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In May, Romney defended the Mass.
health care reform plan and
its individual mandate
 
Anderson Robbins Research (D) & Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News (6/26-28/11, Republican primary voters, 6/5-7/11 in parens):
Mitt Romney (R): 18 (23)
Rick Perry (R): 13 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R): 11 (4)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 10 (13)
Sarah Palin (R): 8 (12)
Ron Paul (R): 7 (5)
Herman Cain (R): 5 (4)
Tim Pawlenty (R): 3 (5)
Newt Gingrich (R): 3 (7)
Jon Huntsman (R): 3 (2)
(MoE: ±5.5%)

National primary preference polls are sort of meaningless in that there isn't an actual national primary, but Romney's failure to break away from the pack is notable, especially considering the turbulence in the field. Romney's down by 5 points from earlier in the month.

Overall, the Romney trendlines suggest that at least thus far, there's been a ceiling to Mitt Romney's support. Even though he's the most well-known candidate, he just can't build a significant lead. Check out his numbers from polls conducted by the same firm for Fox:

June 26-28, 2011: 18
June 5-7, 2011: 23
April 25-27, 2011: 19
April 3-5, 2011: 14
July 21-22, 2009: 22
May 12-13, 2009: 18

On paper, Romney's definitely the front-runner, but he hasn't gotten a boost from the withdrawal of either Trump or Huckabee from the field. This is the first time that Fox has polled Perry's name and he's opening strong. Bachmann also does well, up from 4% in the previous poll.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:09 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  T-Paw, Gingrich, and Huntsman (11+ / 0-)

    bringing up the rear!

    23, male, Democrat, NY-05 (childhood), NY-21 (college years), NY-09 (raised and currently)

    by Nickers on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:24:50 PM PDT

  •  And then there was Pawlenty. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, Nickers
  •  Bachmann or Perry will win the nomination (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BarackStarObama, Fury

    Assuming that Perry gets in, if he doesn't, much his potential support will go to Bachmann. Palin probably won't run and her support has to go somewhere. Anyone supporting her probably doesn't like Romney.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:40:39 PM PDT

    •  I think the only support (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      Romney will get is from Huntsmen, Pawlenty, and Guiliani's support. That's not enough and that's why I think he looses.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:18:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Perry has zero chance (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DEMonrat ankle biter, Fury

      It's too late for a newbie to get in.  Perry has his own bundle of liabilities, and he's waiting until August to decide which itself is monumentally stupid and demonstrates poor political skill since getting in even right now makes anyone a longshot.  If Perry jumped in a month ago, he'd be in the game for real, but the way he's playing it, Bachmann will have an entrenched base before Perry decides.

      All Perry can realistically do is play spoiler to Bachmann and hand the nomination to Romney.

      Romney, as strange as it is, is very much the frontrunner, albeit yes a weak one.  But everyone else is just that much weaker, and even Bachmann needs to draw an inside straight to win the nomination.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:24:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Every Republican candidate has huge (5+ / 0-)

        liabilities.

        "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:28:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sure, but the others are actual candidates (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Fury

          Perry is not.  And it is not the case that you can become one just anytime and have a chance.  It's simply too late, and Perry for his part is disfavored by enough factions of the GOP that he's not a guy who can swoop in late and just soak up pluralities of caucus/primary voters in early states.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:33:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Why? (4+ / 0-)

            There's plenty of big oil money that is sitting on the fence. Social conservatives are looking for a champion. The establishment is not so excited about Romney and will jump ship just as soon as Perry wins a single state. California GOP money is just sitting there having no real state party to support.

            Furthermore, Iowa Republicans want a real contest and all the big names, other than Bachmann and Pawlenty are going elsewhere. They'll be itching to get Perry into the fight and give that race some real buzz.

            And you can rest assured that South Carolina is looking. There is no big time Southern Conservative in this race.

          •  It is late in the game, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            northsylvania

            but as this poll shows, the rest of the field is horribly weak.  He can still pull it off, only because the alternatives are so lame.

            It's true--after the rapture, we get all their shit. Unfortunately, they all shop at WalMart.

            by techiechick on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 02:04:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  disagree (8+ / 0-)

        Perry can still win the nomination if (1) he starts taking it seriously now and putting an organization in place and (2) Bachmann implodes. After New Hampshire or at the latest South Carolina the race will be down to Romney v. not-Romney with Paul still pulling the same 5-10% everywhere. Perry still probably has a better chance to be the not-Romney than anyone but Bachmann even if he runs a half-ass campaign, but he'll need to go full-ass to have any chance to actually beat Romney out.  

        SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 02:58:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If your chances depend on Bachmann(!) imploding... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico

          ...you don't really have a chance.

          Think about that:  you need Bachmann of all people to implode to have a chance?

          Wouldn't put money on a candidate becoming the nominee who depends on such a thing.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:28:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  While Bachmann is showing surprising discipline (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, BeloitDem, MichaelNY, Fury, The Nose

            she has fallen into serious gaffes before.

            While I don't think Perry would necessarily benefit, I think there's a reasonable chance of Bachmann imploding.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:03:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's not the issue (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              This issue is not whether Bachmann might implode.

              My point is that if you're not strong enough to supplant her on the strength of your own personal appeal and  political abilities, without her imploding, then you're not strong enough to jump in late, ramp up quickly, and win the nomination.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 03:48:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  ... (0+ / 0-)

                Obviously Perry is strong enough to supplant her on his own personal appeal as he gets more support than her even after all of her visibility and free media!

                21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 03:51:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Open question for Perry (0+ / 0-)

                Can he take the endorsements -- and the party machinery (if any) controlled by

                Vander Platts in IA
                LaMongtaine in NH
                Haley in SC
                Sandorval in NV

                Have any of these people endorsed any Presidential candidate? (If so, Perry's window is closing or has already closed.)

                Perhaps I have the wrong people w/r/t party machinery -- in some cases, it's Tea Party support -- but the point is still the same.

                If Perry can start a campaign with his profile -- and the endorsements of these four, he can wait a bit.

                That's something of the profile that was available to HHH in '76 and Mario Cuomo in '92 -- a campaign organization waiting and ready to go for them.

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 06:54:40 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Bachmann borders on volatile... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Fury, The Nose

            That's probably one of the reasons there's been such high turnover on her staff. The chances of her imploding are pretty significant.

            •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Anne Elk

              She's survived a few close elections, including in a Democratic wave, against very aggressive DFLers explicitly by not playing into the "crazy lady" stereotype. I mean, she shot off her mouth immediately after winning reelection, of course, but she ran a reasonably disciplined campaign and stayed on-message despite being goaded into saying something outlandish that could have given the upper hand to Tarryl Clark.

              Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 09:22:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I realize on 2nd read my comment confused (0+ / 0-)

              I wasn't suggesting you can't count on Bachmann imploding.

              I'm saying if you're so weak that you can't win the nomination without that happening, then you're too weak to jump in late and win the nomination under any circumstances.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 03:50:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  ... (4+ / 0-)

                But Perry isn't that weak. He could very well win without having Bachmann explode at all. Perry is within margin of error of Romney in this poll... Do we really think that Romney is going to be the nominee? No, and neither do you I don't think if I've read your comments over the last month correctly.

                The question is:  If not him then who?

                Huntsman: Too moderate.
                Pawlenty: Too boring.
                Gingrich: Too... obnoxious and holier-than-thou.
                Cain: Too inexperienced.
                Palin: Probably not running.
                Bachmann: Too crazy.
                Paul and Johnson: Too libertarian.
                Santorum: Too low profile.
                McCotter: Too establishmentarian, low profile, boring, and a bunch of other stuff.
                Karger: Gay.
                Assorted Perennial Candidates like Martin and Sharkey: Enough said.
                McMillan: The chances are Too. Damn. Low.
                Others: Nope...

                Perry: Perfect blend of establishment, TEA Party, religious conservative, and fiscal conservative with just enough populist flare to ignite the base and just enough smarts to not make a fool of himself like Palin or Bachmann.

                21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 04:03:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Isn't he a bit too Bush-like? (0+ / 0-)

                  Maybe that's not a problem with the primaries though?

                •  I don't know if you'll be proven right (0+ / 0-)

                  but you make a good argument.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 04:02:52 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  That poll isn't worth anything (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  National polls, especially this early, aren't worth anything except to show name rec and to some extent enthusiasm.

                  You have to win an early state, almost certainly Iowa or New Hampshire for starters, to have any chance to win the nomination.  Perry is a lot tougher shape in all the early states than this poll shows because he's not been running when others have for a long time, and he's indicating he won't even start until mid-August at the earliest.

