So, as we probably all know, the House of Representatives has 435 members, a number that's pretty much set in stone. But what would happen to districts if the number of members changed? Usually the change goes more in the direction of increasing the number of districts, such as in the so-called "Wyoming" rule, wherein every Congressional district is as close as possible in population to the population of the smallest state.
But what happens if we increase the ideal population size to 1 million, so that the House is reduced to 309 districts? We'll look at this scenario, employing relatively fair maps-- no gerrymanders here. The VRA is followed and trumps Communities of Interest.
This part will deal with the states of Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut and Florida-- Delaware and Alaska are, of course, single-member states.
Alabama
Alabama is reduced from 7 to 5 members. The map is straightforward: Terri Sewell's 7th (VRA) has to be maintained, so two of the six Republicans have to leave the House.
Blue district (27% Black VAP): This district is Jo Bonner's, expanding into Martha Roby's territory.
Green district (24% Black VAP): 44% of this district belong to Rogers, 31% to Roby. Edge Rogers.
Purple district (9% Black VAP): 40% belong to Spencer, 38% to Aderholt. Bloody primary between two senior members that aren't old enough to voluntarily retire.
Red district (14% Black VAP): Mo Brooks' district, 70-30 over Aderholt.
Yellow district (just under 53% Black VAP): Terri Sewell's district, taking additional territory from Spencer, Roby and Rogers.
Outcome: Roby and either Spencer or Aderholt lose their seats.
Arkansas
Arkansas loses one seat, going to three. The delta and Little Rock are blue enough to sustain one Democratic seat, the other two are Safe R.
Blue district: Safe GOP (68-32 Boozman), probably Griffin's seat.
Green district: Likely Dem (51-49 Lincoln), Ross might run here, but he's not safe in the primary.
Purple district: Womack and Crawford would face off in this safe GOP seat (67-33 Boozman), Womack represents more territory (54-38). Edge Womack.
Outcome: Crawford or maybe Womack lose their seats.
Arizona
Arizona, instead of increasing from 8 to 9 districts, drops to 6. This also results in Grijalva's seat disappearing: No need to split Tucson if not for the VRA.
Outstate:
Green: 52.2% Obama. Giffords would easily hold this, as would most other Dems. Grijalva would lose it, but he probably wouldn't run against Giffords anyway. And if he did, he would lose.
Bluish: 56.1% McCain. Gosar's seat, probably shores him up against a Kirkpatrick comeback.
Purple: 61.2% McCain, I assume Franks would run here. The seat shares 350,000 people with his old seat and Franks doesn't have a better shot. He might get a challenge from someone from another part of the district.
Phoenix MSA:
Yellow: Ed Pastor's seat, 54% Hispanic VAP. Hard to get it higher than that without drawing it out of Phoenix. But it should be good enough, Hispanic citizenship rate here is high. 59.6% Obama.
Blue: 54.2% McCain, Quayle's seat. Probably Safe R, he should be entrenched a bit by 2012.
Red: 58.4% McCain. 73% Flake's seat, 27% Schweikert's, but of course Flake is running for Senate, so I think Schweikert would attempt reelection here.
Outcome: Grijalva loses his seat, Flake wouldn't be replaced.
California
California (of course) sees the biggest drop, going from 53 to 37 districts.
I'll keep the write-ups here short.
Norcal:
Green (Coast): Woolsey beats Thompson in the primary here.
Purple: (Inland): Wally Herger's safe seat.
Light Blue (Sacramento+Yolo): Matsui is safe here.
Red (Eastern Sacramento+Citrus Heights): Lungren has the advantage over McClintock here, Likely R.
Black (Napa-Solano): George Miller is safe here.
Outcome: This region shrinks from 7 to 5, McClintock (R) and Thompson (D) are out.
Bay area:
Blue (San Francisco): Pelosi's turf.
Green (San Mateo): Eshoo would face off against Speier here, with a decisive advantage in territory.
Pink (Berkeley-Oakland): Barbara Lee's seat.
Beige (Fremont, Southern Contra Costa): Stark and Garamendi would face off in the primary here. Garamendi is of course the more junior House member, but prominent in Cali politics and Stark is controversial. Slight edge Garamendi.
Blue (San Jose): Lofgren would beat Honda here.
This area shrinks from 8 to 5, with Speier, Stark or Garamendi and Honda out.
Central Valley/Mid Cali:
Green (Eastern border): Denham's seat.
Brown (Stockton-Modesto): McNerney's seat, 57% Obama, 53% Brown.
Yellow (Central Valley): Hispanic VRA, Cardoza's seat, he might face a primary challenge from Costa, but would probably win. 55.4% Obama, 50.4% Brown. Lean D.
Dark Blue (from Fresno to San Bernadino County): Nunes' seat.
Beige (Santa Cruz to San Luis Obispo): Farr's seat.
Yellow (Kern County): McCarthy's seat.
This area goes from 7 to 6, with Costa probably losing out.
Outer SoCal:
Pink (Santa Barbara to Oxnard): Likely D for Capps vs. Gallegly, Safe D against Generic R.
Light Blue (Mexicali): Hispanic VRA, for a new Democrat (Filner running for mayor).
The other districts are more clear on the LA/OC/SD/SB picture.
