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Map of Portland
Closeup of Portland under proposed map

If there's anyone out there who thought that the next state to wrap up the redistricting process would be Oregon -- a state that got to a later start than some and where neither party controls the trifecta, thanks to the state House being split 30-30 between the two parties -- rather than one of the ones who've been working on it for a long time and where one party controls all the three levers (like South Carolina), please raise your hand!

Hot on the heels of the surprise announcement that the legislature had agreed on a legislative map for the next decade, now today comes the even more surprising announcement that they've also agreed on a Congressional map. (The courts had to draw the map in both 1991 and 2001, and most observers expected the same thing this year.) Apparently the path of least resistance was to make as few changes as possible, and that's exactly what they did. If you looked at the map zoomed out statewide, you probably wouldn't even notice any differences from the old map; when you look at Portland and Corvallis with a magnifying glass, you start to notice the changes.

Few of the districts needed to change very much as a result of population growth; OR-01 was the only one that needed to shed a lot (36K), and it did so by giving much of Portland west of the Willamette River (most notably, the downtown area) to OR-03. Since NW Portland is about as solidly Democratic a bunch of white people as you'll ever see, the effect will probably be to make David Wu's district (currently 61% Obama) a point or two less Democratic. OR-05 also gives up part of its small portion of Portland to the 3rd, giving up most of its triangular-shaped share of affluent SW Portland, although it does gain a small bit of SE Portland in exchange; this too may also make Kurt Schrader's district (54% Obama) a smidgen less Democratic.

Since shoring up Earl Blumenauer (currently in a 71% Obama district) isn't exactly a good use of Democratic votes, some of you may be wondering where the "compromise" part comes in. That comes with OR-04, which needs to pick up the most people of any district (26K). It accomplishes that by picking up all of the college town of Corvallis, which previously was halved between the 4th and 5th in a weird-looking micro-gerrymander that was predicated on the idea of keeping U of O and OSU in separate districts. Now the 'gown' as well as 'town' parts of Corvallis are in Peter DeFazio's 4th, giving this swingy district (currently 54% Obama) a little bit of a blue boost. (As for eastern Oregon's GOP stronghold of OR-02, it only needed to shed 4K people, and its lines barely changed at all.)

Leadership from both parties have approved the deal, but the chambers still need to vote on it (and Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber needs to sign off on it), so we can't count this a done deal yet. Given how uncontroversial the whole thing looks, I'd expect smooth sailing, though. UPDATE: Here's a link to a (very large) pdf of the whole new map. Helpfully, it includes overlays of the old boundaries.

UPDATE A DAY LATER: As predicted yesterday, the map flew through the legislature today, clearing the Senate 24-6 and the House 58-2; it heads to Kitzhaber for his signature. You might also check out Kari Chisholm's take at Blue Oregon, for a more detailed analysis of what Portland neighborhood goes where.

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Comment Preferences

  •  anyone (4+ / 0-)

    wanna do a pvi calculation?

    18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:19:32 PM PDT

    •  We're still (4+ / 0-)

      working on rounding up precinct geography information from Oregon's various counties, so it may be a while till we have a decent spreadsheet, but just eyeballing it, we're looking at really hair-splitting differences here. Possibly changes as small as OR-01 from D+8 to D+7, OR-03 from D+19 to D+20, OR-04 from D+2 to D+3, and OR-05 from D+1 to Even.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:27:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it'll be worse (0+ / 0-)

        in the 1st, probably D+5 or 6.  That's what I got with the second Dem map (+5.5), and this looks similar.  My calculation for their 5th was D+2 (actually a hair less), and this looks worse.  It's currently D+2.  The 4th is D+1, this probably makes it D+2.

        This is a dumb map.  Not only is it bad for Democrats, but it makes really dumb changes, like moving the 5th a bit into SE Portland.  I hope it doesn't pass.

        "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

        by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 07:24:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Just eyeballing it... (6+ / 0-)

    It looks decent. I think Bonamici (who has used this redistricting work to present herself as a bipartisan leader) or Witt (who is more conservative than Commissioner Avakian, Rep. Wu, or Bonamici) would be a good fit for OR-01. Of course Republicans expect that Rep. Schrader will be weakened by the tweaked OR-05 configuration, but from where I'm sitting, it looks like OR-03 takes a big bite out of those Clackamas County exurbs and I'm fairly certain that the part of Clackamas County left in the district actually went for now-Gov. Kitzhaber last year in his narrow victory statewide (the county as a whole went Republican). Considering the blue trend in Marion County as well as in the southern Portland suburbs contained within the district, I think it's still going to be difficult for Republicans - especially considering how politically adept Schrader has proven himself to be.

