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8:40 AM PT: 1Q Fundraising: The good folks at Roll Call have put together a chart of Senate fundraising numbers for the first quarter of 2012. It's a good companion to our House chart.

9:03 AM PT: EMILY: A big bunch of endorsements from EMILY's List: Shelley Adler (NJ-03), Kathy Boockvar (PA-08), Julia Brownley (CA-26), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-09). Of these, only Brownley and Sinema face contested primaries, though the posture of each race is quite different. Sinema is squaring off against Andrei Cherny and David Schapira in a traditional nomination battle, but Brownley is facing a much scarier five-way race that features three Democrats (herself included), one independent, and one Republican. As we've written in the past, there's a very real chance the the indy—Linda "Rocky Road" Parks, a former GOPer—could, along with Republican Tony Strickland, prevail in California's top-two June primary, meaning that no Democrats would be on the ballot in November. Fortunately, the other two Dems have raised bupkes, but this is going to be a serious hill to climb for Brownley, so it's good that she's getting some outside help.

9:45 AM PT: CA-24: Abel Maldonado is no Some Dude. He's a former state senator and lieutenant governor who's considered a top-tier recruit against Dem Rep. Lois Capps in the redrawn 24th. But despite his pedigree, Maldonado FEC statements sure look like they were filed by an incompetent campaign. On April 13, he filed his first-quarter report showing he'd raised $152K (kind of a meh sum, but whatever). However, in the "cycle-to-date" column, which is supposed to show how much you've raised since inception, that number was... $0. Maldonado filed an amended report three days later, though, which showed his CTD was... still $0. Let's hope his entire campaign is run this well.

10:07 AM PT: IN-Sen: A break for Richard Mourdock: Indiana Republicans say he won't face sanctions (if at all) until after the May 8 primary for a staffer's attempt to mass-download email addresses from a shared GOP database, apparently in violation of "a user agreement with the state party."

10:09 AM PT: WV-Sen: Awesome. Republican John Raese is digging in his heels—firmly:

Raese told the Gazette Thursday that he stands by the comments, saying, "I don't see anything that's incorrect in any of the statements I made. It's all very factual."
What comments? Oh, just the ones comparing anti-smoking laws to Hitler forcing Jews to wear Stars of David on their clothing. Background here.

10:14 AM PT: WI Redistricting: Wisconsin Republicans have decided to appeal a lower court ruling that found district lines for two seats in the legislature's new map for the state Assembly violated the Voting Rights Act. (The court subsequently redraw those districts.) The appeal goes directly to the Supreme Court, and it's a somewhat surprising move, since in the end, the GOP only wound up losing a much broader redistricting lawsuit on this one comparatively smaller issue. But as the very last graf of the linked article notes, this presents Democrats with a big opportunity, since it "gives the plaintiffs a chance to cross-appeal on a host of claims they previously lost," something they previously said they'd likely do if given the chance.

10:28 AM PT: WV-Sen: Even more:

"I can't find anything in my statement and during my speech that wasn't true," Raese said in a telephone interview.

He later added, "I'm not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It's my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country."

Raese sternly dismissed the firestorm and blamed it on U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, who Raese accused of playing "gotcha." Raese said a person with a camera was following him around, a tactic that campaigns in major races use to try to embarrass the other side. [...]

"I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit," Raese said.

10:52 AM PT: UT-Gov: It's a shame Utah is so blood-red, because Democrats have actually put together what seems like an interesting gubernatorial ticket. At the top is Peter Cooke, a retired two-star general who commanded a brigade based in Salt Lake City. As his running-mate, he just tapped attorney Vincent Rampton, who is the son of former three-term Gov. Calvin Rampton, who believe it or not served from 1965 to 1977 as a Democrat. To call this race an uphill battle would be an understatement, but at least Team Blue is showing up to fight.

11:00 AM PT: PA-17: It's a little late, but Joe Sestak is jumping into yet another Keystone State race, this time on behalf of Matt Cartwright. With the primary just days away on Tuesday, Sestak will be headlining a rally for Cartwright on Saturday in the town of Easton. Unlike, say, Bill Clinton, it's not always clear what motivates Sestak (the honey badger of Pennsylvania politics), but Keegan Gibson notes that Cartwright and his wife donated $4K to Sestak's Senate election campaign last cycle.

12:14 PM PT: OH-Sen: Rasmussen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 44 (43), Josh Mandel (R): 41 (43)

12:27 PM PT (David Jarman): Cities: PPP is out with a Friday fluff poll that's got some interesting subtext going on: a nationwide poll of the favorability of the nation's major cities. Turns out the zeitgeist hasn't changed that much since the early 90s, as the leading two cities (out of 21 total) are both in the Pacific Northwest: Seattle, at a net +43 (57/14), and Portland at +40 (52/12). They're followed by Boston, Atlanta, and Phoenix, while the bottom 5 are Washington DC, Miami, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Detroit.

Once I finished a moment's gloating over where I live, though, I noticed that something else was happening here: a very high correlation (0.7) between how favorably a city is viewed, and how white it is. (Seattle and Portland are also the two cities with the highest non-Hispanic white population percentages according to the 2010 census, while Detroit and Oakland are the lowest and third-lowest.)

Non-Hispanic white percentage is on the vertical axis, while net favorability is on the horizontal axis. And I did try an alternate hypothesis, which seems to be a linked factor (Seattle and Detroit are the second-least-impoverished and most-impoverished cities on the list, too). However, it's not as strong as race itself: poverty rate has only a 0.45 correlation.

12:35 PM PT: NC-09: Weddington Mayor Pro Tem Daniel Barry is the second Republican in this very crowded field to go on the air, with a new spot touting the usual GOP trifecta of economic aims: cut spending, reduce the debt, eliminate regulations. (Bor-ring.) You can watch it here. But it's former state Sen. Robert Pittenger who has been using his massive cash advantage to flood the airwaves. He's self-funded a million bucks and already spent three quarters of that. Pittenger's only posted a couple of positive spots to his YouTube account, but he's aired negative ads as well, including this one targeted at Mecklenburg County Sheriff Jim Pendergraph.


12:48 PM PT: TN-03: This kind of thing is so pathetic. Wealthy dairyman Scottie Mayfield refused to answer a student's question at a meeting of the University of Tennessee College Republians, who asked him what he'd like to accomplish if he gets elected to Congress. Mayfield offered this ridiculous dodge:

"Until you get on a committee, it's really hard to get too focused," he told the College Republicans at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. "Quite honestly, I've got a file in my file cabinet that's 'When I Get There.' I haven't really focused on that because I've got to get there first."
So show us what's in the file cabinet, no? How hard is that? Mayfield also managed to emphasize that he's an extremely rich guy who gets to play by a different set of rules when it comes to taxes:
"I hire a CPA that's very good at what he does, and I get to take advantage of pieces of the tax code I'm pretty sure the average person doesn't get to take advantage of. That's the rules, and that's how I play."
The meeting, incidentally, was captured on camera, and it sounds like it was probably recorded by the younger sister of another candidate, Weston Wamp. Wamp's sister Coty attends UT law school, and Wamp himself (who refused to deny posting the video) admits that he knows "about half those guys" in the College Republicans. This might be the first and only time I ever say this, but I guess this shows that there is indeed one advantage to being only 25 years old when you run for Congress.

1:40 PM PT: PA-18: The writing's been on the wall for Evan Feinberg for some time: Most of the outside money aimed at helping the young former congressional staffer knock off Rep. Tim Murphy in the GOP primary has dried up, his own fundraising has been terrible, and he never responded to a Murphy internal poll that showed the incumbent with a comical 74-12 lead when the race began in earnest back in January. Now one of the last believers, the Campaign for Primary Accountability, is giving up on Feinberg in the waning days of the campaign. Better luck next time!

1:44 PM PT: NY-Sen: It is very hard for me to care about the fundraising numbers pulled in by the GOP Senate "hopefuls" in New York.

1:48 PM PT: WATN?: Former Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson of Louisiana will begin serving his 13-year sentence for corruption in the next two weeks. Jefferson had been free on bond pending an appeal of his conviction, but an appeals court sustained 10 of the 11 charges last month, so now his sentence must commence. I strongly advise Jefferson to read Jeff Smith's excellent (and chilling) piece in which he gave advice to another convicted pol as he was about to enter prison, former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

1:53 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-03: This nice local color piece about the Portland metropolitan area from Stateline's John Gramlich is mostly oriented toward tax wonks, looking at the wackiness that ensues from Oregon and Washington's diametrically-opposed tax systems (Oregon has a high income tax and is murderously opposed to sales taxes, Washington has a high sales tax and hates income taxes). If there's an Elections angle here, it has some explanatory power as to why Clark County, Washington (Vancouver and its suburbs) seems, while not moving to the right, rather stalled while most of the rest of the Northwest shuffles to the left: it's a destination for die-hard tax-haters who want to exploit the tax disparity by working in Washington and shopping in Oregon.

