In my previous diary, I did three Colorado redistricting scenarios and avoided city splitting and split only 2 or 3 counties outside of the metro area. The end result was a 4-1-2 with 5 Obama districts and 3 or 4 Bennet districts. In this map, I decided to split El Paso County, moving all the Democratic areas in southern Colorado Springs into the 3rd district. This allowed me to make a Colorado Springs-Douglas County-Eastern Plains GOP vote sink, which is the only way to make a 60%+ McCain district in Colorado. In addition, I threw Highlands Ranch in with Denver, to eliminate Douglas County's influence in any swing district. I also used the Democrat's Boulder-to-Grand Junction proposal in this map. It ended up creating 5 Bennet districts and 6 Obama districts. Plus, the Boulder-Grand Junction district still would have gone for Kerry in 2004, so it would be safe even for a Boulder liberal that isn't as wealthy as Polis.
Here's the map:
Denver Metro Area:
Colorado Springs Area:
CO-1 (blue): Diana DeGette (D-Denver)
Loses the Democratic cities of Sheridan and Englewood, in addition to super-wealthy Cherry Hills Village, and adds the heavily Republican towns of Columbine and Highlands Ranch. Adding fast-growing Highlands Ranch to this district keeps it from causing any swing districts to trend away from us.
White: 57.3%, Hispanic: 28.0%; VAP: White: 62.4%, Hispanic: 23.6%
Obama: 70.3%, McCain: 29.4% (Current: Obama: 74.2%, McCain: 24.3%)
Bennet: 64.7%, Buck: 31.1%
Safe D
CO-2 (green): Jared Polis (D-Boulder)
I went with the Democratic proposal of Denver-to-Grand Junction, but in my version I actually help out the 3rd, unlike the real proposal which makes no sense and adds plains counties to the 3rd. I love living in a state with so many white liberals that it can have a district that is over 80% white and 0.6% black and still be solidly Democratic. Although Polis has underperformed Udall outside of Boulder in the current 2nd, his billions will ensure that this remains in our column, even with a bunch of pissed off Western Slope conservatives opposing him. For this district, I chose to calculate Kerry/Bush numbers, rather than Salazar/Coors since Polis is super-liberal, so Kerry numbers are a better indicator of what Polis would get in a bad Democratic year.
White: 80.9%, Hispanic: 14.1%; VAP: White: 83.7%, Hispanic: 11.6%
Obama: 56.9%, McCain: 41.3% (Current: Obama: 64.2%, McCain: 34.1%)
Bennet: 51.3%, Buck: 43.0%
Kerry: 51.7%, Bush: 46.9%
Likely D
CO-3 (purple): Scott Tipton (R-Cortez)
After losing the Republican stronghold of Mesa County, as well as several low-population Republican counties, it adds Lake, Chaffee, Park, Fremont, and Teller Counties, as well as the liberal portions of El Paso County. I added all the white liberals in Manitou Springs and the Colorado College area in Colorado Springs, as well as the minority-heavy portions of southern Colorado Springs. In addition, I added Ft. Carson and the Air Force Academy since they contain a total of 22,000 people, but combine for only about 300 votes, since most Academy cadets and members of the military vote in their home residence. This keeps the 3rd from having to add more conservative areas to meet population equality. Anyway, Tipton's screwed here. In addition, the loss of Grand Junction will prevent it from trending Republican, which is what would have happened in my previous map.
White: 66.9%, Hispanic: 24.8%; VAP: White: 70.7%, Hispanic: 21.6%
Obama: 53.8%, McCain: 44.5% (Current: McCain: 50.4%, Obama: 47.9%)
Bennet: 48.0%, Buck: 46.8% (Current: Buck: 50.0%, Bennet: 43.8%)
Salazar: 52.8%, Coors: 44.8%
Likely D vs Tipton, Lean D otherwise
CO-4 (red): Cory Gardner (R-Yuma)
It adds Broomfield and the remainder of Weld County, while losing most of the Eastern plains. Gardner is actually drawn into the GOP vote sink, but would probably run here, as he would likely lose a primary to the ultra-conservative Doug Lamborn. That Salazar and Bennet both lost this is kind of a red flag, but Buck and Coors only won pluralities, rather than majorities, Obama won it in 2008, and it is still several points friendlier than the current version and we have a strong candidate in State Senate President Brandon Shaffer of Longmont running in 2012. Plus, growth in Fort Collins and Longmont, as well as Hispanics in Greeley, should make it more Democratic by the end of the decade. Beating Gardner will be tough, but it is definitely doable.
White: 76.1%, Hispanic: 18.7%; VAP: White: 79.8%, Hispanic: 15.5%
Obama: 50.8%, McCain: 47.6% (Current: McCain: 49.5%, Obama: 48.7%)
Buck: 49.3%, Bennet: 45.2%
Coors: 49.5%, Salazar: 48.4%
Lean R for Gardner, Tossup otherwise
CO-5 (yellow): Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs)
After losing the liberal parts of Colorado Springs, it takes all of Douglas County except for Highlands Ranch, as well as almost all of the eastern plains, creating a huge GOP vote sink. This probably went upwards of 70% for Bush in 2004.
White: 78.7%, Hispanic: 12.2%; VAP: White: 81.5%, Hispanic: 10.3%
McCain: 62.7%, Obama: 36.1% (Current: McCain: 58.6%, Obama: 39.9%)
Buck: 64.4%, Bennet: 30.5%
Safe R
CO-6 (teal): Mike Coffman (R-Aurora/Greenwood Village)
It loses almost all of Douglas County, keeping only a few precincts to connect Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties. It adds the rest of Aurora from the 7th, while losing Elbert and most of Douglas County to the 5th. It also sheds Columbine, most of Highlands Ranch, and a few precincts in Littleton to the 1st. It ends up as a district that mirrors the state as a whole, since whatever a candidate receives in Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties is usually within two percentage points of what they get statewide. For example, Bennet got pluralities of 48% in Jefferson County and 49% in Arapahoe County and won the state with 48%, Obama got 54% in Jefferson and 56% in Arapahoe and won the state with 54%, and in 2004, Bush got 52% in Jefferson and 51% in Arapahoe and won the state with 52%. In the same election, Democrat Ken Salazar won 51% in Jefferson and 52% in Arapahoe and won the Senate seat with 51%. Just based on the state's leftward trend, I would rate this as lean D in an open seat situation. Plus, without Highlands Ranch, it will trend our way as Hispanic growth in Aurora continues.
White: 66.2%, Hispanic: 17.7%; VAP: White: 70.5%, Hispanic: 14.7%
Obama: 53.6%, McCain: 45.1% (Current: McCain: 52.5%, Obama: 46.2%)
Bennet: 48.0%, Buck: 46.8%
Salazar: 51.5%, Coors: 47.8%
Tossup/Tilt R for Coffman, Lean D otherwise
CO-7 (gray): Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden)
It loses the earmuff into Aurora and adds more of Adams County from the 2nd. Otherwise, it is pretty similar to the current version. Although it probably wouldn't be a Kerry district anymore (the old one went 51-48 for Kerry), demographic changes render those numbers irrelevant.
White: 63.9%, Hispanic: 29.1%; VAP: White: 68.9%, Hispanic: 24.6%
Obama: 56.1%, McCain: 42.0% (Current: Obama: 58.6%, McCain: 39.5%)
Bennet: 50.0%, Buck: 42.7%
Salazar: 55.5%, Coors: 42.1%
Safe/Likely D for Perlmutter, Lean D otherwise