Grand Canyon
Public Policy Polling (pdf). 2/17-19. Arizona voters. MoE ±3.6%. (11/17-20 results):
Richard Carmona (D): 35 (36)
Jeff Flake (R): 46 (40)
Undecided: 19 (24)
Don Bivens (D): 35 (32)
Jeff Flake (R): 46 (42)
Undecided: 19 (36)
Richard Carmona (D): 33 (33)
Wil Cardon (R): 37 (35)
Undecided: 30 (32)
Don Bivens (D): 32 (27)
Wil Cardon (R): 38 (35)
Undecided: 31 (37)
Public Policy Polling's November poll of the Arizona Senate race (an open seat race, thanks to Jon Kyl's retirement) painted a hopeful picture of the situation, with Democratic former Surgeon General Richard Carmona hanging only four points back of Republican Rep. Jeff Flake. That was enough to give Democrats some hope that this could turn into a third potential offensive score (to go with Massachusetts and Nevada) to offset several likely Senate losses. I've commented before that Arizona seems to be something of a reverse-New Jersey for the Democrats though, always looking promising and never panning out in the end, and today's numbers suggest that may be the case, with Flake putting some distance between himself and Cardona.
Is the problem an overly GOP-friendly sample? Doesn't seem like it ... this same sample just yielded up some great-looking presidential numbers (with Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47 each). Instead, it looks like Flake got better known to Republicans outside his district; he moved from the low 40s to the mid 40s, while Carmona stayed in place. That increased spread seems limited to the Carmona/Flake race, though, as Don Bivens—the former state Democratic chair and other credible Democratic candidate, who notably underperformed Carmona last time—now holds Flake to the same margin. Carmona still has a name rec gap that he needs to close (he's at 13/14 favorables, compared with 36/30 for Flake) and presumably this will tighten a bit again as Carmona nails down more of his base, as Flake did this time.
Marist for NBC News. 2/19-20. Registered voters. MoE ±2.0%. (no trendlines):
Richard Carmona (D): 29
Jeff Flake (R): 42
Undecided: 28
And here's some confirmation of PPP's view of the race: Marist, on behalf of NBC news, found a similar Carmona/Flake spread (here it's 13), although with even higher unknowns. (They also find Romney leading Obama by 5 in the same sample.) They don't offer permutations involving Bivens or tea-flavored Republican Wil Cardon, but I suppose that's reasonable; we don't have a clear sense of how the Democratic primary is shaping up although establishment support has seemingly coalesced behind Carmona, while Flake is clearly on track to win the
GOP side, if PPP's primary poll is any indication (where he leads Cardon 56-7).