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Leading Off:

Illinois Primaries: For the most part, Tuesday night's congressional primaries in Illinois wound up being pretty one-sided affairs. The marquee matchup, between Republican Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Don Manzullo in IL-16, was supposed to be close, but Kinzinger won 56-44. (It was also a win for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who took the risky and unusual step of backing Kinzinger.) And two other prominent contests were utter blowouts: In IL-02 (D), Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. demolished ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson by over 40 points, and in IL-08 (D), Tammy Duckworth beat Raja Krishnamoorthi by two-to-one.

IL-10 (D) defied expectations, with businessman Brad Schneider beating netroots fave Ilya Sheyman 47-39. A late PPP poll indicated Sheyman had a big lead, prompting the firm to apologize for missing the mark and take a look at what might have gone wrong. But in IL-12, Republican Jason Plummer and Democrat Brad Harriman both won, as expected, as did ex-Rep. Bill Foster in IL-11 and Cheri Bustos in IL-17, both Democrats.

Finally, in IL-13 (D), the race was too close to call when we put the Daily Digest to bed. Physician David Gill had a 52-48 lead over prosecutor Matt Goetten with 89% reporting, but ballot issues in Macoupin County meant that no precincts had been counted there as of midnight Eastern time. Macoupin is likely to favor Goetten, but whether it will be enough is an open question.

Senate:

FL-Sen: Too bad: Republican dirty trickster Roger Stone won't run for Senate after all (not that I ever imagined he would). Stone agrees that his absence from the race is unfortunate, saying: "Pity. Would have been spirited campaign. I would have run anti-war, pro-marijuana, pro-small gov't., anti-tax, pro-personal freedom campaign."

MA-Sen: This is why I told you all to vote for Massachusetts in PPP's "where should we poll?" poll last week: Their brand-new survey has Elizabeth Warren leading Scott Brown by 46-41. These numbers come after four polls in a row showed Scott Brown leading, though one was from a GOP pollster, one from Scott Rasmussen, and two from college pollsters who don't go into the field all that often. Still, this should assuage some of the recent hand-wringing over the race, though Brown's talents and money (both his own and from third-party organizations) will ensure this contest remains a dogfight. You can click the link for our full analysis at Daily Kos Elections.

ME-Sen: You know you're doing something wrong when both Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman agree with each other—and not you. The Senate's two current independents both say what everyone else has said: There's no way Angus King can avoid caucusing with a political party if he's elected to succeed Olympia Snowe. Says Sanders: "I am on five important committees and that is important to me. I honestly don't know how it is possible (not to caucus with a party). I just don't know how you do it otherwise." No kidding.

King keeps sounding like someone who refuses to understand basic Senate procedure, though, saying once again that he wants "to caucus with either side on an issue-by-issue basis." It's like he thinks "caucus with" means "vote with," when in fact it means, "get committee assignments from." There does, however, finally seem to be glimmer of recognition from King that he'll have to give up his delusions: for the first time, he's said that a refusal to caucus "may not be possible." There's no "may" about it.

MO-Sen, MO-Gov: State Auditor Tom Schweich says he'll finish out his term and won't run for any other office, which dashes GOP hopes of finding a savior Senate candidate. Schweich had also considered the governor's race, but that's now out, too.

MO-Sen: Free-spending businessman John Brunner is back on the airwaves with a new ad (reportedly backed by a $100 buy) touting his alleged job creation abilities—sort of a remarkable thing, given that his family's company, Vi-Jon, laid off workers the very same month Brunner entered the Senate race. The spot also features a really cheesy effect at about 15 seconds in—you can watch it at the link.

ND-Sen: This is pretty funny, and a great catch by the eagle eyes at North Decoder: In GOP Rep. Rick Berg's newest ad, one of his purported "man-on-the-street" supporters actually turns out to be the husband of a staffer, Berg's constituent services director. Berg really didn't need any more self-inflicted wounds on the paid media front: He's previously been busted for using cheesy stock photos of senior citizens to stand in for constituents in his mailers, and for virtually copying a television ad from a former Virginia legislator.

NE-Sen: I encourage everyone to vote for Nebraska in PPP's newest "where should we poll?" poll.

