Ex-Sen. George LeMieux (R)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/16-19, Florida voters,
3/24-27 in parens,
Dec. 2010 in brackets):
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (50) [44]
Mike Haridopolos (R): 35 (34) [32]
Undecided: 18 (17) [24]
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (48) [46]
Adam Hasner (R): 35 (32) [30]
Undecided: 19 (20) [25]
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 46 (48) [47]
George LeMieux (R): 35 (33) [36]
Undecided: 19 (19) [17]
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Tom is still pretty sanguine about Nelson's chances (as am I), pointing out that his oddly weak approval ratings are really a rope-a-dope, since Democrats are much more willing to say they'll vote for their sitting senator than they are to say they approve of the job he's doing. But let's look at the bright-ish side for the GOP this time:
There are some positive points the Republicans can take out of these poll numbers. Nelson led LeMieux by 15 and Hasner and Haridopolos by 16 when we last looked at Florida in March, so there's been a 4 point across the board reduction in Nelson's lead since then. And the GOP candidates certainly have plenty of room to grow, given that they're pretty much completely unknown at this point. 34% have an opinion about LeMieux and that goes down to 28% for Haridopolos and 22% for Hasner. They're likely to chop a few points off Nelson's lead as they become better known.
As you can see by going back to the December trendlines, both Hasner and Haridopolis have been on a slight upward trend against Nelson, even though their name rec has barely budged. I'm not sure what LeMieux's deal is, but the numbers are all so close I don't think it matters much. This trend will continue, but the problem for the GOP is that the undecideds are pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, which means that no matter how well they do with their own party, they'll have to start peeling off a lot more independents than they currently are. (Unless they're hoping that the Democratic fence-sitters are wobbly Dixiecrats who could tilt in their direction... but I doubt that's the case.) I think that's going to be a tall task.