stand up and say that it's time to start unifying now -- because we have so little time.

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:21:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yep. (5+ / 0-)

      At this point, the polls speak.  It's not like Barrett and Falk are within tenths of a percentage point of each other.  Barrett is clearly our best chance to win this.

      And I really wish that Falk would bow out, and the the unions would realize that it's all about  ANYBODY BUT WALKER.

      •  We know that! Barrett will learn just how many (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, cks175, TofG

        Falk voters he NEEDS to win now and when he runs for re-election in 2014.  When he understands that, he will be a more progressive governor because of it.

        "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

        by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 07:00:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well... (4+ / 0-)

          you know, I'm just really struggling with the lessons you want to teach Tom Barrett at this point in time.

          Seems to me this is leftovers from 2010, and all the peeves Democrats had with Barrett then.  My dearest and oldest pal, who still lives in Madison, told me before the 2010 elections that Barrett was a "milk sop," and she'd vote for him, but not a thing more.  I guess we know how that turned out.

          Since then, she has had the grace to admit that she didn't understand how much worse it could be.  She ADMITS that she didn't figure on Scott Walker and what he would do to her state.

          So. My point is, nothing wrong with demanding more from Barrett, once he's in office and Walker is recalled.  There's A LOT wrong, the same damn things wrong, when you think Barrett is beholden to you.  

          Fact is, Barrett is pretty brave to put himself through this again.  He stands to be a two time loser to Scott Walker. I'll take that as a commitment from him to Wisconsin.

          I suggest you do too.  We need Barrett right now more than he needs us.

          •  Totally disagree on several points. What else (0+ / 0-)

            but past actions can be looked at when judging a candidate; as we all know, it is foolish to take campaign rhetoric at its face value.

            Where did I say that I thought Barrett should be beholden to me?  You are putting "words in my 'post.'"

            If Barrett wins the primary, he will understand that he needs to appeal to those Democrats who did not vote for him in the primary if he wants to win the election.  THAT is a good thing.  Until then, neither he nor his supporters should demand unified support from Walker's opponents.  After all, Progressive Wisconsinites fought long and hard to give the people of Wisconsin the right to determine candidates instead of party bosses.

            I am sick and tired of the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates (the infamous Blue-Dogs are a perfect example) taking traditional Democratic-coalition voters for granted.   Experience with most politicians suggests that "demanding more from Barrett, once he's in office" would be fairly futile unless he learns the "lesson" I think he needs to learn.

            If Barrett knows he will need Falk voters to be elected and re-elected, more will be done that Falk voters support!  Plain and simple...it is Madison"s faction theory at work in a representative government.  And that is why I am voting for Falk in the primary; and why I will support the Democratic candidate whoever it is once the primary is over.

            I will concede your point about having the guts to run again; it does say something about him.  I will also say that he seems to have a "fire" that I did not see in 2010.  

            "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

            by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 09:31:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You have some understandable points. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              And I understand wanting to put the "fierce" back into being a democrat.

              However, I believe these issues are very complex.  For instance, your words on "Blue Dogs."  Most, not all, but most blue dogs are there because they represent districts that will only tolerate blue dog democrats. It's either that or a republican.  Ben Nelson of Nebraska is a good example.

              Guy drove me crazy, like all blue dogs do, but fact is, he voted with the Democrats 80% of the time.  The other 20%, as maddening as it was, was all about keeping his seat, imo. We'll see if Bob Kerry, certainly not a blue dog, can win in Nebraska. I certainly hope so, but let's just say I'm not putting money down on it.  Otherwise we're going to get a republican who will vote with the Democrats 0% of the time.

              And, it is not fair to call Tom Barrett a blue dog.  A centrist democrat, yes, but not a blue dog.  So I guess I don't understand how blue dogs come into the conversation regarding the fact that Wisconsin Democrats made a mistake not getting more behind Barrett in 2010.

              As for the "beholden" thing. I never said you used that word.  But there is a whiff, in both your posts here, that suggests a lack of understanding that the relationship between a rep and a constituent is a two way street, and
              one that demands an understanding that that rep has to answer to other than just you.

