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Leading Off:

California: Check it out: Daily Kos Elections has put together an indispensible California congressional cheat sheet. It's been hard to keep track of who is running where, and which seats are actually competitive, in the wake of the state's radical new redistricting plan—which also rather unhelpfully deployed a new (and confusing) numbering scheme. But keep our cheat sheet bookmarked and you'll always be in the know.

4Q Fundraising:

ND-AL: Kevin Cramer (R): $215K raised, $197K cash-on-hand


IN-Sen: Sen. Dick Lugar is returning to the airwaves with an ad about how he's constantly opposed Obama (sure), but weirdly, his campaign hasn't even posted it online yet, though you can see snippets in this news report. Don't you get the maximum impact when you can actually show people your television spots?

Meanwhile, Lugar's Republican primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Mourdock, is also going up with TV ads—his first—but the buy is for an embarrassingly puny $4,000. (Why they admitted that is beyond me.) You can watch the spot, which predictably goes after Lugar for his many apostasies, here. I've said all along that Mourdock will need some serious outside assistance to unseat Lugar, but so far, the usual suspects (like the Club for Growth) have been AWOL… and Mourdock really could use some help at this point.

NE-Sen: Republican pollster Magellan took a look at a possible Bob Kerrey comeback bid and finds him with a dead-even 43-43 favorability rating and losing to two Republican contenders they tested: AG Jon Bruning is ahead 51-40 and Treasurer Don Stenberg leads 47-39. Magellan also asked about two other potential Democratic candidates: state Sen. Steve Lathrop and former Lt. Gov. Kim Robak, both of whom trail by even wider margins—but that's because of their much lower name recognition. Indeed, neither Republican gets more than 52% in any matchup. Several folks have also noted that the sample composition seems to be a bit red, at 55R, 34D and 11I.

NJ-Sen: Farleigh Dickinson University. 1/2-8. Registered voters. MoE ±3.5% (9/19-25/2011 results):

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 43 (49)
Joe Kyrillos (R): 31 (28)
Undecided: 26 (22)

Bob Menendez (D-inc): 43
Anna Little (R): 31
Undecided: 26

NY-Sen: LOL. These new Siena poll numbers for Dem Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand are pretty funny: 63-22 over Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos and 62-23 over 2010 state comptroller candidate Harry Wilson. Siena didn't test founder Marc Cenedella, not that it would have made a difference.

PA-Sen: Tea Partier Laureen Cummings probably rates just high enough to be worthy of a mention here: She dropped out of the Senate race and endorse businessman Tim Burns instead. Not exactly a move that's going to have a major impact, though, since her campaign was going nowhere.


AL-02: No comeback bid for ex-Rep. Bobby Bright, who served a single term before losing a very tight race in an extremely tough district in 2010 to Republican Martha Roby. There had only been the vaguest of hints that Bright was thinking about a rematch, so this development isn't exactly surprising, but one interesting note is that, much like had had before his initial run in 2008, Bright was considering a run either as a Democrat or a Republican. (Bright's previous job, serving as mayor of Montgomery, was technically non-partisan.) Unlike that fool Parker Griffith in the 5th CD at the other end of the state, Bright probably realized he was screwed either way and wisely decided to stay away.

AL-04: Alabama was one of two states whose congressional filing deadline was Friday. (The other was neighboring Mississippi.) Democrats managed to field candidates in five of the state's six GOP-held seats, but since all are safely red, it's hard to imagine anything interesting happening, especially since these guys are all pretty much Some Dudes.

One unusual exception, first noted in comments late last week is state Rep. Daniel Boman, running in Bob Aderholt's AL-04, one of the reddest seats in the nation. If Boman's name sounds at all familiar, it's because he's the fellow who made the incredibly unusual move of switching from the Republicans to the Democrats last year, after winning a fluke race in a heavily Dem district in 2010. Alabama state House terms last four years, so this is a free shot for Boman, and may constitute an attempt to prove his Democrat bona fides to help him survive an almost inevitable primary challenge in 2014.