                  Regarding "if not Perry than who," it doesn't have to be anyone but Romney.  He's weak, the right hates him and doesn't trust him one bit, he's objectively a weaker potential nominee than McCain ever was.  But that doesn't mean he'll be beat.

                  Perry isn't who the establishment wants.  They seem him as weak or otherwise actively dislike him, and all those bundlers and their rich friends who've been holding back aren't going to jump at Perry.  He can still raise some money, but he's not an establishmentarian darling the way Barbour and Daniels and Thune were.  They're going to circulate through the media their concerns with Perry, which will badly undermine him.  And on the grassroots level Iowans are already strongly in Bachmann's camp, if she wins there as she's on track to do that squeezes out Perry further since he can't win New Hampshire or Nevada.  Then his back is to the wall in South Carolina as a must-win, which is not where you want to be since even if you do win there, you're still only barely breathing.

                  All this would've been a problem for him had he jumped in 2 months ago, but it's far harder starting so late.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 07:18:31 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  She's not going anywhere (0+ / 0-)

            before New Hampshire, more likely Super Tuesday. Why are we assuming that she and Romney wouldn't hesitate to gang up on Perry (in their mutual interest)?

          •  Right you are (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Bachmann basically can't implode. At this stage of her career, she simply cannot do or say anything that could collapse her support. Anyone who supports her now is unlikely to be bothered by anything she is likely to say. In fact, her sheer nuttiness is a plus. She's the un-Romney. If she can stay the course, she will benefit from the dropping out of the other kooks.  

        •  Perry will lap Bachmann... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, itskevin, Leap Year, The Nose

          ...and if she gets in the way, then he'll steamroll her.  That's what he does and he does it exceedingly well.  He's been down by a lot more before, and yet he manages to crush his competition come game time.

          I don't care how late it is, Perry can win and surprise everyone.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 08:06:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Completely Disagree (10+ / 0-)

        Perry may have liabilities, but his liabilities are general election only. Most of them, actually, should make him more compelling to the GOP primary electorate.

        Secondly, Perry has amazing political skills. There's a reason that he's been around for ten years. There is speculation that he's going to announce at his national prayer thing - a gimmick that would instantly place him at the front of the pack in socially conservative Iowa. Do you recall the last time a candidate announced at a strategic (and remembered) location? Reagan... in that small town in Mississippi. The visuals of it were impeccable for the GOP primary electorate.

        If I were Perry's political advisor, I'd be telling him to wait just a bit longer. Any tremendously well-known figure (the longest serving governor in the nation of a state with great economic fundamentals) is going to get a hell of alot of free press the moment that they announce because the current field is so weak. The fact that he's charismatic only adds to that. I can just see him now on the talk show circuit doing his tremendously effective personal retail politicking.

        21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 03:12:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your notion of Iowa is way off (6+ / 0-)

          No Perry is not going to shoot to the top in Iowa after some prayer thing, or anything else.

          I'm from Iowa, you win the caucuses with strong organization and organic support built up over many months.  And you can't win there by jumping in very late, long after many others have been playing hard for a long time.

          Perry is a nobody in Iowa, and Bachmann is already cornering the fundie market there.

          After Iowa, Perry is a non-starter in NH.  He can't play in NV, either.  He's a player in SC, but by then he's in do-or-die mode.  Then he still must win Florida or, again, he's toast.

          All this presumes he'll catch fire with a big segment at all.  That's very questionable.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 07:27:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  He's got a chance (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, drobertson

        The support for the field is so fractured right now that he could step in and be a competitor. He's a favor of arch-conservatives and that's about all that is necessary to get the nomination.

        25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 04:12:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

        He's being waaaaaaay too coy (cute) about it.

  •  I think if Perry runs, he wins (7+ / 0-)

    He is more socially conservative than Romney, and given that Texas is the model for conservative economic policy, he will be perceived as better on the economic policies too. I wouldnt underestimate Romney but he is the fronrunner by default right now, mostly because Huckabee and Daniels didnt get in.

  •  This kinda cofirms my expectations (7+ / 0-)

    Mitt Romney is the front runner, but very weak. The main thing he has going for him is his infrastructure and money. He doesn't really excite anyone but he does have a solid resume.

