LATFOR, the New York State legislative task force for redistricting, came out with proposed maps for the State Assembly and Senate the other day. I wrote a diary that detailed some... and only some... of the gerrymandering abuses of the Republican Senate majority in drawing upstate districts in an attempt to retain power and political relevance for a few more years. That diary can be found here and I highly recommend taking a quick look at it now to familiarize yourself with those abuses as they represent the current proposed Senate maps.
In this diary I will present one possible set of State Senate maps that attempt to be compact, contiguous and fair.
Let's start with the number of districts. The New York State Constitution contains a screwy formula for determining the number of Senate districts. The assembly is locked in at 150 districts. The Senate starts with a baseline of 50 districts in 1890 and by a complicated formula that uses county lines as of 1890 (which have changed since but those changes must be ignored for purposes of the counting process) supposedly grows with population. In 2002 LATFOR determined, controversially then too, that a 62nd district was called for. This year they determined to create a 63rd.
Let's move on to population. LATFOR uses a formula that allows for a maximum 10% variation in population between the largest and smallest districts. This translates to districts that are no more than 5% larger or smaller then the optimal target population size. Given 63 districts the optimal district would contain 307,588 people. Therefore a 5% variance means + / - 15,000 people per district. In the previous diary I detail how the Senate Republicans used that maximum 5% variance to create the 63rd district in upstate New York by shorting virtually ever other upstate district the maximum 15,000 people.
Lastly, LATFOR is primarily made up of State Legislators appointed by the leaders of each chamber. The effect is that the Assembly, dominated by Democrats, has its district lines drawn by Democratic Assemblymen. The Senate, with a bare Republican majority, has its district lines drawn by Republican Senators. Congressional districts, which are currently being negotiated, are usually drawn as incumbent protection plans by compromise between the Republican Senators and Democratic Assemblymen.
Ok, enough of describing the thoroughly undemocratic broken process in New York.
For the State Senate maps below I have ignored the creation of an unnecessary and uncalled for 63rd district. This makes the optimal population size of a Senate district 312,550 people. I have also trimmed the 10% variance down to 1%. This means a district shall be no more than + / - 1,500 people from optimal.
Lastly, I have attempted as best I was able to follow the guidelines proposed years ago in (then Assemblyman - now Senator) Mike Gianaris' bill that requires lines follow counties, towns, cities to the greatest degree possible, only crossing such existing borders when necessary to meet population requirements and breaking up larger entities before smaller ones. The only place where this was broken was in New York City where some consideration was given to creation of minority-majority districts though even there I didn't stretch districts much to encompass minorities in essentially non-contiguous neighborhoods.
While there is plenty of room to quibble and I invite anyone objecting to these maps to use the same, or relatively similar, guidelines to create non-gerrymandered maps these maps do show, generally speaking, what the State Senate ought to look like as opposed to the monstrosity created by the Senate Republicans.
Without further ado... A non-gerrymandered New York State Senate:
Districts were drawn using Dave's Redistricting App starting at the eastern tip of Long Island and working west down into the city and then north along the Hudson river before turning west towards Buffalo and the shores of Lake Erie.
A wide view of Long Island and New York City and into Westchester County containing districts 1-39:
A view of Suffolk County containing districts 1-4 and most of 5:
Dist 1 (blue): 312,852 pop (+302) - 53.1% Obama - 55.0% avg Dem
Dist 2 (green): 313,299 (+749) - 49% Obama - 52.2% avg Dem
Dist 3 (dark magenta): 312,023 (-527) 51.7% Obama - 54.9% avg Dem
Dist 4 (red): 312,168 (-382) - 57.1% Obama - 59.2% avg Dem
Dist 5 (gold): 313,819 (+1,269) - 53.2% Obama - 54.7% avg Dem
District 5 crosses over into Nassau county....
