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Goal Thermometer
In August, months and months of effort will culminate in a set of unprecedented recall elections in the state of Wisconsin, focused on a single aim: taking back the state Senate from Republicans and dealing a major blow to Gov. Scott Walker's war against the middle class, students, and above all, unions.

We've been asking for your help to support the recall campaign, and now we have some very interesting news to share. Over the weekend, we tested the waters in three races where Democrats are running against incumbent Republicans. This is what the state of play looks like:

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (6/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

SD-32:

Jennifer Shilling (D): 56
Dan Kapanke (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±2.3%)

SD-18:

Jessica King (D): 50
Randy Hopper (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ±2.9%)

SD-10:

Shelly Moore (D): 45
Sheila Harsdorf (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±2.8%)

That's two very closes races and one contest with a big Democratic edge. If we can find a way to convert all of these, Democrats will have a major victory on their hands. While we never want to take anything for granted, state Rep. Jennifer Shilling looks to be in a strong position against Sen. Dan Kapanke, buoyed by the favorable blue hue of the 32nd Senate district. Kapanke's job approval rating sits at just 41-54, while Shilling is viewed favorably at a 56-33 clip, which indicates he has some serious obstacles to overcome if he is to survive.

The other two races on this list are undeniably tougher—but winnable. Oshkosh Deputy Mayor Jessica King is in a rematch against Sen. Randy Hopper, who edged her by fewer than 200 votes in a 2008 race that went to a recount. Hopper has considerable negative baggage: According to reports, he left his wife and moved out of his district to take up with a twenty-something mistress (a Republican consultant, no less), whom he later helped get a government job complete with big pay raise. Once the advertising wars heat up and voters get re-introduced to Hopper, we stand a good chance of knocking his approval ratings down and hopefully widening King's small lead.

Finally, teacher and activist Shelly Moore is taking on Sen. Sheila Harsdorf, whom she trails by five. Moore was the subject of an early attack ad by the Club for Growth, which had been airing for a week before we went into the field. Fortunately, the labor umbrella group We Are Wisconsin fired back with a "compare-and-contrast" spot hitting Harsdorf late last week, which was probably too recent to have an effect on our poll. So the fact that the contest is still so close despite a weeklong barrage against Moore suggests that once the We Are Wisconsin ad begins to penetrate, the race could tighten further. In other words, it's definitely within reach.

But none of this—not even the Kapanke race, and certainly not the Hopper and Harsdorf races—is going to be easy. It's going to take time, effort, and money—lots of money. Right-wing groups like the Club for Growth and the Koch brothers can dump in tons of cash at a moment's notice, which is why we need to support Wisconsinites in their efforts to take back their state from radical Republicans. So please consider making a $10 contribution to support Jennifer Shilling, Jessica King, Shelly Moore and all the other Democrats running in recall elections this summer. (Remember, there are three other Republican recall targets—and three Democratic targets, too.)

Daily Kos plans on conducting additional polling so that we can stay on top of the entire recall situation. But for the moment, the most important thing any of us can do is volunteer (if you're local), and contribute (no matter where you live). A path to victory is just that: a path. It needs to get paved, and we've got to pave it. So please, chip in!

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 05:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Elections and A Fighting Chance.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Thanks (15+ / 0-)

    for the $$$$ link and when I get my unemployment check I'll send a few $$ that way. I love to use what money the govt gives me to defeat the repugs or bad demodogs.

  •  Thanks! (8+ / 0-)

    I'm in Ellis' district but will be strongly supporting Jessica King.

    "Small acts, when multiplied by millions of people, can transform the world." — Howard Zinn

    by blueyedace2 on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 05:11:07 PM PDT

  •  Hopper @ 47%? (16+ / 0-)

    Seriously?  What would he have to do to lose Republican support?  Strangle a puppy on live TV?  Or would the puppy "have it coming" in the collective opinion of Wisconsin Republicans?

    ....no longer in SF.... -9.00, -7.38

    by TFinSF on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 05:18:07 PM PDT

  •  Done. (14+ / 0-)

    These are e most important races in the country right now.  This is where progressives can demonstrate their clout and show Dems who do the right thing that we have their back.  It is all I am contributing to at this point, probably for the remainder of the year.