    If Perry runs (really only a 50/50 at best) he would probably be Romney's primary opponent. Perry could crash like Fred Thompson, but the GOP is much less satisfied with the current field than in 2008 and Perry has some real accomplishments, especially the relatively decent economic situation in Texas compared to the rest of the country.

    If Perry doesn't run then Bachmann will probely be the anti-Romney. She has the potienal for a massive win in the Iowa caucus which could easily propel her to the anti-Romney spot. She also done a exceptional job as portraying herself as a serious candidate since she entered the race but her many past comments could potential cripple her when she is 1v1 vs. Romney.

    I can't see Giulani nor Palin running (former's time has past while the latter would have to content with Bachmann and her disciplined image. And Palin is abhored by the GOP elites and hasn't done any real meet and greets in early states.

    Cain really hurt himself with his anti-Mulsim comments in the debate. I think he is going to bleed all his support to Bachmann. Tim Pawlenty proved himself to be a pansey when he refused to attack Romney doing the debate. Santorum is the least appealing of the social conservative crowd. Gringrich's staff debacle has practically finished off his campaign.

    Huntsman is too moderate (or more accurately reasonable conservative) in a GOP primary electorate that despises Obama and really wants him out. Romney basically ties Obama in national polls and does the best in state polls while bashing Obama so no point in GOP voters choosing someone who claims the electorally argument by being nice. Only if polls show Huntsman greatly outperforming Romney  in the general election could I see GOP voters considering him, but I don't believe his name recognition will go high enough for him to try to prove that.

    •  The thing about Romney (8+ / 0-)

      is that he doesn't have ANY of the standard Republican bona fides. McCain was an apostate in some ways, but he was down-the-line, hardcore conservative on military and foreign policy. Primary voters could trust he was a true believer, at least on that one thing.

      What's truly Republican/conservative about Romney? Most people would probably suggest it has something to do with economics and free markets. But even there his profile is riddled with holes, including his outspoken challenge to the Bush tax cuts back in the early Aughts.

      If I were a Republican, I can't think of anything that would reassure me that Romney was definitely on my team - not on economics, not on health care, and certainly not on social policy.

      He's a paper tiger in this race.

  •  Starting to doubt (3+ / 0-)

    The Last Word's Lawrence O'Donnell on his Pawlenty thesis.

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 01:06:50 PM PDT

  •  Perry-Bachmann! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, supercereal, Fury

    We'll win 40 or 45 states.  Heck, we might win Texas!

    Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

    by plf515 on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 05:13:29 PM PDT

    •  I dunno about that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Fury, The Nose, Leap Year

      I am persuaded by the comments that Perry may be a real threat.

      However, Obama may have a secret weapon: Congress. This is could be an election in which Obama runs specifically against Congress and only generally against the nominee, painting him/her as a tool of a radical right-wing Congress that is bent on wrecking the country. Lots of things are in the works that may complicate the GOP race, I think.

  •  I feel a lot more comfortable... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury

    Feeling, as I do, that the nominee will likely be Gov. Perry (if he runs) or Rep. Bachmann.

    Just about everything the general electorate thinks they like about Romney, Republican primary voters hate.

    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 09:24:57 PM PDT

  •  More evidence of Romney winning easily (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury

    Perry added amounts to nothing.  

    The same story as before, but maybe even more favorable to Romney.  He wins two of the first four contests, bachman and Perry maybe splitting the other two.  Romney wins the lions share of the stes and delegates on Super Tuesday... all resistance after that is futile.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

    by tommypaine on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:04:36 PM PDT

  •  Perry is 5 points back, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, northsylvania, Inoljt, MichaelNY

    and he hasn't opened a single campaign office, set up a PAC, built an early state organization, or otherwise dont a goddamn thing other than say he's interested.

    I don't what that means for Perry, but it definitely lends a lot of credence to the idea that Romney simply cannot close the deal with Republicans.

    •  sad that people would vote for perry at all (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Fury, northsylvania, MichaelNY

      after looking at what he has done to Texas.  Financial disaster per perry?  Check.  Cronyism kickbacks?  Check.  Forced unnecessary health care?  Check.  Selling parts of Texas to a Spanish Company?  Check.  He is a total train wreck, guess I see why they love him.

  •  Perry is ideal (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury, northsylvania, MichaelNY

    He's exactly the sort of guy who pisses me off and makes me shake my head in bewilderment.

