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Nobody was particularly expecting the 3rd Day of Redistmas (with Illinois and California being the first two) to come out of Michigan, a state where the Republicans control the redistricting trifecta thanks to Rick Sndyer's gubernatorial win and flipping the state House. As a result, the map that we're seeing today, proposed by the Senate GOP, is likely to be at least reasonably close to the final result, unless something odd happens in conference between them and the House GOP.

You can click on the map above for a closer look, and better yet, look at the full pdf, which also includes detail maps of the Detroit metropolitan area and a full list of what counties (and, where counties are split, what townships and cities) go in what districts.

The net result, as expected by virtually all observers, is a loss of one Democratic seat (and no Republican seats), solidifying the map at 9 R and 5 D. The two Dems who get pitted against each other are MI-09's Gary Peters and MI-12's Sandy Levin. This may turn into a big primary: 79-year-old Levin seems bent on running again, while Peters has been doing some active fundraising too (although he's floated other possibilities too, like a potential run for Oakland Co. Executive).

The winner gets a district that's pretty safely Democratic, spanning the lower reaches of both suburban Macomb and Oakland Counties, areas that have gotten significantly more African-American over the last decade as families have been moving out of Detroit. However, the biggest African-American node in the suburbs, Pontiac, as well as several other AA suburbs, like Southfield and Royal Oak, are now part of MI-14, thanks to a strange-looking tendril designed to preserve an African-American majority in both Detroit-based districts. MI-13 is 56.73% African-American and MI-14 is 58.46%, so, in doing so, this map probably steers clear of any VRA problems. (It does take the once-compact 14th and turn it hideously ugly, but that's nothing new in the world of gerrymandering.)

Some other observations:

• Republican frosh Dan Benishek gets a slightly safer MI-01, which now takes in Grand Traverse County (Traverse City).
• MI-03 gets a bit more Democratic and just weirder, as Dem ex-Rep.'s Mark Schauer's hometown of Battle Creek is now here instead of in MI-07 (where he lost in 2010). Could we see Schauer run against uncooperative GOP freshman Justin Amash, and is this an attempt by the state GOP to smackdown Amash while protecting the 7th's Tim Walberg?
• In MI-07, the net result hasn't changed much: hard-right GOPer Walberg loses blueish Battle Creek, but gains the rural parts of Washtenaw County (though not Ann Arbor proper, which still belongs to John Dingell) and also swingy but Dem-friendly Monroe County,
• MI-08 doesn't change much for Mike Rogers, although he picks up some of the GOP-friendly exurban parts of Oakland Co. MI-11 seems to get a bit friendlier for Thad McCotter (or for Marty Knollenberg, if McCotter continues to keep wandering off the reservation). MI-10 stays safe for Candice Miller, with the rural Thumb balancing out the Reagan Dems of Macomb Co.
• The Dean of the House, John Dingell, seems to be all set for another decade, if his health keeps up. The new solidly-Dem MI-12 is tailor-made for him, linking up Ann Arbor with Dearborn (which used to be in John Conyers' district). Likewise, fellow old-timer Dale Kildee gets a safer MI-05, which takes in all of Genesee Co. (home of Flint) and now all of blue-collar Bay City.



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 12:10 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Might MI-14 be a racial Gerrymander? (4+ / 0-)

    58.46% is higher than necessary to avoid dilution issues and it certainly could be kept majority Black without the Pontiac tail.

    •  Possibly (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but I'm not sure if it's gerrymandered-looking enough to be vulnerable to a lawsuit.  More consistent lines would probably weaken McCotter or Rogers by putting Pontiac into their districts.  As it stands, it must be especially cold in Oakland County, as they gave it a new pair (or more?) of earmuffs.

      Do Conyers and Clarke switch district numbers?

    •  nah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      because it can be justified as purely a partisan gerrymander

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:23:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not really (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The adjacent 9th is a Democratic vote sink also. The only justificiation for the shape of the 14th is race.

        30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

        by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 08:12:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If that's right, then it may have to withstand (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          strict scrutiny.