2:27 PM PT: IN-05: If I started talking about a veteran Indiana Republican who was under fire over residency issues, you'd assume I was referring to Sen. Dick Lugar. For once, though, I'm not, because Lugar has company. From the AP:

The Indiana secretary of state’s office will investigate whether 5th District congressional candidate David McIntosh committed voter fraud and perjury by voting in Indiana while living in Virginia, a spokesman said Thursday.
McIntosh, who served in Congress in the late 1990s, is attempting a comeback in the open 5th CD, which is playing host to a very crowded GOP field. I'm sure McIntosh's primary opponents will be eager to make hay of this one.

2:46 PM PT: MT-Gov: In response to an RGA ad attacking Democratic AG Steve Bullock for refusing to join a lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act led by Republican attorneys general, the DGA is firing back with a very defensive-sounding spot that tries to make Bullock's decision sound fiscally prudent. The RGA is reportedly spending $140K on their buy, but no word on the size of the DGA's buy. I personally think the Republican ad is a lot more effective, but I'll let you compare and contrast:

3:25 PM PT: In comments, DrPhillips reminds us that this isn't the first time Abel Maldonado (see CA-24 item up above) has produced dodgy campaign finance reports. A while back, he was busted for inflating his cash-on-hand totals via bogus loans to his campaign account right at the end of every quarter. He'd then immediately take the money back out after the reporting deadline—something it turns out he did once again this past quarter. However, he didn't issue any new loans to himself during this reporting period, probably because these shenanigans were exposed.

3:32 PM PT: IL-13: A month after the primary, Greene County State's Attorney Matt Goetten has finally conceded the Democratic nomination to physician David Gill, who won by less than 200 votes. The results were set to be certified on Friday, a deadline Goetten had been waiting for to determine what next steps to take. Evidently, though, despite some ballot problems on election night in Macoupin County, Goetten felt there was little to be gained from asking for a recount.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Classic Philly: Winning election by name confusion (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:55:02 AM PDT

    •  "Jewel Williams" running for "Jewell Willams" seat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, Adam B, MichaelNY

      her father and long time incumbent who recently vacated in the course of his successful run for sheriff.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:59:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It takes a lot (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        To make me agree with Milton Street, but here we are.

        Street, who dropped off the primary ballot and chose instead to run in the special election, accuses Williams and his daughter of running a campaign "designed to deceive."

        "She's young," Street said. "She probably has some potential. But it hasn't been developed. I don't think she's prepared to take on that responsibility. But her father's pushing her."

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:04:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for the list (8+ / 0-)

    ....of VP candidates that can deliver their home states for the Romney campaign.

    Republican, MI-09, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 07:55:48 AM PDT

  •  The list of people who enjoyed the smoking (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, aamail6, askew, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    argument from the morning digest?

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:01:58 AM PDT

  •  I see David has posted (10+ / 0-)

    Congressman West's list of Socialists in the Democratic party.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:02:19 AM PDT

    •  Hey, you can't forget (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, atdnext, MichaelNY

      my man Bernie Sanders. And there's probably a small handful of others that haven't gone on record as such but at least consider themselves to be so privately.

      Now communists on the other hand… Ha. Hahahaha. Ha ha ha.

      How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August

      by gabjoh on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:29:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, Sanders would have actually be (5+ / 0-)

        you know, a Democrat for that to count. :P

        In all seriousness, can you imagine the media uproar if someone such as say, Alan Grayson or Dennis Kucinich claimed the Republican Study Committee were fascists?  I realize West's comments aren't hard to frame as a (very lame) joke, but still... he's almost a parody of what a Republican is.

        •  I'm really happy (5+ / 0-)

          he's the Republican candidate, essentially, in a very swingish suburban district that is trending Democratic. Patrick Murphy is an excellent candidate.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:02:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Riiiiiight! (0+ / 0-)

          Maybe I'll make the excuse for myself that I misread it as "Democratic Caucus"? Or maybe I just had one of those brain farts.

          But if we're not just talking about electeds, there is the Democratic Socialists of America (which if you actually look at the justifications for West's comments, is one connection in the "guilt by association" game). Familiar (to me) people involved with the organization include Barbara Ehrenreich and Cornel West.

          How does homeopathy work? | Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09)) | #ows since August

          by gabjoh on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:52:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Live Digest is early (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, LordMike, skibum59

    Is it going to be early every day that your catnip draws in ferel cats David?  

    A headline featuring a comment about Hitler and smoking and a West Virginia rich-guy Republican?  Couldn't you have found a way to work in Darcy Burner?

    LOL

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:05:54 AM PDT

  •  OK, OK, I surrender. (32+ / 0-)

    I'm back. I guess once a Swingnut, always a Swingnut. I couldn't stay away from perhaps my fave blog community in the whole wide world. So what do you want to know about Nevada?

    :-D

  •  Guess (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, tietack, lordpet8

    David's having problems figuring out those fancy toilets they have in Japan again...

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:22:54 AM PDT

    •  If you ever see a special toilet with Kanji (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      (Japanese script) -- take my advice -- don't just push the buttons!

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:47:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  why? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        they're awesome :)

        the only kanji you need to differentiate between are 小 (direction you flush for #1) and 大 (#2). :P

        22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:16:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  oh and (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          as in the video, it helps to differentiate between 女 (ladies) and 男 (gents) - although I think most bathrooms are either color-coded or have the universally recognized pictures of a man/woman.

          22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:18:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  there were a bunch of buttons (0+ / 0-)

          and one I pressed was for the bidet wash -- that shoots up.

          Well, if you're standing up when you push the button, water shooting up like from a bidet hits paydirt in an embarrasing location... I was fortunate that it was chilly enough that day in Yokohama that I had a sweatshirt that could be pulled down over the area in question.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:28:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  All of the buttons are bidet wash (0+ / 0-)

            pretty much. There's some difference (I think the shape the water comes out in??) but it's not much. Japanese toilets are awesome, and they're one of many things that Japan has that America needs (or needs more of). :)

            22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), moving to Japan in July, hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:36:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  David (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    I'm going to apologize here to you for this, because I know you're gonna want one. I couldn't help myself. It felt so good.

    22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

    by wwmiv on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:48:20 AM PDT

    •  So do you now understand... (0+ / 0-)

      Why I decided to step away from "Kolossal Orange Satan" last fall? :-p

    •  Yikes that comment was ill-advised (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, ArkDem14, dc1000, SaoMagnifico

      we should at least play nice with each other.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:50:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know why that was your response (10+ / 0-)

      To a well-organized and thoughtful comment that put forth a response I think most here would probably agree to.

      I've been annoyed lately more by that impatient, sometimes prickish behavior of long-time regulars here who don't even bother to interact with people from a different subset of interests with a modicum of politeness. I've found I've gotten good response from a wide variety of non Dkos election people by simply being respectful, detailed, and straightforward on such issues. Not that there aren't always people who don't like to listen or people who are themselves rude. But the snobbery here has grown to where its being slapped against folks from other strati of the site who are not even being rude.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:56:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

        It wasn't well organized nor thoughtful, especially his last point and especially his use of the word except in the place of accept.

        22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

        by wwmiv on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:00:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd have to disagree (5+ / 0-)

          I see nothing wrong or ineloquent about the comment. "Except" is the kind of typo that happens to everyone at times, especially when they write a long comment and don't carefully proofread it, and it's certainly nothing to provoke such rudeness.

          Again, there are so many worthwhile comments for that kind of response, and you toss it at a guy who seems to have a good grasp of the VP issue and makes good, relatively well-educated comments thereon?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:10:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Well then, step in (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, SaoMagnifico

        It's for the most part a self-policing site within the rules.  I think we've all been pretty good at it, but if you feel more policing of regulars to FPers is needed, step in.  Regular users are more likely to listen to other regulars (for the most part).

        I don't find myself particularly charming or intelligent, but just knowing what conversations to engage in and not is the easiest part of it (Mark27 and smoking this morning for example).  Avoiding those powderkegs is key.

        But as regular users we're not immune.  All of us have regular users on here we don't exactly cherish (admit it, you do).  Even yesterday you saw how some self-policing diffused some "unfortunate wording" between 2 regular users (ndrwlms response to IllinoyedR) and it almost immediately went away and wasn't a huge deal or a derail of the entire thread.