    If the Republicans just want to give people like me fits of disbelief...they'll pick Perry just like they picked Bush.

  •  How can anyone take (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Railfan, Fury, The Nose

    Perry seriously as President of the USA?  What will he say in his inauguration speech?. "Those of you who want to can stay, but the rest of ya'll can take your hats and go home.  Don't send us no more money and we won't send you any"  

  •  Perry. Resembles Bush (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Railfan

    but with better hair. Hehehehhe. I wouldn't spend that much time thinkin' about him.

    "Do I have any regrets about the hard votes I took?" No. Not at all...and I never will. --Mary Jo Kilroy

    by Kurt from CMH on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:09:57 PM PDT

  •  So they have a choice between (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fury

    the pale (Romney, Huntsman, Pawlenty) and beyond the pale (the rest). What a predicament!

  •  Per Nate, 80% chance that the GOP (5+ / 0-)

    nominates 1 of these 4: Romney, Pawlenty, Perry, Bachmann in that order.

    20% chance of someone else.

    I think the amount of schadenfreude I have felt watching Gingrich crash and burn is probably not healthy.


    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:10:51 PM PDT

  •  a selfish part of me hopes perry wins the nom (0+ / 0-)

    less damage he could do to Texas while he campaigns.

  •  Reflections (0+ / 0-)

    Mitt Romney reminds me of John Kerry in 2003. People forget that Kerry was generally thought to be the front runner until that fall. Dean started hauling in buzz and cash - mine included - but people generally thought Kerry. Gephardt was considered a one last time candidate, Lieberman was already on the outs with the party's base, and Edwards had a bit of Clinton-esque buzz, but hadn't yet found his two americas voice.  

    I could see a Perry or Bachmann surge this fall, but if the economy just continues treading water, I think a lot of republicans will decide to vote like pundits and pick a guy they think can beat Obama. I still believe that's what happened in 2004- I obviously disagreed then and now, but I think a lot of Dems thought Bush unbeatable, and figured they let the base have their Dean. When the media picked up on Dean tapping into a lot of unreported anger and Iraq started to blow up (and the codpiece photo op started becoming a bad joke), I think a lot of Dems went back to Kerry as a safe choice.  

    Full Disclosure: I am an unpaid shill for every paranoid delusion that lurks under your bed - but more than willing to cash any checks sent my way

    by zonk on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:16:52 PM PDT

    •  Bet lets put that in context: (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Nose

      Dean built his base of support on progressive activists and young people out in Iowa.

      Kerry went out and contested Iowa, but he went right at the unions. When he got the firefighters, who were basically heroes at that time, he surged. In other words, Kerry went right down to the much broader base of the party and brought them around.

      If Perry gets in, he's going to go right to social conservatives, who are the foot soldiers and base of the party. Furthermore, he'll be able to build on that by adding the Tea Party people. My question is, how does Romney overcome that with his country-club and corporate middle manager base? I don't think he can.

      And lets not forget, there is no Southern Conservative in this race and the vast majority of Republican delegate seats are in the South. You think a former Governor of Massachusetts, who has some TV moments during the Kennedy battle that are CERTAIN not to play well, is going to beat a well established Texas Governor whose conservative bonafides are unquestioned?

  •  The reason why they are Pushing Perry in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DEMonrat ankle biter, Fury

    is not to save them from Romney but from the Palin-Bachmann of the world. The Big-money want to have to nothing to do with the unwashed masses that is the teabaggers so seeing how weak Romney is they are afraid that Bachmann might actually win so expect Palin to enter to save the GOP from Bachmann.

    as far as Wall street is concern there is no credible conservative alternative to Romney since Pawlenty show himself to not have the fortitude necessary to take out Romney. ..so they will use all of their power to split the teabagger vote so that Romney can win.

  •  Remember when Trump was frontrunner? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Nose, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    These Repugs (esp the baggers) are so fickle its basically the candidate de jour for these folks.  Seems last one to announce, becomes the "one to watch".  

    Depending how many more decide to jump into the race,  the convention next year is going to be a hoot.  Can't wait to watch the party tear itself apart on Live TV

    "Now watch what you say or they'll be calling you a radical, a liberal, a fanatical criminal" -- Logical Song -- Rick Davies & Roger Hodgson

    by Over50Lib on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:22:16 PM PDT

  •  Why are we following the GOP primary race? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zizi
    On paper, Romney's definitely the front-runner, but he hasn't gotten a boost from the withdrawal of either Trump or Huckabee from the field. This is the first time that Fox has polled Perry's name and he's opening strong. Bachmann also does well, up from 4% in the previous poll
    .