NV-Sen: Rasmussen: Dean Heller (R-inc): 47, Shelley Berkeley (D): 40.

NY-Sen: As expected, the New York Conservative Party has given its backing to activist Wendy Long, which means that Democrats should root for anyone but her to win the GOP primary. If George Maragos or Bob Turner is the Republican nominee but Long remains on the Conservative line, then the right-wing vote will be split, making Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's life that much easier. (However, since Long is an attorney, the Cons may be able to pry her off the line if need be by getting her nominated for a judgeship.)

In related no-surprise news, Gillibrand also once again picked up the backing of the Working Families Party.

VA-Sen: Pretty much every time a poll comes out of the Virginia Senate race, it's tempting to merely point out the obvious and say, "Yet another survey showing a neck-and-neck race!" But actually, if you look at all the polling, Democrat Tim Kaine has been on top more often than not. Sure, the leads have been narrow, but wouldn't you rather be the guy who consistently is up by a few rather than down by a few? And if you click that second link, you'll also see that Roanoke College appears to have some quality control issues (+13 R, followed by +3 R, then +8 R). If you dial them out, then George Allen has only ever led three times. And Tuesday's new Quinnipiac numbers are in the same vein: Kaine is up 47-44, and just as importantly, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-42, his widest margin to date.

While we're on the race, I'd really like to know how Allen thinks he can get away with this: The Republican ex-senator is simply refusing to take a position on Virginia's super-controversial new law which requires women seeking an abortion to first undergo an abdominal ultrasound. As GOP ex-Rep. Tom Davis says: "By refusing to say where you are, you almost get saddled with it anyway." You also look like a toolbag who's afraid to confront serious issues.

Gubernatorial:

RI-Gov: Longtime former state Auditor General Ernest Almonte says he's "seriously considering" a gubernatorial bid in 2014. The Providence Journal says that he would "most likely run as a Democrat."

House:

NM-01: Albuquerque city councilor Dan Lewis unexpectedly dropped out of the GOP primary on Tuesday, just a couple of days after saying he'd stay in the race. Lewis hadn't raised a ton ($220K), but that was almost three times as much former Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones's haul so far ($80K)—and now she becomes the probable frontrunner for the Republican nod, though notably, Lewis declined to endorse her. Retired Army Sgt. Gary Smith is also still in the contest, and while Arnold-Jones undoubtedly has greater name rec, Smith has actually outraised her, too. Indeed, Arnold-Jones doesn't exactly cut a formidable profile (she took just 3% in the 2010 gubernatorial primary), so Lewis's departure is definitely good news for Democrats.

NY-09: Shortest hypothetical campaign ever? One moment, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz was rumored to be interested in taking on Rep. Yvette Clarke in the Democratic primary in the redrawn 9th; the very next, he said he had "strongly considered" the race but won't pull the trigger. This would likely have been a pretty wild contest, given that this district is majority-black and Markowitz is white—especially if you recall the kind of attacks hurled at David Yassky in the 2006 primary when this seat was open. But like Yassky (who nearly won), Markowitz might have benefited from a split field, since attorney Sylvia Kinard (who, like Clarke, is black) is also running. Now, though, we'll see if Kinard has the chops to take down Clarke in a one-on-one contest.

NY-17: It sounds like hedge fund manager Joe Carvin is moving quickly: A day after he was rumored to be interested in a run against Dem Rep. Nita Lowey, a local GOP official says Carvin is "definitely in," and the Republican who had already been running, Mark Rosen, is dropping out.

NY-18, NY-19: A couple of stories from the Hudson Valley, where local Democratic parties are busy making endorsements. In NY-18, the Orange County Dems gave their backing to physician Rich Becker, who took two-thirds of the weighted vote over a crowded field. Wappingers Falls Mayor Matt Alexander got 19% and Tuxedo Park Mayor Tom Wilson 15%. Newcomer Sean Maloney won no votes. (About 52% of population of the redrawn 18th lives in Orange, by far the largest county in the district.)

And one county up the river in NY-19, Ulster Democrats endorsed attorney Julian Schreibman over Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner by 4-to-1. (A quarter of the new 19th is comprised of Ulster, again, the biggest county in the district.) Tyner says he plans to forge on to the primary, though he's been running since last August and has yet to file a single fundraising report.

