Public Policy Polling (6/16-19, Montana voters, Nov. 2010 in parens):
Jon Tester (D-inc): 45 (46)
Denny Rehberg (R): 47 (48)
Undeciced: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Even though Denny Rehberg hadn't actually entered the race the last time PPP checked in with Montana, nothing has changed since then. Not only is the head-to-head spread the same, Jon Tester's job approval is almost identical (51-39 now vs. 50-40 then). Rehberg's numbers can't be directly compared, since PPP previously asked for favorables, but his new approvals are decidedly less bouncy than Tester's: 44-45.
I can't say that any of this is surprising, since the campaign hasn't really been joined yet. It'll be a long time before the ad wars commence, so for now, it's mostly just a battle of press releases and earned media over things like wolves and swipe fees. It's also far from clear which issues are likely to blow up, and who will draw the most blood. But I do think it's reasonable to believe that this race will stay tight for quite some time - perhaps all the way until election day.
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