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Polling rarely takes a holiday, and this Presidents' Day weekend was no exception. In addition to the first set of fairly sobering poll numbers for Barack Obama in recent memory (whether we call these outliers or not is going to depend on what we see in the next couple of days), we also see three new polls which hint at an exceptionally close race not only in Michigan, but also in Arizona. With those two states the next ones to cast ballots on February 28th, all eyes will be on them as Republicans try to edge ever closer to settling on a candidate to challenge the president.

Interestingly, even though Mitt Romney seems to be rebounding in Michigan, he seems to be losing a bit of his grasp not only in Arizona, but in other states, as well. Meanwhile, his standing in the Gallup tracking poll of the GOP primary nationally is near a low-point, as Rick Santorum has forged a double-digit advantage.

NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Santorum 36, Romney 26, Gingrich 13, Paul 11

ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 36, Santorum 33, Gingrich 16, Paul 9

MICHIGAN (PPP): Santorum 37, Romney 33, Paul 15, Gingrich 10

MICHIGAN (We Ask America): Romney 29, Santorum 29, Paul 12, Gingrich 10

OKLAHOMA (Sooner Poll): Santorum 39, Romney 23, Gingrich 18, Paul 8

TEXAS (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Santorum 48, Gingrich 17, Romney 16, Paul 14

VIRGINIA (Christopher Newport Univ.): Romney 53, Paul 23

On the general election front, Gallup heads back into the breech with a set of numbers that, given where every other pollster has been for weeks, has to provoke some head scratching. However, we also see a significant softening in the Rasmussen tracking poll over last week, plus the respected Iowa poll had some pessimistic data for the president, as well. Either several pollsters are suddenly missing the fairway, or the numbers for Barack Obama have softened markedly from earlier in the month.
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (47-44); Obama d. Romney (46-42)

NATIONAL (USA Today/Gallup): Romney d. Obama (50-46); Obama d. Santorum (49-48)

IOWA (Selzer/Des Moines Register): Paul d. Obama (49-42); Santorum d. Obama (48-44); Romney d. Obama (46-44); Obama d. Gingrich (51-37)

TEXAS (Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune): Santorum d. Obama (51-37); Romney d. Obama (49-36)

VIRGINIA (Christopher Newport University): Santorum d. Obama (46-42); Romney d. Obama (46-43); Obama tied with Paul (43-43); Obama d. Gingrich (45-40)

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama d. Romney (50-39); Obama d. Paul (50-37); Obama d. Santorum (51-38); Obama d. Gingrich (56-34)

A quick look at what today's numbers mean, and why there is good and bad news for Mitt Romney therein, after the jump.

As has been the case for Mitt Romney for about the past two weeks, there is no shortage of suck in these numbers. But, on a bit further review, there are also some tiny bits of silver lining in these numbers, as well.

Looking purely at a delegate standpoint, the polls out today make the case that Mitt Romney will walk away next week with more delegates than he looked to get last week. That's because Michigan allocates by district, while Arizona is winner-take-all. Therefore, as long as Romney can carry Arizona, winning by three points or ten points is pretty much irrelevant. But being closer to Santorum in Michigan can yield big dividends, in the form of nabbing additional delegates.

Also, the consternation in Texas is clearly to Mitt Romney's benefit, as he is flat-out getting smooshed there right now, according to today's poll. Once scheduled for the first week in April, the primary looks likely to be no earlier than late May. This gives Mitt Romney time to put away Rick Santorum before then, rendering Texas irrelevant. If Texas still matters by the time Memorial Day comes around, it could be the dagger for Romney, if this poll is to be believed.

That said, there is also a lot here for team Romney to be concerned about. Of deepest concern to the Mitt-sters, no doubt, is the fact that in the state general election trial heats, Santorum actually outperforms Romney in the bulk of them when paired with Barack Obama. The grudging acceptance of Romney on the part of the GOP base has always been predicated on the notion that while he wasn't everything they wanted, he was the guy best suited to defeat Barack Obama. If that is no longer true, one has to believe that hurts Romney's standing in the Republican primary.

Romney's continued swoon in the Gallup tracker also is noteworthy, although one must remember that there was a time in the not-too-distant past when the first Newt boomlet (the December one, not the South Carolina one) staked Gingrich to a 15-point lead over Romney. That said, the stats are the stats--Mitt Romney has dropped 11 percent in the past twelve days, while Rick Santorum has shot up 19 percent.