          That's pretty hard!  

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 08:23:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  "Only" might be too strong (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, MichaelNY, koolbens

            Since, after all, race has correlations with partisanship.

            But you do have an African-American-majority Democratic vote sink curling around a white-majority Democratic vote sink in order to pick a African-American-majority city (Pontiac) that isn't strictly needed to get to African-American-majority status for the district.

            It even goes through relatively more African-American suburbs to get to Pontiac. If it took the more direct route to Pontiac instead curling west like it does, it would be going through ~5% African-American territory instead of ~15% African-American territory.

            30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

            by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 10:08:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              That region is about as segregated as anywhere in the country, so these things do matter.

              If the Republicans were smarter, they would have traded blackness for compactness. And given that there are plenty of super democratic precincts around, it wouldn't have been so hard. Maybe they're angling for votes from black legislators?

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 10:21:28 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe on the state leg map (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY
                Maybe they're angling for votes from black legislators?

                The state senate map certainly seems to be. Even though Detroit basically has all of the net population loss in Wayne County, they sliced up all of the innermost suburbs with random sections of Detroit to maintain the same number of AA-majority districts and axed a white-majority suburban Democratic district instead.

                I haven't looked at the state house map yet.

                30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

                by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 10:36:35 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Incidentally, these are the two most Dem districts (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dufffbeer, MichaelNY, bozepravde15

              I could get in the region while respecting the cores of the originals:

              Detroit Max Dem

              13th (Pink): Obama 87%, McCain 12%, Black 59%, White 29%, Dem Av 79%, Rep Av 21%

              14th (Olive): Obama 88%, McCain 11%, Black 54%, White 37%, Dem Av 80%, Rep Av 20%

              I didn't note the racial data until after I was finished.

              Ok, so I read the polls.

              by andgarden on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 09:39:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  It is racially and politically motivated. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, koolbens

      They took Oakland County, the biggest county in the state, divided it into four pieces, and NOT A ONE OF THEM belongs to an elected official that LIVES in Oakland County.   They stripped us of all representation.   Do you know how much this sucks?  

      Our only hope is that the recall succeeds, and we put the fear of god into them.  If not, MI is just the canary int he coal mine for the rest of the country.

      If you don't stand for something, eventually you stand for nothing.

      by dkmich on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 04:10:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wow (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        koolbens, MichaelNY

        I didn't even realize that not one of the representatives currently in office would be from Oakland County.  Wow.

        I rarely ever agree with L. Brooks Patterson about a damn thing, but he's hopping mad, and now I see exactly why.  This is just ridiculous to divide the second most populated county in the state into four and not one of the existing incumbents lives in the place.

        That might change after Knollenberg gets his hands at this, but that'd still only be one.  The 13th and 14th could have been in configured in such a way to still respect the VRA, and not have do what they did to Oakland County.

        •  Oakland (0+ / 0-)

          Any chance Oakland county legislators might oppose this? Chances are at least the 11th will be repped by someone from Oakland if McCotter does not run again.

          SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 08:25:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hmmm... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            dkmich

            You know, I don't know.  The legislative Republicans seem to be a pretty tight clique, much tighter than I expected them to be even though they have members to spare (particularly in the state senate).

            Yeah, if conventional wisdom is right, if McCotter chooses not to run, then Knollenberg in Troy will almost be assured the seat.  That said, Livonia in Wayne County has always been the base for a whole host of political families and machines in Metro Detroit both Democratic and Republican, mostly because it's the largest citiy in the district.  With Livonia still being in the district, I'd not be surprised to see a former mayor or state legislature take a run at the seat and seriously contest it.

            Adding Troy to it, though, definitely changes the dynamics as Troy is a very wealthy city of 80,000.  Still, Troy's demographics have change quite a bit over the decade.  It's now something like 20% Asian, so if the right Dem ran in the district, it seems there is another base of support to try and pull from.