        Stuff like the "Pete Stark deserves a free pass" are the ultimate "battleground".  Can you engage and explain things to people who don't care about the means/end justification as much as we might.  In that case we're not differing on ideology per se but in rhetoric, those conversations rarely result in effervescent agreement.

        I tend to think that while conversations amongst regulars is where I go too far sometimes, I find the conversations so engrossing (and still in bounds) I rarely care.  That's how we get the 600-800 comment threads :-)

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:08:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My point was that people have (7+ / 0-)

          started here have started engaging in this rude, cliquish behavior when faced with any newcomers from other groups and interests who discuss things or perhaps make comments that a regular here disagrees with. I've been posting with SSP since it barely had a functioning website, so I do know the feeling of having even regular users who you dislike or annoy you (trust me, there are actually fewer purist trolls around than there used to be). And a lot of these new folks do come in making obnoxious or delusional comments. I generally have a 1 polite/thorough response rule for these folks, followed by links to the commandments of MetaJesus.

          I have also more than a little uncalled for nastiness and rudeness towards other users, many of whom are interested in engaging in a debate or discussion, if only from a different viewpoint and a different background of interests.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:19:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  However, really, wwmiv's comment (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, dc1000, SaoMagnifico

          Really qualified for a troll rating. I ended up declining to give it one, but it's the kind of uncalled for ad hominem personal attack that drives down discussion here.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:24:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree. (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dc1000, ArkDem14, itskevin, gabjoh

            You should actually go downrate it. I'd rather have it disappear.

            22, Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (Taught), TX-17 (Lived); Left, right, back to the middle... Taste my skittles?

            by wwmiv on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:24:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Alright then (0+ / 0-)

              I haven't troll-rated a comment in so long I'm not even sure how to do it.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:31:01 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Don't downrate -- you'd get aeou's attention (0+ / 0-)

              I wouldn't want you to have your privileges revoked over a mistake that you already acknowledged.

              (Of course, don't uprate wwmiv's subject comment.)

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:39:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That guy used to follow me. (0+ / 0-)

                Who is he?

                20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

                by aggou on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:54:35 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Some freak (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  aoeu

                  who's part of some (self-appointed) vigilante group that policies the site, I had an unpleasant run in with him myself. I also recognize him as one of the most obnoxious posters denouncing the idea that Democrats and Republicans could ever get along in the thread (here at DailyKos) that originally announced the creation of DKE, presumably he was following you because you're one of the Republicans who came over.

                  This is why I hate these sites that allow "community moderation" it's just the internet equivalent of mob rule.

                  (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                  by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 10:20:03 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  he tries to keep track of trolls and potential (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje, MichaelNY

                  trolls.  Given that promoting Republicans is forbidden on the main site, and admitted Republican like yourself would probably be suspect.

                  Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

                  by James Allen on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:20:31 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Thanks for clearing that up (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I was reading the hidden comments for shits and giggles, and wondering who the heck this "aoeu" person was who was "following" all those banned participants.

                    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                    by Mike in MD on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:38:54 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Reading the hidden comments section (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      lordpet8, David Nir, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                      is usually pretty good.  And it's also very instructive in figuring out what's okay and what's not okay to say on dailykos.

                      The easiest mistake to make is to insult someone.  It's so easy to slip from disagreeing with someone's points to "you're a dumbass for believing that".  And that's how the vast majority of non-trolls end up in hidden comments.

                  •  yeah (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, James Allen, MichaelNY

                    I consider myself a part-time participant in the troll-hunting group of front-pagers, and aeou is generally very helpful in pointing out trolls, both the same-day registrants as well as long-term, more careful trolls.

                    Generally speaking, Republicans are welcome on frontpage dailykos but few if any last unless they hide the fact they are Republicans.  Most self-described Republicans that go for the main page are only here to troll so most kossacks are very suspicious.

                    •  Yeah, (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Skaje, MichaelNY

                      I go there from time to time. I don't really write much anymore, just read.

                      I used to go there quite a lot before I found the old SSP, and I met a lot of very nice people on the main page, but others just didn't like me period, cause I was an R. So I just stopped commenting.

                      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

                      by aggou on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:08:42 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  When everyone you talk to agrees with you (5+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        lordpet8, sacman701, gabjoh, MichaelNY, bfen

                        you start to forget how to interact with those who don't, short of insults and attacks.  This afflicts many of the main page kossacks.

                        It doesn't have to be that way.  I'm pretty far left (as in, -9, -9 on politicalcompass.org), but I don't hate all Republicans or anything like that.  A lot of my relatives are deeply conservative, yet I interact positively with them, even when discussing politics.

            •  As David suggests (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, lordpet8, ArkDem14

              It would be a good idea to respond again to the target comment, and extend your apologies there.

              "I hope; therefore, I can live."
              For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

              by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:54:37 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  I think your comment was uncalled for (11+ / 0-)

      And if anyone deserves an apology, it's the person you responded to. I have absolutely no idea what got your goat (god, a spelling error? really? how petty), but I agree completely with ArkDem that the comment you responded to was pretty thoughtful. If you were gonna pick a time to respond poorly to a comment, the target of your ire was particularly unworthy.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:51:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  While (5+ / 0-)

    we're talking about yard signs, here's a picture of right outside a polling place in Australia.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:01:34 AM PDT

  •  So Carper in DE-Sen is unopposed? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, MichaelNY, supercereal

    I totally forgot that race even existed.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:02:43 AM PDT

  •  WV-Sen: Oh man, this guy just won't quit!! (12+ / 0-)

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    “I can’t find anything in my statement and during my speech that wasn’t true,” Raese told the Charleston Daily Mail. “I’m not apologizing to anybody or any organization. It’s my perfect right to make a speech about meaningful subject matters in this country.”

    He further said that the controversy was a result of Democratic video trackers, playing “gotcha.” “I am not going to be intimidated by a bunch of bullshit,” Raese said.

    Seriously, who took the real John Raese and switched him for a DNC plant put in to make WV Republicans look really really bad.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:13:48 AM PDT

  •  Happy Ben Masel Day! (11+ / 0-)

    Happy Ben Masel Day everybody!

    Link: http://host.madison.com/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:32:09 AM PDT

  •  NC downballot primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ArkDem14, gabjoh

    Does anyone here know anything about our candidates for Labor and Agriculture commissioners?  Or if local Democratic parties even bother endorsing candidates for nonpartisan judicial elections?

    I'm voting for Etherdige for gov and I'm leaning towards Coleman for Lt. Gov, but I haven't heard anything about our candidates for labor and agriculture (the only two downballot offices Republicans hold) or whether we have any shot at winning them.

    •  Sure, I'll advise. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, gabjoh

      Walter Smith for Ag Commish, I scoped out this race a while ago for various reasons and feel pretty strongly about this. He's the former director of something-something county for the FSA, he seems the most credible as he's the only candidate to have earned newspaper endorsements and frankly I like him because he's the only candidate who even makes noises about being protectionist about family farms. His main opponent seems to be a guy called Scott Bryant, who's a Cattle Mogul or something who advises the Forest Service who sits on a bunch of private boards relating to farming. So Smith, but if we couldn't get Troxler in 2008 are we really going to get him now... ?

      For Labor... I actually know very little about the Labor Commish race, there are three candidates I believe. I know a lot of people are all, [swoon] Ty Richardson, but he doesn't seem serious to me. John Brooks is actually a former labor commissioner from many years ago (the 70s) but I believe some people here were saying he's eccentric and corrupt and disliked back when he jumped in so I think that leaves Marlowe Foster... who I don't really get at all. He has one of those resumes where you can't tell if it's impressive or all bullshit, I went ahead and did some peaking around online right now and he seems legit, he was on the executive board of many organizations that seem fairly prominent and important (including the NC Chamber of Commerce -- not my favorite place to pluck candidates from, but now is not the time to be picky) I'd say vote for him and pray like crazy he has legit connections.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 10:56:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  . (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, sawolf

      I voted for Mansfield for Lt. Gov., I think he speaks better than Coleman and I like his background (doctor, small business, baptist preacher) better than Coleman, who says she has spent her life in public service, which to most voters will sound like "career politician." But I think Coleman is favored in the primary and they are both very good candidates.

      Labor Commish: Marlowe Foster is the obvious choice. He has never run for public office before, but he has the endorsements of most of the establishment including many state Sens and Reps. (Linda Garrou, Rick Glazier, Garland Pierce, Doug Berger, Tricia Cotham, Deborah Ross, Grier Martin, etc.), various city council members, and Mayor Allen Joines. The other candidates are pretty sad. Ty Richardson apparently has a DUI on his record... John C. Brooks is a former Labor Commissioner from 77-93, he lost the Dem primary in 92 after a scandalous chicken plant fire and is mostly a joke now. He ran in the 2008 Labor Commish primary and lost. I guess he's sort of becoming a perennial candidate by now. He's 75 years old!

