As the federal court in San Antonio asked for preliminary maps in case the court proceedings wouldn’t be finished in time, I decided to try my best with the Lone Star state. I tried to maximize the influence of minority voters by creating as many minority-majority districts as possible. This is what I came up with:
CD1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R)
This district changes very little, adds Cherokee County and doesn’t stretch that far north instead. Still a majority white district that is heavily Republican. 67,4% white, 17,5% black, 12.9% Hispanic. Obama/McCain 30,9/69,1 (was 31/69). Safe Republican.
CD2 (Green): open
This district still includes Jefferson County, but now includes more of the coast instead of reaching into Northeast Harris County. This actually draws Ted Poe out of his district, even though he now resides in an even more Republican district (together with Kevin Brady), CD33. The district gets a nod less red, but still safe in all but very unique occasions. 57,3 w/19,1 b/19 h; Obama/McCain 42,2/57,6 (was 40/60). Republican favored.
CD3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R)
This district adds more of the white, Republican parts of Northeast Dallas County and only adds a bit of Collin County, which frees up space for a new district in Collin/Denton County (CD6). Maybe Johnson lives in the CD6-part of Plano, but it doesn’t really matter. Both are comparably safe for the Republican. But he might run in CD6 as Pete Sessions would probably want to run here. 65,2 w/9 b/17,1 h/6,9 a; Obama/McCain 42,2/57,8 (was 42/57). Republican favored.
CD4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R)
This district also loses its parts of Collin County, otherwise mostly keeps its form. It gets even more Republican. Totally safe for Hall and whoever follows him. 77,6 w/10,6 b/9,2 h; Obama/McCain 29/71 (was 30/69). Safe Republican.
CD5 (Gold): Joe Barton (R)
The old CD5 was – as the old CD6 – used to drain minority (and blue) precincts in Dallas County with an overwhelming number of rural precincts in central Texas. When throwing those districts out of Dallas County, the remaining parts are way too thinly populated to justify two district, so CD5 combines most of that territory. Joe Barton of CD6 lives in this district, while CD5-congressman Jeb Hensarling lives in Dallas. But as there won’t be a winnable district in Dallas County for a right-winger like Hensarling, he will probably want to run in this district as well. It is even safer than before after losing the blue Dallas precincts. 73,6 w/10,1 b/14,3 h; Obama/McCain 28,5/71,5 (was 36/63). Safe Republican.
CD6 (teal): open (or Sam Johnson)
As CD5 absorbs most of the old CD6-area as well, the number 6 is freed for a new district, centered in Collin with parts of Denton County. It is safely Republican. 67,2 w/8 b/12,5 h/10,5 a; Obama/McCain 36,6/63,4 (was 40/60). Safe Republican.
CD7 (DarkGray): who knows how many Houston-area Representatives
CD7 is no longer a white, Republican district in Western Harris County, but instead collects minority-heavy precincts in a ring in the Northern half of that county. I pretty much doubt John Culberson could keep that district, maybe he will try to flee to CD33 instead. This is the first new minority-majority district. As there is only one CD in Harris County left that is clearly dominated by African-Americans, maybe one of the two will dodge into this one. 34,7 w/25,7 b/31 h/7,5 a; Obama/McCain 52,1/47,9 (41/58). Leans Democratic.
CD8 (SlateBlue): open
CD8 barely changes, but just by withdrawing from a small part of Montgomery County, I drew The Woodlands resident Kevin Brady out of his district. As Ted Poe probably would run in CD33 (and maybe John Culberson too), Brady could still run in CD8. It doesn’t make a difference as CD8 is just as safely Republican as CD33. 75,3 w/9,5 b/13,1 h; Obama/McCain 26,2/73,8 (was 26/74). Safe Republican.
CD9 (DeepSkyBlue): Al Green (D) (and maybe other Houston-area Representatives)
This is probably not a district Al Green would be happy with. While it is still a minority-majority district, it is considerably less African-American and way more Republican as it moves Northwest into whiter and more Republican areas. This district might change hands more often, depending on who has the upper hand on turnout, so probably more Republican in midterms. It should be trending our way, though. The demographic info on Wikipedia for the old district doesn’t make sense as it adds up to way more than 100%, so I can’t say how much the demographics would change. 31,7 w/17,5 b/36,8 h/12,4 a; Obama/McCain 48,9/51,1 (was 77/33). Tossup.