NY-22: Great news: Longtime Maurice Hinchey aide Dan Lamb will still run in the 22nd District... which means he'll go up against GOP freshman Richard Hanna! Lamb had explored a bid in the Hinchey's old 22nd, but his boss's seat got dismantled in redistricting. I would have expected Lamb to land in the 23rd, since his hometown of Freeville got moved into that district. But as Lamb notes in his announcement press release, he runs Hinchey's Binghamton district office, which is located in the 22nd. In any event, this move gives Democrats legitimate challengers to every single Republican in the state except for Peter King in the new 2nd—but even he might draw stiff opposition if Nassau County DA Kathleen Rice gets in.

PA-12: At this point, these "union endorses Mark Critz" stories have gotten very repetitive, and it would be much bigger news if a labor group endorsed his Democratic primary rival, Jason Altmire. But this one is a bit different: The Beaver-Lawrence Central Labor Council just gave their backing to Critz, even though they're located in Altmire's part of the district. This sort of thing is probably Critz's best hope for blunting Altmire's 2-to-1 geographic advantage.

PA-18: I guess Rep. Tim Murphy's just playing it safe: Even though he has an absurd fundraising edge and a huge lead in his own polling over former congressional staffer Evan Feinberg, he's going on the air with an ad railing against Obamacare (which you can watch at the link). It sounds like a small buy, though: It's only airing on Fox News. The primary is on April 24.

WA-06: Yet another Democrat is deferring to the now-undisputed frontrunner: Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland won't run for Rep. Norm Dicks' open seat and will instead endorse state Sen. Derek Kilmer. One of the last remaining Dem names we're waiting to hear from is state Sen. Tim Sheldon. If he bows out, then Kilmer should have a clear shot at the nomination, and given the weak GOP field, he'll also be the heavy favorite in November.

UT-03: Democratic Salt Lake City Council Chair Søren Simonsen is clearly unafraid of the daunting demographics presented by Utah's 3rd Congressional District: He says he'll run against GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz this fall. He gets props for courage, and also for the slashed o in his first name.

Other Races:

AZ-St. Sen: He's ba-ack: Former state Sen. Russell Pearce, who was rather notoriously recalled last year, will make a comeback bid this year—but in a different district. So that means he won't face Jerry Lewis, the guy who turfed him, but he may wind up running against another fellow Republican, state Sen. Rich Crandall (who happens to be a political opponent of Pearce's).

NV-St. Sen: The Las Vegas Sun's Anjeanette Damon has a good roundup of this year's key legislative races in Nevada, where Democrats have just a one-vote majority in the Senate and where control of the chamber is very much up-for-grabs.

Redistricting Roundup:

SC Redistricting: The plaintiffs who unsuccessfully challenged South Carolina's new congressional map say they will appeal to the Supreme Court. The SCOTUS is obligated to rule on the case, but they don't have to conduct oral arguments or even issue a written opinion. If the Supremos are feeling even lazier than usual, they can just issue what's known as a "summary affirmance," which gives a thumbs-up to the lower court's ruling without any explanation.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Gill is claiming victory (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    Apparently Macoupin results were released but not posted anywhere online and Gill finished 143 ahead of Goetten

  •  According to Gill's website ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tiger in BlueDenver
  •  Not sure where he's getting his numbers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    M Riles

    but Gill claims Macoupin has came in and he's won by a narrow 143 vote margin (out of 30,871 cast!).

    Link

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 05:35:58 AM PDT

    •  The real question is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      Does Gill have the right profile?  That's what really counts.

    •  Regarding this (2+ / 0-)

      I can tell you that I got a phone call at approximately 5 am from Gill's campaign manager (disclosure: I did some consulting for them along the way) to tell me that they'd gotten a call from someone in Macoupin category and that by 143 votes they'd won... and that it is barely within the recount margin should Goetten decide to ask for one but thinking on it further I don't think he's going to.  

