A few of you may remember way back when on Swing State Project that I had attempted to divide New York and California into multiple states and make them all as Democratic as possible. At the time, I was definitely happier with my California map (that basically screwed Republicans out of everything) than my New York map (although to be fair, what I had to do to Los Angeles to get there was pretty damn shameful); but then again, it's relatively easy to divide a Democratic state into a lot of Democratic states, but how does one maximize Democrats by dividing a Republican state like Texas, and is it even possible to "neutralize" Republican Texas with some Democratic states, keeping population roughly equal (and please note, for this exercise, I did want to keep population equality, for part 2, population equality was nonexistent)
The short answer is "yes", it's definitely possible, for the long answer... well follow me below the fold:
So before getting to the carnage, I really had two ground-rules for this:
1. Ideal population for 8 states is 3,143,194, for my purposes, all states must be within 100,000 of that ideal (basically +/-3.18% deviation)
2. Continuity matters, everything has to touch (of course, there are states that don't respect this cough*Michigan*cough, but for my purposes, I did want to respect this).
Everything else though, was fair game (that includes, city/county splitting, ugly lines, and not really respecting communities of interest, all of these things must be thrown out the window in order to maximize Democratic prospects). So, with all that out of the way, let's get started!
State 1 Austin-Brownsville (Blue)
Population: 3,130,681 (-12,513)
Demographics (VAP): 33.5%(37.9%) White; 6.2%(6.3%) Black; 55.7%(51.2%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 59.8%, McCain 40.2%; Dems 55.2%, Reps 44.8%
Population centers: Austin, Brownsville, San Antonio, Corpus Christie
Notes: The first state of Texas should give you a good idea of the types of things I had to do with Texas in order to get half of the states Democratic. It goes from the core of Austin to pick up the Democratic parts of San Antonio, then snakes down to the border to pick up Brownsville (and, it's not easy to tell, I snake through to pick up Democratic parts of Corpus Christie and the Democratic parts of Nueces County). Honestly, it's pretty straight forward, despite the fact that it's pretty ugly. Incidentally, get used to the Democratic states having only a ten point margin, with the population requirements, it's just not possible to strengthen all of these states.
State 2: Borderland + Suburbs (Green)
Population: 3,044,671 (-97,949)
Demographics (VAP): 21.8%(24.8%) White; 2.3%(2.4%) Black; 73.2%(70.1%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 58.3% McCain 41.7%; Dems 54.6% Reps 45.4%
Population centers: El Paso, Travis County, Laredo, McAllen
Notes: At first, I was hoping to keep this solely along the border, but I was having major problems with the heavily Republican parts of Bexar and Travis counties (plus, the Austin suburbs where Obama's support was pretty decent but where Democratic support was... well not so great (Ive seen a few precincts where Obama won by 15 points or more, but where Democrats lost by at least 3 or 4 points). Without the outlying parts of Bexar and Travis, this state would have easily been over 60% Obama and 13-14 points Democratic.
State 3: Houston Proper
Population: 3,138,311 (-4,883)
Demographics (VAP): 25.9%(28.9%) White; 20.4%(21.5%) Black; 46%(41.4%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 60.1% McCain 39.9%; Dems 56.7% Reps 43.3%
Population Center: Houston
Notes: Usually this doesn't matter, but for here, this map is a little out of date, I actually went in and traded some more Republican parts of Houston for the absurdly Democratic precincts in Sugar Land and Missouri City (basically right near the southwest border of Harris County, where there are plenty of 90-10, 80-20 and 70-30 Dem precincts). Doing this makes this state both Obama's best Texas state and the most Democratic.
State 4: Houston suburbs/East Texas (Red)
Population: 3,207,602 (+64,408)
Demographics (VAP): 62.5%(57.6%) White; 13.3%(12.9%) Black; 21.1%(18.4%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 34% McCain 66%; Dems 33.3%, Reps 66.7%
Population Centers: Harris County, Beaumont, Port Arthur
Notes: Well, this is what is required to make the other states Democratic, and frankly, this isn't the most Republican of the new states (actually, it's the second more Democratic of the four Republican states). It takes up the super-Republican Houston suburbs and absorbs the area at the southern most border between Louisiana and Texas.
State 5: Texas Panhandle (Gold)
Population: 3,237,328 (+94,134)
Demographics (VAP): 62.5%(67%) White; 6.9%(6.7%) Black; 27.3%(23.4%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 27.6% McCain 72.4%; Dems 29.6% Reps 70.4%
Population Centers: Waco, Lubbock, Amarillo
Notes: Ever wonder what would happen if the panhandle of Texas was a state unto itself? Well, wonder no more, and just so we're clear, this is not only the most Republican state of the new Texas states, it would also have been the most Republican state in the entire country in 2008 (take that, Oklahoma!) Interestingly, Democrats did better than Obama did, and I'd actually guess that even John Kerry, competing against favorite son George Bush, did better than Obama. I guess the only real question you'd have to ask is "What kind of lunatics would this state produce?"
State 7: Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs (Grey)
Population: 3,148,336 (+5,142)
Demographics (VAP): 66.7%(70%) White; 8%(7.7%) Black; 16.1%(13.8%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 35% McCain 65%; Dems 30.4% Reps 69.6%
Population Centers: Tarrance County, Dallas County
Notes: So this is something of a contradiction, as far as the Republican states go, this is Obama's best one, yet it's also the second most Republican state. Seems odd, until you realize that Obama really out-performed Democrats in the Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs, it wasn't uncommon to see areas that Obama won 60-40, yet Democrats lost, in fact, if it weren't for the inclusion of areas near the Oklahoma border to the Louisiana border, you might well have seen a state that Obama had broken 40% in yet Democrats stayed around 30%. This is also the whitest of the Republican states, having the only state that has a total Hispanic population below 20%.
State 8: The Rest of Texas (Slate Blue)
Population: 3,192,036 (+48,842)
Demographics (VAP): 61.4%(65.4%) White; 11%(10.9%) Black; 24.7%(21.2%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 32.7% McCain 67.3%; Dems 35.7%, Reps 64.3%
Population Centers: None
Notes: I imagine that some Texas swingnuts/Kossacks aren't going to be particularly happy with my classification, but really, there isn't much else to say about it, there isn't any real unifying part of the area, it's a bunch of small towns and rural areas (with the inclusion of some suburbs). Really, it's what I was left over with after I had created the other logical areas.
State 6: Dallas/Fort Worth (Teal)
Population: 3,043,399 (-99,795)
Demographics (VAP): 31.9%(37.3%) White; 22.9%(22.6%) Black; 39.1%(34%) Latino
Partisanship: Obama 59.8% McCain 40.2%; Dems 54.8% Reps 45.2%
Population Centers: Dallas, Fort Worth
Notes: So yeah, for Dallas and Fort Worth it's really a matter of getting to the necessary population without diluting Democratic strength, and wow was that harder than I thought! Getting the Obama numbers up isn't really a problem, it's keeping the Democratic numbers up, as I had mentioned with the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs, you had a real issues where Obama did a lot better than other Democrats do here, hence you see certain precincts excluded even though Obama won them running away because Democrats actually lost them. It's a real balancing act, and in the end, I think I turned the area into a state that Democrats should be reasonably secure in (except in a really bad year).