      And Ag Commish, there are two candidates, Walter Smith and Scott Bryant. They both have websites. Bryant's campaign is more organized and he is, as far as I can tell, much more qualified.

      •  Oh yes. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bfen

        I didn't even notice he has mentioned that race but I'd just like to jump back in and strongly second this, definitely vote Mansfield. I've seen videos of him speaking and he's amazing.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:17:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the info (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, lordpet8, gabjoh, bfen

        I don't expect us to beat Cherie Berry or Steve Troxler, but I always vote for every race available on the ballot and I like to think I'm supporting the viable choice (hence looking for whom the local party endorses in non-partisan races).  Electing judges is so stupid... it wouldn't surprise me if undervoting is upwards of 40% compared to amendment 1.

        On another note, I really wish Dalton were running for reelection because I think he'd probably have a better chance of retaining the office than anyone else simply due to name rec.  It's going to piss me off to no end if after he loses the gubernatorial primary we lose the Lt. Gov office by <5% due to McCrory's coattails.

        NC Dems really got royally screwed by A) having our 2001 legislative maps struck down, and B) having the year we lose both chambers be a redistricting year.  Our only saving grace is that we control all but 2 statewide non-federal offices and we have a decent bench with Cooper if he ever moves up and Colwell who I think will run for higher office someday.  The flipside is that Republicans will have a decent bench of House candidates if they don't nominate birther idiots or Virginia Foxx clones.

        •  Oh and Anthony Foxx (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, lordpet8, gabjoh, bfen

          I really hope he runs for governor in 2020 when McCrory is term limited.  He would make an excellent candidate if his popularity holds up in Charlotte.  Mecklenburg County grew by ~35% over the last ten years and will probably keep up that monstrous growth rate, meaning Foxx would have an absolutely huge base for a 2020 run.  More than anyone else I could see him being the 2nd black governor elected to a southern state.

  •  EMILY's endorsements (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

    I'm not always a fan of Emily's List's picks in contested primaries but this is a really good group. Brownley, Sinema, and Boockvar are all favorite candidates of mine this year.
    Brownley has been my Assemblywoman for the last two years, and I've gotten to meet her at a few events. She has been a great legislator at the state level, and I would love to send her to Washington. The top two primary situation certainly makes this an uphill battle.

  •  Raese's comment reminds me (6+ / 0-)

    Of how Walter defended himself for pulling a gun on the guy who stepped across the line in bowling in The Big Lebowski.  "Am I wrong?  He stepped over the line!"  As the Dude said: "You're not wrong Walter you're just an asshole."

  •  I've looked at exit polls (8+ / 0-)

    A Democratic candidate in Utah could win every single Democrat, every single Independent, and 10% of Republicans...and would still lose.

    NY-12 (born and raised), NY-25 (college), Liberal poll junkie and casual video gamer (but not Call of Duty, so don't ask about it.)

    by Commander Shepard on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:03:05 AM PDT

    •  I think Dee Smith could win (0+ / 0-)

      I think Gen. Cooke has an outside shot. But I think Smith really could win this year.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:13:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        But I just said how uphill the battle is, probably more than any other state in the union.

        NY-12 (born and raised), NY-25 (college), Liberal poll junkie and casual video gamer (but not Call of Duty, so don't ask about it.)

        by Commander Shepard on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:17:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's definitely true (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          Then again, at least Democrats do have a geographic base in the state. I don't know if President Obama can hope to win a single county maybe outside not-heavily-Mormon Summit County this year against Mitt Romney, but there's a general (and strong) Democratic trend in growing and rapidly diversifying Salt Lake County.

          It would have been really exciting if Marlin Jensen had gotten on the ticket, because I think that could have really suggested a shift in Mormon politics. Alas, 'twas not to be. Jensen probably would have been dragged through the mud pretty ruthlessly anyway.

          Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:20:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Last night... (10+ / 0-)

    I posted some polls from April/late March/late May (the first electoral-vote.com map, which I should have specified was the very first one) of 2004--just for interest and to make the point that it's still very early ("April 21, 2004 - Bush Tops Kerry In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Bush's Approval Down, But Voters Don't Like Kerry").

    DCCyclone had a long response, that I'd like to discuss a bit.  He says:

    what killed Kerry was the map.

    He went into election day with states like Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Michigan all toss-ups.  That just killed him.  Wisconsin and Iowa, too, were toss-ups, and that hurt, although those are tougher states to take out of play than OR/NM/MN/MI.  And Pennsylvania was a tossup, that also made it tough.

    Here's what I think: What killed Kerry is that he got 48.3% of the popular vote to Bush's 50.7%.  Of course the popular vote doesn't count in and of itself, but as J. Bernstein, Brendan Nyhan, and others have observed, it becomes increasingly difficult for the electoral college to produce a different result than the national popular vote the broader the margin of victory is in the latter.  

    I think they've both referred to Andrew Gelman, who wrote that:

    State-by-state vote swings are more uniform than they used to be
    [...]
    As I’ve discussed before, in 2008 the red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan swing[.]
    [...]
    The past several decades have seen a steady decline in the variation of statewide vote swings. (The big spike in the graph is 1976, when Jimmy Carter did very well in a bunch of southern states that Nixon carried in 1972.)

    To put it another way, the red-blue map is much more stable from election to election than it used to be.

    Given that, had Kerry won the national popular vote, I think it's highly likely that he would have won the electoral college as well.  That's why I don't think national polling is "irrelevant", as some people here have said.

    All of our discussions of the electoral college, in my opinion, should have in mind that if the past is prologue then it's not likely to change the winner except in narrow elections, although we don't always have to be explicitly qualifying everything.   (And this isn't something I came up with, again, it's something I've read from Bernstein and the others.)

    Similarly, I think our discussions of redistricting should always keep in mind that the winner of the national House vote will very likely win the House as well, although in that case targeted House races might have differences in turnout which might account for some of that correlation.  But that's a separate question.  

    As DCCyclone says, "a Republican needs an inside straight to win, and we don't."  As of now, that's true--but as of now, Obama is doing pretty well in national polling.  I would really only consider "the map" to hurt Romney if he were close to tied or winning outright in the national polling or results but at a marked disadvantage in state-by-state polling or results.  Maybe you think that's possible--but it would, apparently, be a departure from recent precedent in a way that's worth exploring.

    So, my question is: Assuming that Romney were close to tied or leading in the national polling, how much of an advantage do you think Obama would have from "the map"?  Keep in mind that your state-by-state results have to add up to the national results.  

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:07:15 AM PDT

    •  RCP gives Obama +2.9 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, atdnext, gabjoh

      we'll call that Obama +3, just to be generous. Even is we assume a uniform swing of 5 points across the board, which wouldn't happen really in the SW, but lets ignore that point for now. A swing of 5 points would to give Romney a narrow 2 point lead nationally, BUT assuming uniform swing, they'd be tied in OH, Obama would lead by mid single digits in CO, almost 10 in NM, 2 points in NV, tied in Florida and Virginia, ect., et. al

      So yes, the short answer here can easily be established: the battlefield favors us, and if uniform swing is a myth (which it is) it favors us even more because logically race would prevent VA, NM, CO, and NV from moving as far in Romney's favor even in a national lead. In other words, it's heads, we win, tails, we win big.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:31:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think your scenario (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        distantcousin, atdnext, gabjoh

        has state-by-state results which add up to its national results?  Your scenario has CO at roughly D+4, NM at D+6, NV at D+2, FL at D+1, VA at D+1.  

        Remember, PVIs have to basically add up to zero (accounting for turnout and population variation).  

        You have most of those states as all much more Democratic relative to the national numbers than they were even in 2008, when FL, VA, OH were won by Obama with a smaller margin than his national average, CO was like D+1 (more like D+0.7), and so on.  

        So what states are making up for that?  Who's is voting for Romney if he's winning nationally by 2 points but losing in basically every swing state?  Whatever current polling says, honestly, I don't see how that's possible--and I think it's another reminder to be skeptical of the fine-grained predictive power of early polling.  It's one thing to say "the nation is getting more diverse, so Romney will have a harder time winning the national popular vote" but I can't really see how "the nation is getting more diverse, so Romney will lose every swing state even if he wins the national popular vote" works out.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:47:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually (0+ / 0-)

          upon checking RCP he would be leading by 1 point in VA and FL, and that's the point, the field is very favorable to us in 2012.