    I look at races lie this as an investment in better Dems for the future.  These races will send a real clear message to pols even if the media doesn't pay attention.

    The scientific uncertainty doesn't mean that climate change isn't actually happening.

    by Mimikatz on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 05:18:50 PM PDT

    •  It seems that there have been a couple of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      buckybadger1988

      favorble developments this week ---  One GOP wanna be couldn't get enough signatures to be on the ballot, leaving a real 'winner' ( not ) to be the standard bearer.

       As well, the Supreme Court Strangler affair can't help the GOP in the long run. It will stay in the news throughout the whole recall season serving as a reminder of what the GOP has to offer.

      it tastes like burning...

      by eastvan on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 06:19:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This doesn't look so amazing (4+ / 0-)

    SD-18 reports an electorate that voted for McCain, and Obama is underwater in the 18th and the 10th.

    I hope there's better news in the other districts.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 05:24:55 PM PDT

  •  Are these three the strongest win possibilities (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    greatdarkspot, andgarden

    in the recalls? If so, prospects look dim. Or if not and at least 2 of the 3 others are close things would look quite promising.

  •  Not great (7+ / 0-)

    I really don't see those numbers as all that encouraging. The way I view this is that it doesn't matter if the Dems wind up with net two seats. The only victory will be if they take control of the Senate. If they don't, I think it will be spun as a loss (and I think it will in fact BE a loss). I don't believe that anyone who pays any attention to the news and would be a likely voter doesn't know what the issue is as to why these people are being recalled. On the other hand, their Dem opposition is still mostly undefined - and there will be scads of money to define them in a negative way.
    I expected better numbers, frankly.

  •  Utterly Appalling that ANY Recall Races are close! (5+ / 0-)

    I am sorry to say this, but after all of the coverage on just how heinous and unethical the tactics and right-wing agenda are that is being proposed and shoved down the throats of Wisconsin residents by the Walker/Koch/Fitzgerald/Prosser Administration, it is SHAMEFUL that any of the recall elections could even be close.  By now, Democrats SHOULD be looking at cruising to victory against these Complete Corporate Puppets.  The fact that this indeed may NOT be the case is a very sad reflection on the state of so many Wisconsin voters--who obviously have totally bought into the Fox News View of the World.

    Please do not scream that I am a defeatist.  I live in Illinois and have contributed and gone up to Wisconsin numerous times since this all began in February--from joining the protesters, to helping collect signatures on recall petitions, to canvassing for the actual Democratic candidates running in the upcoming Recall Elections.

    Nevertheless, the fact that so many Wisconsin voters supposedly still support the Koch puppets and their agenda of destroying unions, public education and environmental protections-- to list just a few of their "intentions" and "accomplishments" so far-- is truly shameful!

    I hope these polls--and myself--are wrong and that the Republicans--and Walker shortly afterwards--are thrown out of office by an enormous margin!

    •  what media do they have up there? (4+ / 0-)

      Because unless they have easy access to real news, i.e., left progressive radio, I doubt most of Wisconsin is paying attention or understands, outside of Madison.

      Tell me I'm wrong.

    •  Please stop the appalling & shameful bit (5+ / 0-)

      The media doesn't report what is going on and in fact many people still don't understand why the Fab14 had to go to IL.  The media is poo-pooing the recalls and they still make it sound like this is just about the Unions.

      The media doesn't explain that the Huge cuts to SeniorCare, Women's HealthCare, BadgerCare, the University Of Wisconsin were done at the same time huge tax breaks were given to Corporations and the Wealthy. The media doesn't explain that the GOP is trying to kill our small beer brewers for Miller and Coors or that they will kill off our wonderful WiscNet which connects the schools, universities, and libraries as a favor to AT&T.

      The GOP returned our rural Internet money and most of the TV and radio stations are owned by conservatives. If you don't live in Dane County you won't be able to hear the 2 progressive radio stations.

      So rant all you want, but the conservatives have been setting this up a LONG time and it may take a LONG time to fix Wisconsin. We will do our best, but help is always appreciated.