    I'm really glad Corvallis was put into OR-04, which is actually trending away from Democrats thanks to the conservative drift of the southern Oregon Coast (which used to be union territory) and the decline of the heavily unionized logging industry.

    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:26:20 PM PDT

    •  We'll see how counties (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      supercereal, SaoMagnifico

      like Dechutes go in 2012. Extending into swingish areas like Deschutes and dropping Douglas is probably where OR-04 will go after 2020.

      "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:36:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  AFAIK, Oregon is on track... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        supercereal, TheUnknown285

        To add a sixth district next decade. I'm guessing it would be a Central Oregon-based district stretching from Hood River down to the California (and possibly Nevada) state line.

        If Deschutes County c.2020 doesn't look like Marion or Clackamas counties c.2010 in terms of partisan numbers, I will eat my hat.

        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:41:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, I just tried to map it... (0+ / 0-)

          And the eight-county definition of Eastern Oregon has so little population that it just can't be done without radically changing the configuration of OR-02 (such as drawing it into suburban and urban Multnomah and/or Clackamas counties, which is the very definition of a non-starter). So, you may well be right about a district putting Deschutes and Lane counties together, though I suspect the map would rather either include all of Josephine and parts of Jackson County or parts of both instead of jumping the Cascades into Central Oregon.

          Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 04:21:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Perhaps liberal Ashland? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

            by ArkDem14 on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 07:40:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That was my thought, too. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 08:17:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Ashland has fewer than 20,000 people (0+ / 0-)

              IIRC.

              "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 08:20:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I just did up a six-district map... (0+ / 0-)

                That sends OR-04 along the state line and up to take Ashland, Medford, and a few outlying towns like Jacksonville. It's just 201 heads over the target population, which of course isn't statistically significant considering it will be a decade until the next redistricting.

                Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 09:54:04 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That would have to be a Republican (0+ / 0-)

                  drawn map because it looks to me like 3 out of six would lean Republican.

                  Compare:

                  Photobucket

                  4/1/1.  The 1st district becomes the coastal district that many have been advocating, and to compensate for the fact that a coastal district can't really happen on account of the small population, take in some rural stretches of inner counties and Portland.  The 2nd takes more of Southern Oregon but loses Bend and the Gorge.  The 3rd loses NW and NE Portland sections and stretches out to become a gorge district.  The 4th becomes a Eugene-Bend-Corvallis-Albany district.  The 5th becomes a Clackamas and Marion Counties district (the closest swing district).  The new 6th comprises the major cities of Washington and Yamhill Counties.

                  It doesn't have population equity, rather I based the districts on my estimates of what growth will be like.

                  "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                  by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:09:36 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  There's no way your OR-02... (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, tietack

                    Has enough population there, and I don't think it will.

                    As for the partisan breakdown of the map...following present trends...really? You're certainly the most bearish person here on Oregonian partisan politics - which is a useful perspective to keep some of our sunny optimism in check, to be sure - but I don't see how you get that. There are a lot of young Latinos in Marion County now who will very likely be registered voters by 2022; Washington County is not nearly as swingy as you fear (when was the last time it voted Republican in a statewide partisan election?); Clackamas County is turning bluer (and about 100,000 residents of those districts are north of the county line in SW/SE Portland); and any district anchored by the double twin cities of Eugene–Springfield and Medford–Ashland is going to be a pretty good bet for the Democrats.

                    A Republican map would certainly keep OR-05 out of Multnomah County entirely and probably assign it Polk County instead of Tillamook County; send OR-06 down the southern coast instead of down the valley into interior Lane County; and give OR-04 all of Josephine County and parts of rural Jackson County instead of Medford and Ashland.

                    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Should be "that district" for OR-05. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack

                      Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:34:05 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

                      Medford is not a Democratic town, and Ashland and Eugene Springfield I don't think are Democratic enough to compensate for Coos, Curry, Douglas, and the rest of Jackson County.

                      As far as my map, my 2nd I anticipated, I think, needing to pick up about a thousand at the next redistricting, so it wasn't off by much.