              I think the fact that Walker is in a dead heat with Barrett, after ALL THAT HAS HAPPENED, tells you that half of Wisconsin is VERY conservative, as all conservatives are these days.  That's just a fact of the times, and won't be erased by ideological purity, but only by time and imo, the ultimate failure of the failing policies of the GOP.

              I heard Tom Barrett on Ed Shultz's radio show today.  I was very impressed.  

        •  I gather by your statement that (0+ / 0-)

          Barrett will be running for re-election in 2014 that you, ranton, are working hard for Barrett's election now.

          Good.  

          Because there is an odd distancing in your wording.  It's not about the voters that the candidates need.  It's about the voters that WE need, we Wisconsinites, to take back our state and to turn it progressive again.

          (If it's any encouragement, Barrett has represented me for more than two decades, and I've never seen anyone who has done so -- Feingold, et al. -- who is better at listening to his constituency and understanding what we say.  You want him to hear you and understand you?  Talk to him.  Now.)

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Wed May 02, 2012 at 09:09:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your impression is good to note. Will he "fight" (0+ / 0-)

            with some "fire" this time if he wins the primary?  

            The sense of "distancing" comes from my belief that party politicians take typical party coalition voters for granted; it's why I vote my preferences in a primary even if they cannot pull out a primary win.

            Your point about "the voters that we need" is correct; and Walker's opposition knows it.  If Barrett gets the primary win...Falk, LaFollette, and Vinehout voters will rally to Barrett and work for Walker's defeat; that includes me.

            "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

            by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 10:00:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  That's why Walker and his paying Corporatists have (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NoMoreLies, Midwesterners

      had radio/tv all to themselves.  Without that, his numbers would be worse.  I weep for my state and cringe at the number of duped voters who think Walker and the WISGOP act for voters' best interests.

      The result of the election will show if Corporatists who are hell-bent on buying political power really can pervert democracy with their bottomless pockets and political-foundation shell game.  As Charles Koch said "We've gotten pretty good at this over the years...We've spent a lot of money in Wisconsin. We're going to spend more."  

      "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

      by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:29:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOTV GOTV GOTV! (8+ / 0-)

    I sure hope that once the primary is over, that the candidates do the big rally around the winner thing.  Almost every candidate gets a little bump when the primary is over.

    As is always the case, poll likely voters and Dems lose or squeak by, poll registered voters and Dems win a close one, poll everyone and Dems win pretty easily.  Dem supporters just don't get off their butts and vote.  It's got to be different this time.

    •  It's kind of like the movie (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, NoMoreLies

      Ground Hog Day.  Except that so many Democrats have had to work SO HARD to get a replay.

      Barrett lost by very little to Walker in 2010.  You'd think, given what Walker has done since, it wouldn't be that tough to make up and exceed the difference.

      Frankly, I'm gob smacked and so disappointed that my home state has come to this.  That they say Walker still has the enthusiasm on his side?  How the hell can this be?

      This is not the place I grew up in, but then, you can never go home again according to Thomas Harding, and I guess he was right.  

      More to the point, it seems Wisconsin has become the nadir of the right/left fight.  The right is just aware as the left how much is riding on this recall.  So I need to be careful about the conclusions I draw.

      Finally, pollwatcher, you said it all.  "Democrat simply must get off their butts and vote.  It's got to be different this time"

      From your keyboard to God's ears.

  •  What is the impact of La Follette (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    3goldens, peptabysmal, Cream City

    and Vinehout?  If they dropped out, where would those votes go?

    It looks like progressives are splitting the vote amongst themselves.  Not helpful.

    •  As far as I know, Vinehout (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, elwior, 2laneIA, cks175

      has an inconsistent record on choice.

    •  Not the case (5+ / 0-)

      Vinehout is anti-choice and La Follette is running as a post-partisan kumbaya type.

      •  Vinehout is not exactly anti-choice. People like (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        emptythreatsfarm, 2laneIA

        her a lot, she is progressive and very sensible. She won her State senate job in a very Republican area.  People say she doesn't have enough name recognition to win the whole state in an election that will happen this quickly.

        •  her district is not very Republican. (5+ / 0-)

          western Wisconsin has a lot of blue and purple territory.  I think her district is in Ron Kind's congressional district, which leans pretty solidly Democratic.