      "We are slow to realize that democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ~ "Fighting Bob" - Robert M. LaFollette Sr.

      by Sand Hill Crane on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 07:20:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for spelling it out, Sand Hill Crane. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        neaguy

        I think you're right. Not everyone knows all the wierd stuff the Republicans are pulling off here.  I think this will take time. You forgot to mention the 800 million dollar cuts to education, while expanding vouchers for the poor to vouchers for everyone in Racine and Milwaukee. (Basically a tax cut for people wanting to send their kids to private schools.)

        Also, the wierd wind farm regulations, the train money that we now have to pay back, the voter ID bill.

      •  I know. I look at the MJS online every day. (4+ / 0-)

        Yes, you are right.  Much of the WI media is barely even reporting the alleged and recent Prosser assault--so I know what you are talking about.

        But there comes a time when we Progressives have to acknowledge just how much of America--everywhere  including Wisconsin--has totally bought into the the rightwingnut agenda.  Decades of Fox News has had its toll!  And with all the money the Roves and the Kochs can now freely spend with no stipulations whatsoever--thanks to the so-called Citizens United ruling--I fear things will only get worse.

        And as I said, I have been pounding the pavement in Wisconsin a heck of lot for all of this--and still plan to. But it doesn't do us Progressive any good if we fail to acknowledge just how many people have bought into all of the Repugnican Propaganda and spin.  And it is indeed shameful!!!  So I really don't understand your point.  There is no doubt that we have an uphill battle that is getting higher by the minute!

        •  Appalling and Shameful? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Milhawkee, neaguy

          You said:

          "It is SHAMEFUL that any of the recall elections could even be close."
          I don't consider those words to be applicable to this situation.

          I don't consider it a "shameful" situation. I consider Scott Walker, the Fitzgerald's and the rest of GOP Legislative users of ALEC to be criminals. As for the voters being hoodwinked and misinformed, that sits at the feet of the corporate owned media and it should also be considered criminal as well.

          "We are slow to realize that democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ~ "Fighting Bob" - Robert M. LaFollette Sr.

          by Sand Hill Crane on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:19:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Some people will vote Republican no matter what (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            zett

            the Repugs do!!  Sand Hill Crane, I am all-too-aware of how bought and sold much of the media is.  But it comes to a point where Progressives look silly with their constant excuses for why so many voters continue to vote Repugnican no matter what the Party or Republican leaders do.  If  this many Wisconsin voters  STILL can't figure out--after all of Walker's union busting, budget cuts and the Paul Ryan budget itself-- what the Republican Party stands for, then they never will.  And perhaps even more to the point, probably many of them actually agree with it.  

            And yes, I DO think it is shameful and appalling just how many Americans have totally bought into the Fox News View of the World--something Progressives need to acknowledge if we ever are going to start turning things around.  Of course, the media is Corporate-controlled with folks like Koch, Rove and Murdoch running much of  the show.   But in the end, people ALLOW themselves to buy into this spin and propaganda--and they continue to do so!

    •  They're close because they're Republican districts (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, BeloitDem, LordMike

      All of the incumbents are Republicans who beat the Obama tidal wave in 2008, some of whom have been around for years, if not decades.

  •  reality is tough. we need to be tough as well. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    we have to fight this battle win or lose. if we win we dance around the camp fire and marvel at the heads we put on pikes. if we lose we sit around the camp fire and discuss what we do to win the next battle and console each other as our heads are symbolically on the pikes for the moment. then we get up and dust ourselves off and go back to battle for the future of our species. and this goes on forever.

    •  While Rove & the Koch Bro. spend Billionns of $$ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      singe

      per second compared to our relative nickels and dimes that we spend hours and hours just to collect from folks like us.

    •  It's all GOTV with special elections (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Midwesterners

      "Likely" voters are just those people who usually vote.   Also, the poll doesn't include cell phone users.  

      I'm from Mass. and all my political donations are going to Wisconsin this year.  Any advice as to where the money is going to be most effective.  I send to individual candidates.  

      I'd roll out the Shelley Moore ads ASAP.  

      And where are the parents of public school kids?  Aren't they in a complete snit about the budget cutbacks?

      •  When cellphones are all that most people have, (0+ / 0-)

        how can these polls be taken seriously still? It's just old people.