Another way to look at these "anti-Mitt" surges: when Newt Gingrich had his second boomlet centered around South Carolina, he either rose in support or held his ground for thirteen consecutive days. Monday marked the seventeenth consecutive day that Santorum has done so. However, Santorum has failed to break above 37 percent, a fact that was also true for Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. I can't think of a more compelling stat to point out how generally unenthusiastic the GOP is about their field of candidates than that single number.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:15 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm going to be liveblogging primary night (13+ / 0-)

    in an unofficial capacity for DKE.  I promise updates until the vast majority of precincts are in, just as I did for MO/MN/CO.  Even though it'll mean more work, and I would prefer to face Romney in the general, I really really hope its a rough day for Romney.  I want him to have to spend like 100 million more to win the nomination alone.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:19:29 PM PST

  •  ohhhh My favorite diary of the day!! Thanks Steve! (13+ / 0-)

    Sig seen on Redstate: ABO Anybody But Obama. Sorry, I'm stealing that.... Another Barack Opportunity. Vote Obama/Biden 2012!

    by mrsgoo on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:19:59 PM PST

  •  Today I've been looking at the 2002 and 2006 (5+ / 0-)

    Republican gubernatorial primaries in Oregon, because they may be indicative of the relative strength of Santorum and Romney in the state, should this go on until May.  Recall the last poll of Oregon was during the Bachmann boomlet, when she led Romney here 29-28.

    I thought those primaries would be helpful because the two main contenders were Kevin Mannix, a downstate Republican, former Democrat, and social conservative, who won in 2002, and Ron Saxton, a Portland moderate Republican from the business wing of the party, who won in 2006.

    Unfortunately, once I looked closer, I realized it wouldn't be so easy to get useful data.  In 2002 the last Republican other than Gordon Smith to win a statewide election, moderate Republican Jack Roberts, also ran.  He split the more moderate vote with Saxton, allowing Mannix to win.  In 2006, then-Republican rising star, now somewhat faded, mainstream Republican Jason Atkinson ran and placed third, but split the more conservative vote with Mannix, allowing Saxton to win the nomination.  In 2002 the more moderate candidates outpolled Mannix by more than 60,000 votes statewide, but Mannix still won.  In 2006 the more conservative candidates outpolled Saxton by about 25,000 votes, but Saxton still won.

    I'm still going forward with looking closer at this.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:39:44 PM PST

    •  Oregon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wonderful world

      a closed primary, that'll either mean almost nothing ... or a lot! Are there public questions, and other major R races?

      •  Portland will have heavy turnout (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wonderful world

        because of the mayoral election, but I don't expect anything else.  We don't have a gubernatorial or senate race, there shouldn't be any fierce congressional primaries, or at least I haven't heard of any yet.  No major ballot measures.  The BOLI (Bureau of Labor & Industries) Commissioner race may be decided in May, if one of the candidates reaches 50% +1.  It's nominally nonpartisan but the two main candidates are the incumbent, a former Democratic state senator, and the challenger an incumbent Republican state senator, both from Washington County, the second biggest in the state, and a stronghold of moderate Republicans.

        So, between BOLI and Portland's mayoral race, moderate Rs may get a boost in turnout.

        I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:09:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Personally (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think any of the R candidates has a chance in Oregon. No R has won here since 1984. We only gots 7 electoral college votes and nobody is going to spend money polling us unless the Oregonian gets bored.

        Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

        by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:45:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  but the Republican primary (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Wreck Smurfy, pademocrat

          is what we're talking about.

          It's a foregone conclusion that Obama will win Oregon.  No Republican has won Oregon since 1984.  The last statewide election a Republican won was in 2002.  The last gubernatorial election a Republican won was 1982.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:46:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sure, Still (0+ / 0-)

            Who cares to poll something as irrelevant as the Oregon R presidential primary? The 5 congressional districts are a lock the way they are. I don't think we've got a senatorial race and the gov's. set. Why would anyone bother?

            In fact, IMO, the west coast is a lock for Obama so I wouldn't expect a plethora of polls from CA, WA, OR any time soon. CA b/c it's so big is worth a bit of time, otherwise? Meh.

            Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

            by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:59:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  because Mitt Romney is unlikely to have enough (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              TerryDarc, Tx LIberal, Seneca Doane, askew

              delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, so Oregon may play a role in the nomination.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:07:50 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  According to PPP (0+ / 0-)

                Romney is loathed in Washington state, but we have caucuses and no party registration. I asked about other races as if there aren't really any, I'm not so sure moderate R's would send their ballots back? The (suburban) Republican members on the King County Council voted to recommend that the legislature pass marriage equality, so I'd say Obama will do fine on the Left Coast. The governor numbers are troubling, but McKenna seems to be seen as someone like Chris Christie who'll force the legislature to reduce spending, which some see Democrats incapable of doing enough of.

                •  I can see a LOT of west coast Republicans (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Tx LIberal

                  just throwing up their hands and this current lot of clowns. The corruption of the Republican party by the flat earthers and southerners is profound, deeply disappointing to those who believe a vibrant two party system is essential to democracy. Count me among them.

                  Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

                  by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:53:46 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Oregon's Congressional seats... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, pademocrat, TerryDarc

              You don't have to be the Amazing Kreskin to know what's going to happen for our congressional seats--especially after Rob Cornilles's beat down in the first.

              There is some idiot (who I know nothing about, so I'm using--probably unfairly--the term "idiot") running as a GOPper for Secretary of State....and there are three Dems running for AG, but I don't think there's even going to be a GOPper candidate for AG.

              But as far the Oregon's GOP goes....The fact that they ran a cipher like Chris Dudley for governor--a guy so blank, he could claim to be practically a Democrat in Portland, while being a militant Tea Party guy in Eastern Oregon--I think that other than for purely local issues (like state rep), the Party's almost dead.

              So, I share the view that 1) it's impossible to predict who's going to win the GOP primary, because of weird & low turn out; and 2) it's not going to make a damn bit of difference in the general.

              Best of luck to you, James Allen, on calling it!  You're a better man than I, Gunga James.....

              But in terms of West Coast excitement....I thought that for Washington Gov, Inslee-McKenna was shaping up to be a contest.....As opposed to Maria Cantwell & the Some Dudes cf Gladys Knight & the Pips.

              •  the Republicans didn't have an AG candidate in (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TerryDarc, supercereal

                2008.  They have a few people who could make a credible run, like Jack Roberts.  Why is nobody stepping up?  AG, because of concern about crime, is the most likely place I'd think they could win a statewide position.

                AFAIK they also don't have a candidate for Treasurer.  Kate Brown is likely to be re-elected at SOS.  The only reason it was close when she was elected in 2008 is because her opponent was a local tv personality in Eugene, and so she underperformed there.

                I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

                by James Allen on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:48:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Dudley Was A Stab In The Dark (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:

                Sort of like the current clown parade in the presidential: Gingrich? You've got to be kidding? Santorum who? Only Romney rates as something like a reasonable candidate.

                I think Dudley was thrown up as a jump ball hoping that Kitzhaber would have a child-molestation conviction or Nazi party affiliation made known a week before the election: only was Chris Dudley would get elected.

                BTW - getting Merkley? Winning the brass ring AFAIC. What a treasure! Bluer and bluer even with the eastern 2/3 of the state being farming R's who must be sick at their presidential race - they will stay home in droves on election day.

                Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

                by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:00:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  If It Makes It To Oregon.... (4+ / 0-)

      The sheer volume of Republicans shitting themselves will be a freaking sight to behold...

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:41:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Culture wars affecting Obama poll numbers? (10+ / 0-)

    Polls the last couple of days have shown surprising reversal for the president.  Is this because of these social issues?  Hard to believe, but that's the only thing that has changed over the last couple of weeks.  We'll have to see over the next couple of weeks.

  •  MI: PPP vs We ask America (10+ / 0-)

    PPP has 5% undecided.  We Ask has an improbable 20% undecided.  Given how late deciders have broken against Romney most everywhere, I'd expect that the reality of the We ask poll is in line with most others, Santorum up by 4 to 6.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 06:58:00 PM PST

    •  Ah, yes. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TerryDarc, SoCalLiberal

      I believe their nickname in 2010 was "We Ask Vote Republican." It was annoying when America complied. Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 07:22:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They Ask Questions Like (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        1. Is Obama a secret socialist or a closet commie?
        2. Does Obama's Islamic faith bother you?
        3. You don't that Obama guy elected again do you?

        Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

        by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:49:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Def. A GOP Pollster, But... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I have to give them some credit. They were the lone voices in the wilderness saying we were gonna get crushed in Illinois, including some races that no one really saw coming (IL-08, IL-10, in particular).

        Now, that could be a function merely of being able to be right when the cards are in the GOP's favor. BUT...till then, I'll give them more benefit of the doubt than MOST GOP pollsters.

        "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

        by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:45:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  They're both right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      PPP is pushing leaners, I think by withholding the undecided option for several seconds. I trust that PPP is giving an accurate snapshot by doing so.

  •  It will all come down to the debate... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I think the carpet-boming attack ads become white noise pretty quickly and I don't think they are responsible for any of the outcomes save maybe Iowa.  Newt won S.Carolina because he had two strong debates,  Romney won Florida because Newt had crud debates.

    It's not just the debates, but the after coverage where the MSM declares a winner and then talks about it for the next two days.  

    Is Mitt's air campaign in Michigan having an effect - probably a little.  But I think his supporters are just coming home to him.  It was his hometown after all and he should have a distinct advantage there.  

    Santorum has had strong debate performances in the past, but he has never been the front runner taking flack from all comers.  How will he handle the focus?

    If he just stays on his message against Romney for Romneycare mandates and is ready to defend the "earmark/big spender" attacks by pointing out Romney was requesting earmarks through Massachusetts congressional reps, and took $1.3B for the SLC Olympics he should do okay.

    Santorum needs to show he's more electable, and should really hit on Romney not being able to draw enough distinction between himself and Pres Obama.  Really hammer on Romneycare=Obamacare and how Mitt was a Massachusetts Moderate.  

    If Mitt goes for the "he raised the debt ceiling" attack, simply parry by pointing out McCain and Kyl did as well, as did virtually every GOP Rep who was in office during the Bush years.   That raising the debt ceiling isn't the issue, because that is paying our bills, it's the spending that racks up the debt that is the problem.  

    Newt Gingrich is the wildcard in all of this.  I think he'll probably look to attack Santorum as his sugar daddy seems to be fine with Mitt winning, and Newt's only change at a third act is to bring Santorum down first.  

    Sheriff Arpaio's endorsement is another potential wrench - I'd have figured he would have endorsed Romney given he's still a heavy favorite to win the nomination, but with the Babeu mess right now Arpaio might not want to be Romney's sloppy seconds - as he had Babeu as his co-chair.  

    If I had to bet, I'd say Mitt wins both states.  Both states just naturally favor him demographically.  We'll know a lot more after the debate on the 22nd.

  •  It won't be a long night. The GOP will declare (16+ / 0-)

    Romney the winner with 24% of precincts reporting and everyone will breathe a sigh of relief.

    Two weeks later, someone will mention that Romney didn't really win any states but gee, have you seen him? He looks like a scared puppy.

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

    by darthstar on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:04:33 PM PST

  •  Rmoney sucks LOL! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:06:00 PM PST

  •  Texas (6+ / 0-)

    At this point, I hope the the mess in Texas continues and the primary lands on June 5th. Watching the national media try to cover California and Texas on the same day would be awesome.

    ex-SSP. Central Califonia. -6.75,-4.97

    by hankmeister on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:08:16 PM PST

  •  Why Include Rasmussen? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'm out of the loop here. Last I had heard, Rasmussen polls had been discovered to be either cooked or very poorly built, and Kos had said this site wouldn't use them on this site. What changed? Why are we giving them the publicity and simultaneously misleading ourselves by using their figures in our consideration of honest public opinion?

  •  I liked this bit...57% like the protracted primary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    By 66%-29%, the Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed say it would be better if one of the four candidates now running managed to secure enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Most are happy to see their roller-coaster campaign continue: 57% say the battle isn't hurting the party.
    They're as delusional as their candidates are if they think it's not hurting their party. I don't mind if they want to think that, though. :)
  •  Those Iowa figures... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, Micheline

    aren't good news for us, especially considering the reputation of the pollster...

  •  Santorum's lurch right.... (7+ / 0-)

    I think I have figured it out....