AR-04: It looks like D.C. Morrison, the conservative Some Dude who helped force a run-off in last cycle's Democratic Senate primary between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, is running for office again, this time in the open 4th CD. Democrats have a legit recruit here in the form of state Sen. Gene Jeffress, so hopefully Morrison won't crumb the play.

CA-21: Democrats have gotten a little bit desperate ever since state Sen. Michael Rubio unexpectedly dropped out of the race for the open 21st CD late last month. Republican Assemblyman David Valadao has been running a vigorous campaign for this swingish seat (which, by my math, really represents a place where Democrats are playing defense), but Team Blue presently doesn't have a candidate. Everyone is still waiting on former state Sen. Dean Florez to make up his mind, but in the meantime, Dems are trying to recruit Fresno City Councilmember Blong Xiong. There's just one difficulty with this idea: Fresno is in the neighboring 16th CD, not the 21st.

CA-26: Wonder if this had anything to do with GOP Rep. Elton Gallegly's decision to retire….

CA-30: Hoo boy, this is a big one. The California SEIU, which has 700,000 members, just endorsement Rep. Howard Berman, who of course is running against fellow Rep. Brad Sherman in the Democratic primary in the 30th. While Sherman represents a much larger portion of the new 30th than Berman does (58% vs. 20%), it's Berman who's been locking up most of the major endorsements. I'm starting to feel like Sherman might really get burned here.

CA-31: This is probably the clearest sign so far that Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, who jumped into the Democratic primary just last week, is legit: Businessman Russ Warner, who unsuccessfully ran twice in a predecessor to this district and was hoping the third time would be the charm, is dropping out of the race. Instead, Warner will run for the state Assembly's 40th District against GOP Assemblyman Mike Morrell.

MS-04, MS-01, MS-02: Rounding up the filings in Mississippi, it doesn't look like we'll see much action here, either. In MS-04, longtime Dem Rep. Gene Taylor unsurprisingly decided against a comeback, though he held the door open (very slightly) to a possible run in the future. On the Republican side, Rep. Steven Palazzo (the guy who beat Taylor last cycle) managed to avoid a serious primary challenge, with the two biggest names that had been mentioned—state Sen. Michael Watson and attorney Brian Sanderson—both taking a pass. This development is fairly surprising, since Palazzo started looking like a fuckup very quickly into his brief tenure, and as a freshman, he's at his most vulnerable. Too bad.

Meanwhile, in MS-01, won by Democrat Travis Childers in a major upset victory in 2008 but lost, of course, in 2010, Childers' former chief-of-staff Brad Morris decided to run. (I don't think there'd ever been any suggestion that Childers himself might try again.) And in the state's only Dem-held seat, Bennie Thompson's MS-02, former Greenville Mayor Heather McTeer did indeed file to run in the Democratic primary, though her campaign has raised very little to date.

OR-01: Hmm. What are we to make of this? Republican Rob Cornilles is touting an internal poll from Moore Information showing him down just four points to Suzanne Bonamici, 46-42. The two public polls of this race, a recent one from SurveyUSA and an older one from PPP, both had Bonamici up 11. I'm tempted to say that the NRCC's lack of spending here matters more than Cornilles' internal, but NY-09 also saw an absence of national Republican money until the very last second, and we all know how that turned out. Of course, these two districts are rather different in most respects, but it's hard not to feel a little antsy after Bob Turner's September upset. Still, one major problem the GOP would face even if they did try to parachute in here at the last minute is that ballots have already been mailed and every day Republicans wait, Bonamici's lead gets locked in even further.

PA-03: Attorney Ron DiNicola, who almost knocked off GOP Rep. Phil English in this district back in 1996 (losing by just 1.4%), will not run against Republican freshman Mike Kelly. DiNicola also won't seek retiring GOP state Sen. Jane Earll's seat, a top Democratic pickup opportunity we've mentioned previously, thanks to its blue lean.