        •  Weighting based on age (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, buckybadger1988

          partially accounts for that. There's some evidence that people with just cell phones are more liberal than others of similar demographic profile, but it's not "just old people"

        •  "Just old people" (0+ / 0-)

          are the ones that actually show up to vote. And while, yes, there's some unpredictable cell-phone factor, part of the reason this country is broken is because our generation only shows up to the polls when it's convenient or shiny, leaving hordes of befuddled old people who can't tell the difference between the modern GOP and Eisenhower. That's how we got 2010, after all.

          Obviously, there will be plenty of youth turnout for this particular election, but measuring people with a land line is still an accurate baseline if done properly.

          FYI, I'm 26 and have had a land line for 2 years.

  •  Thanks for the news and the link to $$$ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jct, itskevin, davehouck

    Just threw in $50. This just seems like such an important set of races that can build momentum. Early money pays off biggest, right?

    E Pluribus Unum: Out of many, one.

    by Ian Reifowitz on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 06:22:13 PM PDT

  •  this is big people (4+ / 0-)

    i'll do my part in madison when the time comes. gogogogogogo

  •  Dems facing recall (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Has any polling been done on those races?

    •  Haven't seen any and I doubt there will be (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Congressional races are expensive to poll and are usually done by public pollsters close to the election.  State senate races would be even more expensive so I doubt we'd be seeing any polls of the races, unless the WI Dem Party releases them to show an ass-whooping or the GOP releases them to show their party being competitive.

      •  Why would a state senate race (0+ / 0-)

        Be more expensive to poll?

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 08:12:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh come on (0+ / 0-)

          Just say right or wrong next time!

          •  which at this point you probably don't need to (0+ / 0-)
            •  Heh well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              buckybadger1988

              What matters is the sample size you're looking for. That determines how many calls you need to make, which determines how many voter records you need to be able to draw from. Those two things are what generally determines costs for polling, though with IVR polling, voter lists are a much bigger factor than making calls, since it's just a robot doing the latter.

              So you could easily have a state senate poll cost more or less than a U.S. Senate poll, just depending on how big you want your sample to be. If anything, smaller races often have smaller samples (because it's cheaper and budgets are smaller). Our samples were ridiculously huge for these races because people are very engaged in Wisconsin right now, so people are responding to our polls at a much higher rate than normal. (We saw that even more insanely in our March polls.)

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Wed Jun 29, 2011 at 01:32:54 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Disappointed that you didn't survey ALL the races (7+ / 0-)

    We've recalled my State Senator Luther Olsen, but you didn't poll it. Looking at numbers from March for the 14th Senate District race isn't going to do us any good nor is the fact you are ignoring the Democratic candidate in that race, Fred Clark in your plea for donations.

    This morning I got an email from Emily's List telling me to support the Democratic women in the Recall races which is nice, but once again it leaves out Fred Clark because he is the only Democratic male candidate.

    There is a fake Democrat in this race which will force a primary election. This primary will eat up more of Fred's campaign funds, meanwhile the recalled GOP Senator Luther Olsen does  not have primary opponent.

    If you have some extra funds, could you please send some Fred's way? His campaign website, Fred Clark for Wisconsin, has a link for donations.

    Thank you for everything you do to Help Wisconsin.

    "We are slow to realize that democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ~ "Fighting Bob" - Robert M. LaFollette Sr.

    by Sand Hill Crane on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 07:04:30 PM PDT

  •  It looks close folks! -nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike
    •  It is, though I think it's encouraging... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scribeboy

      The things we have going for us are numerous, but here are a few:

      We have petitions with signatures of tens of thousands of voters in each of these districts. That is an AWESOME GOTV tool.

      For the most part, we haven't even started advertising yet. Republicans will need to use advertising not only to convince swing voters to vote for them but also to generate turnout. With so much enthusiasm on our side, we already have the turnout. We can focus on swing voter persuasion.

      Indie voters HATE single party government. Many of them will be predisposed to a vote against the incumbent.

      This isn't to say that we don't have a lot of work in front of us. We do. But if, as a neutral observer, I had to choose sides in this fight, I'd want to be on ours.

  •  Why was the decision made to only poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    these 3 races and not the other Republican races or Democratic ones? Just wondering what went into the decision...