LA:
Brown (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): 53% Obama, 44% Brown: McKeon favored over Gallegly in the primary here. Likely R.
"Pale Violet" (Santa Monica): Waxman's turf.
Green: Inglewood-Torrance: Hahn would have a very good chance to beat Maxine Waters in a primary here, the district is 15% Black.
Red (Carson, Compton): Hispanic VRA seat. Currently represented by Waters and Richardson, but no way they hold this.
Black (Downey, Norwalk): Hispanic majority seat, maybe VRA, maybe not (54% VAP)-- Linda Sanchez beats Laura Richardson here.
Purple (San Fernando Valley): Sherman v. Berman, but this time with equal territory. 57% Hispanic VRA, so neither of them might actually win.
Yellow (Glendale, Pasadena): Schiff's seat.
Orange (Los Angeles): Xavier Becerra.
Blue (El Monte, Whittier): Chu v. Roybal-Allard primary? 58% Hispanic VRA, 29% Asian. Of course Roybal-Allard probably has 3% name recognition in her own seat. This seat is 26% Chu's seat, 19% Roybal-Allard's, with lots from other districts thrown in. Wide open.
Light Blue (Pomona): Napolitano.
Likely losses: Gallegly, Waters, Richardson, Sherman, Royball-Allard, Dreier
Possible losses: Berman, Chu
San Bernadino:
Blue (Hispanic VRA): Baca.
Beige(Wraparound, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona): Calvert vs. Dreier vs. Lewis super-primary.
Dark Beige( Riverside): Bono Mack's seat.
Losses: Dreier, Lewis.
Orange County:
Green (Coastal): Rohrabacher.
Orange (Anaheim-Santa Ana, Hispanic VRA): Loretta Sanchez (57% Obama, 52.3% Brown). v. Ed Royce. Likely D
Blue: Irvine, Yorba Linda: Miller v. Campbell primary.
San Diego:
Yellow (Oceanside): Bilbray v. Issa.
Green (Escondido): Hunter
Blue (San Diego): Davis.
Probable losses. Royce, Campbell, Bilbray.
Final Outcome:
Seats lost for Democrats:
Waters, Richardson, Sherman, Roybal-Allard, Costa, Stark, Garamendi, Honda, Thompson.
Seats lost for Republicans: Royce, Campbell, Bilbray, Lewis, Dreier, Gallegly, McClintock.
-9 for Democrats, -6 for Republicans.
Outcome for AK-CA: -10 Democrats, -10 Republicans.
Colorado
Colorado goes from 7 to 5 districts.
Red: Tipton and Gardner would fight an epic primary here, with no clear favorite.
Purple: Lamborn.
Green: Coffman.
Blue: Polis and Perlmutter fight the Democratic primary here. I would give Polis a small edge because he is more liberal in a seat that includes Boulder.
Yellow: DeGette.
Likely Outcome: One Republican (Tipton or Gardner) and one Democrat (Polis or Perlmutter) lose.
Connecticut:
Connecticut goes from 5 to 4 districts.
Blue: Himes. Shays could attempt a comeback here, the seat is about 51-48% Kerry and 59-41% Obama, so about one point more Republican than the old district. Still, Likely D.
Green: DeLauro.
Red: Larson.
Purple: Courtney.
Murphy's seat is dismantled, but since he's running for Senate anyway that doesn't matter.
Florida
Instead of increasing from 25 to 27 districts, the number of FL districts decreases to 19.
Green (Pensacola): Miller
Purple (Tallahassee): Southerland. Only R+1, so winnable against a Republican as conservative as Southerland.
Red (Jacksonville): Crenshaw
Light Blue (South of Jacksonville, Ocala): Mica, edge in primary over Stearns.
Orange (Seminole, Volusia): Adams, R+4
Green (Orlando): Webster, but he's doomed here. Hopefully not against Grayson.
Grey (Spring Hill): Nugent.
Blue (Clearwater): Young-Bilirakis matchup, but Young might just retire.
Green (Tampa-St. Petersburg): Castor
Greyish Blue (Sarasota): Buchanan
Beige (Lakeland): Dennis. Narrowly won by Obama, so just Likely R.
Brown (Cape Coral): Mack
Red (Coast): Posey vs. Rooney primary.
Pink (Naples): Ros-Lehtinen (over Rivera?), Hispanic VRA
Light Blue (Keys), Hispanic VRA: ?? Rivera represents most of this, but he might not survive the primary. D+4.
Blue (West Broward): Diaz-Balart v. Wasserman-Schultz, D+4. Toss-Up. She could also wimp out and run in a district of which she represents significantly less, but I'd expect her as DNC chair to take on the hard challenge. Hispanic VRA.
Yellow (East of Blue), Black VRA: Wilson over Hastings.
Greenish (Coastal): West loses to somebody.
Yellow (Coastal): Deutch.
Final Outcome:
Republicans lose Stearns, Young, Rooney, Rivera to primaries/forced retirements plus West, Webster and maybe Diaz-Balart to Democrats.
Democrats lose Hastings, Brown and maybe Wasserman-Schultz.
Democrats: Roughly +-0. Republicans: roughly -6.
Outcome so far: Democrats -12, Republicans -17.
To be continued...