                      I don't think I'm bearish on trends.  Washco, without the rural bits, plus Newberg, plus McMinnville, plus some of SW Portland, should be at least lean Dem.  Coos-Clatsop, plus Columbia, plus rural parts of Benton, Yamhil, and Washco, plus Florence and coastal Lane, plus Polk, and NW and NE Portland, should lean Dem.  SE & outer east Portland & East County, plus Hood River & the Dalles should be enough to push the 3rd into being blue, even if it takes Happy Valley and some other reddish parts of Clackamas County.  Umatilla County is also heavily (public employee) union, and this could be a good district for a populist Dem.  The 4th on my map, Corvallis, Eugene should push it blue, Linn County red, but Bend and the other parts of Deschutes not as much, and overall lean Dem.  I removed Redmond and some other redder parts.

                      The 5th on my map, well, having pulled some of the redder parts of Clackamas out, it should be about even.  I think Schrader or a Salem Dem like Brian Clem would be good fits.

                      Worst case we probably get 4/6, which ain't bad.  In a decent year we should be able to win the 5th too.

                      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                      by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:46:32 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  d'oh (0+ / 0-)

                      forgot the meaning of "bearish" vs. bullish.  Lol.

                      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                      by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:51:44 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  So here's the problems: (0+ / 0-)

                  Tillamook gave Kurt something like a 500 vote margin, but something similar for Dudley.  Yamhill is very red.  Your portions of Marion in the 5th, aside from parts of Woodburn, are also red.  I think Clackamas County is swingy enough that your portion of Portland doesn't save it.  Even at best.

                  Your 4th, already said.  Eugene isnot enough to overcome the red territories.

                  The pink district, assuming it doesn't include Eugene (looks like maybe some peripheral edges), well, Corvallis cancels out Albany, Lincoln and Lane portions cancel out Polk and rural Marion, and Salem tips the balance to... probably barely lean Dem?

                  These are guesstimates, sure, but I'd balk at it.

                  "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                  by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:57:06 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Portlanders have extremely high turnout rates... (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, tietack, supercereal

                    And with 100,000 residents coming from Multnomah County, and the bulk of the rest coming from a light blue (and trending darker blue) swath of Clackamas County, I don't see how Yamhill County gets to decide who represents OR-05 by 2022. (Also, Yamhill County went for Sen. McCain in 2008 by just a point and a half; it's a red county, but it's not exactly Malheur County.)

                    As for the pink district, I'm thinking it's probably lean Democratic and would be reasonably solid by the end of the decade courtesy of disproportionately high Latino population growth rates. Brian Clem would be an ideal candidate there; Albany Mayor Sharon Konopa, a progressive Democrat who dramatically overperformed expectations in an outright demolition of the Linn County Republican Party chairwoman last year, could be formidable if she were interested (and she is young enough).

                    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:07:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  That could be. (0+ / 0-)

                      It's just closer than I'd be comfortable with.

                      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                      by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:11:18 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Close... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        tietack

                        Is how we wring five Democrats out of a total of six House members from a state that took days for the AP to call for then-Vice President Gore just over 10 years ago.

                        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:18:43 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yeah, (0+ / 0-)

                          but we can do better.  I think my map would be better, and despite your objections, the only deviances for population were based on my efforts to correct for growth.

                          "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:27:43 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The centerpiece of your map... (0+ / 0-)

                            Combines downtown Portland with parts of Central and Eastern Oregon. I think that's a non-starter no matter how you bill it.

                            Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 12:55:09 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  No part of downtown is on the east side. (0+ / 0-)

                            I split the west side between the 1st and 6th.  That's where downtown is.  The east side is paired with the gorge in a district that makes sense in the context of the gorge.  The coast with northeast Portland makes less sense, but a lot of people want a coastal district, and there's no way to do it without going into non-coastal areas.

                            Besides, as Suzanne Bonamici said, a district isn't necessarily supposed to be one coherent community.  The goal is to not divide communities unnecessarily.  I preserved all city lines except for Portland's (and nibbled at the edge of Salem). Having a coastal district that also includes North and Northeast Portland is fine in that context.  Having a district that includes Southeast Portland, East County, and the gorge is also.  Clackamas and Marion make sense together.  Washington and Yamhill County cities makes sense, too.  I think my map makes a lot of sense according to the standards we're given, aside from splitting a lot of counties.