  •  I think they will poll all 9 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    but are just staggering it

    All Wisconsin, All the Time, Social Democrat, currently WI-05 (Home), Oxford East (Study Abroad), NY-22 (College)

    by glame on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 07:58:49 PM PDT

  •  Walker claims "people are ready to move on" (6+ / 0-)

    I think he's full of shit. These polls don't discourage me in the least--Kapanke is toast and Harsdorf is vulnerable. I'm a bit surprised Hopper is only down 3 points but I'll take it.

    Very anxious to see the future Alberta Darling poll results, she is my State Senator and has a strong challenger in Sandy Pasch. Thanks for polling these recall races!

  •  Looks good (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, LordMike, Matt Z

    King leading by three points and being right at 50% is good news, the district includes very Republican Fond du Lac and for the Democrat to be leading at all is encouraging. Harsdorf can still be upset, I suspect she's got some personal popularity and Moore will have to hammer away at the issues at hand to get voters to look past that. That district did go Dem in the court election, so it's definitely flippable.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 08:04:53 PM PDT

  •  I love the usually very sober analysis here ... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Skaje, Matt Z, itskevin

    But some of the folks on this thread seem to have completely lost it. Do people think that Walker and his allies have no support? That they're just crazy or pawns of the Koch brothers and no ordinary Wisconsites support him? Wow. Wake up people. This is a 50/50 fight, and if your will is so weak you'd take a poll like this as bad news, then frankly, get out of the way.

    Seems to me like we have one in the bank. Another with a severely damaged incumbent behind with a few weeks to go, with is nearly always terminal. And a third which will decide Senate control (barring an upset in one of the other races). Poor Ms. Moore better get ready. She's gonna be slimed beyond belief, because the other side side knows her district decides everything. I think this is a helluva lot of progress, considering these incumbents won in 2008 when Obama destroyed McCain in the state. Fight on, badgers! You've got my money.

    •  Our will is not weak. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sand Hill Crane, Matt Z

      Some of us are very new to this political stuff, personally, I never paid any attention to polls before this.  

    •  Yeah there's like two camps here (7+ / 0-)

      the first group is like wow, we're already leading in two races, and within a few points of the third seat that would give us control of the Senate?  Cool beans.  The second group is WHY AREN'T WE POLLING AHEAD BY 30 POINTS IN EVERY RACE?!

      I'll be honest, I had hoped to see us actually polling ahead in 3 or even 4 seats at this point, but I'm definitely encouraged by these numbers, not discouraged.  People forget, even getting this far is unprecedented.  Aside from Hopper, none of the Republicans have actually done anything personally scandalous.  They simply voted for Gov. Walker's anti-worker crap.  People forget how rare recall elections are, and especially how rare successful ones are.  We are also facing a bunch of experienced Republican incumbents who won in 2008, not random teabaggers who were dragged in to light-blue seats in 2010 by the red tide last year.  There was an illuminating chart posted a while back showing that aside from Kapanke, most of the low-hanging fruit in districts that Obama won by 10 points or more aren't even up for recall until next year.

      You think this year is exciting?  Just wait for 2012.

  •  I also have to say that (0+ / 0-)

    while the goal is to flip the senate, the real goal is for each district to be represented in the legislature. Thus, if Kapanke loses to Shilling, it will be because he didn't listen to his constituents. And so forth.

  •  I wanted to voice my concerns. (0+ / 0-)

    I did not mind it so much when we did the money thing that one special time for Scott McAdams. However, I fell that now we are associated with Kos we should really stay above the fray. I think it takes some of the bite away from the Kos Elections mission statement when we solicit money. The mantra is politics not policy and asking for money over a policy difference is a little to much in my opinion.

    TX-13, Male, 22, SSP: buff2011

    by buff2011 on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 08:49:29 PM PDT

    •  Right now, it's a matter of principle (0+ / 0-)

      The discussion is all politics, but the people here support Democrats because of policy. In principle, I think the reasons behind the recalls is extraordinary enough for campaign donations to be encouraged.

      25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 08:57:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Are they really though? (0+ / 0-)

        I think every one know that there are recall elections. I think discussing the poll is great. Soliciting donations does not fit the mission statement that has been adopted since we moved to Kos.  