        •  I am as liberal as they come, and (0+ / 0-)

          I always vote for L. Brooks.  We are fiscally sound, and he's no dummy.   He has taken his fair share of swipes at Engler and the "brown shirts" as he calls the flaming assholes that make up his party.   The reason he didn't run for Governor is because he's "too liberal" for them.   We really need to hope the recall works and puts the fear of god into someone.  I'm sick to death of bat shit crazy, corrupt, and Wall Street owned politicians.   Time for a big non-partisan "kiss my ass" recall/primary campaign.  

          If you don't stand for something, eventually you stand for nothing.

          by dkmich on Mon Jun 20, 2011 at 02:37:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Battle Creek (6+ / 0-)

    Was almost certainly put in MI-03 to keep Schauer from running against Walberg.  Schauer is being put in a district that is almost entirely new to him.  I doubt it's to 'punish' Amash.

    •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, koolbens

      I don't get where this meme is coming from that the state GOP doesn't like Amash, either.  This was clearly to take out Walberg's biggest opponent, though, I'm pretty thoroughly convinced Schauer was for real after the election when he said that he's done with running for Congress.  This just kind of closes the door on him if he had any ideas of getting back in.

      •  Amash... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dougymi, MichaelNY

        May or may not be that popular in Lansing (he did beat several more "establishment" candidates in the 2010 primary), but he has lots of friends in Grand Rapids among the local financial elite. As long as the DeVos family, for example, openly supports him, God himself could endorse Amash's opponent in a Republican primary and it wouldn't make a difference. Huizenga probably has a better chance of being primaried than Amash.

        MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

        by koolbens on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 12:48:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, borodino21, koolbens

          That was kind of my point.  Though, Betsy is long gone from being the party chair, that family still pretty much owns the Michigan GOP.  So long as he has their support, everyone else can be as mad as they want to be, but I honestly don't believe there's some kind of vendetta in the legislature to purposefully draw him into a less friendly district.  Even if there was, placing Battle Creek with Grand Rapids hardly makes this a Dem district, and I'm not even sure if it makes it a competitive one.

  •  Peters (4+ / 0-)

    When the draft map was leaked, I said that Peters should just run against McCotter in MI-11. The new MI-09 is essentially MI-12 plus a bit of the old MI-09, I don't see how he beats Levin in a primary. It would be tough to beat McCotter in his shored-up district, but I have to imagine it would be easier than beating Levin.

    •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      Though McCotter is probably not seeking re-election, so it would be against Marty Knollenberg, the son of the guy he beat to get his seat in the first place.

    •  Peters would not win.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, borodino21

      If he ran in the 11th. It basically picked up the most Republican parts of Oakland outside of the portions attached to the 8th, and the only portions of the 11th that are in the still-extant 9th are still marginally Republican. Dems would be better off running a Democrat from the Wayne County portion of the district, and Peters running for something else or leaning on national Democrats to lean on Levin to retire.

      MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

      by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:35:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope not (0+ / 0-)

        I think Levin is the better choice so I hope he doesn't retire this year.  I would prefer Peters give it a try in the 11th (or run for county executive).  It will be tough but the Dems need to run someone.  I'm not sure if there's a strong candidate from Wayne county.  They took Westland out of the 11th, probably making unlikely state senator Glenn Anderson will run in the district.  Peters seems like the best candidate, as of now.  

    •  Peters is mine, and he's a sell out. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He "urged" Obama to extend the Bush tax cuts so he could pander to his "upper income" constituents.   He's so bought into blue dog, who needs him.   The Levins, oth, are both worth their weight in gold.   They are from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.  

      If you don't stand for something, eventually you stand for nothing.

      by dkmich on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 04:13:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Peters (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Peters serves his district well considering how tenuous a grip either party can have one it.  I guess you can have legitimate gripes, but then you could have also had a Republican.  I tend to think of reps like him as having less progressive effect in their voting patterns than they are a base/platform that empowers progressive congresspersons to vote the way they do.