PA-07: Keegan Gibson at PoliticsPA writes that Democrats are growing increasingly antsy as they wait for ex-Rep. Joe Sestak to make a decision about a possible comeback bid for his old seat, particularly since campaigns have just three weeks to gather signatures to get on the ballot, starting Jan. 24. Real estate investor Arlin Green is getting talked up as a possible alternative to take on freshman GOPer Pat Meehan, but Green himself isn't commenting. Gibson also mentions in passing that newspaperman Doug Pike, who heavily self-funded an unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination in PA-06 last cycle, won't run here. This is the first time I'd seen Pike's name come up in connection with the 7th, though Pike suggested last summer that he might seek a rematch in the 6th.

WA-01: Here's some evidence that the GOP isn't exactly comfortable with having Snohomish County Councilor (and narrow '10 WA-02 loser) John Koster as their standard-bearer in the newly swingy 1st. PubliCola hears that the GOP has been trying to recruit state Sen. Andy Hill, from the upscale suburban part of the district, into the race, but that he's said no. While I haven't mentioned Hill in the digest before, I've said in comments that he's the Republican in the district who'd scare me most—much more so than Koster, whose borderline-Paulism is a great fit for the rural parts of the district but a terrible fit for the Microsoft suburbs. On the one hand, Hill is only a freshman, having knocked off flaky Dem incumbent Eric Oemig in the Dem-leaning, Redmond-based LD-45 in 2010, but on the other hand, he's an old-school moderate suburban Republican, and one with that "up-and-comer" sheen to him. (David Jarman)

WV-02: Attorney Thornton Cooper, who is in charge of candidate recruitment for the Kanawha County Democratic Executive Committee and is also one of the litigants who successfully sought to overturn the legislature's congressional map, says he will run against Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito if no one else can be found.

Other Races:

NY-St. Sen: Democratic NYC Councilman Lew Fidler formally kicked off his campaign for Karl Kruger's vacant state Senate seat on Monday, and also secured the backing of the Independence Party. Meanwhile, GOP candidate David Storobin says he's already raised $70K and has chipped in $50K of his own money in the form of a loan. Fidler, for his part, says he has "at least" $400K on hand, which is a good number, but also shows that his fundraising really slowed down in the second half of the year. (He reported $330K in the bank at the mid-point of 2011.)

PA-AG: As expected, the Pennsylvania Democratic Party did not endorse anyone for attorney general at its state committee meeting this past weekend. The hurdle was quite high: Candidates needed to clear a two-thirds majority to secure the party's official backing. Former PA-08 Rep. Patrick Murphy came close, getting 191 votes on the second ballot (just over 60%) to 125 for former Philadelphia prosecutor Dan McCaffery. Both men, along with former Lackawanna prosecutor Kathleen Kane, say they will continue to seek the Democratic nomination.

Grab Bag:

Census: If you spend a lot of time looking at Census data, you've probably noticed that "Hispanic" gets listed separately as an ethnicity, not as a race, leaving Hispanics, when filling out the "race" portion of the Census, to choose between being white, black, Native American, or "some other race." (The split between "white" and "some other" seems to break down about half-and-half, though this seems to vary from place to place, and from nationality to nationality, such as Mexican-Americans vs. Cuban-Americans.) The New York Times has an interesting new look at this problem, how the Census Bureau is struggling to make sense of it, and how individual Latinos weigh the factors in the decision on which box to check. (David Jarman)

Passings: Former West Virginia Gov. Hulett Smith died on Sunday at the age of 93. Smith, a Democrat, served from 1965 to 1969, back when West Virginia limited its governors to a single term.