        TX-13, Male, 22, SSP: buff2011

        by buff2011 on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 09:05:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you need to take a closer look (7+ / 0-)

          At SSP's history. McAdams was not a special, one-time thing. We've endorsed and raised money for candidates for many, many years, going all the way back to 2004 (Jon Tester, Travis Childers, Jim Martin, etc.). And the recalls do not reflect some mere "policy difference." SSP was always a progressive site (just like DK is), and these races go to the very core of our mission.

          I'm pretty confident in our ability to judge races fairly and still remain active partisans. I'm a partisan whether I raise money for a candidate or not, and I want Democrats to win whether I'm raising money for a candidate or not.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:15:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see how it's any different (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Nickers, itskevin

          Then when David did it back at SSP for Scott McAdams or Jim Martin. And this was originally posted for the front page and reposted to DKE.

  •  By the way.... (0+ / 0-)

    Shame on the DPW for NOT contesting Kapanke back in 2008.  How stupid was that!

    Anyway, what's this about Olsen being weaker than Harsdorf in the opinion of some of the people here?

    Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

    by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 08:58:14 PM PDT

  •  WI-8 Alberta Darling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, TheUnknown285

    My current assessment of the nine recalls is the most important is that of Senator Alberta Darling, sure hope the polling focus lands on her (and Robert Cowles Senate 8 seat).  Here are my reasons:

    1.  Alberta Darling is Chair of the Budget Committee and she owns the Walker Budget.
    2.  Alberta Darling has completely embraced and endorsed the Ryan Budget plan.  She is on film gushing with admiration for the Ryan budget plan.  She practically wrote our commercials for us.
    3.  Mike Tate, State Dem Chair has stated the recalls will focus on the Walker/Ryan plan rather than a narrower focus on collective bargaining rights which focuses more attention on Darling's fate.
    4.  Darling's district is trending purple so strongly, the current version of the GOP redistricting plan splices it onto Gwen Moore's black majority House district in central Milwaukee.

    I honestly believe Alberta Darling is the canary in the coal mine predicting the vulnerability of Paul Ryan who is facing his first serious foe in Rob Zerban since he initially won the seat in 1998.  Darling falls, and the toxicity of the Walker/Ryan budget plans will be confirmed and Paul Ryan will have no where to hide.  

     

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 09:45:07 PM PDT

    •  Ok, but what do you make of these polls? (0+ / 0-)

      Also, some upthread say Olsen may be more vulnerable than Harsdor.  Do you agree?

      Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 09:46:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  since you ask (5+ / 0-)

        Here is my current understanding/reading of the Senate recalls you ask about.

        Kapanke is toast.  His plan is to hope state workers sleep in and don't vote.  Sure Loser.

        Hopper stands alone this time, he eked out victory last time on the statewide red tide.  He needs to create his own tide and unless that mistress of his is the ultimate consultant, no Hopper tide is on the horizon at this time.  But, Hopper is no Olson, he is sharp, on message, and seems to have decent campaigning skills.  If his personal life had not exploded like it has this would be a different race.  This district is in very purple territory so whichever party generates the best campaign here should narrowly win this recall.  Game on.

        I happen to agree Luther Olson is in a world of trouble.  I am in Madison and I heard my first anti-Fred Clark radio ad today, it referenced that run-on taped comment about Clark wanting to knock sense into a Teabagger woman.  But Luther Olson has a touch of what I call the Goofball factor, he creates problems for himself with his big mouth.  The GOP reportedly blanched at their own polling data for the Olson seat, which is the reason they are running those anti-Clark radio ads in Dane County, they are freaking about Olson's fate.  I have voted in Dane County for 32 years now and have never heard ads for that Senate District, ever, until today.  Olson is known for his likeability not his political operation and I do see him as vulnerable to a blue tide unless the Koch borthers are able to throw him a lifeline.

        And Tommy Thompson let slip that GOP polling had Harsdorf ahead 48 to 47 a statistical toss up.  So PPP polling either caught the impact of the American Crossroads spending, or the race is simply a toss up that will be won by voter turnout on the ground, and in the recalls I have to think the momentum is ours.  Walker is not going up in the polls after all.  