  •  Voting percentages for the 1st district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Obama 49.8%, McCain 48.5%. Average D 45%, R 55%

    I will get the others.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

    by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 12:49:01 PM PDT

    •  For the 5th district (0+ / 0-)

      O 63.0%, M 35.5%
      Avg: D 56.1%, R 43.9%

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

      by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 12:55:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The 2nd district (0+ / 0-)

        O 48.2%, M 50.2%
        Avg: D 36.8%, R 63.2%

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

        by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 12:59:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 6th district (0+ / 0-)

          O 53.2%, M 45.1%
          Avg: D 44.2%, R 55.8%

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

          by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:03:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The 4th district (0+ / 0-)

            O 49.8%, M 48.5%
            Avg: D 42.2%, R 57.8%

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

            by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:11:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  The 3rd district (0+ / 0-)

              O 49.6%, M 48.7%
              Avg: D 39.4%, R 60.6%

              For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

              by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:13:39 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The 7th district (0+ / 0-)

                O 50.9%, M 47.3%
                Avg: D 43.0%, R 57.0%

                88.8% White

                For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

                by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:17:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  . (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  So, in other words, this is not a dummymander at all.

                  21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                  by wwmiv on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:20:29 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  They (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Seem to have most districts around 50% for Obama but he overperformed in Michigan so most of these districts are Republican. The 6th district which voted 53% for Obama is an opportunity if Upton retires though.

                    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

                    by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:22:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  . (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I ignore Obama numbers in Michigan because McCain pulled out/conceded that state. The average Dem/Rep performance is much more telling. I wouldn't even bother to contest the 6th outside of a very Dem year.

                      21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                      by wwmiv on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:25:51 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  The averages (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Went 52.5% Republican.

                        Even Kerry performed better, winning 51% in Michigan.

                        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

                        by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:28:15 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yeah, the averages aren't good either (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          They're the 2006 state executive numbers. Democrats won the governorship, Republicans won the SoS and AG. If you're going to use the numbers in the DRA to eyeball things, take the mean of the 2008 presidential and the 2006 averages.

                          30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

                          by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 08:14:44 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  The 6th... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        Upton has had nothing but sacrificial Democratic lambs run against him since he first won in 1986. If Democrats don't start running serious races against him with national support than they won't have a decent local baseline to work from when he retires or if they do have an extremely good cycle.

                        The 6th is no more ancestrally Republican than the 7th, which Dems not only won in 2008, but also won lots of local seats in the state legislature beginning in the late 90's. Those gains may have been wiped away in 2010, but running a hard race for congress in a district like the 6th that's losing population and changing from a predominately rural, white Dutch and German lower middle-class district to a poorer, rural Hispanic and urban African-American/college district can pay dividends for races down the ballot, which in turn will lead to more competition later on at every level.

                        MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

                        by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:03:45 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Also... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                        This is a district that elected whackos like Clare Hoffman (who opposed mandatory polio vaccinations and water fluoridation and was basically, for all intents and purposes, a fascist) and Mark Siljander until Upton was elected. If a an extremist like Jack Hoogendyk was ever nominated by the Republicans, they wouldn't find be as openly accepted in a general election.

                        MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

                        by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:09:41 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  There are still a few good GOP targets (4+ / 0-)

                    But this is a really bad map for Dems.  McCotter and Walberg's seats still seem vulnerable, and maybe MI-01 possible in a good Dem year with a good recruit.

                •  7th looks (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, MetroGnome

                  easily loseable for walberg

                  18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:24:28 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The 8th district (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  O 52%, M 46.4%
                  Avg: D 40.3%, R 59.7%

                  Also, Lansing had the university turnout and if Obama only got 52% in this district...

                  For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

                  by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:24:52 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's because (4+ / 0-)

                    That's because Livingston County has got to be one of the reddest of the larg-ish counties in the state, or at least outside of West Michigan.  So long as Lansing is attached to Livingston, we'll never have a chance.  Not knowing the previous numbers for the district, just looking at it, it looks like they actually made it more red.

