Caprock Escarpment of the Llano Estacado (south of Ralls, Texas)
Public Policy Polling (6/25-27, Texas voters, 1/14-16 in parens):
Barack Obama: 47 (45)
Rick Perry: 45 (45)
Undecided: 8 (11)
Barack Obama: 46 (46)
Sarah Palin: 44 (47)
Undecided: 10 (7)
Barack Obama: 42 (42)
Mitt Romney: 50 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)
Barack Obama: 43
Herman Cain: 43
Undecided: 14
Barack Obama: 43
Tim Pawlenty: 44
Undecided: 13
Barack Obama: 44
Michele Bachmann: 47
Undecided: 9
Barack Obama: 40
Ron Paul: 45
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Based on PPP's prior poll, it's no surprise to see Rick Perry languishing in his home state. And his job approvals are a pretty lousy 43-52, little better than Obama's 42-55 rating. But Tom Jensen offers an important word of caution:
Before Democrats get too excited about the prospect of winning Texas this needs to be noted — the vast majority of undecideds in all of these match-ups disapprove of the job Obama is doing. For instance in the match-up with Perry, 88% of undecideds disapprove of Obama's job performance to only 8% who approve. If you allocate the undecided voters based on their assessment of Obama that shifts the numbers 7 points and puts Perry ahead by 5.
The undecideds break down similarly in most of the head to heads between Obama and the various respective GOP candidates, something that would seem to reflect a lot of voters disliking the President but having their doubts about the GOP field of candidates as well. When push comes to shove those folks are not likely to be in the President's corner.
Still, this isn't where the GOP field wants to be in an obviously must-win state like Texas, especially against an incumbent Democrat with very mediocre approvals. If Texas is interesting next November, then it's likely that a whole lot of other states won't be.