...it's not bad for the Democrats. Let's look at the "least change" map that was posted in today's live digest.
|
McCain '08 |
Obama '08 |
District 1 |
67.2% |
31.0% |
District 2 |
52.9% |
45.1% |
District 3 |
48.9% |
49.8% |
District 4 |
58.6% |
39.5% |
The new 3rd is actually a bit worse for Team Blue than the old one was (old KS-03 went 51-48 for Obama), but its not by much--one point, if that. Let's look at KS-02. Old KS-02 went 55-43 for McCain. New KS-02 would have gone 53-45. Again, it's not a huge swing, but here's why that's important:
In 2008, Dennis Moore (D) won KS-03 56-40. True, he was one of those old entrenched Blue Dogs, but it's still impressive to run ahead of the President in one of the best Democratic years in recent memory. Meanwhile, in KS-02, Nancy Boyda (D) was defeated for reelection 51-46. A two point swing makes that 49-48. Perhaps if the district had been that much bluer the DNC would have chipped in some money and Nancy Boyda would have lived to fight for two more years.
I don't pretend to know much about Kansas or its local politics; however, I think that in a very good blue year, similar to what we saw in 2008, this could be a solidly 2-2 map. Given how precarious the situation was last time we had 2-2, I'll consider this an improvement.
DRA file here.