          (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:56:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Again, I see this more as evidence that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext

            current polling isn't going to be a particularly close guide to the final results.  Which states are going to more R+ than they were in 2008, if you're right?  Your scenario has to add up--to have Romney winning nationally by 2 points but losing every swing state (some by large margins) then you have to have Romney winning basically every red state by commensurately huge margins, or coming closer in blue states than McCain did, or something.  To be glib, I'll take arithmetic over early polling any day.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:01:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Romney could narrowly win the popular vote (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, atdnext, gabjoh

        and Obama could still get a sizable electoral college win, if these trends persist.  I think at that point there might be bipartisan efforts to abolish the electoral college.

        And yes I know outright abolishing the college is very difficult (constitutional changes are likely required) but it would put more wind behind efforts like the national popular vote compact between states, in which they would award their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner en masse.

        •  Sizable (0+ / 0-)

          I guess you'd have to define sizeable.  It could happen, but if it did, I don't see Obama breaking 300 EVs.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

          by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:19:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Kerry states (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, askew

            plus New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio puts Obama at 303, Romney at 235.  Perhaps not "sizable", but not particularly close either.  You could argue there's no way Romney wins the popular vote but loses Ohio, and I'd want to agree, but the polling is showing this to be possible.

        •  No he won't (0+ / 0-)

          Everyone who wins the popular vote wins the electoral college, and when they don't:

          1824 - before the two-party system, and even so, nobody got a majority of EVs, so it went to the House of Representatives
          1876 - Tilden won a majority of voters and EVs, but due to Reconstruction fights, Hayes made a deal to win certain EVs in the South in exchange for pulling out national troops, and won by a single EV. So the only reason was bullshit, not vote distribution.
          1888 - Cleveland won popular vote, but Harrison won EV with a 1% squeaker in New York.
          2000 - Gore won popular vote, but Bush won Florida by 537 votes (supposedly).

          As you can see, there is no evidence that you could ever win the popular vote but substantially lose the electoral vote. States haven't been that disparate for all of our history, why would they start now?

          NY-12 (born and raised), NY-25 (college), Liberal poll junkie and casual video gamer (but not Call of Duty, so don't ask about it.)

          by Commander Shepard on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 01:17:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I can't really agree to that... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, DCCyclone, askew, Skaje

          But I do see a valid point in your argument that I can agree to, which is that Obama has a built-in EC advantage this year despite the sometimes wildly fluctuating national poll numbers. Here's the gist of what's happening. Despite seeing some wild and crazy national polls in the last 10 days...

          - Obama still has solid leads in Colorado and Nevada.

          - Obama still has an edge in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

          - Obama is even managing to make Arizona and Missouri competitive.

          DCCyclone has said that what killed Kerry's was having to shore up wavering Blue States while ceding so much Red turf to Bush in 2004, and I think he's right. I think what will kill Romney's campaign is having to shore up wavering Red States while ceding so much formerly-Red-but-now-Blue turf (like Colorado and New Mexico) to Obama.

          •  The most critical states that I can see (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            are Colorado and Virginia.  If Obama holds both of them (and everything I'm seeing indicates he will), then Romney will have to get all the other swing states, as well as somehow take Pennsylvania to win (or Nevada to tie).

            Romney could literally get back North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Indiana but that only gets him to 263.  He needs another state out of the Colorado/Virginia/Nevada/Pennsylvania group, all of which seem to be strongly leaning towards Obama, even as the national polls are close.

    •  If the popular vote were tied (7+ / 0-)

      I think Obama would win all of the Kerry states, plus NM, CO, and NV, with NH being a tossup (along with Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia). That would give him an EV lead of 262-235. He would have 3 paths to victory: win OH, win VA, or win IA + NH. Romney would have to win OH and VA and either IA or NH. So that's a pretty significant advantage to Obama.

      And that's being conservative. I actually think Obama might be better than even money to win VA in a dead-even popular vote scenario.

      •  I think your 262-235 scenario is reasonable (0+ / 0-)

        for a tied vote.  But again, I accept that the electoral college might produce a different outcome than the popular vote in a near-tie scenario.  I think that Ohio would probably go for Romney, though, in that case.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:04:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Another way to ask the question (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt

          is: "at what popular vote outcome do Obama and Romney have even chances to win the electoral vote?" And I would guess the answer to that is somewhere around a 1-1.5% Romney win in the popular vote.

          So yeah, I don't think Obama can win the EV while losing by like 5%. But if my guess here is right, the question becomes: what are the odds that Romney ends up winning the popular vote by 0-1.5% or so? Given the closely divided nature of the electorate, I would guess that there's a 15% chance (number pulled more or less out of my ass; it's really just my best wild guess) that the PV winds up in that range.

          So the upshot is that the electoral map improves Obama's chances of winning by about 15% (according, again, to my ass-based calculations). That is very significant.

          •  I appreciate this perspective (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            Part of what makes all of this a somewhat odd discussion is that, early as it is, I think the odds of Romney winning the popular vote at all are pretty low right now, so we're all potentially talking about outliers.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:07:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  2004 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, ArkDem14

      Had Kerry gotten 120,000 more votes in Ohio, he would have won the election even though he still would have lost the popular vote by over 2%.

      Same with 1976.  Had Ford gotten 12,000 more votes in Ohio, and 15,000 more votes in Mississippi, he would have won the election even though losing the popular vote by 2%.  And, of course, there was 2000.  

      So 3 of the last 9 presidential elections could very easily have been won by the popular vote loser.  

      There is a correlation, but not as strong as you maintain.

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

      by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:44:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kerry lost Ohio 50.8-48.7 (6+ / 0-)

        I.e., he lost Ohio by 2%. You're saying that if only he had done 2% better in this one state he would have won while losing the national vote by 2%.

        I hope the flaw in that logic is evident...

      •  Kerry lost Ohio by 2.11% (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, itskevin, atdnext

        while losing nationally by 2.4%.  Giving Kerry's popular vote deficit in Ohio makes it seem a little more anomalous than it was, I think--if he had won Ohio, then he would have very likely won nationally or come very close.  Similarly, Ford lost Mississippi by 1.88% and lost Ohio by 0.27%--while losing nationally by 2.1%.  (And you might recall that 1976 was a bit of an outlier even to Gelman.)  

        I didn't say it's impossible--I said it's not likely except in (very) narrow elections, as 2000 was.  

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:52:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, SaoMagnifico, atdnext

          most elections the tipping point state margin is fairly close to the national margin.

          2008 was actually kind of weird in that Obama won by 7.3% nationally but the tipping point state was Colorado which he won by 9% (i.e., Romney would have had to win Colorado as well as every other closer state to win the electoral vote).  If the states had swung uniformly to Romney by just under 9%, Obama could have conceivably become president while losing the popular vote by 1.7%.  Of course, states don't swing equally, but the divergence was notable.

          I did the same thing with the 1996 election and found the tipping point state for Bob Dole to be Pennsylvania, which Clinton won by 9.2% (while winning nationally by 8.5%).

          I'll look at other elections and see if I can find larger divergences.

    •  National polling is mostly irrelevant because (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      swings are not universal, and may even be 100% disguised.  Obama could go all gung ho over offshore drilling, and that could lose him x% nationally from the coastal states but gain him that same x% from inland states.

      Similarly, Obama could pick up five more points in CA  if Romney picked some particularly loathsome VP choice who made some snarky attack on CA not being part of the "real US", but that corresponding .5% change nationally would have utterly zero effect on the electoral college race.

      National polls were relevant in the Gore/Kerry era, but the country is so polarized now that national polling is just as likely to be deceptive as illuminating.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:51:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Swings are not uniform, but (2+ / 0-)

        Gelman has them as getting more uniform, not less uniform, over time--with 2008 very much a part of the trend, as he sees it.  I don't take that as gospel, exactly, but I do think it requires a similarly comprehensive analysis to rebut.

        If you look at his Kerry vs. Obama scatterplot, the 2008 swing states are all pretty closely clustered around the same line, with NM and IN the biggest outliers (and I don't really think of NM as a swing state anymore, honestly).

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:55:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kerry and Gore won CA by about 10% (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, lordpet8, LordMike, askew

          while more or less tying the popular vote nationally.  Obama won CA by 24 while winning by 7 nationally.  Obama leads CA now by 30, while nationally leading by about the same as in 2008.

          Swings are getting far less uniform, not more.  Romney could easily lose the popular vote by a lot and win the electoral college because some states are not moving much, while the biggest states are fluctuating a lot.

          We've seen lots of national poll numbers this week, some were close some were not (and Gallup/Ras tracking absurdly has Romney ahead).  But because of 1) polling as a science is in a disgraceful state, and 2) swings nationally are close to irrelevant, we know Obama now is far in the lead, if only because he is ahead by 6 points in Ohio.