                  •  lost Clinton County too (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    The demographics of which are changing.  Used to be 115% white, now it's a bit less.  Home of the execrable alan cropsy though, one of the bigger con/pub/fundie aholes of the 90s.  He'd give rickie santorum a run for his money in the fundie department.  

                    Rural Clinton county is decidedly publican country, though.  Did quite a bit of canvassing up there, so I've got a little experience with it.  Not sure it's less conservative than the Det.  exurbs though.  Too early to say much more without some data.  

                    A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

                    by dougymi on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 05:46:52 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  That's what I'd like to see (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      dougymi, MichaelNY
                      Not sure it's less conservative than the Det.  exurbs though.

                      That's what I'd like to know.  I live in Ingham, and it'd be my guess that Clinton that Clinton has gotten quite a bit less red than even just a decade ago for the sole fact that the overwhelming majority of growth in the county (the fastest growing in Michigan, BTW) was in suburban Lansing, particularly Bath Township, which grew almost exclusively because of massive new student apartment complexes in the land East Lansing annexed during the decade in the county.  

                      I'm not exactly sure what was picked up in Oakland County that we didn't have before.  I think Rochester Hills was picked up.  

                      But, I don't know the actual numbers.

  •  notes (4+ / 0-)

    3. I don't think it's a coincidence that Amash was the only R incumbent to get a significantly worse district. As a hardcore libertarian he isn't a great fit for a district that's typically been held by moderates like Vern Ehlers, Paul Henry, and Gerald Ford. The brass may figure that he's expendable and they can get a team player in there if he loses in 2012. I also read that MI secretary of state Terri Lynn Land might try to primary him.

    6. Picking up the rest of Allegan should help Upton, moving it to maybe R+1 from dead even.

    8. Rogers' district changes quite a bit, dumping Clinton and the southern half of Shiawassee (marginal areas) for parts of northeastern Oakland which are more reliably red if I'm not mistaken.

    SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 01:07:40 PM PDT

    •  Being from NE Oakland, I can say for certain (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Red as a ruby.  :-/

      •  more red than Clinton? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Possibly but I kind of think it's 6 of one, half dozen of the other.  Clinton Co. is red as a beet.  Sounds like a good trade off for the jerkwad rogers.

        A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

        by dougymi on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 05:49:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dougymi, MichaelNY

          I'd bet that the northern tier of Oakland County is at least now more red than Clinton County as a whole.  I did a post just above describing how much Clinton has changed just over the decade.  Still red, but trending toward the other direction.  Most of the growth was MSU students and younger adults.

          •  yah... probably as a whole it is. (0+ / 0-)

            Dewitt is a bit less pub than it used to be.  It's still a damn red county.

            A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

            by dougymi on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:13:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not DeWitt (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dougymi

              DeWitt Township had significant, growth, but the vast majority of the growth occured in exurban Bath County, specifically the portion that was annexed by East Lansing in the past few years.  Giant student apartment complexes where built up that way, as well as some dense subdivisions aimed as attracting young adults and graduate students.

              Again, I'd bet Clinton County is far less red that the rural northern tier of Oakland County.  It's still red, but the question was whether the loss of Clinton County and addition of even more of northern Oakland County make it more or less Republican.  My guess is that it makes it not just more red, but the trend in this new secton of Oakland County is not trending towards Dems like it was is in Clinton County.

  •  It's an ugly map (6+ / 0-)

    Probably the best the MI GOP could hope for.  That being said there is still hope for some Dem gains.  Especially so since the MI GOP and Snyder seem to be very unpopular going into 2012.

  •  The 1st... (8+ / 0-)

    Will almost certainly be more competitive than it seems most people are treating it as right now. 2010 was a perfect storm; an open congressional seat that between 1933 and 2011 has only sent a Democrat to congress for 26 years (when it was the 11th instead of the 1st, most of that from 1933 to 1939 and Stupak's 18 years in Congress), a Republican from the traditionally Democratic Western U.P. (53-45 Obama, 53-47 Dem average) and a Republican from the traditionally Republican Eastern U.P. (50-48 McCain, 56-44 Repub average), and the only other marquee races blowout Republican wins for governor and every other statewide office.