CD10 (Coral): maybe Lloyd Doggett (D) and/or Michael McCaul (R) and/or John Carter (R)
I had no incentive to shatter Travis County into pieces like Republicans usually do, so I split it in half because it is too big for one CD. This one includes the whiter parts of the County, which are – unlike the rest of Texas – sufficiently liberal to be quite blue on their own without too much help by minorities. The district has the name Lloyd Doggett written all over it, though he might live in CD25 as well. I so, Kirk Watson or Donna Howard might run. Michael McCaul and John Carter may also live in this district or in CD25, but both districts are probably unwinnable for them. 73,3 w/3,2 b/14,4 h/7,2 a; Obama/McCain 56,1/43,9 (was 44/55). Democrat favored.
CD11 (Chartreuse): open
CD11 still is a pretty rural district, but it moves further southwest, losing Odessa and Midland. Thereby Mike Conaway was drawn out of his district, but he would probably still run here instead of challenging Randy Neugebauer in the primary. 76,3 w/3,2 b/18,1 h; Obama/McCain 27,2/72,8 (was 72,8). Safe Republican.
CD12 (CornflowerBlue): Kay Granger (R)
Kay Granger might live here or in the new CD35, but she would definitely run here. This district includes the whiter, Republican areas of Tarrant County, but stays within County borders. 77,6 w/5,6 b/11,1 h; Obama/McCain 32,9/67,1 (was 36/63). Safe Republican.
CD13 (LightPink): Mac Thornberry (R)
The district moves out of Wichita Falls and now includes Abilene. Otherwise the nature of this district barely changes. This is the most Republican district in my map, with a surprisingly high number of Latinos. 69 w/5,3 b/22,7 h; Obama/McCain 22,6/77,4 (was 23/77). Safe Republican.
CD14 (olive): open
Ron Paul might or might not live here, his home town of Lake Jackson is split with CD22, but it doesn’t matter as he will retire anyway. The district keeps parts of the coast, not as much though, but moves further into the area in between Austin and Houston. Maybe Michael McCaul night try to run in this district. 66,5 w/9,8 b/19,1 h; Obama/McCain 31,1/68,7 (was 33/66). Safe Republican.
CD15 (DarkOrange): open
Ruben Hinojosa lives in the new CD34 and would probably run there as it is the slightly safer district as well. As I created a new majority Latino district in Southwest Texas AND increased the Latino majority in CD23 considerably, the other districts had to give some of these voters. Their Democratic performance thereby shrunk as well. State Sen. Judith Zaffarini might run, even though she lives in Laredo outside the district. Other possibilities are State Reps. Sergio munoz Jr, Ryan Guillen or Veronica Gonzales. 24 w/2,2 b/72,1 h; Obama/McCain 54,7/45,3 (was 60/40). Leans Democratic.
CD16 (Lime): Silvestre Reyes (D)
Maybe Reyes lives in CD23 now as well, he won’t be pleased by this map either way. In order to increase the number of Latinos in CD23, I tried to free up some of them in El Paso by stretching CD16 into Odessa. It gets way redder on the way, Reyes might have to fight sometimes, but he should be fine. 23,1 w/3,6 b/ 70,9 h; Obama/McCain 56,5/43,5 (was 66/34). Democrat favored.
CD17 (Light Blue): Bill Flores (R)
This is a district that I drew with my partisan glasses on, trying to find a not-too-badly looking district in central Texas that is as Democratic as possible. This district probably has the name Chet Edwards written all over it. Still, it would have to be a Democrat of his qualities to win in this district. Maybe he might be helped by a brutal Republican primary, as John Carter has lost his district and might try to run here instead of retiring. Large parts of his district are now included here. 57,4 w/16,7 b/ 21,3 h; Obama/McCain 42,2/57,6 (was 32/67). Republican favored.