          The country is very polarized.  Some states are very polarized.  Some states are not.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:26:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Let's see... (0+ / 0-)

            2008: Obama got 61% in CA and 52.9% nationally, so CA is D+8.1
            2004: Kerry got 54.3% in CA and 48.3% nationally, so CA is D+6
            2000: Gore got 52.6% in CA and 48.4% nationally, so CA is D+4.2.

            Looking at things in terms of swing: Obama increased the national Democratic percentage by 4.6%, and increased the CA Democratic percentage by 6.7%.  So, looking at vote share, he only did a little bit better than national swing would have predicted--he "should have" gotten 58.9%, and instead he got 61%.  You're going to need a bit more than that to convince me that "Swings are getting far less uniform, not more."

            After all, CA is just one state!  Look at Gelman's scatterplot.  Granted, the slope of the line that most states are clustered around isn't exactly one, so there might not be a uniform additive swing, but there does seem to have been a fairly uniform linear swing.  And the deviations, I think, are more explicable by campaign effects and home state effects than by polarization (e.g., Bush apparently bothered to campaign in CA in 2004, and Obama bothered to campaign in NC and part of NE in 2008).

            Here is Obama%-Kerry% in a few states:

            Indiana: 10.7%
            North Dakota: 9%
            Montana: 8.6%
            Vermont: 8.5%
            Utah: 8.2%
            Nebraska: 7.9%
            New Mexico: 7.8%
            Nevada: 7.3%
            Virginia: 7.1%
            California: 6.7%
            Colorado: 6.7%

            Nationally+2%: 6.6%

            South Dakota: 6.4%
            Wisconsin: 6.5%
            Connecticut: 6.3%
            North Carolina: 6.3%
            Michigan: 6.2%
            Maryland: 6%
            Idaho: 5.7%

            Nationally+1%: 5.6%

            Georgia: 5.6%
            Texas: 5.4%
            Oregon: 5.35%
            New Jersey: 5.3%
            Kansas: 5%
            Washington: 4.9%
            Iowa: 4.7%.
            Nationally: 4.6%
            New York: 4.5%
            Maine: 4.1%.
            South Carolina: 4%
            New Hampshire: 3.9%
            Florida: 3.8%
            Pennsylvania: 3.6%

            Nationally-1%: 3.6%

            Rhode Island: 3.5%
            Wyoming: 3.4%
            Minnesota: 3%.
            Missouri: 3.2%
            Mississippi: 3.2%
            Ohio: 2.8%

            Nationally-2%: 2.6%

            Alabama: 1.9%
            Kentucky: 1.6%
            Oklahoma: 0%
            Tennessee: -0.7%
            West Virginia: -0.7%
            Louisiana: -2.3%
            Arkansas:-5.7%

            Ok, I think that's everywhere other than MA, IL, HI, AZ, DE, and AK, which I don't think are comparable due to home state effects (and, if you like, omit Texas as well).  Also, I hope I added right.

            Is that perfectly uniform?  Of course not!  But, really, is it all that scattered?  Obama did about 5 points better than Kerry nationally, and he did about 4-6 points better than Kerry did in many states.

            Certainly, it seems like some states have changing demographics that helped them swing more, and other states may have campaign effects, and still other states might have been a bad fit for Obama (all of which are related).  

            But I don't think it's fair to deny the relative uniformity and linearity of the swing, with a few home-state and regional exceptions (again, look at the scatterplot).

            Even if you think I'm underplaying the variance the 2008 swing, that's not enough to demonstrate that  "Swings are getting far less uniform, not more."  You need a comprehensive historical analysis for that.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 03:54:15 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  since presidential elections are relatively rare (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, DCCyclone

              I'm suspicious of any general claim about long-run tendencies. For instance the last 5 have been reasonably close, with the loser getting over 150 EV in each case, so close elections look like the norm. But if you'd been surveying trends prior to 1992, you'd probably have thought that crushing victories are the norm, competitive elections the exception.

              And, though I appreciate this isn't your intention, putting stress on uniformity of swing gives the impression that the PVI isn't going to change much going forward. Go back just 9 data points to Carter's victory and you find a map that looks completely perverse from today's perspective. The Democratic candidate wins Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi while losing California, Illinois, Vermont and Connecticut. Over enough time the issues, candidates, parties and population are all likely to change substantially, so this isn't a field in which the trend is a great friend.

              •  I definitely agree that we should be careful about (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                drawing long-range inferences from the relatively few number of Presidential elections.  Definitely.  

                But I still think we should try to be aware of what the current and past trends have been, to better understand how much our theories, predictions, or scenarios constitute a break from precedent.  We can't really know how likely a given break from precedent is, but I think we should be aware of it.

                I also don't think we have to choose between emphasizing long-term changes in PVI and emphasizing short-term relative uniformity in swing.  Small changes add up to big changes.  In 20 or 30 years, who knows what the map will look like?  But in 2012, the swing will probably be relatively uniform.  

                Or maybe not!  I've got no crystal ball.  But I do think it's fairly unlikely that Romney will win nationally by even a couple of points while losing basically every swing state from the past election, and I'm pretty comfortable with that whatever April polls say.  

                My guess is that the national and state polls will reconcile going forward--maybe that means Obama will take on a commanding lead in the national polls, or maybe that means the state-by-state polls will narrow.  But, again, no crystal ball.

                26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:07:51 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  And to nitpick a little bit (0+ / 0-)

            "polarization" isn't the same as "high variance in swing".  

            If anything, in a highly polarized environment, I might expect low variance in swing--if nearly all voters are highly committed partisans, which is how I understand "polarization", than the various swings might be clustered closely around zero, with few voters changing their minds in between elections.

            If I understand you correctly, you're saying that there's high variance in polarization.  I'd be interested in an elaboration on that point, though.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:15:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, I'm saying what is obviously true (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Some states are getting more one-partyish, while other states are not.  New York and CA in particular are polling as huge wipeouts this year, moreso than 00/04 and moreso than 08.

              If Obama wins CA and NY by 30%, and wins the popular vote overall by 3%, that means he's losing the other 48 states by about 1.5%, and very likely the electoral college.  

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:09:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Again, this is all backwards (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          My whole point is that the national polls are more candy than instructive.

          The state polls are what matter, and using 2000 and 2004 as benchmarks for the "tossup" map, Obama has a clear edge now no matter how "close" national polls say it is.

          Kerry barely lost, falling 2% shy of 50 and 18 electoral votes shy of 270.  And for him, Minnesota was a tossup, and North Carolina wasn't.  Wisconsin was a tossup, and Virginia wasn't.  New Mexico was a tossup, and Colorado wasn't.  These are all critical distinctions from Obama not just in 2008, but from now.  And there are no comparable states going the other way except arguably Iowa, and I doubt anyone really thinks Iowa won't revert to tossup eventually as the effects of the long GOP caucus campaign fade.  The stuff I just noted above in this paragraph tell you more about the state of the election than any of the national polls.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:01:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Correction/Clarification (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        impossibility theorist

        As Gelman has it, swings were less uniform from 2004-2008 as they were from 2000-2004, but 2004-2008 is still the second-smallest swing of any pair of consecutive elections since 1952-1956.  So it's part of the overall trend, but it wasn't a decrease from 2000-2004.

        Again, maybe 2000-2004 was the minimum, and swings are going to get less uniform over time again, but if that's part of our scenarios, we should recognize that it would be a pretty big change.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:58:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think the reason tht he's so strong is that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, bfen

      while his numbers are holding up or improving in some states like Ohio, the upper midwest, and the southwest, the states where he's polling weaker, like Oregon, don't really matter.  I'm guessing a lot of states where he did really well, but didn't ultimately matter to the outcome, like Utah, Idaho, and Oregon, because they are not tossup or even really swing states to begin with, he'll probably do worse this year, while in many states that should be considered swing states, like Virginia & Colorado, he's doing very well in,are probably the reason why he doesn't look great in the national polls but does have an electoral vote advantage.

      Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

      by James Allen on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:18:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's possible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        As I said, I also think some of it is apples-to-oranges comparisons between different pollsters and polling averages with different components, as well as just how damn early it is.  

        It's something to keep an eye on, of course.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:00:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not so convinced (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Obama's also polling a bit weaker in PA, IA and NH so far as I can see and these definitely all do matter in a close election as they had roughly 3 point Dem leans in 2008.

        It's a lot of guesswork this early anyway since polls are coming along fairly infrequently in most states and some of the pollsters don't have a great record - 1 or 2 rogue polls can completely skew the picture.

        My best guess is that Obama currently has about a 4 or 5 point lead nationally, in which case I get a pretty long list of states that could be really tight in the event of it ending up roughly even nationally.