    With a presidential race leading the ballot, several state house seats that are low-hanging fruit for the Democrats, and pretty much every local county office in most of the U.P's counties (i.e. sheriff, drain commissioner, etc.) held by Democrats, ballot splitting will be much lower, and Benishek will have to hope Republican turnout in Northern Michigan and the new territory added to his district will be strong. Depends on the Democratic nominee; if Dems are smart they won't fuck up again by being cute and nominating a Democrat from Northern Michigan or the Eastern U.P.

    MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

    by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:29:13 PM PDT

  •  Dems may not have the votes... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, borodino21, Rustbelt Dem

    In Michigan to stall or delay this map, but if a single one of them votes for this thing than they should find a different profession than politics. The only saving grace (besides the feeble attempt to strengthen the 6th and delay the inevitable) is that they didn't screw around with Dingell. It would have been easy to place his home in Dearborn into one of the AA majority districts and really mess around with the Dems the same way Republicans in Texas are with the few remaining white Dems in urban areas.

    MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

    by koolbens on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 02:39:23 PM PDT

    •  They (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      koolbens, MichaelNY

      screwed around with Dingell last time, putting East Dearborn in Conyers district and pitting him against Lynn Rivers for Ann Arbor.  Now that was a nasty primary battle, reminiscent of some of the ones around here.

      Agree with us on everything / Or we won't help with anything / That kind of attitude / Just makes a split grow wider - Dead Kennedys

      by Rustbelt Dem on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:38:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In DRA... (9+ / 0-)


    Michigan


    Detroit

    My numbers:
    MI-01 (Benishek): 50% Obama 48% McCain R+3
    MI-02 (Huizenga): 48% Obama 50% McCain R+6
    MI-03 (Amash): 50% Obama 49% McCain R+5
    MI-04 (Camp): 50% Obama 49% McCain R+3
    MI-05 (Kildee): 63% Obama 35% McCain D+10
    MI-06 (Upton): 53% Obama 45% McCain R+1
    MI-07 (Walberg): 51% Obama 47% McCain R+3
    MI-08 (Rogers): 52% Obama 46% McCain R+2
    MI-09 (Peters/Levin): 58% Obama 40% McCain D+5
    MI-10 (Miller): 48% Obama 50% McCain R+5
    MI-11 (McCotter): 50% Obama 48% McCain R+4
    MI-12 (Dingell): 67% Obama 32% McCain D+14
    MI-13 (Clarke): 84% Obama 15% McCain D+31
    MI-14 (Conyers): 81% Obama 19% McCain D+29

    Old numbers:
    MI-01 (Benishek): 50% Obama 48% McCain R+3
    MI-02 (Huizenga): 48% Obama 51% McCain R+7
    MI-03 (Amash): 49% Obama 49% McCain R+6
    MI-04 (Camp): 50% Obama 48% McCain R+3
    MI-05 (Kildee): 64% Obama 35% McCain D+11
    MI-06 (Upton): 54% Obama 45% McCain EVEN
    MI-07 (Walberg): 52% Obama 46% McCain R+2
    MI-08 (Rogers): 53% Obama 46% McCain R+2
    MI-09 (Peters): 56% Obama 43% McCain D+2
    MI-10 (Miller): 48% Obama 50% McCain R+5
    MI-11 (McCotter): 54% Obama 45% McCain EVEN
    MI-12 (Levin): 65% Obama 33% McCain D+12
    MI-13 (Clarke): 85% Obama 15% McCain D+31
    MI-14 (Conyers): 86% Obama 14% McCain D+24
    MI-15 (Dingell): 66% Obama 33% McCain D+13

  •  As a Michigander (5+ / 0-)

    This is easily the worst gerrymander I've ever seen for congressional district.  Michigan has a partisan history of drawing maps, as with just about any other state, but they've always tried to keep districts in counties, and not draw up along irregular city borders.