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Wed May 02, 2012 at 02:26:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Vinehout is best choice (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, 2laneIA

          On the totally LOGICAL level, I believe Kathleen Vinehout is the best choice.  Her position on choice matches mine the most closely.  Her approach to finding common ground versus an "us" vs. "them" approach is refreshing.  She is very intelligent, but not in the way that is demeaning.  She is the individual running who knows most closely what it is like for the average Wisconsinite due to her farming and other work background.

          Barrett will probably win.  I will support him, but not work hard for him.  My union supports Falk.  I've heard her, but not 100% sold on her.  Will wholeheartedly support her, though, if she is the nominee.  LaFollette is okay, too.

          Walker needs to lose.  The SENATE is equally important (need 3 of the 4 Senate recalls).  The state is toast if we don't get one or the other.  Both would be best.

          If Walker manages to squeak through (wouldn't it be great if he is indicted and Mitchell becomes Governor!), Kathleen VINEHOUT should get in for 2014.

          Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

          by CentralWIGuy on Wed May 02, 2012 at 04:46:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  if Barrett will probably win the primary (6+ / 0-)

            but "Walker needs to lose", you need to work hard for him if he's the nominee.  I'm not totally sold on him either, but how's this: if he wins the primary, I'll donate $50 to him, and you volunteer at least once for him.  Deal?

            Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

            by James Allen on Wed May 02, 2012 at 05:18:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  PUUUUULEEEEEEEEEEZE (4+ / 0-)

            don't tell me you'll support Barrett, but not work hard for him.
            WTF does that mean?  He gets your vote with your nose plugged, but none of your time, energy or money to make sure that Scott Walker gets recalled?!?!?!?

            And I don't care who your union supports.  All's fair in the primaries.  But once this thing narrows down to ONE candidate, ANY Democrat or union member that doesn't bust their chops to support---read more than just vote, but WORK FOR--- whoever that candidate is, is IMO, a total looser dancing on the head of a pin, when so VERY MUCH is at stake.

          •  If your union is WEAC, you owe us (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            StellaRay, MichaelNY, 2laneIA, LordMike

            working hard for the Dem against Walker this time -- because your union's refusal to endorse the Dem against Walker last time helped Walker to win.

            Thank heavens for the teachers who gathered a week or so ago and told their WEAC leaders that the union -- the members -- will support the Dem candidate this time.  But the damage has been done.

            "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

            by Cream City on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:53:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I never understood that stance in that election! (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, Cream City

              "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

              by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 11:02:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Unions misplayed the Dem primary here. They (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Midwesterners, MichaelNY, Cream City

            should have  focused on defeating Walker.  Barrett is obviously the stronger candidate and it would have been a lot better if the unions had thrown their support for him earlier (or at least held off on jumping the gun and endorsing Falk so early).

        •  Agreed. She's not 100% pro-choice (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          2laneIA

          either, though, but she's not anti-choice.  She's just proved to be not reliable in voting with Republicans on some bills.

          She does come from a tricky district, and there are parts of Wisconsin where voting for women to have the vote still would be a tossup!  Still:  Barrett has the better record on women's issues.  (Falk is good on women's issues, of course, but does not have a voting record, simply because she not been in the state legislature like Barrett and Vinehout or in Congress like Barrett.)  

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:26:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Neither Vinehout (8+ / 0-)

      Or Lafollette (despite the name) are regarded as strong progressives.

      To answer your question, it would probably be evenly split between the two. Falk's coalition is primarily Madison progressives and some labor. My guess is Barrett actually wins among labor next Tuesday. Because most labor looks at this the way the rest of us WI Dems look at it, which is we want the candidate with the best chance to win and that's Barrett.

    •  Not sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, 2laneIA

      I am not sure where the votes would go.  La Follette's would probably lean toward Falk (Madison, etc.).  Vinehout's would probably split.

      Citizen from WI-07 (Marathon County)

      by CentralWIGuy on Wed May 02, 2012 at 04:38:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  LV/RV differences (7+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure that I'd agree with the assessment in the posting that "That falloff between likely and registered voters show that the Republicans still have a small edge on the enthusiasm gap here, or at least better follow-through on getting their partisans to commit to turning out."