CD18 (Yellow): Maybe one of the Houston-area Representatives
This district moves south to concentrate on the heavily African-American areas in Harris County. Al Green might want to run here, just as Sheila Jackson Lee would probably want to as well. 28,5 w/42,7 b/21 h/6,4 a; Obama/McCain 72,1/27,9 (was 77/22). Safe Democrat.
CD19 (Tomato): Randy Neugebauer (R) and Mike Conaway (R)
This district loses Abilene and adds Midland, no big changes otherwise. It definitely keeps more parts of CD19, so Neugebauer should be favored in a primary against Conaway. Also surprisingly high number of Latinos for a district that Republican. 57,4 w/5,3 b/34,2 h; Obama/McCain 26,3/73,7 (was 27/72). Safe Republican.
CD20 (Pink): maybe Charlie Gonzalez (D) and/or Quico Cinseco (R) and/or Lamar Smith (R)
This district in downtown San Antonio gets considerably less Latino and thereby less Democratic as well. Gonzalez is a moderate Democrat and should be fine though, assuming he runs here. 30,1 w/4,3 b/61,7 h; Obama/McCain 55,6/44,4 (was 63/36). Democrat favored.
CD21 (maroon): maybe Lamar Smith (R) and/or Charlie Gonzalez (D)
This district mostly stays in Bexar County now, with a small arm into New Braunfels to add necessary population. It adds a lot of minority voters and is considerably bluer by that, the next new minority-majority district. Lamar Smith might be able to hold this district for a while, but Joaquin Castro (hint, hint) could give him a run for his money, even though his legislative district is in my CD20. The district should get even more Latino over time. 38,8 w/10,1 b/47,1 h; Obama/McCain 50,6/49,4 (was 41/58). Tossup.
CD22 (Aquamarine): Pete Olson (R)
The new CD22 stays out of Harris and Galveston County and adds more of Brazoria County. The minority population especially in Fort Bend County should increase over time, even now this district isn’t majority-white anymore (another minority-majority district). 48 w/13 b/22,7 h/14,6 a; Obama McCain 40/60 (was 41/58). Republican favored.
CD23 (Sienna): maybe Quico Cinseco (R) and/or Charlie Gonzalez (D) and/or Silvestre Reyes (D)
I don’t think this is a district Cinseco could win again. It actually loses larger (esp. Republican) parts of Bexar County and stretches more into El Paso County. 24,9 w/3,5 b/69 h; Obama/McCain 56/44 (was 51/48). Democrat favored.
CD24 (YellowGreen): open
Kenny Marchant is put into a district together with Michael Burgess, opening up this majority-Latino district. This is another new minority-majority district. Latinos should be able to elect a candidate of their choice in this district, and I think it is reasonably compact, so is it VRA-mandated? What do you think? State Rep. Rafael Anchia might be an electable candidate here. 28,2 w/12 b/51,8 h/6,6 a; Obama/McCain 58,5/41,5 (was 44/55). Democrat favored.
CD25 (Indigo): maybe Lloyd Doggett (D) and/or Michael McCaul (R) and/or John Carter (R)
This district includes the more minority-heavy areas of Travis County. Its share of minority voters could probably be increased a bit by going into western Bastrop or Caldwell Counties, but I figured to need those precincts to keep the Latino numbers in CD15 higher. Minority candidates should dominate in the Democratic primary here, if not Lloyd Doggett decides to run in this even safer district. Eddie Rodriguez comes to mind, as long as we are safe from Dawnna Dukes. Another new minority-majority district. 39,6 w/11,7/42,6 h; Obama/McCain 68,1/31,9 (was 59/40). Safe Democrat.
CD26 (Gray): Michael Burgess (R) and Kenny Marchant (R)
The district no longer tries to dilute minority voting powers with Denton County conservatives, it adds white, Republican areas in northern Tarrant and Dallas Counties to Denton County, drawing Burgess and Marchant into one district. 68,3 w/7,2 b/15,3 h/7,2 a; Obama/McCain 36,8/63,2 (41/58). Safe Republican.
