This is how a Florida map might look if Democrats were able to draw it, using the fair redistricting amendment. In a way, this map is actually perfectly fair for Florida. It creates 14 likely Republican districts and 13 lean/likely Democratic districts. Republicans have a slight edge... about 52% of the districts, which is representative of the state's behavior in the past few elections. It's almost impossible for Democrats to do any better than 13 districts, because the Democratic strength in Florida is packed into the Miami metro and Republican strength is spread out across the state.
So let's begin!
Note: I did not search each Congressman/woman's hometown, I just put their names next to the districts they currently represent.
1: Pensacola (light green): Jeff Miller (R)
67/33 McCain (+1D over old district)
This district barely changes, and remains safe Republican.
2: Tallahassee-Gainesville (dark green): Steve Southerland (R)
59/41 Obama (+14D), 25% Black
The new second district goes from toss up/lean Blue Dog to safe Democratic. It unites two college towns, Tallahassee and Gainesville. There's also a lot of African American strength in this district. 59% Obama may not be safe in South Florida, but given the "Southern" nature of this district I think it will definitely elect a Democrat.
6: Panama City-Ocala (dark turquoise): Cliff Stearns (R)
65/35 McCain (-8D)
This district changes shape somewhat. It's still based in Ocala, but it takes in a good portion of Rich Nugent's 5th and Steve Southerland's 2nd. Safe for GOP.
3: Jacksonville (orange-red): Corrine Brown (D)
57/43 Obama (-16D), 33% Black
This district gets a little bit tougher for Democrats. It still meets VRA requirements because African Americans would be a majority in the Democratic primary. By reaching down into Palatka it becomes safer than a district that's entirely Jacksonville-centered, but Corrine Brown would still be in trouble seeing as she underperformed Obama by 10 points in 2010. You could make this district safer by reaching into Sanford, perhaps. Corrine Brown could still win here, but she'd actually have to put some effort into reelection. Lean D.
4: Greater Jacksonville (yellow): Ander Crenshaw (R)
71/29 McCain (-9D)
Safe Republican. Most conservative district in Florida.
7: Daytona (gray): John Mica (R)
50/50 McCain (+4D)
This space coast district is pretty marginal, it could potentially swing to a Democrat in a wave election. Suzanne Kosmas was elected in a similar area in '08. However, the geography of this district leads me to believe it would elect Republicans more often than not. Lean R.
5: Spring Hill-Dade Springs (purple): Richard Nugent (R)
57/43 McCain
This district shrinks a lot (I believe there was considerable population growth in this area) but still remains 57/43 McCain. Safe R.
15: Titusville-Vero Beach (orange): Bill Posey (R)
56/44 McCain (-4D)
Nice compact district on the Florida coast. Almost no county splits. Safe R.
9: Bayonet Point-Clearwater (cyan): Gus Bilirakis (R)
53/47 McCain
Likely R.
10: St. Petersburg (pink): Bill Young (R)
57/42 Obama (+6D)
Super-old Congressman Bill Young represents St. Petersburg, and by adding downtown St. Pink from Castor's district the 11th becomes more Democratic. This St. Petersburg district - recently named most depressing place in the U.S. (weird - I always thought it sounded like nice place?) - would probably elect a Democrat if Bill Young decides to retire.
11: Tampa (light green): Kathy Castor (D)
65/35 Obama (-1D), 47% White, 21% Black, 27% Hispanic
Safe D.
13: Manatee County (peach): Vern Buchanan
53/47 McCain
Likely R.
8: Orlando (purplish-blue): Daniel Webster (R)
59/41 Obama (+6D), 51% White, 24% Black, 18% Hispanic
Theoretically Alan Grayson still would've lost here in 2010, but in a more favorable political climate he might be able to make a comeback here. Likely D.
24: Lake-Seminole Counties (green): Sandy Adams (R)
54/46 McCain (-3D)
This district moves a lot actually; Adams might be representing new territory here. Still likely R.
27: Kissimmee (light green): OPEN (new district)
62/38 Obama, 43% White, 41% Hispanic
Hispanics make up a large portion of this district, Puerto Ricans, I believe. Safe D.
12: Lakeland (light blue): Dennis Ross (R)
55/45 McCain (-4D)
Likely R.
16: Sarasota-Port St. Lucie (bright green): Tom Rooney (R)
55/45 McCain (-2D)
Likely R. Still an ugly cross-Florida district but in a moment you will find out why that benefits...
22: Fort Myers-Okeechobee-Palm Beach (crimson): Allen West (R)
59/41 Obama (+7D), 22% Black, 17% Hispanic
West actually lives nowhere near this district but I had to put the number 22 somewhere. The 22nd takes in some AA strength from Alcee Hastings' dismantled district. Safe D.
14: Cape Coral (dark goldenish?): Connie Mack IV (R)
56/44 McCain (+2D)
Safe R.
19: Palm Beach County (light green): Ted Deutch (D)
63/37 Obama (-2D)
White majority. Safe D.
23: I-95 strip (blue): Alcee Hastings (D)
76/24 Obama (-7D), 40% White, 39% Black, 17% Hispanic
The former 23rd was an obvious racial and political gerrymander. This new district still strongly favors the election of an African American congressman or woman; there is still a lot of AA strength in the Democratic primary and Safe D in the general.
17: North Miami (navy blue): Frederica Wilson (D)
87/13 Obama, 53% Black, 32% Hispanic
Black majority, most Democratic district in Florida. Safe D.
20: Fort Lauderdale (light pink): Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
59/41 Obama (-4D)
This district becomes a few points more Republican, however seeing that Schultz has outperformed other Democrats in the past I think she'll be fine here. Safe D.
21: Coral Springs-Pembroke Pines-Hialeah (blood red): Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
57/43 Obama (+8D), 50% Hispanic
This district is technically a fourth Cuban VAP district. It is favorable to Democrats, but Diaz-Balart has done well in the past, winning without opposition in a marginal district in '10. However, Democrats could win here. Tilt D.
18: Hialeah-Miami-Miami Beach (yellow): Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
52/48 McCain (-3D), 75% Hispanic
This district is the Miami Republican vote sink. Miami may be the only major inner-city in America with a Republican representative. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen easily has the most bipartisan appeal of any South Florida Republican, so that's why I put her in the most Republican district. Safe R.
25: Coral Gables-Naples (light pink): David Rivera (R)
62/38 McCain (-11D), 58% Hispanic
This district stretches from Coral Gables over to Naples. And, yes, there is road contiguity via Rte 41, entirely within the district. Cuban VAP district, Safe R.
26: South Dade-Everglades-Keys (gray): OPEN (new district)
59/41 Obama, 55% Hispanic
New district covering beautiful territory. Favors Democrats.
That's all! Thoughts?