        I'm afraid I don't buy the idea that Obama is ahead in almost all the swing states currently yet behind nationally - that would require a very weird and implausible redistribution of votes since 2008. Much more likely is that Gallup and Rasmussen are off target with their trackers.

        •  that's definitely true about those three states (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Lewis & Clark Law class of 2015

          by James Allen on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:14:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not weaker in NH, no (0+ / 0-)

            The last UNH poll had Obama recovering nicely, and in fact ahead of Mitt by 8 or so and with positive job approval that hit 50.  Also, Politico reported soon after that on an interal Dem poll that showed basically the same thing as UNH, with Obama recovered and doing well and up on Mitt.

            The last NBC battleground map in February corroborated the trend and moved NH from lean R to tossup.  It was one of only six or so changes from NBC's previous map in November, another being they moved Iowa from tossup to lean R because Obama did, indeed, suffer a slip there.  They also moved NM, WI, and MI all to lean Obama from tossup.

            Also, PA looks like Obama has had some recovery there, as polls this year have been a small bit stronger on average than last year.  It's still fairly called a tossup, but he's doing well enough that I think most people now wouldn't expect him to lose it.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:08:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  interesting question, but very hard to answer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      Obama would have won in 2008 even with a 1% or so McCain lead if all states had swung evenly from their actual outcome, which seems to give him a potential edge (especially if, as you argue, swing is becoming more uniform from election to election).

      You then have to look at which states near the middle may be leaning more one way or the other this time round. It's early days, but my impression is that there may be more states this time round which are very close to the national average - FL, OH and NC, which had R leans, are all looking a little stronger for Obama so far, while PA, IA and NH, which all had D leans, are all looking a bit softer. CO and VA, which were both close to the average last time, are looking likely to be in a similar position again in 2012.

      So if the popular vote is extremely close, there could be a lot of real nailbiters - my top candidates at this stage would be CO, VA, NH, IA, OH, FL, PA. Since I'm giving Obama a 233-206 excluding these 7 he does have a slightly "better map" in the sense that he has mostly 2 or 3 state combinations from these 7 tight ones to get to 270, while Romney generally needs 4 or 5.

      •  Another point that isn't unique to me, but (0+ / 0-)

        It'd be a mistake to treat these as independent probabilities.  Of course there is some degree of independence, but just because there are 6 toss-ups doesn't mean that the likeliest outcome is necessarily that the parties split them 3-3.

        I don't think the swing will be uniform down to the percentage.  But I do think it will probably be pretty close to uniform almost everywhere, with the biggest exceptions being where the campaigning goes from nonexistent to active or vice-versa.  (In other words, a Nebraska or an Arkansas.)

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:04:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  My view is you're looking at it backwards (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Rather than look at the national polls as a signal for where the electoral vote is headed, I'm looking at the electoral map as a signal for where the national outcome might be headed.

      In other words, look at where you think the state-by-state map is, and that tells us the likely outcome.

      The problem with the national polls is they showed no significant difference between most of 2004 compared to most of 2008, and yet we had radically different outcomes.

      But in most of 2008, we looked to have a somewhat different map, with a bunch of states in play for us that aren't normally in play.  And some states that normally were in play in 2000 and 2004 were off the table early, in our favor.  Those would include Oregon and Washington state, the latter never close to a tossup in 2000/2004 but still not treated as a sure thing for our side those years.

      What I'm saying is that the lay of the land right now looks like 2008 rather than 2000/2004.  And the national polls don't reveal that!

      People talk about this "close" race now, but the national polling is no closer than was the battle vs. McCain.  Indeed, Obama is doing clearly better now in several battlegrounds than he did at this time 4 years ago...Florida, for example, looked rough for us through much of the year, we clearly trailed until late.

      For the sake of comparison, look at the most recent NBC/WSJ battleground map for this year, and compare to their final battleground map in 2008, immediately before the election.  The NBC political team this February already was giving Obama everything they gave him in mid-October 2008 except for three states:  Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Iowa.  And they had PA and NH as tossups this February, which is exactly where they categorized them for much of 2008 before moving them in the fall to Obama's column.  Meanwhile, the tossups from this February don't exclude any state but Missouri from the mid-October '08 list that was tossup or better for us.

      I think the national polls are deceptive and the race isn't as close as they suggest unless and until we see Obama slipping in some states where he has a clear edge but Gore and Kerry didn't, and/or Obama is slipping and clearly falling behind in some states he won last time but where Gore and Kerry couldn't treat as first-tier opportunities.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 08:36:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Redist: It would be funny if (7+ / 0-)

    the Supremes accepted the argument on the even/odd splits, then decided to throw out the entire map.  It is just odd that Van Hollen got into such a conniption about the drawing of one line affecting 2 seats that were going to be safe Dem no matter what and yet by proceeding with the appeal, he could risk the entire map.  However, especially after what happened with Texas, I doubt that would happen, but there is a chance.

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-23 (College: Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations), WI-05 (Home)

    by glame on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 11:53:16 AM PDT

  •  MN HD-8B (6+ / 0-)

    I know this is a little down in the weeds. But this is a race that is starting to generate a little steam on the DFL side.

    Republican Mary Franson is essentially Michele Bachmann, without the attention to details, the filter, or the law degree. I won't get into it here, but she has said some things that have.... drawn attention to herself.

    Bob Cunniff is going to be her opponent, and he is a Tim Walz style DFLer, down to the profession, and coaching the same sport (football). He also has decent name recognition from his time on the radio on a local Alexandria station. This is a tough district for a DFLer, but Peterson wins here most years, and if any Republican can lose this district, it's Franson.

    With the MN-GOP the laughing stock of the state parties nationally, Franson is going to be on her own. And Cunniff is going to be getting some of the finest staffers, and backing from the DLCC and the MN-DFL.

    •  What's the lean of this district? (0+ / 0-)

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:07:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Just curious, what district is Carly Melin (0+ / 0-)

      running in?  I ask because she seems like someone that has potential.

      All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently NY-23 (College: Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations), WI-05 (Home)

      by glame on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:09:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ahhh the one who compared food stamp recipients (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Mark27

      to wild animals... ref http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      Thought I recognized her... (Been through Alec lots of times.) Ds can still win the area on occasion. Haven't checked the lines, but it's pretty close to Hoffman, the home of the Andersons, ref the ones who said in '08: "Norm's gotta go"

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:30:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Alex was cleft in three (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        It really is a bizarre way to draw the lines. The district includes NE Douglas (Alexandria, for those not "in the know") as well as eastern Ottertail County. Ottertail County is perhaps the most Republican county in the state, but the population center is on the western side around Fergus Falls.

        This is a huge uphill climb, but it isn't a place that is unwinnable by a DFLer (I am looking at you Carver and Wright Counties)

        •  Alec is like 10k people (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27

          And it's like an island of culture relative to the rest of the area. Perhaps the state leg lines were not part of the court drawn maps?

          I gather that the area is sort of a boundary for farmers -- it's more difficult north of Alec if I remember the stories correctly. (Don't remember if it's precipitation or soil conditions.) But I think that would be the kind of thing that would split rural areas politically.

          "I hope; therefore, I can live."
          For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

          by tietack on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:51:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  is this a special? (0+ / 0-)

      Also, what are the odds of Democrats retaking the State Legislature?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:34:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No. There will be no more specials this year (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        Minnesota does not hold special elections when the legislature is out of session and won't meet again until after the next election. For instance, Senator Koenen's former house district will be vacant until the November election (not that it exists in it's current form anymore after redistricting).

        With how the MN GOP is literally in shambles right now (it is really bad, for those who haven;t been following). They may actually  get evicted from their HQ because they can't make rent on their modest building. It really is that big of a disaster. I would put the odds at taking the senate at about 90% or higher. The house at probably 80%. And I tend to be conservative when it comes to predictions.

        •  i was surprised at how badly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          Democrats got murdered at the legislative level in 2010, and a couple of prominent statewide offices were almost lost to far-right teabaggers with limited funds.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:57:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I personally think we got murdered (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, OGGoldy

            because we had Dayton as our nominee.  He isn't a DFLer who can win over suburbanites and he cost us a lot of seats there.  Also means that I think Mpls mayor RT Rybak and former Speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher would've been better nominees.  They wouldn't have been painted as tax the rich candidates, the narrative that both candidates were too extreme wouldn't have developed (at least for that), and we would've maintained some of our gains in the suburbs.  At the least we could've kept the state Senate with one of our other major candidates.

            Us winning SoS, Auditor, and AG, along with Dayton's razor thin means statewide we are a true blue state.  But you break it down to state legislative seats and it gets tougher.

