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Ex-Sen. George LeMieux (R)
Ex-Sen. George LeMieux (R)
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/16-19, Florida voters, 3/24-27 in parens, Dec. 2010 in brackets):
Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (50) [44]
Mike Haridopolos (R): 35 (34) [32]
Undecided: 18 (17) [24]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 47 (48) [46]
Adam Hasner (R): 35 (32) [30]
Undecided: 19 (20) [25]

Bill Nelson (D-inc): 46 (48) [47]
George LeMieux (R): 35 (33) [36]
Undecided: 19 (19) [17]
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Tom is still pretty sanguine about Nelson's chances (as am I), pointing out that his oddly weak approval ratings are really a rope-a-dope, since Democrats are much more willing to say they'll vote for their sitting senator than they are to say they approve of the job he's doing. But let's look at the bright-ish side for the GOP this time:

There are some positive points the Republicans can take out of these poll numbers. Nelson led LeMieux by 15 and Hasner and Haridopolos by 16 when we last looked at Florida in March, so there's been a 4 point across the board reduction in Nelson's lead since then. And the GOP candidates certainly have plenty of room to grow, given that they're pretty much completely unknown at this point. 34% have an opinion about LeMieux and that goes down to 28% for Haridopolos and 22% for Hasner. They're likely to chop a few points off Nelson's lead as they become better known.

As you can see by going back to the December trendlines, both Hasner and Haridopolis have been on a slight upward trend against Nelson, even though their name rec has barely budged. I'm not sure what LeMieux's deal is, but the numbers are all so close I don't think it matters much. This trend will continue, but the problem for the GOP is that the undecideds are pretty evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, which means that no matter how well they do with their own party, they'll have to start peeling off a lot more independents than they currently are. (Unless they're hoping that the Democratic fence-sitters are wobbly Dixiecrats who could tilt in their direction... but I doubt that's the case.) I think that's going to be a tall task.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:09 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Hasner is the only one who's narrowed since (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Mariken

    December.  Haridopolos is at the same -12 and LeMieux is at the same -11.

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:40:07 AM PDT

  •  i think lemieux will be nominated (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    if it comes down to money and electability and considering the primary is in aug of 2012 it very well might.  Lemiuex's only weaknesses are that he's milquetoast and crist.   if his opponents were stronger he could lose, but now, if he keeps getting endorsements from other senators, starts raking in money and lets people forget about Charlie Crist, he could be the 99 pound weakling in a field of 98 pound weaklings.

    •  Those are some pretty serious liabilities! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      And while Haridopolos has huge flaws and Hasner is wildly conservative, I don't think they are 98-lb weaklings.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:00:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  you could be correct (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        but even  in the base, people's memories are fleeting.  I suspect by this time next year the type of voters who vote in primaries but don't pay the most attention will have forgotten about crist, or at least lemiuex's (am i spelling that right) connection.  Further, considering the lack of any tea party activity at the moment, it seems that they've lost their 2010 mojo.  It's possible that this is only a lull, similar to the democratic lull in 2007 (the house special elections that democrats not only lost, but failed to even improve upon their previous margins).  Still, it seems like the tea party is running out of steam, (pun unintended) so a more moderate candidate might be able to win the nomination.  of course there's also the chaos inherent in a race with three strong, credible candidates.  I could be wrong of course, but if lemiuex won the nomination, I wouldn't be surprised.  

    •  Crist would be favored to crush (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Scott in a match up.  I think Scott has immediately redeemed Crist in the eyes of many.  He's not a huge liability any more.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:43:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd say his 9/25 favorables are a "weakness"! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      LOL, the dude is a corpse.

      by tommypaine on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:07:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  He hasn't got this locked up just yet, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    but he gets no higher than 79 percent of Democrats against any one of these guys, I think his numbers are understated. I just don't see him losing any more than 10 percent of Democrats short of some huge implosion. If he does that and gets no less than 45 percent of Independents, which is about two points above where is now, he should win pretty easily.

  •  still worried (0+ / 0-)

    Bill Nelson is a team player. But I still fret over the genuine sense that he is a building and forgettable. He will be bolstered by Obama's reelect, but he like most backbenchers that are up for reelection this year are unable to really show off accomplishments.

    Nelson's achievements are laudable but he is no leader and because of this the GOP will tag him as a mere draft horse in the Obama Chariot of Socialism. I wish Nelson would be more in the news for what he does, not what he does along with the leadership.

    All money spent on Nelson will be worth it as Nelson's seat is not cheap and sparing any widespread liberal outbreaks in FL it will be one for the Senate Democrats Trophy case.

  •  Bill Nelson is finally acting like a good Democrat (0+ / 0-)

    now that he has challengers for his seat. I was so pissed off at him a few of years ago over his votes for Roberts and Alito, and other Bush hacks, that I didn't vote for him in that election.

    Every letter I wrote to him, asking him to stand with "we the people", went unanswered. His votes on Bush era crap were more R than D.

    Now that he's being an active Democrat, he writes me all the time asking that I stand with him against Rick Scott's new voting rules.

    I do. Hurray.

  •  Anyone in FL who votes GOP/TP Deserves What (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    they get.

    They are all miserable after the 2010 election as are people in other states who either were sleeping or pulled the GOP/TP lever.

    So beware FL and every state of the union--learn your lesson or don't be heard to complain.

  •  Nelson is one of my Senators. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Mariken

    He sent me a lovely message for the 4th of July that closed with a quote from Ronald (expletive) Reagan.

    Tepid Democrat and all, but better than LeMieux and far better than teapartyuhaddist Rubio.

    But seriously, sending messages to his base quoting the republican president who set America on the path to the demise of the middle class?


    'Destroying America, One middle class family and one civil liberty at a time: Today's GOP'

    by emsprater on Mon Jul 04, 2011 at 07:29:13 PM PDT

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