    Yeah, yeah...I know...it behooves us to trash anyone and anyone that is running as a republican, but seems DKos front page posters are more "worried" about the republican candidates than they are about Obama.  Shouldn't we see a preponderance of favorable posts and positive presentations about Obama and the democratic initiatives here?  

    Easy to just find negative stuff about every GOP candidate that might...might...get to run against Obama, but what's the point, really?  I know it'll get people a ton of "recs" and stuff, but, let's talk about what we can do to get our party back in total control and to get our democratic president re-elected.  

    All we see about Romney and Bachmann and Newt and Perry and...well, you get the point...is that they're scuzzbuckets...different words, same message.

    C'mon...let's get into campaign mode for OBAMA...and for democrats.  

    Just my take.  Sorry if I've offended anyone here.

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:25:05 PM PDT

    •  focus on the other team ..to build a common (0+ / 0-)

      "enemy"...If you mention Obama there is going to be 5 post against  him blasting him for being both god and failing to be a god, for every post that tries to set the record straight.

      Liberals are focusing on the GOP primary because they want to maintain cohesion.

      •  I see that reasoning hron (0+ / 0-)

        But, that's not what I see here in a lot of cases...no, not all cases, of course.  I see trashing each and every GOP presidential hopeful as a way to get recs here...to be accepted in some way...to show their "democraticness" (is that a word? :-).  

        We should be presenting the accomplishments by Obama...showing what our president doing for our country and what his direction is and why it's good for Americans.  Again..It's just too easy to trash...not so easy to find why our candidate should be voted in again.

        That's what's gonna have to happen in the national campaign...if not, we're not going to have a very time being successful.

        -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

        by r2did2 on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:37:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  This is DKE (0+ / 0-)

      We focus on campaigns and elections here, both on the Democratic and Republican sides. If you're not interested in reading about Republican primaries, you are always free to skip this kind of thread.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 04:11:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, sure....I get that (0+ / 0-)

        Just seems like we're giving a whole lot of notariety and such to the GOP prez wanna-be's when we should be giving our effort to presenting our case for another 4 for Obama.  

        I do like the DKE stuff...don't get me wrong.  Very informative.  Just wish it wasn't so much about GOP candidates.  Once they have their candidate, maybe then more could be said.  But, hey, I'm just one poster here and probably not in the majority on DKos in my thinkin' on this.  Hard to say.

        Keep on doin' what you're doin' (like you wouldn't anyway :-)...Just IMO, okay?

        -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

        by r2did2 on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 05:36:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's not much to say about Obama here right now (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          because he won't be fighting in primaries this time. We don't present a case for Obama here; we just analyze the way the campaigns and elections are going. Obama's case can and should be presented in other parts of DailyKos, and especially on other sites that potential swing voters or voters who might sit out the election might read.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Jul 02, 2011 at 01:31:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Big jump for Huntsman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inoljt, MichaelNY

    Going from 2% to 3% is a 50% increase in his polling level!
    Just as I predicted - his trajectory could prove unstoppable.  

    I'll put on my glasses.... and tell you how sweet your ass is. (w/ apologies to Señor Bega)

    by mHainds on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 01:33:16 PM PDT

  •  So...the "establishment" clearly wants Mittens as (0+ / 0-)

    evidenced by the fundraising.

    The batshit want Perry or Bachmann.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White

    by zenbassoon on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 02:20:09 PM PDT

  •  Can we ignore polls until "Undecided" isn't ahead? (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously, I know polls are addictive and everything, but something like a few percentage points of eventual Republican primary voters are even paying attention right now. This is almost purely name recognition and members of the candidate's families.

    And he's not the most well-known candidate, even to GOP primary voters. Rudy Giuliani is. Newt Gingrich is probably second. I'd say Bachmann and Paul are at least as well-known to the polity as Romney.

    The only thing Romney is in the lead for is being the corporatist wing's pre-selected sock puppet.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 02:32:10 PM PDT

  •  T'would be hilarious... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    if the GOP mined Texas for their presidential candidate again...America ain't that stupid. Plus this one has a touch of the Jefferson Davis.

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