WATN?: Former Dem Rep. Marion Berry of Arkansas, who cited health concerns when he retired in 2010, is currently undergoing treatment for cancer. Berry had surgery on a brain tumor last year and was later diagnosed with lymphoma. Needless to say, we wish him the best.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: Arizona's independent redistricting commission will soon breathe a huge sigh of relief: On Tuesday, they'll vote to adopt final maps for the state, now that all necessary internal reviews have been complete. The only changes deal with correcting a few split precincts. Then it's off to the Justice Department for preclearance, but I haven't seen any suggestion that there might be any Voting Rights Act-related issues lurking here. Major props to independent commissioner Colleen Mathis, for keeping her cool under unprecedented fire (including, of course, Gov. Jan Brewer's failed impeachment attempt) and for a job well done.

CT Redistricting: Sounds like Republicans are about ready to give up the ghost: State House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero says the GOP will likely ask the state supreme court to reconsider the special master's new congressional map, but even Cafero acknowledges such a request probably won't go anywhere. Cafero, incidentally, has been one of the whiniest whiners about redistricting in the entire nation. Check this out:

In effect, said Cafero, the court engaged in a "charade" by bringing in the high-priced legal expert to recommend an overly simplified solution to the redistricting impasse with which Republicans and Democrats on the bipartisan Redistricting Commission ended 2011. The same report could have been done "by a clerk with a calculator," he said.

Cafero sounds like a patient who visits a Park Avenue oncologist and then is pissed to find out that the growth is benign and invasive surgery won't be necessary. There's a good reason why the court mandated the master follow a "least change" approach: The 2001 map passed by the legislature is the only expression of the people's will that is available to guide the court, since Connecticut's redistricting panel was unable to reach agreement this time around. Engaging in radical changes to the prior map would involve substituting the court's judgment for the legislature's—a bad idea when the only legal violation asserted (population inequality) can be remedied with minor changes. What petulant Republicans wanted was, indeed, judicial activism. Glad to see them get smacked down.

TN Redistricting: That was quick: Tennessee's legislature approved new congressional and legislative maps on Friday, just a week after the plans were first publicly introduced. Now they go to GOP Gov. Bill Haslam, who is expected to sign them.

TX Redistricting: We previously mentioned that if Texas's primaries are delayed yet again, they could jeopardize both parties' state conventions, which are scheduled for June and for which hefty deposits have already been paid. But what struck me most is how little money the Texas Republicans have in the bank:

With contractual obligations to host as many as 18,000 people June 7-9 at the Fort Worth Convention Center, the Republican Party of Texas could be on the hook for "hundreds of thousands of dollars," Elam said, if the convention doesn't go on as planned.

And with about $640,000 cash on hand, Elam said, a hit that big would be significant, especially for a party that was $500,000 in the red in 2010.

Democrats aren't exactly well off, with only $141K in their coffers, though it's been a long time since Texas Dems were flush. But for the biggest political party in the second-biggest state in the nation, I'm surprised to see the GOP living hand-to-mouth like this.

VA Redistricting: The GOP-drawn incumbent-protection map that has been kicking around since early last year cleared Virginia's full state House on Friday and now moves on to the state Senate, where passage is also expected.

WI Redistricting: This was all so bloody predictable. You'll recall that last year, Wisconsin Republicans forced through a new set of redistricting plans before local municipalities could redraw their wards, as state law (and tradition) had always called for. Instead, to draft their maps, the legislature relied on data from the Census Bureau, which is riddled with inaccuracies (and indeed had caused problems a decade earlier as well). The problem is so grave that the state's Government Accountability Board said that in some cases, they literally cannot comply with the laws describing the new district lines. An example:

For example, lawmakers used census maps that were off by 0.1 mile in part of Rock County, making it appear that nine houses in Janesville were instead in the Town of Harmony. Likewise, a Town of Harmony house incorrectly appeared to be in Janesville in the data the Legislature used.

That creates a problem because Janesville residents cannot be given a Town of Harmony ballot, the memo noted.