                            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                            by James Allen on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 03:09:31 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I just don't see legislators drawing it (0+ / 0-)

                            Portland has never been carved up that way in a map. It certainly has never been combined with Eastern Oregon or an Oregon Coast district.

                            Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 10:50:22 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I can't disagree with you there (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            but I think it as more of a proof of concept map.

                            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                            by James Allen on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 11:00:14 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

              •  But Jackson County has 200,000 (0+ / 0-)

                and I thought it was modestly trending blue (including Ashland and environs).

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:48:11 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Only for Obama. (0+ / 0-)

                  Medford and the towns around it are persistently Republican in other races.  They may have been trending Dem, but if so, are doing so slowly, and the recession might've killed the growth that had caused the trend.

                  "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                  by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:50:40 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack

                    There is no reason to believe that only one person can possibly get those voters to pull the lever for a Democrat. BlueOregon suggests most Obama voters in Jackson County in 2008 also voted for Jeff Merkley (story here) and that Jackson County Democrats are upbeat about the trends in the area.

                    Right now, it'd be a marginal district. In ten years, I don't think it will be.

                    Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 10:56:42 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Jackson and Deschutes have been very hard hit (0+ / 0-)

                      by the recession, and what had been explosive growth has come to a halt. That growth had been pushing the Dem trend.  I don't assume that it'll automatically restart.  An estimate recently came out showing Bend might not recover until the end of the decade.

                      And Obama had 8,000 voters in Jackson who didn't vote for Merkley.  Smith and McCain both got 49,000 or so votes.  Obama had 49,000 and Merkley 41,000.  That's the difference between 49% and 43%.  It's a big difference.  Dudley got 55% and Kitz less than 42%.  Alan bates, recall, had a senate district with just Ashland and some parts of Medford, and barely held on last fall by a couple hundred votes.  Our house candidate in the Medford section of his district got crushed 57-43.

                      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                      by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:07:14 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  After the new Facebook data farm started in (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico, supercereal

                        Prineville, I think the economy will turn in Bend considerably sooner than that -- with effects similar to Google in the Dalles.

                        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                        by tietack on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:16:16 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't think you understand how hard Bend (0+ / 0-)

                          was hit.  In November of 2008 their number of people applying for food stamps increased by hundreds of percent, 1,200% IIRC.  It takes something mighty fierce to completely halt the 30% growth that Bend had over the decade until then.  I don't expect it to ever grow like that again.  Similar for Southern Oregon, but not as much.

                          "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:23:44 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Economic bubbles pop --and the economies come back (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            SaoMagnifico

                            I am not discounting the pain. But Bend has advantages of geography, and now an educated workforce (if my reading is correct), that have not changed.

                            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                            by tietack on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:30:58 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  asdf (0+ / 0-)
                            Metro Bend? Oregon's poster city for the housing bubble won't stage a jobs comeback until "beyond 2021," the forecasters said. They see double-digit unemployment gripping Deschutes County through 2013.

                            Medford will take until 2018 and Eugene-Springfield until 2019, the report said.

                            Metro Bend lost 11,800 - more than 16 percent of its jobs.

                            Deschutes County — where Bend is located — experienced one foreclosure per 168 homes, 14 percent worse than Wayne, County, Michigan, home to Detroit and the troubled auto industry.

                            Don't expect it to resume anytime soon.

                            "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                            by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:39:32 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I remember similar reports in the early 90s (0+ / 0-)

                            and in the early 80s before that.

                            One thing they frequently miss is strength in economic recoveries.

                            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                            by tietack on Thu Jun 30, 2011 at 06:30:10 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  If I remember right, Alan Bates... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        tietack

                        Was forecast to lose, and he ended up overperforming and pulling off a narrow win.

                        At any rate, if it looks like Medford is going to remain unfriendly to Republicans in the long term, it's not too hard to tweak the district to get rid of the redder precincts. That would probably move OR-03 into Hood River County; give OR-05 about 20-40,000 more Multnomah County residents; shift OR-06 north a bit to take in Silverton, Mt. Angel, Gervais, and environs; and give more of Lane County to OR-04.

                        Independent, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:16:42 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Bates (0+ / 0-)

                          OLCV tried to give him some help towards the end, and he turned them down, saying he didn't need it, and asked if he could help them.  I don't know how it was forecast, but it came out of nowhere.  They're drawing the district to be less Democratic now.  I don't expect another year like 2010 soon, so I assume we're pretty safe, but having worked for Martha Schrader and seen her lose out of nowhere too, I am a bit cautious, I admit.