    Quite frankly, we simply don't know what it means, because we don't know what screen the pollster is using to separate RV's from LV's. It could be stated intention to vote, past voting history, measurements of enthusiasm, knowledge of where your polling place is socio-economic factors, or a Ouija board. (All of those, except perhaps the Ouija board used by Scotty Rasmussen, are screens that some pollsters use to gauge "likely" voters.)

    I agree that the recall will be won or lost on turnout. But without more information about the pollster's LV screen, we have no idea how significant their distinction between RV and LV really is.

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

    by terjeanderson on Wed May 02, 2012 at 12:59:22 PM PDT

    •  The RV numbers are reverse exactly, i.e., Barrett (6+ / 0-)

      has a one-point lead there.
         The best conclusion is that five weeks out, one week before the Primary, they're tied.
         But Walker is under investigation in the John Doe case (or he could not have established a legal defense fund), and Barrett means to beat him over the head with it.

         And the Unions have the best GOTV ground game there is. Not to mention the enthusiasm of the People Power lined up against Governor Wanker.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:01:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  God, elwior, (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, AnnieJo, elwior, terjeanderson

        I sure appreciate your optimism.  Worries me a bit that the unions have tied themselves to Falk.  Frankly, I don't much care if it's Falk or Barrett or Vinehout or LaFollette.  They're all such a vast improvement on Scott Walker, I'd run with any one of them.

        But the polls seem pretty clear at this point, and not a bit ambivalent.  It's got to be Barrett.  And I just hope the unions are ready to pivot, and pivot fast.  We just don't have much time.

  •  Walker also spent aprox. 150,000 on lawyers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, elwior, Midwesterners

    to  help him cooperate with the John Doe investigation. Yesterday it was reported that he transferred 60,000 from his campaign fund to the defense lawyers who are helping him cooperate. (He had paid another attorney office for defending, I mean helping his campaign to cooperate in the John Doe).

  •  interesting (6+ / 0-)

    I think this race is a good litmus test for the limits on the effects of money in politics.

    Scott Walker is getting millions in right-wing money.  But really, how many people who are not going to vote for him will be convinced by some attack ads run against Barrett?

    Most voters have already made up their minds about Walker, so I suspect that all that Koch brothers money won't make much of a difference.

    27, white male, TX-26 (current), TN-09 (born), TN-08 (where parents live now)

    by TDDVandy on Wed May 02, 2012 at 01:10:50 PM PDT

    •  There are always some capricious voters (4+ / 0-)

      who really don't know much and are, therefore, swing voters between candidates as dissimilar as Walker and Barrett. In other words, you can think of it as him needing the "stupid" vote.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed May 02, 2012 at 02:34:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, and face it, the GOP knows how to get out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        cks175

        the stupid vote.  GOPers will pressure their employees, underlings, and senile relatives to support Walker.  Poll watching is very, very important, especially if the GOP starts bringing in people on IVs and gurneys.  They have the right to vote if they are registered, but we can at least make sure there's no rigor mortis.  These Walker people are capable of anything.  As we've seen.

        Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Island"s, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

        by judyms9 on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:00:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can't tip this post (0+ / 0-)

          I really don't like the spirit of it, with you slamming elderly voters the way you do. We should all hope to live to a ripe old age, and even some folks here who are not yet old have or until recently had elderly parents, who voted (and voted Democratic), regardless of how difficult it was physically for them to get to the polls. Joke about rigor mortis somewhere else.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:34:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Meant in a more light-hearted way than you took (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, StellaRay

            it.  Think Chicago and how the dead are said to have voted so many times over the years.  I myself am seven decades and am not condescending to anyone.  Absentee voting has served us well.

            Romney went to France instead of serving in our military, got rich chop-shopping US businesses and eliminating US jobs, off-shored his money in the Cayman Island"s, and now tells us to "Believe in America."

            by judyms9 on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:42:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  OK, I get it. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              StellaRay

              Sorry, it hit a nerve.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:47:04 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And I know the nerve it hit. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I've got the same one burning. I've got a very elderly mother who would insist the ambulance take her to the polls first, on the way to the ER, if something happened to her on election day. Unfortunately, that would be so she could vote republican.