    He is trying to force the CNN debate into social issues...he knows that if he can keep most of the debate, including the intro on social issues and theology in AZ, he is going to have Romney in a box.

    I think this is all debate strategy....nothing else makes sense....

    Now, do they moderate Republican women turnout...or just give up?

    "But once John Boehner is sworn in as Speaker, then he’s going to have responsibilities to govern. You can’t just stand on the sidelines and be a bomb thrower." - President Obama, 12-07-2010

    by justmy2 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:31:05 PM PST

  •  Remind me never to consider moving to Texas (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    What is wrong with these people?

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:33:15 PM PST

  •  I wouldn't call those polls for POTUS sobering. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Fury, New Rule

    Nauseating seems more appropriate.

    Ron Paul defeats Obama in IA?

    •  I have this bridge in Brooklyn for sale (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tommypaine, MikePhoenix


      Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

      by TerryDarc on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:56:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  At this point in Iowa almost everybody (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Byblis, Fury, CoyoteMarti, askew

      has disconnected their phone (if 2008 is anything to go by.)  You really cannot believe what it is like.    The pollsters should count how many hang-ups they got (probably well over %80, not kidding as an ex phonebanker for a campaign.)    You would not believe some the answering machine messages I heard...

  •  Guess good economic news bumps don't last long. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Byblis, Fury

    Oh well.

    If Obama doesn't deserve credit for getting Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger, Bin Laden doesn't deserve the blame for 9-11 because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:44:03 PM PST

  •  Before everybody gets bent out of shape: (5+ / 0-)

    I found this on the blog Outside the Beltway:

    WaPo, 1/22/84:
    Reagan ties both Mondale and Glenn with 45 percent of the vote.
    The findings represent a leveling of the slight rise in support for Reagan against Mondale and Glenn in November and December polls.

    NYT, 3/9/84:
    The new Gallup poll, taken by telephone among 719 registered voters from March 2 to March 6, confirmed what political specialists generally believe to be a very volatile situation among the electorate five days before Tuesday’s primaries and caucuses in nine states.

    The poll found that in a trial heat for the Presidency, 52 percent said they favored the Colorado Senator to 43 percent for Mr. Reagan. When matched against Mr. Hart’s two leading rivals in the poll, Mr. Reagan led former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, 50 percent to 45 percent, and Senator John Glenn of Ohio 52 percent to 41 percent.

    Check out my new blog Romney the Liar right here.

    by Yosef 52 on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:44:11 PM PST

    •  Yes, but check job growth numbers for summer 1984 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Yosef 52, nimh

      We'll see nothing that good, even hoping for continued improvement.

      Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

      by Tuffie on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:18:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reading the general election tea leaves (6+ / 0-)

      I am very hopeful for a big Obama win in November.  Here are some things to consider:

      1.  By far the most popular politician in the United States today is Barack Obama.  I have no idea how anyone else even approaches his numbers.  And the sizable (not $1 B) funding that President Obama will have will be spent to keep that advantage.

      2.  By far the most skillful politician in the United States today is Barack Obama.  Its been a while since I've seen him set off the fireworks, but I know he's got it in him.  While he has his lunch pail, he's a wonk.  But get him on the campaign trail and he will inspire again.

      3.  The Republican primary is going to be expensive and the resources will diminish.  Whoever comes out of it will have damage control to do and will be spending a great deal of time fundraising.  Only the very best and brightest will be about to pivot from a primary to a general that quickly.  They don't have the brightest folks over there.

      4.  I deon't know who will win the Republican primary, but I do know that the party will be fractured.  Does anyone see a wholesale transfer of Ron Paul votes going to Romney?  Or Newt giving Romney a big french kiss on the platform of the convention?

      5.  Santorum can win the primary, but there is NFW (no way) that he can win the general.  He does not have the national scope of a campaign to take it that far.  Its like asking a little league baseball team to take on the New York Giants.  They don't even play the same sport.

      6.  Obama's favorability numbers are low, but I know lots of progressives who are very disappointed with him and would say that their feelings are unfavorable.  But they are not voting for Santorum or Romney.

      So, I think overall, we are in good shape.  Things can change.  Events can take over a campaign.  But I like where we are right now.

  •  Iowa numbers make no sense (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    But if they do?  Yeah it's only February but that's major trouble.  Inexplicable.  Let's hope it's a fluke.  But the Gingrich numbers DO make sense.  So I don't know.  I put nothing past this country.  

    Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

    by Tuffie on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 08:46:03 PM PST

  •  USA TODAY/Gallup polling always seems to be (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, Fury

    a bit odd.

    In December, they had Obama leading Gingrich and Romney by 2.

    Even at the height of the Gingrich, I find that hard to believe.

    •  Agreed... (0+ / 0-)

      Also, I am a skeptic on the total lack of undecideds in their polls. Sure, it is a national election, but I'd still expect more like 6-12 percent without an opinion.

      "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 09:50:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  How do they poll? (0+ / 0-)

    With land line phones? No one I know has ever been polled.

    •  "No one I know has ever been polled" (0+ / 0-)

      With an average poll sample size of under 1,000 (don't need more to be statistically accurate), and a total US population of 313,048,000, that doesn't really mean much.

  •  I can't believe (0+ / 0-)

    The Virginia polls which show Obama losing to everyone except Gingrich.

    Recent polling shows most Virginians are not on the right's side of the culture war (in spite of what the legislature is doing...), so the idea that uber-culture-warrior Santorum would be able to come here and win handily is...well, I'd say that's not likely.

    I believe Obama can win Virginia again, and I believe it'll be close. But I have a hard time swallowing the CNU numbers being shown here. Not with what's been going on around here lately.

  •  question (0+ / 0-)

    who would you most like to see as a freshman in 2012 congress. Born again freshman count (that means you Alan Grayson).

    For me it would be either Mark Takano because Riverside County hasn't had a dem congressman in forever or Joe Kennedy III because its good to have a Kennedy back in congress, especially with a guy who is only 31 and has the potential to move his way up the committee. He kind of reminds me of Markey who was about his age when he was first elected.

    also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 20, 2012 at 10:06:33 PM PST

  •  Christopher Newport University? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew

    Is that some sort of joke?

    I have a poll out of Christopher Robin University that says Obama is leading in Virginia.

  •  Gas prices starting to be a factor (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, PorridgeGun

    They're not that high yet but they're rising way too ominously. And the media is jumping on that drum. Basically saying - "Gas prices aren't Obama's fault, but everyone THINKS they are. Therefore, they are his fault."

    Why has nothing been done to regulate the commodities market, which is (as always) at the heart of the problem here?

  •  Thanks to the Catholic Bishops (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    for boosting a Party that exalts the rich above all else, agitates for war, bemoans the safety net, and will kill ACA as a first order of business.  Heckuva job.

    (to the extent the softening in Obama's numbers are real).

  •  What Is Up With The Gallup/USA Today Poll? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    New Rule

    I don't understand how President Obama went down so far that quick.  Is this a legitimate poll?

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 08:02:24 AM PST

    •  They always go out on a limb (0+ / 0-)

      Take a look at the trend and you see in terms of both job approval and head-to-heads they always have poorer numbers for the president than most if not all other polling. Sure, Rasmussen shows tightening too, but Obama is still ahead their. Don't really understand what Gallup are playing at.

      "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

      by conspiracy on Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 10:15:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ras this morning (0+ / 0-)

    Both Santorum and Romney are now within 2 points of Obama in the Ras tracking meaning that Obama has lost 6 points off the 8 point lead he had less than a week ago, without any seeming reason except the non-stop Washington Beltway fixation with birth control and gas prices.

  •  GA Republican numbers are interesting (0+ / 0-)

    New Insider Advantage poll mentioned on RCP with a close 3-way race, Gingrich 26, Romney 24, Santorum 23. A poll prior to Santorum's trifecta had the numbers 45-32-9, so Romney has a chance of coming through the middle with the split conservative vote.

    If Gingrich fails to win GA he surely has to quit as it's hard to think of any other state he could take and his continued presence would therefore only be helping Romney by splitting the anti-Romney vote.

    Polling in the last few days is looking decent for Romney; it now looks quite likely that he'll squeeze out wins in both AZ and MI which would spike Santorum's momentum. With Gingrich now dead in the water and Santorum organisationally weak (gifting delegates here and there by not getting on the ballot) and at a huge financial disadvantage, Romney could soon be back as clear favorite and in with a decent chance of wrapping it up within a month. Very different story if he drops either AZ or MI though, so the next week is huge.

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