This is my first diary in a very long time, I usually just don't have time to do them. But I have a semi-coherent set of ideas on where the Republican primaries are headed, including some thoughts that I haven't seen others make, either here or in the political media. So it's worth laying it out here.
First, no surprise or drama in this, but Romney is the strong favorite now. He has a realistic chance of winning Iowa, maybe even 50-50. He's the strong favorite in New Hampshire. If he wins Iowa, game over, he wins New Hampshire and then probably drives a 30something% plurality toward him in South Carolina, followed by sealing the deal in Florida.
If Romney loses Iowa, then whoever wins Iowa becomes the only other candidate who matters, and maybe still doesn't really matter.
If Paul wins Iowa, which the chatter now says is possible, then that's the same as Romney winning Iowa, since Paul cannot win elsewhere and will have vanquished everyone else but Romney. Perry, Gingrich, and Cain all as of now have potential to win South Carolina, but no more than one or two of them can do well there.
If Gingrich wins Iowa, which appears more plausible with his claim of $4M raised in 6 weeks and his Iowa staff who quit on him coming back, then he might be able to ride it to a win in South Carolina, but then he's done. He doesn't have the money or campaign infrastructure to win anywhere else, except maybe a few scattered very conservative states like Huckabee did. Still, it will be a herculean task for Newt to avoid having his skeletons to sink him yet again.
Perry I had written off for dead after his last disastrous debate, but the chronic vacuum on the right from the crappy alternatives somehow has kept him still in it. He's on TV heavy trying to raise his positives, his ads aren't great but he and Paul are the only ones airing them and that matters. There's plenty of time for this schizphrenic electorate of GOP whackjobs to flip again back toward Perry in Iowa, so he could win. But reports are that his fundraising has dried up, he'll raise only $3M-$5M this quarter which isn't enough unless an Iowa win really propels him...which it could, he's willing to do the sucky grunt work to run a serious campaign.
Cain somehow still isn't quite toast, and could regain ground again if Newt implodes in time which easily could happen. But he now needs Newt to implode yet again, Cain no longer can just ride his previous surge.
Terry Branstad recently slammed Romney for refusing to campaign hard in Iowa, and what didn't get reported that I could see were a couple things I think Branstad and other establishment Iowa GOPers fear in the state. The problem the Iowa Republicans have is that they can get really hurt by the caucus outcome in a couple different ways. First, they could give victory to a whackjob candidate who clearly isn't qualified to be President and clearly would be destroyed by Obama, like Paul or Gingrich or Cain. That hurts the state party's, and the Iowa caucus', reputation. The Iowa winner goes out in a whimper in subsequent states as Romney cruises, and the state is embarrassed. The other way Iowa gets hurt is if Romney wins without trying. Then, too, just like in the first scenario, you have to ask what Iowa is good for, if the winner didn't even break a sweat, and those breaking a sweat got nothing to show for it. Either scenario hurts the Iowa Republican Caucuses' reputation going forward into future cycles. The only thing keeping Iowa's reputation intact in recent years has been the Democrats, since we picked the last two nominees.
Finally, it's worth taking note of the Magellan poll that came out today showing Gingrich down just 29-27 to Romney in New Hampshire(!). A shock poll for sure, from a pollster who has been somewhat reliable but not 100% trustworthy. This poll shouldn't be trusted unless one or two more corroborate it. If that happens, and New Hampshire becomes a real race, then we have the amazing horserace all of us and the media will love. Romney still could win the nomination, he'll still have a better campaign that's better able to survive a long slog. In fact, I'd say Romney still would be favored even if he barely eeks out a NH win.
But what if Newt wins Iowa and New Hampshire? Then Romney likely really is toast. That's the only thing that can kill Romney early: losing New Hampshire outright.
I still think this Newt boomlet will die out well before New Year's. His baggage is already getting searched again furiously, and now new stuff is coming out, not just the same stuff as before. But it's obvious GOP voters want someone other than Romney, and they do eventually have to make a final choice. Problem is for us Democrats to who want to run against not-Romney that the Goopers easily could just split up, too divided among Paul, Gingrich, Cain, and Perry. That hands it to Romney, which is what he's counting on.
Two things are obvious about who are serious players for the nomination. First, Romney still is attacking Perry, meaning they see Perry as the only internal threat with potential staying power, regardless of his poor polling now. Second, Team Obama is attacking Romney and only Romney. They don't think anyone else has a shot. But if someone else sneaks up and gets it, they'll be ready...it will be our dream come true if that happened.