                But no matter, I too intend to follow in my mother's path, except for the fact that I'll do it as a democrat.  And I won't appreciate anyone discounting me until I don't know my own name.

          •  I tipped it. I took the joke about rigor (0+ / 0-)

            mortis as a reference to Republican voter fraud, not an attack on decent elderly people.

            And don't forget that age doesn't automatically make one good and decent.  The poster has a point that many of the older voters are life-long Republicans who have supported Walker, many of them racists, codgers and strike breaking scabs in their past.  So don't have too much pity on that group.

            And don't forget we defended Rep Alan Grayson's characterization of Republicans wanting people to die in order to control health care costs.  In the post above, we saw an actually milder claim that Republicans want people to die so then the corpses can vote GOP!  :)

  •  How much of that can Walker really spend? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY, elwior

    I'm guessing he has too much cash to actually use usefully in the month left.  If he blew it all, he'd be way past the saturation point.

    Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

    by James Allen on Wed May 02, 2012 at 02:28:00 PM PDT

    •  Still, he's going to need a lot of it for his (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      3goldens, MichaelNY

      legal defense fund.

      "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

      by elwior on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:03:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You're so right, James. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Media buying is an art, one that most political media buyers are not very good at.  Not all, but most.  And the reason is, they come at it from an entirely different place than those really brilliant media buyers who do it day in day out, and have to answer for how they spend.

      Elections move so fast and furiously, and in a very macho way, always assuming the more the better when it comes to buying media time, primarily TV.

      But the truth is there IS a roof on impressions.  There IS a point where more money spent does nothing for you.  In short, there IS a saturation point.  And every dollar spent after that point is a dollar pissed into the wind.

      We see a mind blowing amount of dollars pissed away in every election, and with this our first Citizens United election, it's going to be a storm of piss water.

      The antecedents for this are Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, both who pissed money into the storm to no avail.

  •  At this point, what's the reason to support Falk? (6+ / 0-)
    •  Because Falk (6+ / 0-)

      Is a better ideological fit for them. I don't have a problem with it because I know there are more of us on the other side voting for Barrett because he is a far better candidate. The only I ask is that they line up behind Barrett when he wins 6 days from now, which I believe they will do.

      •  Yes, of course. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, StellaRay

        Beating Walker is the thing, and everyone knows it.

        "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

        by elwior on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:04:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  To send Tom Barrett a message! I will 'line up" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for him if he wins, but I have issues concerning the campaign he ran in 2010 and some of his actions and statements since.

        Barrett needs to know that many of the votes which will put him in the winning column will come from people who have "issues" with him.  He will be a much better "progressive" governor with that lesson learned.

        "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

        by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:41:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  AND, (5+ / 0-)

          Wisconsin Democrats need to realize that their gripes with Barrett were not useful in 2010.  

          I too hope that Barrett will not only win the recall, but also be changed by this experience, in a way that makes progressives happier.

          However, one can not argue with the fact that had Barrett won the governorship in 2010, no matter how luke warm Wisconsin Democrats were and/or are about him---NOTHING THAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE WOULD HAVE HAPPENED.  PERIOD.  The "wand" to make it all go away, was right in front of voters from the get go.

          See, that's the thing, and one of the reasons I could just scream every time I hear uber progressives tell me there's no difference between the two parties and we're all f'd no matter how we vote.

          You better believe there's a difference in the parties, and I can't think of a more clear example than Wisconsin---and Michigan, and Ohio, and Florida, and all the other states that ushered in the GOP cabal of governors that are ALEC's wet dream.

          IF democrat governors, no matter WHO THEY WERE, had won in those states, OMG.  How very different things would be.

  •  Will OFA Wisconsin activate for this race? (0+ / 0-)

    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

    by TrueBlueDem on Wed May 02, 2012 at 05:50:17 PM PDT

  •  Walker's fate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If enough union voters come out combined with enough apathy about this race, Walker is toast.

    It all depends on which side gets out the most votes....but then, isn't that always the case :-)

    - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

    by r2did2 on Wed May 02, 2012 at 05:56:49 PM PDT

  •  Why is this even close? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, NoMoreLies

    Do the people of Wisconsin enjoy being the Mississippi of the North?