            •  But others, well-informed with MN politics (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Like OCGold and Mark27 said that Dayton was probably the strongest candidate out of all the Democrats, with his name recognition, financial position, among other things.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles

              by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 21, 2012 at 03:19:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I disagree with Mark (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                And the screen name is OGGoldy. Two G's. But that's minor.

                 was personally an early and avid supporter of Rybak's. In fact, I had been a volunteer intern in his office previously, which was my first political job of any type, ever. And I was vehemently opposed to Entenza and Dayton ignoring the process. So Dayton was the 3rd candidate I supported that particular election. The DFL dodged a bullet with the Republicans nominated someone as messed up as Emmer. Seifert would have wiped the floor with Dayton.

              •  I Still Feel That Way..... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                .....although Dayton has a track record of underwhelming performances at the clutch, which he lived up to in both the primary and general election in 2010, but he still won.  I have my doubts whether R.T. Rybak or Kelliher would have done as well as Dayton did in northern Minnesota.  And in 2010, that was the difference.  Particularly with Horner in the race in 2010, there was an easy escape hatch for voters who didn't like Emmer and didn't want to vote Democrat in what was a Republican year.  In my opinion, Mark Dayton was the only Democrat who ran in 2010 who was capable of winning.

      •  I'd say we've got a decent shot at (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, Commander Shepard

        winning both chambers of the legislature. The MN GOP is still in a dismal shape from poor financing and various scandals.

        23, male, gay, Atari Democrat. CA-01(former) CA-41(current)

        by lordpet8 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:55:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This would be a pickup, yes? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      This I'm assuming is an election in Fall 2012, not an upcoming special election. Considering the tight majority the GOP has, swinging a district like this would be huge for Democrats.

      And well, this...

      In March 2012, Franson compared people who receive food stamps to wild animals.[7] After Star Tribune journalist Jon Tevlin tried to clarify her position, she issued a press release calling him a "voice for the dependency lobby."[8]

      I tend to find that people who attack the Star Tribune as a leftist publisher are on their own planet. Sure, they usually endorse the Democrat for governor, but their downballot endorsements are far more even-handed. It pissed me off when they didn't endorse anyone in MN-08 - it could have helped Oberstar overcome the Duluth News Tribune's endorsement of Cravaack, where they were overrun by teabaggers.

  •  Ras Ohio: Obama by 4 (7+ / 0-)

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn.

    by Paleo on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:25:45 PM PDT

  •  Charlie Crist praises Obama (15+ / 0-)

    link

    Imagine four years ago hearing that Charlie Crist, a potential McCain VP choice, would be an independent, and possibly maybe endorsing Obama.

  •  CA-24: His reports have previously not made sense (5+ / 0-)

    He pulled a trick a couple of times awhile back to inflate his finance reports, he'd loan his campaign like 250k and then pay himself right back. Not sure what he was trying to accomplish then. As for this latest report, it just looks amateurish, rather than from someone who has run multiple winning campaigns.

    25, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 12:35:14 PM PDT

  •  That's a very interesting post from David J (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I wonder what it would look like if you only applied to favorability among Republicans?

    26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 01:06:31 PM PDT

    •  Doesn't change it a lot (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, MichaelNY

      In fact, the correlation may be a little weaker if it's just Republicans, because they like some cities in dark red states that also have high Hispanic populations.

      The top 5 for Republicans only are Dallas (+47), Phoenix (+42), Houston (+40), Seattle (+36), and Portland (+36). In fact, you'd have to generalize that Republicans just don't like cities as much, because there are only a few cities that are more favorable to Republicans than to Democrats (Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Salt Lake City).

      For Dems only, the top 5 are Seattle (+53), Boston (+47), NYC (+47), Portland (+46), and Washington DC (+44).

      DC is also the most polarizing city (+44 for Dems vs. -24 for GOPers, a differential of 68). The next most polarizing are Chicago (+37 vs. -24: 61), LA (+22 vs. -37: 59), San Francisco (+42 vs. -9: 51), and  Detroit (-8 vs. -41: 33).

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 03:11:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC Redistricting - Judges Order More Documents (8+ / 0-)

    from the NC legislature and their attorneys:

    Some North Carolina judges have ordered Republican legislative leaders and attorneys who worked on redistricting maps last year to provide more documents requested by Democratic elected officials and allies challenging the maps in court.

    The three-judge panel hearing two lawsuits ruled Friday there are no exceptions to a law that makes drafted bills and other confidential redistricting requests by lawmakers public once congressional and General Assembly district maps become law.

    http://www.wral.com/...
    •  If there's a smoking gun (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, sulthernao, MichaelNY

      Republicans will get their comeuppance and get the same treatment Democrats got in 2003.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:18:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Raleigh N&O had a little bit more detail (4+ / 0-)
        Lawyers for Democrats and the non-profits fighting the redistricting plans also wanted to see information prepared by private lawyers Thomas Farr and Michael Carvin, private lawyers GOP legislative leaders hired to give them redistricting advice.

        Their law firms are legislative employees, the three-judge panel, because they each served as consultants and counsel to legislators and were paid with state money.

        http://projects.newsobserver.com/...

        Hmmm... I bet the GOP wishes they had used their own money, instead of taxpayer money, for these gerrymandering specialists.

        That bit of greed may just come back to bite them now.

  •  MT-Gov: Bullock ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, MichaelNY

    That's a valiant effort but I don't think a roundabout argument about saving money in legal bills can hold a candle to SCARY OBAMACARE 500 BILLION DOLLARS IN CUTS TO YOUR MEDICARE!!!!!

    •  I really wish (0+ / 0-)

      Jim Hood and Cortez Masto hadn't joined the PPACA lawsuit, it allows assholes like the RGA to say it was bipartisan.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 04:57:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They haven't. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        No Democrat has, aside from the A-G of MO, but he only signed an amicus brief.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:02:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Buddy Caldwell did, but he has switched parties since then.

          NY-12 (born and raised), NY-25 (college), Liberal poll junkie and casual video gamer (but not Call of Duty, so don't ask about it.)

          by Commander Shepard on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:06:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, but that was partially because (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Jindal threatened to cut the A-G's budget if he didn't join the suit.  Although, to be fair, Caldwell probably wanted to sue and the threat against his office was sufficient to nudge him into doing so.

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:08:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  What is this then? (0+ / 0-)

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

          by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:20:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I realize that this comment (0+ / 0-)

            may make me sound like an ass. But I just want to understand, haha.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:21:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's ok, that map perplexes me too. (0+ / 0-)

              I guess in MS, the legislature may have voted to end-run the A-G.  And Sandoval may have found some way to sue as well.  but I dunno

              "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

              by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:22:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I actually don't know (0+ / 0-)

            it need not take a GOP A-G to sue though.

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:21:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Huh, that's weird (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Iowa has a Dem A-G, but they're suing too (according to that map).

            "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

            by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:23:09 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That had to circumvent the A.G. if true (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, KingofSpades

              I once knew Iowa A.G. Tom Miller as a mentor and friend, and he's both what I'd call a generic liberal (he wouldn't use that word regarding himself in public!) and a strong Obama supporter (he is very public about that!).  He would never willingly join this lawsuit.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:12:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  It won't flip the MT race. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, sulthernao, bfen

      And framing not suing over it in budgetary terms is effective.

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:03:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A budgetary framing of not suing is more effective (0+ / 0-)

        in state government races as most states are on tight budgets and wasting money on a political lawsuit can be a negative.

        "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

        by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 05:05:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney making RNC delegates sign (0+ / 0-)
  •  Obama's share of the 53.7 million (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sulthernao, askew, DCCyclone

    is 46.6 million. High burn rate, but with all of the offices he has operating, that is to be expected. 37.7 million spent

    http://www.politico.com/...

    •  What's intriguing is the digital (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      He spent $6.7M on online ads!

      And another story I'd read recently said a majority of OFA's Chicago hq staff were in the digital department.

      The only thing I don't quite understand is why he's got offices in far-flung places where his campaign concedes they won't compete.  North Little Rock has an office as of less than a month ago!  I've never read or heard an explanation for that.  It seems an awfully expensive and inefficient way to merely project an image of strength or whatnot.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 20, 2012 at 09:17:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hadn't heard about the Little Rock office (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        However, I do know he has offices in 47 states (That costs big, big bucks). So if I had to pick 3 states in which he wouldn't have an office, Arkansas wouldn't be on the list. More likely It'd be Utah, Idaho and Oklahoma.

        This is going to be an expensive campaign. And I have to admit I am a little startled by the burn rate. Obama burned through more money than every Republican candidate raised, combined.

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