                          "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

                          by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:49:38 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  As for growth in Jackson County, people will still (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico

                        migrate from the next state down. Given the relative differences in taxes and housing, in a free market, the growth will continue.

                        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                        by tietack on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:18:47 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  This recession will end too (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    And the growth in places like Medford and Bend will resume. (I bring up Bend to make a connection to similar growth in other smaller mountain west municipalities that are helping team blue longer term.)

                    I think it's similar to growth in other northern relatively rural areas where evangelicals don't have a huge foothold.

                    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                    by tietack on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 11:07:40 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I gotta say Medford is so much better place... (0+ / 0-)

                      ...than the timber boom/bust town of the 60's now. Really, downtown is really pretty decent with its share of traffic problems, freeway cutting it in half and expansion toward White City. Still waaay better today than in yesteryear.

                      RCC/SOU campus, Craterian, Library (ohmigod govt. projects) all make the place pretty decent climate for people and business.

                      "Always remember this: They fight with money and we resist with time, and they’re going to run out of money before we run out of time." -Utah Philips

                      by TerryDarc on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 10:02:32 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, but we ALL vote (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                And I'm doubting we've voted for a Red anything since the 60's...

                "Always remember this: They fight with money and we resist with time, and they’re going to run out of money before we run out of time." -Utah Philips

                by TerryDarc on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 09:49:31 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Worth noting (5+ / 0-)

      (though probably not worth another paragraph in the main story, so I'll talk about it here) is that OR-05 picks up the close-in Clackamas Co. suburb of Milwaukie, which used to be in OR-03. I think Milwaukie, which is pretty blue-collar, may actually be the most Dem-friendly part of Clackamas Co., so picking that up while losing some of the most well-off parts of Portland may work out fine for OR-05.

      Also, zooming in even closer, I noticed that the area around NW 23rd (Portland's original gayborhood) still seems to be in Wu's district. The 3rd's western growth instead seems to follow Hwy 26 up into the West Hills, which is another wealthy area -- and I'm not sure how many people actually live in true Downtown, so I think the damage to OR-01 is pretty limited too. (I assume teh gays' crack team of regentrifiers have moved from the NW on to parts of the NE by now?)

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 03:54:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Aside from Milwaukie, a lot of those (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      supercereal

      new areas of Clackamas County that the 5th picks up are often reddish.  If I held the 5th I'd not be happy with this map.  It doesn't even maintain the status quo in the swingiest district.  

      And it risks the 5th, too.  If Wu survives the primary, this could be bad.  Shoring up one district while making two more vulnerable is not my idea of a good map.

      "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 07:32:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  When will you have a final verdict on it? (0+ / 0-)

      As in, once you're done analyzing it more closely.

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 08:34:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So not much to see here I guess (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285

    most of the districts stay about the same, with the GOP having a small chance at nabbing Schrader's district but given that he did alright last year, I think we're set for a 4-1 delegation for awhile.

    Also, looks like South Carolina's gerrymandering may have hit a snag, as the Dem plan actually passed the state Senate with a few crossover GOP votes.  The big difference is this plan centers the new district around light-blue Charleston, instead of deep-red Myrtle Beach.

    This could be fun.  If it goes to court we will likely see a better map than the state House one, and we will probably have a chance at nabbing the new seat or knocking off Tim Scott.

  •  I'd like to note that if this passes on (0+ / 0-)

    Republican votes, Republicans will be partially responsible for the ugliest drawn map of Portland yet, and one that preserves the division of Multnomah County into three districts.

    "Intolerance is something which belongs to the religions we have rejected." - J.J. Rousseau -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 09:01:14 PM PDT

  •  We are not "Obama" districts (0+ / 0-)

    Please stop referring to us in relation to Obama.  You can refer to us as progressives, liberals, radicals or whatever.  If you insist on referring to us in terms of Obama, please preface it with either "disappointed in" or "disillusioned in."

    •  I think that may refer to past performace... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      ...in 2008 elections. A bit bitter are we?

      "Always remember this: They fight with money and we resist with time, and they’re going to run out of money before we run out of time." -Utah Philips

      by TerryDarc on Fri Jul 01, 2011 at 10:04:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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