    •  Reason (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is that Walker hasn't had an opponent to run against and he has Mega bucks so he can go out and campaign while the dems have to standard barer.

      •  What this issue has become (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Recalling Walker has moved from being an anti-Walker movement to a pro-union vs. anti-union issue in Wisconsin...at least for the most part.

        It's no longer all about Walker, the govenor, but about union power or lack thereof in the state of Wisconsin.

        - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

        by r2did2 on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:16:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That happened because Walker has had bottomless (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          pockets to frame that message on the airways, 24x7.  I pray that after May 6 the winning Democrat has the ability, both personal "fire" and funds, to pound Walker's "framing" to splinters.  

          Since I did not see that "fire" in Barrett during the 2010 campaign, I am worried about another "kick-at-the-can" by him.  I hope he has it in him; I know Falk does and so does Vinehout.

          "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

          by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:51:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's interesting to me (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            That Falk definitely has the fire but Barrett doesn't. Barrett lost by 5 to a very strong candidate in one of the most Republican years in American history. Falk lost to a complete meat head in one of the most democratic years in American history a year in which Jim Doyle won by 8 points which in WI is the equivalent of winning by 20.

            •  My sense is that undecided voters will not be (0+ / 0-)

              won by cool and calm; it is going to take someone who can show "passion" of conviction; someone who will call Walker out for his lies, ALEC agenda, rank partisanship, abuse of power, and his attempt to rule instead of govern.  

              Any voter that is still undecided is someone who has not been paying much attention; I doubt logic and politics as usual are going to win their votes.  Walker appeals to the lower instincts and emotions by scapegoating and dividing/conquering; "fire" or "passion of conviction" is the only thing that can get the votes of those kind of voters.

              Falk and Vinehout have attacked Walker with that "fire"; they have had to since neither is well funded.  Barrett did not show much of that in Western WI in 2010; however, he has in the last few weeks.  If he is the primary winner, he needs to continue...independent voters are sick of politics as usual.  

              "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

              by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 11:36:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  My sense is that (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Most voters when you mention ALEC they think Baldwin.

                First of all, I think most voters who are undecided right now are probably not going to turn out. It's a lot easier to not turn out for an election in June than one in November.

                And if it is Falk she'll be easily caricatured and all her fire isn't going to do her any good because she just isn't a good candidate as evidenced by her electoral record.

            •  Yes, Falk underperformed in 2006 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              behind other Dems, while Barrett did as well as Feingold, and both did better than Dems in legislature, losing both houses, in 2010.

              As for 2012, you apparently have not seen Barrett on the campaign trail.  Or check his ads.  The fire is there.

              More important, as well we have seen, governing is what we need, not just campaigning.  Falk's lack of legislative experience shows in her promises that other candidates wisely are not making.  We will not have accomplished the goal simply by getting a Dem governor.  We need a governor who knows how to get Walker's laws turned around -- and we're not going to get the Assembly.

              "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

              by Cream City on Thu May 03, 2012 at 04:39:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  When is the Primary? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ??

  •  27 undecided seems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    pretty high as far as the Dems go. I would think the Democratic base in the general would be what the pollsters call enthusiastic. Can't the Democratic party national machine pour some money to the Dem candidate or is that verboten?  

  •  the outcome will be contested (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Midwesterners

    With this vote potentially so close, does anyone not think that the losing side (WALKER/KOCH) will do everything in their power to delay/defraud/prevent the final outcome?  I smell legal challenges that will prevent any new administration from taking office for a very long time.  Call my cynical, but that's how the GOP rolls here in WI.  This is going to be one very nasty election; the only question right now is how much money will be spent by the GOP/Koch machine to buy this election?

    Wisconsin: It's war, you know. We didn't start it, but we'll keep fighting in it until we win

    by isewquilts2 on Wed May 02, 2012 at 06:44:47 PM PDT

    •  I fear your assessment is correct! The Dem MUST (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Midwesterners

      win by enough of a spread to make it look like "sour-grapes" and an elitist temper tantrum.

      "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

      by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 07:06:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  cash burn (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TofG

    He's raised $13.5m since January.   But he has raised $25m since taking office, meaning he has spent $20m over the last year on propaganda.  What kind of elected official has to spend $20mil to sell his policies?  In the next month he will start to get push back.  Hopefully the polls will keep trending in our favor.