      My real question here is twofold:  We as progressives absolutely LOVE Ilya (I can't tell you how depressed I was last night as I watched the IL-10 #s come in) and we really thought he was gonna win but didn't... and the larger progressive community other than PDA and Blue America pretty much wrote Gill off against a hand picked by the DCCC conservadem and yet in that race the Progressive won... I'm looking forward to diving into the #s to figure this one out because to be honest it just doesn't make a lot of sense but I'll take a win where we progressives can get one

      •  For the record (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dumfriesdestroyer

        people here at DKE were mostly united begin Schneider, not Sheyman. And the results for IL-13 seem to make sense to me:

        a). Goetten never made a trip to Champaign county, the largest county in the district, Gill hammered him for it endlessly. This is why he got such a large margin in Champaign
        b). Gill won big in the parts of the old 15th district, where his name had been on the ballot many times (Piatt, , Goetten won big in the new, western part of the district.
        c). Goetten is from Jersey, and is now the Greene county attorney, that's why he racked up such large margins there, Gill in turn is from McLean
        d). a PPP poll had Gill up slightly a few weeks before the election.

        So while I guess you can say you're surprised Goetten didn't pull it out, the results are quite logical. Gill won big exactly where it would be expected he'd have to rack up margins if he was going to win, and anyone who was writing him off didn't know what they were talking about, you should have looked into it yourself before you took the conventional wisdom. I was projecting a Gill win from before the results started coming in.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:10:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  AP Has the following 100% in (0+ / 0-)

      David Gill               15,507     50.2%    
      Matthew Goetten 15,364     49.8%

  •  2 states down: (0+ / 0-)

    3 Incumbents sent packing (Kucinich, Schmidt, Manzullo)
    Plus the open seats in IL-12, OH-03
    that adds up to 3 of 34 members are going to be new so far.  (The 2 open seats + Schmidt's district is incumbent-less)

  •  This song sums up the Schneider win (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sapelcovits

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    And I once again demand that it be the theme of the weekend open thread.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 05:55:37 AM PDT

  •  Why Sheyman Lost (IMO) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, Tiger in BlueDenver, geoneb

    Keep in mind that Sheyman's base was consistent of younger voters and minorities in places like Waukegan and North Chicago. Schneider's base was consistent of upper crust Jewish voters in Deerfield, Glencoe, Buffalo Grove, and Highland Park.

    Who turns out in higher numbers in a low turnout primary? The Jewish voters in Moraine, West Deerfield, and New Trier Townships turned out whereas younger voters and minorities didn't.

    At this point, there is "No [idealogical] separation between Brad Schneider and Ilya Sheyman" and Schneider is a "true progressive" (both quotes coming from his camp). Sheyman definitely pulled him to the left, which IMO helps Dold. It will still be a very competitive race, in my opinion.

    •  Schneider will revert to what he was... (4+ / 0-)

      ...which is a conservadem.  Look at the way he went after Sheyman.

      But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

      by Rich in PA on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:12:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe also because Mr. Sheyman was only 25? nt (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Satya1, Loge, irmaly, charliehall2, geoneb, jncca
      •  Of course (0+ / 0-)

        That's factored into his support base of younger voters and minorities and it's largely why Schneider also cleaned up in Moraine, West Deerfield, and New Trier Townships (the portions of those in the 10th are all very Jewish and at least somewhat wealthy). The Schneiders are also well known in the local Jewish community whereas Sheyman is a 25-year-old son of Russian Jewish immigrants whom I'm sure aren't as well known as Schneider and his wife.

    •  IL-10 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      I have no doubt that Dold will make this a race, but with a credible candidate (Albiet not a great or exciting one) in a Prez year, his climb is a little too steep imo.

      30/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:38:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

        We will see in November.

        •  It's going to be odd (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Satya1, George Pirpiris

          There will be 0 presidential fervor for the GOP, but the question becomes how well will Obama drive turnout in a state that is a foregone conclusion and will he personally appear/back Democratic candidates.  