The GAB has identified numerous errors just like this one, affecting thousands of voters. And time is running short to fix them all, because Wisconsin's so-called "spring primary" for local offices is coming up on Feb. 21. And note that "fixing" these issues actually means violating the law as written. What a mess, and a completely avoidable one, too.

WV Redistricting: Senate Majority Leader John Unger, one of the main forces behind the lawsuit which found West Virginia's congressional map unconstitutional due to population inequality issues, says he's working on gathering support in the legislature for an alternative plan. I haven't seen a map yet, but Phil Kabler of the Charleston Gazette describes it as follows:

Unlike the "perfect population plan" he proposed during the special session on redistricting, the new plan has several revisions to make it more palatable to legislators, particularly in that it does not split Kanawha or Harrison counties, nor does it put Republican incumbents Shelley Moore Capito and David McKinley in the same district.

It links the fast-growing Eastern Panhandle with fast-growing north central West Virginia in the 1st District -- or at least Monongalia and Marion counties; Harrison would go into the 2nd. The proposed 1st would also include the Northern Panhandle, which critics might say could make McKinley vulnerable to a candidate from the Eastern Panhandle.

It also creates a relatively compact 2nd District, with Kanawha as the southernmost county.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Conrad may be tapped for a cabinet post... (5+ / 0-)

    That would screw us pretty badly... I don't understand why Obama likes to screw over our delegations.  I thought he would have learned by now that it's a bad deal for us.  Pick a senator with a Dem governor at least.


    by LordMike on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 05:37:31 AM PST

  •  I hate to say this, but WV will likely end up (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, drhoosierdem, jncca

    being 2-1 R again in 2012.

    Oh, well. Other than the House delegation, Republicans have nothing there!

    Progressive Dixiecrat. 19, LSU student, NC resident

    by MilesC on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 05:53:12 AM PST

  •  PA-03, PA-07 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, bythesea, MichaelNY

    I met Missa Eaton at state committee this weekend, and she says she's announcing this week.  Probably falls under Some Dude territory until further notice.

    Also, Doug Pike now lives in PA-02 (Lower Merion), by my calculations.

  •  or-01 supposedly tightening (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

    Carla at blueoregon posted about Moore's incredibility in his polling, and while most of the comments there were fair, this one was not:

    In July 2008, Moore told the Oregonian that polling showing Jeff Merkley in the lead over then Senator Gordon Smith was done with "flawed methodology" and that Merkley wasn't well known enough at that point. Merkley ultimately won the contest a few months later, 49.8% to 45.6%.

    I have little doubt that Merkley wasn't well known in July 2008.  Even most of the people in his legislative district, which was 1/60th of the state, probably didn't know him before the senate campaign.  Whether he was leading Smith at that point... I doubt it was a real or significant lead.  If you look at pollster's aggregate, it wasn't until the Wall Street crash in mid September that the race really shifted to Merkley.  And even then, it was more a rejection of Smith and even more so a Democrat v. Republican thing than anything particular about Merkley.  He was generic Democrat to most voters.  He's still not well known.

    Overall, Moore is a Republican pollster with a weird methodology.  That the best Cornilles can come up with is a four point deficit in an internal, as Sao said, doesn't really indicate this seat is up for grabs.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:26:38 AM PST

  •  Jeffress (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GradyDem, MichaelNY

    I hear that Jeffress is literally not raising money in AR-04 because he doesn't want to ask for it. This comes from another DKE user.

  •  Lugar may be old but he's down with new politics (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY
    Don't you get the maximum impact when you can actually show people your television spots?

    Not really.  Sometimes you're better off sending your message indirectly, by producing the ad and letting the media report it second-hand, than by disseminating it directly to voters.  especially if you're someone like Lugar, who doesn't especially like fighting words and is probably exasperated that he has to actually stand for election, much less in his own party.

