I did any analysis of the jungle primary before, now I'm analyzing the general election and some of the previous history of the seat. Adding a link to the map
http://www.mpimaps.com/...
Ventura County was long a reliable strong hold for Republicans, giving double digit majorities to Reagan and Bush I. A mix of farming territory and suburban communities, those factors were once enough to keep it reliably red, but not anymore.
In just twenty years, the Democratic share of the overall vote total more than doubled, while the Republican share stayed almost exactly the same as it was all those years ago. Like with many areas, Hispanic growth has given the county a much bluer hue, particularly in Oxnard, which has seen much of the county's growth. Redistricting reflected those changes, by transforming the 24th district from a reliably Republican one to the marginal 26th district.
Rep. Elton Gallegly chose not to run for re-election in this district, which does not include his hometown of Simi Valley. The interesting thing about it is that Gallegly held a district that looked almost identical to this in the 1990s, but instead of Simi Valley being extracted, Thousand Oaks was and at the time, Thousand Oaks was voting as Republican, if not slightly more than Simi Valley. The trend has been just that strong. Let's look at the numbers a Democrat needs to win this seat.
Camarillo |
41% |
Fillmore |
54% |
Moorpark |
41% |
Ojai |
61% |
Oxnard |
66% |
Port Hueneme |
59% |
San Buenaventura |
57% |
Santa Paula |
60% |
Simi Valley |
41% |
Thousand Oaks |
41% |
Westlake Village |
42% |
Unincorporated |
46% |
These are the benchmarks for a 50-49% win, but certainly not the ceiling for a Democrat. Some of these benchmarks seem high, but they really aren't. Steve Bennett is from Ventura, so he'd run up the numbers there, which is one of the places that needs to go big in order win. If he's facing Parks, then the math is little more difficult, because some more moderate areas would skew toward her. She might even play well in the Ojai Valley, even if not winning there outright, but even just a slight over-performance would help. Bennett's Supervisor district stretches into the Ojai Valley, so he has a base there. Port Hueneme and places like the Silver Strand, Hollywood Beach and Oxnard Beach areas of Oxnard are also places where Parks would play very well.
Strickland would rely more on the conservative areas, as he doesn't have the crossover support that Parks has, so Bennett would have worry less about bleeding moderates and could focus more on gaining crossover support. As far as the jungle primary goes, I think Parks is at a disadvantage to make the top two, as more conservative voters will favor Strickland and many moderate voters will also be looking at the Democrats in the race. Strickland won a State Senate race in 2008 because of Simi Valley and rural, interior Santa Barbara County, areas he won't have for this race.
Most of the areas that vote heavily Democrats are also heavily Hispanic, so turn out is key and the Presidential election will help. Oxnard and Santa Paula are particularly Hispanic, with many precincts being over 60-70% so and this is exactly where the turnout operation must really be at the top of it's game to assure that the benchmarks are met. Now, let's look at the electorate distribution.
Camarillo |
11% |
Fillmore |
1% |
Moorpark |
5% |
Ojai |
1% |
Oxnard |
15% |
Port Hueneme |
2% |
San Buenaventura |
17% |
Santa Paula |
2% |
Simi Valley |
2% |
Thousand Oaks |
22% |
Westlake Village |
2% |
Unincorporated |
15% |
This distribution is for a very narrow race, in a Presidential year, Oxnard will account for a larger share of the electorate. This demonstrates how important turnout is here, because just a small shift in any of the Democratic leaning areas turnout would make or break the race. More turnout would help take some of the pressure of meeting some of the higher benchmarks in base areas and allow for slightly lower ones in less favorable areas.
CA-26 is one of the best pickup opportunities Democrats have and it should be quite close to the top of the DCCC's list of seats.