          To me, Obama could gain seats for Dems in IL/PA/NY by putting himself out there, but I'm not sure he's going to do that.  To me that's a more important factor in numerous races than the candidates themselves.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:57:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I know Schneider and he's fine (6+ / 0-)

      not as progressive as Ilya (who has a a great future ahead) but basically a mainstream liberal.  Pro-Isreal and somewhat pro-business.  Essentially, the same world view as President Obama, who as Paul Krugman regularly points out, is basically governing as a moderate Dem or what might have been viewed as liberal Republican once upon a time in a land far, far away.  Brad is solidly pro-choice, pro ACA and when you put him up against a real conserva-Dem like Lipinski or Manchin, it's no comparison.  I am pretty sure that he has what it takes to beat Dold in what is still a fairly GOP friendly district.  Remember, no Democrats have come from this district for 32 years.

      •  Abner Mikva (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        deanarms

        Fun fact: the IL-10 that Mikva held for 1.5 terms contained all of Skokie and Evanston and would have been 65.5% Obama today... it was the NE corner of Cook County. What's amazing to me is that John Porter won a seat with Skokie and Evanston in it in the 1980 special election. That would be totally unfeasible today.

        •  Well, I was told ... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          deanarms, Tiger in BlueDenver

          I actually did campaign work in this area back in 1982.  If I remember correctly, the northeast corner of Cook County was actually Republican territory at that time.  Mikva's win was considered monumental and miraculous because of its hard work to get out the vote.  Many claimed credit for his narrow win and rightly so.  For example, his daughter's strong effort to find and collect absentee ballot support from University of Illinois students in Champaign-Urbana may have been larger than his winning margin.

          John Porter had established himself by being a state representative from the Evanston area for about 6 years and by running a strong campaign against Mikva in 1978 but losing.  So when Mikva's bench appointment opened the seat up the following year, he was poised to hit the ground running for this seat which Republicans believed should rightfully belong to them and for which Porter had run a well-regarded challenge.

          What probably tipped the special election to Porter according to various Democratic activists in the area at that time was the Democratic candidate.  He looked great on paper and in person, but local politicos felt that he did not show the ablility to campaign and campaign hard in this marginally Republican area.  One local told me that she and her husband who was a township committee chair told him that they would still invite him to social parties at their home but that they could and would not support him for political office again in the future.

          That's what this young guy at that time was told.

          •  And Porter is no Republican by today's (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            geoneb

            standards.  His wife is a wonderful lady who frequently championed progressive and human rights causes, getting arrested at demonstrations and the like.  I think they divorced, if memory serves.  His moderation and her activism would preclude him from even getting a second look in today's GOP, the party of Joe Walsh.  That said, the same seat was held in the sixties by another moderate Republican of the day, Donald Rumsfeld.

    •  Aside from the word "progressive" (0+ / 0-)

      What exactly are the positions Sheyman had and Schneider now has that hurt them in this district?

      Also, has Schneider really been as politically inexperienced and disengaged as I've been assuming, or does he have a history of activism or campaign/policy engagement that he doesn't really highlight?  (I'm not counting his philanthropy or AIPAC-type stuff unless his role went well beyond "wrote checks".)

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:16:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When have people ever (0+ / 0-)

        elected the person most ideologically aligned with them? Rarely are specific issue positions deciding factors is elections. People vote for subjective reasons, it's the word progressive itself that hurts.

        (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:21:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  also, he was 25 years old (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb

      there should have been a better progressive candidate.  that said, a lot of the attacks on Schneider seemed like grasping.  he could well be a conservadem, but Sheyman didn't make the case, and he certainly didn't make much of a case for himself.  what would or could he say if Schneider wasn't running?

      The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

      by Loge on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:21:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You said you would be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, sweeper

      very worried if Schneider won the primary, now you make it seem there's no difference between him and Sheyman.

      I call BS on that statement from him, he probably just wants post-primary unity.  He's still a business-type Democrat.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:25:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-09 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fisher1028, Xenocrypt

    I'm not surprised.  Markowitz has a job that is perfectly suited to his temperament.  Frankly it's a job that shouldn't exist at all, because it doesn't do much, but he's good at it and enjoys it more than anyone else possibly could.  Congress wouldn't agree with him.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:16:07 AM PDT

  •  NY-09 I never voted for Clarke (0+ / 0-)

    I supported Chris Owens in the 2006 primary.  For many, I think Yassky was a known entity. He was very involved with the schools in his district parents were familiar with him even if they weren't his constituents.