CD27 (RoyalBlue): Blake Farenthold (R)
This district barely changes, moves out of San Patricio County. It gets a bit bluer even, so I doubt Farenthold could win here. He may live in the San Patricio parts of Corpus Christi, but running in CD 34 against Hinojosa wouldn’t be better for him. State Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (or state Reps. Rene Oliviera, Eddie Lucio III or Jose Manuel Lozano) might be good candidates. 25 w/2,2 b/70,8 h; Obama/McCain 55,2/44,8 (53/46). Democrat favored.
CD28 (Plum): Henry Cuellar (D)
This district moves a bit west to free up space for the new CD34. It gets a bit more Republican, though I do not quite understand why. The new parts in Maverick and Bexar County are also blue, but now it moves into Hays and Comal Counties. Didn’t think those small parts would do that much. Cuellar is moderate enough to be safe. 30,7 w/2,2 b/65,2 h; Obama/McCain 52,4/47,6 (was 56/44). Leans Democratic.
CD29 (MediumOrchid): probably Gene Green (D)
This district gets a bit less Latino in order to free up Hispanic precincts around Aldine for a new majority-Latino district in Harris County. Green probably has to work a bit harder here, as it is less blue as well, but he should be fine. 24 w/10,3 b/60,9 h; Obama/McCain 55/45 (was 62/38). Democrat favored.
CD30 (Light Coral): probably Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
This district consolidates the heavily African-American districts in southern Dallas County and adds minority districts in southern Arlington, freeing up minority precincts in southeast Dallas County for another minority-majority district in CD32. 27,5 w/44,9 b/ 21,3 h; Obama/McCain 71,6/28,4 (was 82/18). Safe Democrat.
CD31 (Khaki): open
This district has nothing to do with the old CD31. It is no longer a central Texas district centered in Williamson County, but now a rural district in northern Texas west of the DFW area with Wichita Falls as its biggest city. Hensarling was born in Stephensville in this district, so maybe he would want to run here. Otherwise there will be another Republican found to run here. It is actually the whitest district I drew. 82 w/3,4 b/12 h; Obama/McCain 24,5/75,5 (was 42/58). Safe Republican.
CD32 (OrangeRed): open
The only thing the old and the new CD32 have in common is the fact that they are exclusively in Dallas County. Except for a few precincts around Richardson they do not overlap. The new CD32 has parts of the old CDs 3, 5 and 30 combined to form another strong minority-majority district that should elect a Latino, possibly an African-American candidate. Maybe Barbara Mallory Caraway would be interested in running here instead of challenging Eddie Bernice Johnson in a primary. 32,5 w/20,9 b/39,9 h/5,2 a; Obama/McCain 60,9/39,1 (was 46/53). Safe Democrat.
CD33 (DeepPink): Kevin Brady (R), possibly Ted Poe (R)
This new district combines white, Republican areas in Northern Harris County with parts of Montgomery County – including Cd8-congressman Kevin Brady’s home. He might run in his old district though, as Ted Poe would probably run here, even though he lives in Humble that is just outside this district in CD7. Maybe John Culberson would run here as well, though he could run in CD7 or CD9 as well. 72 w/6,2 b/15,5 h; Obama/McCain 26,1/73,6. Safe Republican.
CD34 (LimeGreen): Ruben Hinojosa (D)
Hinojosa lives in Mercedes, that lies in this new district. It also includes large parts of the old CD15, so he will probably run here. It is definitely be Latino enough to elect a candidate of their choice. 23 w/1,8 b/74,1 h; Obama/McCain 56,9/43,1. Democrat favored.
CD35 (DarkOrchid): open
This district is a new minority-majority in Tarrant County. Minorities are probably not dominant enough here to elect one of their own yet, but it should be getting there in the next decade. Definitely not VRA-mandated, but given what Republicans have done to minorities in the DFW area before, I think it should be time to give them a break… 40,6 w/19,7 b/34,2 h; Obama/McCain 57,9/42,1. Democrat favored (someone paging Wendy Davis?).
CD36 (Orange): open
This is a new majority-Latino district in Harris County that should be excuse enough to decrease the Latino percentage in CD29. It should give Latino voters a credible opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice (otherwise maybe John Whitmore, as I am not sure we would want Sylvester Turner to run…). 29,8 w/11,4 b/53 h; Obama/McCain 59,6/40,4. Democrat favored.