    But nobody's buying flowers from the flower lady.

    by Rich in PA on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:39:55 AM PST

    •  Perhaps the biggest question about Dick Lugar is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rich in PA, MichaelNY, jncca

      that no one really knows how good of a politican he is anymore.  1982 is the last time he had really any kind of contested race, so he hasn't had to fight for anything since then (including his rather anemic attempt at running for President in 1996).

      He spends very little time in Indiana, and when he is here, public appearances are very scripted and controlled.  And, he's looking really old.  If this race gets close, and he's actually going to need to get out and work for votes and perfrom in closely-watched debates, I have no idea how he's going to come off.  Yes, he is a senior statesman, but is he going to come off more "statesman," or more "senior"?

  •  WI redistricting - it's a real primary (4+ / 0-)

    with real voters and real seats. Not a "so-called" primary.

    It's the primary for school boards, city councils, mayors, and county boards, with the general election in April. Several of my friends are running for these offices, and these redistricting snafus have very real implications for those elections.

    Since these districts were drawn with concerns towards the larger (legislative and congressional) districts, there was no attention paid to the local wards and districts. And it shows.

    Even the city clerks are unsure where people will vote, or who they will be voting for.

    Mere passive citizenship is not enough. Men must be aggressive for what is right if government is to be saved from men who are aggressive for what is wrong. - Robert M. LaFollette

    by stcroix cheesehead on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:40:06 AM PST

  •  But! But! But! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tiger in BlueDenver, MichaelNY

    Republicans insist Gillibrand is vulnerable! She's unknown! She's upstate! She's a Manhattenite! She's a liberal! She's a girl!

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:47:10 AM PST

  •  SC-Pres (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Tiger in BlueDenver

    So does anyone here think Gingrich will get a late surge because of last night's debate? The debate audience was sure lapping up whatever Gingrich was saying last night for sure.

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:48:33 AM PST

    •  I don't think so. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I doubt Gingrich will even win up here in Greenville/Spartanburg area. I think he will, but I wouldn't be surptised if he doesn't.

      20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

      by aggou on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 08:54:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not (0+ / 0-)

        familiar with SC politics but who has that area locked down? Romney or Santorum?

        "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

        by ehstronghold on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 09:44:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not as familar as some cause I'm from NC (0+ / 0-)

          And only go to college up here, but from what I'm seeing, Gingrich has a lot of information around Greenville especially, from signs, to ads, etc. Santorum is starting to make his presence known now, too. I actually saw a car on campus Sunday with a Santorum bumper sticker.

          Rick Perry is coming to campus tomorrow for a meet and greet, so he's going to make a strong push up here. I think if they can split the vote enough, Romney might be able to pull out small wins in counties along I-85

          20, Male. DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

          by aggou on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 10:07:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  The Upcountry (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          The Upcountry (northern part of SC around Greenville and Spartanburg) is the center of social conservatism and religious fanaticism in South Carolina.  It should lean towards Gingrich and Santorum...though, I'm not sure how much Santorum being a northerner might hurt (less, I suspect, now that Gingrich is no longer a Baptist).  While the South Carolina lowcounrty (Charleston and coast) may have plenty of religious conservatives, it should be dominated by Chamber of Commerce types.

  •  You see what happens when wards aren't drawn? (0+ / 0-)

    I guess people underestimated the potential for things to go wrong when you rush recklessly.

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:48:48 AM PST

  •  WA-01: So the two most likely candidates (0+ / 0-)

    are Koster and DelBene?  Also, is redistricting really all done?

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:49:44 AM PST

    •  No (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The lege still has to adopt the maps, and they can (but likely won't) make small changes.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 08:34:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's not quite how it works (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sapelcovits

        The maps automatically go into effect thirty days after they are submitted. The Legislature has that period of time in which to make changes. If the Legislature does nothing the new maps are adopted.

        Also... the current 45th LD is not "Redmond-based". It only includes a narrow slice of the city. Most of Redmond is in the 48th LD. Even more of Redmond will be in the 48th after the new maps go into effect.