    •  One that lies...it takes a lot of cash to (0+ / 0-)

      accomplish "if you tell a lie often enough, people will believe it"!

      "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

      by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 10:18:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  this, unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

    is why i have little hope. If this race is so close, with an idiot corporate shill like him, what hope is there for righting this ship we are in? This is so night and day. I mean, really? 50 % think he is ok to govern??

    •  Well, 48% do. Are you in Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Midwesterners

      which has been, with the exception of the aberration of 2008, the closest state in national elections since 2000?

      If not, you can only imagine life in a swing state, so split down the middle that every vote counts.  I talk with friends in the other sort of state, who have the luxury of having fun with their votes or not voting at all.  They are amazed at what life is like here, for many years now, with nonstop pollsters' calls and robocalls and people even in families having to talk about the weather or the Packers to be able to be civil at all, because politics is so polarizing and cutthroat here.  (Seriously; I just had to endure one of those family gatherings last weekend, and I got stuck at the table with the wingnuts, and I skipped most of the food on my plate and went hungry so that I could get away, and because the stress made me too nervy to eat.)

      It's down to the undecideds now.  If the poll is to be believed, that's five percent of the likely voters.  We need every damn vote and every one of us to work our damndest, even harder than we have for more than a year now.  And if you're not in Wisconsin, we need you to offer encouragement, thankyouverymuch.

      Because if you're not in Wisconsin, you're next.

      "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

      by Cream City on Wed May 02, 2012 at 09:19:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who are the people (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Midwesterners

    who support both Obama and Walker? The same poll has Obama over Romney 51 - 42.

    •  Must be independent voters, certainly not Democrat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Democratic voters.

    •  My guess (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Is they are the anti-Walker, anti-recall voters. Truly non-ideological moderates who vote for just as many Republicans as Democrats. They probably voted for Walker but don't like what he's done and in a normal election would be against Walker. But, to them recalls are reserved for people who have not just been bad governors but have shamed the office.

    •  Excellent Question!! (0+ / 0-)

      I know Wisconsin is an unbelievably split-down-the-middle state, but these "consistent" Obama poll numbers truly are perplexing in regards to the Walker Recall numbers!

      All that said, as someone nearing the 60 year mark in life, I never ever would have "thunk" two or three decades ago that Wisconsin would be a paradise for right-wingnut Koch Addicts.  It is mind-numbing how the Repugnicans have so successfully gotten people to vote against their own self-interests over the years.  Again, I know how deeply divided Wisconsin is, but it is even more tragic that Walker is still ahead in the polls--even if it is just by decimal points.  After all that Walker and the Repugs have done to the state's economy, educational system, environment and the pure social atmosphere, this Recall should be a landslide in favor of the Democrats.  That it isn't speaks volumes as to how successfully Rove/Norquist and their ilk have "won" the culture wars they instigated decades ago for these very purposes!

      •  WI is home to the Bradley Foundation and the John (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Birch Society (the eastern part of WI).  Ethnic settlement patterns may have some impact on the split nature of the state. It certainly is not the only explanation, but the link provides some analysis based on settlement and recent election results.  The eastern part of the state (settled by Germans) trends to more conservative voting while the northern and western parts (more Scandinavian settlers) tend to vote more liberally.

        http://www.jsonline.com/...

        "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

        by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 10:58:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not east-west (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Midwesterners

          -- it's urban-rural.

          And the most Germanic area, Milwaukee, was Socialist for half a century, until not that long ago.  That's hardly conservative.  Since, it has segued into the only majority-minority city in the state (most states in the region have a couple to a few) and the Dem stronghold of the state.

          As for the northern areas, that theory was dropped a while ago with analysis of their record in state history on liberal/progressive reforms; it'svery uneven.  Actually, the Scandinavian heritage has meant conservatism on some social issues that put them at odds with the Populist heritage (aka the Farmer-Labor Dems in Minnesota).

          That's also somewhat simplistic, but entire books have attempted to explain complexities of the state's politics, of course.