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:22:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Olsen has been talking more moderate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades

        but he has towed the line on voting with the GOP majority. The problem is that no one is reporting his votes.

        "We are slow to realize that democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ~ "Fighting Bob" - Robert M. LaFollette Sr.

        by Sand Hill Crane on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:28:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yes here is an example (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, zett, itskevin, KingofSpades

          When the Walker position on collective bargaining was first announced, Olson is on tape stating how radical Walker's collective bargaining plans appeared to be.  As you correctly point out, Olson then proceeded to vote with Walker on every Budget roll call vote.  Olson later pretended he did not support all of the Walker budget agenda, in other words, read his lips, not his voting record, lol.

          "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

          by walja on Tue Jun 28, 2011 at 10:35:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Olsen's district includes Baraboo, which is within (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          zett, itskevin

          commuting distance to the Madison area in Dane, County. The economy in Dane County, both public sector and private sectors have been hit hard by the cuts to the public employee workers (in the form of contributions to benefits and retirement, but they still get about 12% less take home pay, before taxes). So, his district includes Columbia and Sauk counties, close to Dane county on the south. I believe that Waupon, is also in Olsen's district. There is a state prison there. The prison guards are state employees, who are pretty angry, from everything I have heard from them. They are really on the front lines in the prisons and feel unappreciated and do need unions.

      •  Link to article about recalls in various districts (0+ / 0-)

        http://host.madison.com/...

        (I should warn you that Capitol times is pretty progressive, however, it has been correct on much of the budget repair bill information)

    •  Honnestly, I can't see Darling (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, neaguy, TofG

      being more than Icing on the Cake. At this point, I feel like the chances of flipping go something like this:

      Kapanke > Hopper > Olsen > Cowles > Darling > Harsdorf

      (although I'm sorta unsure on the order of the last three, I think they're all tilt / lean R)

      Also, while  Darling's north shore suburbs are certainly terding blue, The district is liable to get redder under any plausible restricting scheme due to population loss in Milwaukee

      If republicans manage to ram through a redistricting plan before the recalls like it looks like they're trying to now, they will certainly have an easy time nuking the district.

      It'd certainly be a symbolic victory, though.

  •  REMBER (0+ / 0-)

    Walker and his REPUBLICANS controle all the voting in the STATE from what I hear and READ he and THE REPUBLICANS are not going to let all of the DEMOCRATS VOTE.  What can be done about this?  HE and the REPUBLICANS  always have another card up there SLEAVE.

    •  from out of state (5+ / 0-)

      I actually look at these polls in a new light with a  bit of sleep.  We all wanted this to be easy, but I remember thinking way back in March that it seemed like a waste of time to try to recall Harsdorf, and I remember some people from Wisc. saying that it wasn't worth the effort.  And now she's neck and neck with a total new comer.

      Also, local races are local - there are some personal loyalties that hold strong.  It may not be "wingnuts", but people who just happen to know Harsdorf.  

      We have sections of Mass., blue as it is, that are very red and if a Dem polled within range of winning, we'd all be cheering and running out there to help with GOTV.  I suspect that may be the case here:  some out-of-staters who don't know squat about these districts want a sudden Democratic uprising from Rep. districts and it's just not realistic.  

      You guys are doing a great job.  We are with you.  In 2010, all the Mass. polls were off by 5-8 points, all in favor of the Dems.  A bunch of our folks we're poling 50-50 and they won handily.   I really believe those cell phone users tend to be blue.  

      And the petitions will be a goldmine when it comes to GOTV time.   Scott Walker and the TP are crazy to think this has blown over.  If all they have is negative TV ads, then they may be in more trouble than they think.  Think of every negative ad as  a GOTV phone call to a Dem.

      •  You're right, it's a game of inches (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        buckybadger1988

        There is certainly a great risk of relative myopia--which I've been guilty of in the past--wherein we assume that there's more public opinion on our side of an issue, or in some cases, less, than there really is.

        Given how polarized the state is currently, especially regarding Walker, many people have already made up their minds, and it's no longer just about issues, but it's about getting people to newly take our side or to switch from the other side to our side.

  •  How will redistricting affect this? (0+ / 0-)

    What are the chances that the Republicans will be able to throw nine monkey-wrenches into these recall elections before they occur?

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