        Andy Hill lives in the eastern portion of the district, which is more exuburban than suburban. His neighborhood is in unincorporated King County.

        Not sure why you call Eric Oemig flaky. He could've run a stronger reeelection campaign, sure, but then, so could many of his colleagues. Roger Goodman, who represents the 45th, was almost knocked out by a guy with no qualifications or experience. We think he only survived because he had a tough challenge from Toby Nixon in 2008. Eric Oemig did not have to run in the 2008 cycle.

        We lost many of the Class of 2006 in 2010 (state senators serve four year terms). Claudia Kauffman got knocked out by Joe Fain, Chris Marr was ousted by Michael Baumgartner, and so on. 2010 just wasn't a good year for Democrats. We did manage to hang on to the state Senate, but barely.

        Finally, keep in mind that PubliCola is a gossip and rumor mill. Not the best place to go for political analysis and reporting in our region. Have you checked out Pacific NW Portal at all? See link in signature.

        •  My bad (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          The entry you're referring to was written by David Jarman (who lives in WA), not by me. (I accidentally left his name off when I put this post together.) So I can't really respond to your points/questions.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Wed Jan 18, 2012 at 10:50:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  It is going to be a pleasure to watch (7+ / 0-)

    Senator Gillibrand bulldoze whichever halfassed Republican gets the GOP nomination to run against her.  

    That's going to be the bluest bulldozer you ever saw in your life.  

  •  how many (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    How many states have third party right wing spots, on the ballot, should Ron Paul decide to go that route?

    Apres Bush, le deluge.

    by melvynny on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:52:41 AM PST

  •  AZ-Redistricting was heartening. (6+ / 0-)

    We saw justice win big over tyranny and intimidation.

    'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:54:11 AM PST

  •  Carl Kruger... NY St Senate (5+ / 0-)

    not Karl. It's a C as in Corrupt.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 06:59:33 AM PST

  •  TX repub coffers - I'm not surprised (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    savvyspy, MichaelNY

    The repubs here in TX feel they have such a lock on the legislature (and why shouldn't they, they have a supermajority in both houses and pretty much if not every single state-wide office), that they don't need much money for the party.  The individual candidates just have to go out and say "oogity-boogity-Obama!" and the sheep around here empty their wallets.  Besides, deficits don't matter to the repubs, only when they want to make them a talking point for cutting education, healthcare, or assistance for the poor.

    I support the troops! I want them to return home in something besides caskets and body bags. (-6.5,-4.1)

    by minidriver on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 07:09:19 AM PST

  •  Anybody see the debate last night -- WOW (4+ / 0-)

    Although his performance was completely odious it really did seem to rile up the crowd and score points with the conservative base in SC. I think we can all agree that Mitt is almost certainly the nominee, but Gingrich is his only remaining opponent that can seriously challenge him, and if he can somehow squeeze out Santorum and Perry through a performance like this he could win the state and get some momentum towards seriously challenging Romney in Florida.

    25, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 07:11:22 AM PST

  •  Arkansas Senate (6+ / 0-)

    State Rep. Keith Ingram (D) has kicked off his campaign to primary State Senator Jack Crumbly (D). Crumbly screwed Democrats in redistricting by saying he needed extra Democratic voters or he couldn't get reelected. Here's hoping we get Ingram, who is just as liberal (if not more so) than Crumbly.

  •  Bob Kerrey in Nebraska (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, dc1000, MichaelNY

    I didn't get a chance to finish the first of yesterday's threads until late last night, when I got home from work, but I wanted to comment on Bob Kerrey's candidacy. drhoosierdem made the good point that the numbers we saw yesterday represent those before he's attacked. At the same time, can't we say the same thing about Bruning or the other candidates?