Nassau County displaying districts 4-9:
Dist 6 (teal): 313,724 pop (+1,174) - 46.5% Obama - 49.5% avg Dem
Dist 7 (dark gray): 312,420 (-130) - 55.6% Obama - 57.7% avg Dem
Dist 8 (slate blue): 311,271 (-1,279) - 59.7% Obama - 59.4% avg Dem
Dist 9 (cyan): 312,135 (-415) - 53.7% Obama - 55.6% avg Dem
A wide view of most of New York City:
A view of most of Queens (minus Jamaica Bay and the Rockaways) covering districts 10-17:
Dist 10 (deep pink): 313,939 pop (+1,389) - 61.4% Obama - 65.6% avg Dem - 47.1% Asian
Dist 11 (chartreuse): 313,407 (+857) - 70.6% Obama - 74.5% avg Dem - 32.5% Asian - 29.9% white
Dist 12 (cornflower blue): 312,203 (-347) - 97.4% Obama - 97.6% avg Dem - 77.6% black
Dist 13 (dark salmon): 312,293 (-257) - 68.5% Obama - 71.3% avg Dem - 30.7% white - 25.3% hispanic - 20.6% black
Dist 14 (olive): 312,260 (-290) - 62.4% Obama - 66.6% avg Dem - 45.2% white
Dist 15 (dark orange): 313,639 (+1,089) - 79.6% Obama - 82.3% avg Dem - 61.5% Hispanic
Dist 16 (lime): 312,345 (-205) - 80.3% Obama - 81.5% avg Dem - 52.9% white
Dist 17 (dark slate blue): 313,421 (+871) - 84.6% Obama - 86.1% avg Dem - 59.3% Hispanic
District 13 in dark salmon extends down to cover the lower portion of Queens:
From here we move into Kings County, districts 18-24:
Dist 18 (yellow): 312,796 pop (+246) - 95.8% Obama - 96.4% avg Dem - 72.4% black
Dist 19 (yellow-green): 312,252 (-298) - 97.7% Obama - 97.3% avg Dem - 65.2% black
Dist 20 (pink): 312,686 (+136) - 86.2% Obama - 87.7% avg Dem - 44.1% white
Dist 21 (maroon): 313,488 (+938) - 94% Obama - 95% avg Dem - 76.9% black
Dist 22 (sienna): 312,925 (+375) - 42.3% Obama - 53.2% avg Dem - 73.1% white
Dist 23 (aquamarine): 312,997 (+447) - 55.2% Obama - 59.8% avg Dem - 55.4% white
Dist 24 (indigo): 313,072 (+522) - 65.3% Obama - 70.4% avg Dem - 59.4% white
A view of Staten Island containing districts 25 & 26 which extends back into Kings:
Dist 25 (pale violet red): 312,184 pop (-366) - 38.5% Obama - 42.8% avg Dem - 78% white
Dist 26 (gray): 313,187 (+637) - 71.4% Obama - 72% avg Dem - 36.1% Hispanic - 26.8% white - 21.9% asian
Lower Manhattan covering districts 27 & 28:
Dist 27 (spring green): 311,426 pop (-1,124) - 86.3% Obama - 83.4% avg Dem - 67.9% white
Dist 28 (plum): 312,041 (-509) - 75.4% Obama - 70.1% avg Dem - 78.3% white
Upper Manhattan displaying districts 29 & 30:
Dist 29 (dark sea green): 311,355 pop (-1,195) - 85.8% Obama - 83.7% avg Dem - 66.4% white
Dist 30 (light coral): 312,629 (+79) - 95.1% Obama - 94.4% avg Dem - 42.6% black - 35.8% hispanic
The Bronx and the northern tip of Manhattan, districts 31-35:
Dist 31 (khaki): 312,172 pop (-378) - 90.6% Obama - 91.3% avg Dem - 68% Hispanic
Dist 32 (orange red): 312,260 (-290) - 95.1& Obama - 96.3% avg Dem - 65.6% Hispanic
Dist 33 (royal blue): 313,603 (+1,053) - 94.8% Obama - 95.9% avg Dem - 66.1% Hispanic
Dist 34 (lime green): 313,540 (+990) - 90.1% Obama - 91.5% avg Dem - 57.8% Hispanic
Dist 35 (dark orchid): 312,936 (+386) - 89.7% Obama - 90.6% avg Dem - 56.4% black
We now add southern Westchester County to the view of the Bronx in order to see all of districts 36 & 37:
Dist 36 (orange): 311,954 pop (-596) - 59.1% Obama - 58.3% avg Dem
Dist 37 (dodger blue): 312,823 (+273) - 66% Obama - 66.3% avg Dem
The lower Hudson Valley, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and portions of Dutchess Counties, covering districts 38-41:
Dist 38 (medium aquamarine): 311,405 pop (-1,145) - 62.5% Obama - 62% avg Dem
Dist 39 (moccasin): 311, 152 (-1,398) - 50% Obama - 51.9% - avg Dem
Dist 40 (firebrick): 311,687 (-863) - 52.6% Obama - 58.8% avg Dem
Dist 41 (light steel blue): 311,904 (-646) - 50.1% Obama - 54.3% avg Dem
A slightly wider view of the Lower Hudson Valley adds in Ulster and Sullivan Counties and district 42:
Dist 42 (lawn green): 312,656 (+106) - 59.2% Obama - 58.4% avg Dem
Moving north up the Hudson we see districts 43-45:
Dist 43 (magenta): 312,730 pop (+180) - 55.5% Obama - 56.7% avg Dem
Dist 44 (medium violet red): 312,032 (-518) - 48.1% Obama - 48.4% avg Dem
Dist 45 (turquoise): 312,627 (+77) - 63.4% Obama - 64.7% avg Dem
A view of the Capital District north covering districts 45-47:
Dist 46 (tomato): 311,089 pop (-1,461) - 52.4% Obama - 53.5% avg Dem
Dist 47 (thistle): 311,556 (-994) - 50.3% Obama - 52% avg Dem
And on up into the North Country, districts 48-50):
Dist 48 (sandy brown): 311,812 pop (-738) - 56.8% Obama - 57.4% avg Dem
Dist 49 (indian red): 312,015 (-535) - 45.6% Obama - 51.7% avg Dem
Dist 50 (powder blue): 311,656 (-894) - 49.4% Obama - 53.7% avg Dem
Moving west into the central part of the state we see districts 51-55:
Dist 51 (saddle brown): 311,166 pop (-1,384) - 56.7% Obama - 58.7% avg Dem
Dist 52 (olive drab): 313,013 (+463) - 58.6% Obama - 58.2% avg Dem
Dist 53 (gainsboro): 313,646 (+1,096) - 51.4% Obama - 50.2% avg Dem
Dist 54 (peach puff): 313,487 (+937) - 52.4% Obama - 53.2% avg Dem
Dist 55 (rosy brown): 313,552 (+1,002) - 49.3% Obama - 51.1% avg Dem
A close-up of Monroe County and the City of Rochester featuring district 56:
Dist 56 (blue): 313,902 pop (+1,352) - 73.1% Obama - 73% avg Dem
Western New York, districts 57-59:
Dist 57 (green): 312,181 pop (-369) - 47.9% Obama - 51.4% avg Dem
Dist 58 (dark magenta): 312,924 (+374) - 44.6% Obama - 42.3% avg Dem
Dist 59 (red): 311,695 (-855) - 45.8% Obama - 43.7% avg Dem
And finally Erie Co and the City of Buffalo, districts 60-62:
Dist 60 (gold): 313,746 pop (+1,196) - 53.7% Obama - 49.5% avg Dem
Dist 61 (teal): 311,572 (-978) - 77% Obama - 73.1% avg Dem
Dist 62 (dark gray): 313,325 (+775) - 46.7% Obama - 42.5% avg Dem
The election numbers listed on Dave's app are from 2008 a very Democratic friendly year. On the current map, on the Senate republican's proposed map, and on this map there are many districts that these numbers show as favoring Democrats that are currently held by, and likely to continue to be held by, Republicans at the State Senate level. In a few cases the margins aren't even narrow. As such my estimation below as to party balance resulting from this map is quite subjective.
As of this writing the Senate balance is 32 Republicans, 25 Democrats, 4 Independent Democrats and 1 open seat formerly held by a Democrat but winnable by Republicans.
By my estimation this map would likely result in a balance of:
38 Democratic seats (of which 3-4 shouldn't be won by Republicans but are of the 56% type that the Republicans cling to for their current majority)
4 Democratic leaning swing seats
7 Republican leaning swing seats
13 Solid Republican seats
Worst case scenario for Democrats as I see it would be a 34-28 majority and best case would be a 2/3 majority of 42-20.
This map would also likely result in 7 Hispanic-American held seats, 6 African-American, and 2 Asian-American seats. I might have been able to squeeze out another minority district and perhaps two if I had made that a priority in this drawing.
While a lot of outrage has gone into the creation of a 63rd Senate district the fact is that adding a 63rd district is not where the problem is. The problem is in how that district is created... by making use of a too wide latitude for population variance by shorting 20 upstate district 15,000 people each... and in how the lines are drawn in the first place. Using the sort guidelines I used above and drawing 63 rather than 62 districts would not result in a demonstrable difference in the balance of power.
Only by dramatic gerrymandering in drawing the lines can the Republicans steal a level of power in New York State that simply does not represent the make-up of the states citizens.