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2008-2012 Republican Primary Turnout v1
Enalrge map

Total turnout of this year's moody Republican voters in caucuses and primaries is down 9%, with a majority of contests showing a decrease. Incompetence and poor turnout have plagued caucus states especially, with especially anemic showings in Nevada and Minnesota. This year's Missouri primary was made nonbinding, in contrast to 2008, leading to an astonishing 57% drop in participation.

Florida and Minnesota show total collapses in most of the state except for rural counties away from major metropolitan areas. The entire Atlantic coast of Florida from Jacksonville to Miami joined the Minneapolis-St. Paul area in shunning the contests. The base might be angry, but they're not coming out to vote.

Going into tomorrow's Washington caucuses and the Super Tuesday states, will we see a Republican electorate finally waking up to its nomination contest, or fatigue and disenchantment? This map might give Newt Gingrich a (lately rare) ray of hope: his home state of Georgia so far is surrounded by green.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Great map, thanks! (0+ / 0-)

    It'll be interesting to see whether the racist, South Carolina brand of enthusiasm continues across the South, or whether that will turn out to be fluke as Newt's support dwindles.

    "I had seen the universe as it begins for all things. It was, in reality, a child's universe, a tiny and laughing universe." Loren Eiseley

    by cadejo4 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 10:07:57 AM PST

  •  Vermilion County, Illinois here (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL

    I've only seen one Obama/Biden yard sign, and I have yet to see a single yard sign for any of the GOP presidential candidate, despite the fact that one of the top Gingrich organizers in IL is from Vermilion County! This is despite the fact that Vermilion County is Republican-leaning!

    •  I haven't seen yard signs period in Chicago (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly

      although my neighborhood is pretty uniformly Democratic, and the Republican voters here are probably students who don't have yards to put signs on. Not like yard signs are a good gauge of public opinion anyway. Oh, my roommate got a Ron Paul bumper sticker. Does that count?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:06:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Haven't seen anything here in the suburbs (0+ / 0-)

      Lots of local/state signs. Nothing at the Presidential level (maybe a few Obama signs). Lean republican area. Let me repeat that again. Absolutely zero Romney, Gingrich, Santorum or Paul signs. And early voting has already started.

  •  Nice map, tipped and recced (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Eric Nelson

    although with Missouri we unfortunately have no apples-to-apples comparison since the primary this year was meaningless. I believe they had a primary in 2008 so the caucus there won't be a good comparison either, especially since different parts of the state are caucusing on different dates. Still an interesting analysis, though.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:04:52 PM PST

  •  Florida should worry them, I think! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Eric Nelson

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:20:39 PM PST

  •  If you'll notice about Florida (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eric Nelson

    The only region with better turnout this year was the northern portion of the state.  Those are the counties Gingrich faired best in the primary and Romney had his worst performance in.  I don't think that's a coincidence and bodes badly for Romney in the general.  Seems like the republican base in Florida is very unenthusiastic about Romney.  By this time in the 2008 primaries I was seeing a lot of McCain bumper stickers on my (42 mile each way) interstate drive to and from work.  Thus far the number of Romney bumper sticks I've seen I can literally count on one hand.  Same with yard signs in my city.  You wouldn't know Romney even existed.

  •  Beautiful work (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inoljt

    Hope you keep this series going as the primaries continue.

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 04:54:12 PM PST

  •  To be fair (0+ / 0-)

    Comparing the turnout in Missouri's non binding Primary in 2012 with the turnout in their binding 2008 primary does skew the results.

  •  If you can stomach Redstate (0+ / 0-)

    Erick the Red is calling Mittens a flat-out liar. http://t.co/...

    When Erick Erickson starts agreeing with me, I know we are living in strange times indeed.

    It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness - Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Fish in Illinois on Sat Mar 03, 2012 at 07:11:43 PM PST

  •  Agree About Missouri not being comparable (0+ / 0-)

    But even if you hold it out the trend is downward. Only South Carolina is up enthusiastically. Of the others Iowa, Maine and New Hampshire are barely up and it could be because of Ron Paul. Michigan is up more but still down 25% on total Primary Participation when the Democratic side is considered. Since voters can freely choose which primary to vote in it makes sense that a certain % of voters would go Republican if there was no Democratic action even if there is not an attempt to spoof. It is also interesting that 99% of Romney's margin of Victory came from Oakland County- take it away and Romney only wins by about 400 votes. If Southern turnout is big on Tue but the other states lag it will show that only the South is energized yhis year which is good for team Blue.

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