    I think the poll understated his support, by the way. Kerrey is hardly a progressive hero, but I don't see him getting only 77 percent of the Democratic vote. I figure he could easily get 90 percent of the Democratic vote, if not more. The real question to me is how well he will do with Independents. With a partisan break down of 28/50/22, he'll need to win 90 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Republicans, and 65 percent of Independents to get to 52 percent. That seems doable, but hard.

    •  Bob Kerrey polling (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      Thee poll is awfully red even for Nebraska. Voter turnout in Nebraska in 2010 was roughly 52R 40D and 8I. It is really hard to see that 2012 turnout would be a deeper shade of red than 2010. In all liklihood it would more closely resemble 2008 which was 49R 42D 9I.

      Like bjssp I think Kerrey would get 90%+ of the Democratic vote. In his last Senate race he got better than 75% of the independents and nearly 30% of the Republicans but when he narrowly won as governor he carried less than 12% of the Republican vote.

  •  Obama giving acceptance speech in (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    a stadium again. This time it will be the Bank of America stadium in Charlotte. Yeah, I'm guessing a lot of people here will have an issue with that, but, the stadium speech seemed to be a big boost for the campaign last time.

    My bigger concern, like last time, is what happens if it rains.

  •  Thank you sooo much for the CA cheatsheet! /nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, cany, MichaelNY

    "We're here to start a dialog, nothing more. We keep quiet and let the press, the politicians, and the Wall Streeters hang themselves." From a veteran protester in the civil rights days at Liberty Park. h/t to pistols at dawn.

    by mrsgoo on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 08:28:30 AM PST

  •  Bloomberg: bjssp Right About Mitt Romney's Taxes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Okay, that wasn't exactly the headline, shock of all shocks, but it looks as if I was right.

    Via Talking Points Memo, Bloomberg reporter Julie Davis says on her Twitter account that Romney just told reporters in Florence, South Carolina, that his tax rate is closer to 15 percent since most of his taxes are from investments.

    I've got a few, possibly contradictory thoughts on this. One is that this might be the best way to acknowledge the elephant in the room. I've said multiple times over the last few weeks that he would almost certainly have to release his returns at some point and was missing a big opportunity to do an information dump over a holiday weekend or something similar. By confirming suspicions now, he makes it far less potent during the general election campaign. Or does he? Why reveal it now? Is it because he's feeling the heat in South Carolina from his fellow Republicans? Even with him revealing this, we still don't know how much he paid and how much he might have otherwise paid had this crap not been allowed to go on. And even if we knew what he had and had not paid, his platform would STILL call for massive tax cuts for the rich in large part similar to the sort of benefit he now enjoys. In other words, I don't see this getting that much better for him, if it doesn't get actively worse. Any time Obama or some other Democrat attacks him for it, his response will be to defend himself, but he's then grouping himself with the very well off, with the plutocrats of the country. It's not a group he wants to be in--like when, for instance, there's a call for a new millionaire's tax.

  •  Thank you SO much for reposting, this morning, (0+ / 0-)

    the CA list. It was getting to be a confusing MESS and this is really, really helpful.

    If we have a shot at reclaiming the House, that path leads right through California. I am hoping someone in the know will consistently report in detail on House races in the golden state so we can keep and know where to apply both personal time and money.

    We have a shot at getting the democratically despised Gary Miller out of the House perhaps once and for all in the 31st and I am intending to help in that race in particular.


    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 08:59:06 AM PST

  •  Elton Gallegly (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Has been trying to retire since 2008 but the Republican establishment asked him to stay because of the lack of a viable Repub candidate.  It looks like this year , he's serious about retiring.  He's my rep and he votes party line and does little else.  It's time for him to go!  

    I do think the patriotic thing to do is to critique my country. How else do you make a country better but by pointing out its flaws? Bill Maher

    by gtghawaii on Tue Jan 17, 2012 at 09:12:24 AM PST

  •  If Buck McKeon rand Edolphus Towns retire (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, MichaelNY

    due to Countryside fallout along with Gallegly, so much the better.

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