    I have been waiting for six years to be redistricted or a successful primary.  I would find it just as impossible to vote for Marty as for Yvette so Kinard would have received my vote. Fortunately, I won't have to make that choice as I have been placed in the Promised Land.

  •  It's so funny that Romney won last night. Nobody (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueMajority, Mark27

    seems to care. If it was Santorum every media and news blogging outlet would have been freaking out and churning out hypotheses for the next step in the GOP Primary.

    Romney is such a depressant, he is Mr 1%, gets hefty crowds of less than 100 on victory speech night...what else can we ask for (other than a pink pony and one million dollars)?

    Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth's sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won.-Louisa May Alcott

    by YoungArizonaLiberal on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:39:28 AM PDT

  •  On Sheyman's Loss (0+ / 0-)

    I think he would have won if his supporters would have gone out and voted.  Also, I think there was some crossover votes from repugs.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:44:48 AM PDT

  •  Queensland state election (0+ / 0-)

    ReachTEL set to release their final Ashgrove poll in a matter of hours.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 06:45:32 AM PDT

  •  Macoupin County GOP POTUS Primary: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Man-on-Dog wins as expected in that county. +8.0 over Romney.

  •  Jesse Jackson Jr....funny story... (9+ / 0-)

    He came to my high school many years ago and spoke in front of a student body of mostly white, rural future Republicans. After 20 minutes, he had everyone - including the metalheads, rednecks, and farmboys - standing up, holding hands with the people next to them chanting "I Am....Somebody! I Am...Somebody" The place was absolutely buzzing when he left. Hahahahaha....those Jacksons can work a room.

    •  Great Story (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Dillonfence

      Did anyone read the one I linked to very late last night, where he got Blagojevich and Madigan to hug?  And hugged Halvorson?  Of course this was years ago, in 2008.  Not sure she'd hug him now.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:27:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's funny (0+ / 0-)

      I went to one of JJJ's speeches freshman year, and I remember him discussing Obama's victory and totally ragging on the state of Iowa. Something about how Obama's victory was so significant even though it was a state with more cows than people or something. Gotta say, it was pretty amusing.

      22, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 08:18:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-13: Gill Wins (0+ / 0-)

    http://hosted.ap.org/...

    Outstanding Macoupin County reported - Goetten was able to close the gap considerably, but ultimately fell 143 votes short

    •  It's close enough (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      that Goetten can have a recount if he wants it though.

      (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:12:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lowest R primary turnout since WWII. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    allergywoman, KingofSpades, askew

    And I still have not seen one Mitt yard sign.

    Romney is campaigning to be President SuperBain; his cure is to cut wages, end pensions, let companies go bankrupt, and let the assets of production go dark or be sold to China. He really thinks thats the best of all possible Americas.

    by Inland on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:07:47 AM PDT

  •  IL-13 Update for Macoupin County: (0+ / 0-)

    Democratic Primary:
    Goetten wins the county, but not quite enough to get the nomination to face off against Johnson.

    GOP Primary:
    Johnson wins by large margins.

  •  YAY! (0+ / 0-)

    Manzullo lost!

    YAY!

    WOO HOO!

    Couldn't happen to a more deserving piece of crap!

    Oh, this makes for a great day!

  •  PPP nailed the IL-Pres Primary, it seems. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, askew

    Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

    by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:31:42 AM PDT

  •  South NJ mayor says he wasn't in Vietnam (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    What a fantastic town.  The current mayor apologizes for "misleading" people about serving in Vietnam.  Mayor Spodofora replaced their prior mayor who was removed from office after he was found to no longer live in the town (and had a wacky tenure to begin with).

    I keep thinking that some day people will learn that comptuers make fact-checking easy, but it seems not.

    http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/...

    http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:35:22 AM PDT

  •  Former PA-House Speaker sentenced to jail (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits

    Former house speaker Perzel (Republican) sentenced to 2.5-5 years in jail.

    http://www.philly.com/...

    Former Speaker and Democratic leader in the PA hosue Bill Deweese was convicted in a separate case last month, so it's bi-partisan in PA.

    http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:45:15 AM PDT

  •  New York State Senate bizarre race (0+ / 0-)

    In the New York State Senate race to replace the disgraced Carl Kruger, Democrat Lew Fidler has claimed victory even though Republican David Storobin has at the moment more votes!

    http://www.capitalnewyork.com/...