          "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

          by Cream City on Thu May 03, 2012 at 04:52:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree, except Suburban WI can vote very Repug (0+ / 0-)

            Sadly, I do not think that the "divide" in Wisconsin--as in many other states--can be cast along rural/urban locales any more when discussing voting patterns--i.e., Repub v. Democrat.  After all, look at all that RED territory in Waukesha (think of Kathy Nickolaus for starters) and other suburbs that outline Milwaukee.  The same can be said for Chicago.  

            Again, it has been diabolically brilliant what kind of cultural divisiveness--for lack of better words--that Norquist, Rove and their ilk started decades ago to get people to vote against their own self interests--no matter where they live!  In fact, there is an awful lot of "red" inside of Milwaukee proper when you get down to it!  And then of course, decades later, we have the Koch Addict Brothers throwing millions and millions of dollars to secure this cultural divisiveness so that people just automatically vote Repugnican no matter what the party does to them!

      •  I'm the same age, and I know (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Midwesterners

        about Joe McCarthy.

        And that most Wisconsin governors have been Repubs since the party was founded in Wisconsin.

        It's long been a red state with a couple of blue islands.  Fortunately, highly populated islands -- but, when those islands of Madison and Milwaukee Dems are at odds, as they are so often (and are again now), Repubs win.

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Thu May 03, 2012 at 04:44:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I know old Joe (McCarthy) well (0+ / 0-)

          Sadly, there's a long history of anti-liberalism in Wisconsin to match all of the Progressive history in the state. I couldn't agree with you more.  Nevertheless, I still would never have thought some 35 years ago that the Koch Addict Brothers could find such an easy puppet target as Walker in Wisconsin of all places.  And believe me, I am no Polyanna!

  •  This is extremely encouraging! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The Marquette polling shop has a strong right wing house effect, so these numbers are really amazingly good for us... especially considering we have a bruising primary going on and Walker is spending tons of money.

    I was convinced that we were going to lose this thing, but now I feel much more confident.  I just hope the FBI gets off their duff in time to indict Walker before June.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed May 02, 2012 at 09:49:34 PM PDT

    •  Agree...Prof. Franklin's polling and back history (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      with Koch and Bradley Foundation funded organizations make his polling results VERY suspect.  Past results of FOI requests are interesting; there are reasons he is not at UW-M and polling under the auspices of Marquette, a private institution (no FOIs?).  

      I am intrigued by the fact that right-wing talk radio has started to attack Falk, calling for her to drop out of the race.  Are they signaling Republican cross-over voters to vote for Falk or is Barrett the candidate Walker really wants to face?

      If only we knew what Prof. Franklin's polling showed that was not released?

      "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

      by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 10:30:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's at Marquette for the money (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for a semester, as the law school (far more conservative than the campus, almost a separate entity) is loaded.

        He is from the UW-Madison campus so would not be at the UW-Milwaukee campus, plus it doesn't have the money after taking the worst of Walker's budget hits, at the start of the biennium in July and again in January.  (That's just unheard-of and evidence that his budget was a lie.)

        "Let all the dreamers wake the nation." -- Carly Simon

        by Cream City on Thu May 03, 2012 at 04:56:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sadly, dream on! (0+ / 0-)

      I hope and "pray" that I'm wrong, but the "gods" are not in our--that is, the Democrats'--favor!

      •  Who are ye to know the will of the gods? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Have you slaughtered a rabbit and examined its entrails as the ancients did, or did you consult the Oracle of Lambeau Field for knowledge?

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Wed May 02, 2012 at 10:58:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm optimistic; he has PO'ed so many voting (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, TofG

        blocks; the one unknown is how much "repair" can unlimited campaign spending do while "trashing" his opponent.  

        "I'm frankly sick and tired of the political preachers across this country telling me as a citizen that if I want to be a moral person, I must believe in 'A,' 'B,' 'C,' and 'D.' Just who do they think they are?" Barry Goldwater

        by ranton on Wed May 02, 2012 at 11:41:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I never thought our chances were better than 50-50 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, rosarugosa

          Believe me, I have been pounding the pavement  since February 2011 for the Recall (beginning with the Protest in Madison).  I will never give up--even if I go down kicking and screaming!  But even the best or most optimistic of the so-called political pundits gave the Recall a 50-50 chance.  To me, these are incredibly dangerous odds to work with--or against.

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