    This has been one of the dirtiest, nastiest campaigns in the memory of a state that has a lot of dirty, nasty campaigns. Nobody is going to be disappointed that the seat got carved up in redistricting.

  •  I Was Wondering If Angus King Was Simply..Dumb.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    phonatic

    .....and his posture here suggests blissful ignorance is what is inspiring the talk of not caucusing with either party.  Does Maine really want to be stuck with this dolt?

  •  Those Nevada numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, askew, stevenaxelrod

    I nearly fainted in horror ... until I realized it was Ras!

    No way does Heller win this by that much; he'd need way more Latino votes than he'd ever get.

  •  Our Polling in IL-10 (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/... Obviously our polling on the 10th Congressional District Democratic primary in Illinois was way off, one of our worst misses ever. We apologize to our clients, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and MoveOn, for letting them down on this race.

    PCCC and MoveOn have been transparent with their polling on the race and have posted all the polls we did for them over the last 3 months here. This error is on PPP, not them.

    We did see the race tightening significantly over the final week. The tracking poll we did on Sunday, March 11th found Sheyman leading by 21 points, 46-25. The tracking we did on Wednesday, March 14th found Sheyman's lead down to 14 points at 44-30. The numbers that were released publicly last Thursday combined the interviews from Sunday and Wednesday, for the purposes of a larger sample size.

    The final night of tracking we did on Sunday, March 18th continued to show Schneider gaining ground while Sheyman stayed in place, and that the lead was down to 11 points at 44-33. Still we never would have expected this.

    We have a few theories on what went wrong: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    •  Do you represent or work for PPP? (0+ / 0-)

      From a quick glance, your previous comments haven't appeared to represent PPP before.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 08:43:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Release the Full Poll (0+ / 0-)

      With data that inconsistent and gathered within a week, someone should have questioned the validity of the poll before it was released. In a race where television was a non-factor and literature drops reined, it's hard to believe that such dramatic swings would have taken place.

      PPP states crossover votes was part of it, but Schneider won by over 2000 votes - it wasn't even close (I don't think that many dems voted for Santorum in all of Michigan). PPP also states that they ran negative messaging polling on Sheyman as well - what were those numbers? Who took the poll? Were they 3/3s, 2/3s? Were the liberal, moderate, or conservative dems who completed the poll.

      I think this is a major problem moving forward, especially since PPP will be conducting polls in major contests this year.

  •  got a real wake up call re: GOTV in NYC (0+ / 0-)

    what if you woke up and found that your local STATE senate special election was not called last night because the candidate in the lead is only leading by 120 votes?

    I don't think I have ever participated in this close an election... where 120 votes separates the two candidates and now we have to wait for 2000 absentee votes to be opened and counted.

    WOW was all I thought when I read this, WOW and I am sure glad heretofore politically apathetic  hubby literally PUSHED me to get downstairs to vote... because we both cast our vote for the candidate trailing by 120 votes and given how close this race is... our vote, MY VOTE may well be a deciding factor when it is all said and done  WOW...

    if ever there was an example of how every single vote counts and is important THIS is it... at least for me.

    "Orwell was an optimist"

    by KnotIookin on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 08:35:52 AM PDT

    •  It's really a special sort of lesson (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KnotIookin

      As a Wisconsinite, I remember the 2011 Supreme Court election, where the lead shifted about 10 times during the canvassing process, where county clerks were looking for ballots they may have not counted successfully on election night. In most counties, this was just a precinct or two, not all the votes from the City of Brookfield.

      Male, 21, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, unapologetic supporter of Obama and Occupy. Tammy Baldwin for Senate and Recall Walker!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 09:56:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  tonight MY Candidate is leading by 52 votes (0+ / 0-)

        2 of those votes are my Hubby and ME...  I am astounded by this as I live in a major metropolitan area and elections for state Senator are just not this close....

        "Orwell was an optimist"

        by KnotIookin on Wed Mar 21, 2012 at 07:02:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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