    While I admit the exodus from Detroit doesn't give either party man options to draw districts because of the VRA, even just looking over to the new 3rd shows you how ridiculous that this is, that they drew it along the irregular western and southern border of the city of Grand Rapids.  Bringing the 11th around so McCotter can get Republican Troy is also very unusual for Michigan.

    Politically, the map doesn't change much.  In fact, I think Dems have about a good a chance as they've ever had in the last two redistrictings.  But, from the logical drawing of districts, this has got to be one of the most cynical and the worst.

  •  Expected, but it's workable (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    MI-1, MI-3 and MI-7 should be on the target list, just for the fact that we must aggressively play the field in order to have chance at winning the House. The only reversal is one from McCain to Obama, which is quite an interesting move.

    Over time, it will be worth watching how shifts from Detroit into the suburbs effect voting patterns.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 04:15:09 PM PDT

    •  What worries me (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is that the fast growing areas like outer Oakland county and livingston county are republican so the republican districts can move out to them.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/

      by Alibguy on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 04:28:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  MI-3? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I agree that MI-1 and MI-7 are both worth contesting (7 is still a classic swing district), but why do folks keep bringing in MI-3?  That's fool's gold, if you ask me.  I'd say that MI-6 would be more likely to flip, and that one's not likely, either.  MI-3 is only going from R-6 to R-5.

  •  Dummymander? (0+ / 0-)

    I think Michigan could be to the next decade what Pennsylvania was to the last, a overly aggresive republican map that spreads a lot of suburban seats too thin and results in large Dem gains in a strong year. Come to think of it, Pennsylvania might end up doing that as well.

    If we have any intention of trying to take back the majority next year then we cannot let R+1 or R+2 districts go unchallenged. Btw Virg Bernero, the Michigan Senate minority leader Gretchen Whitmer, and 3 state reps all live in the 8th.

    •  No, and PA was not a dummymander (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      The term dummymander is badly overstated.  Gerrymanders almost always work out well for the party drawing the map.  Even Pennsylvania was not a dummymander as many people claim.

      Pre-2002 redistricting: 11R/10D
      2002: 12R/7D
      2004: 12R/7D
      2006: 11D/8R
      2008: 12D/7R
      2010: 12R/7D

      I believe repubs were shooting for 13R/6R with the 2002 re-map but they never dislodged Holden.  Still, for 3 of the 5 elections in the decade the PA gerrymander worked as expected for the GOP, and here we are a decade later with only 7 of 19 seats in Dem hands despite being a majority in PA.  The term dummymander is badly overstated when it comes to PA.

      •  They also wanted to flip PA-13 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But completely failed in doing that.  

        Besides that, the purpose of a state being gerrymandered isn't just to max out seats, its to ensure as many safe seats for the gerrymandering party as possible, in order to assure massive house seniority accrues to the state's delegation.  

      •  PA sure was a dummymander (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The movement from 2004 to 2008 is all you need to say so.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 06:07:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually it did work (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It gave republicans a solid majority in the House delegation for 6 of 10 years in the decade.  Without the gerrymander Dems would have scored even more than the 11/8 and 12/7 majorities they held in 2006 and 2008.  I suppose they could have played it safer in 2002 and created a less republican map that could have kept them at something like 10R/9D throughout the decade, but the map they did draw held up remarkably well.  In the end republicans still managed to hold a 12/7 edge in House seats, same as they had in 2002.

          •  The mistakes they made were legion (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            But really: they gave John Murtha a Democratic sink, all the while trying to translate Borski and Hoeffel into a Republican seat. That second part cost them one incumbent (Gekas) and allowed them to draw one shaky new district (the 6th).

            There's more to say, but the whole plan was supposedly--and stupidly--based on Rick Santorum's 2000 win.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 06:29:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  It doesn't scream dummymander to me (5+ / 0-)

      Michigan Republicans have drawn a very effective map with what they had to go with.  They certainly weren't going to sacrifice one of their seats to make some others stronger.  

      However, IF Schauer had won in 2010, Republicans may have been forced to concede that he was too strong to ever beat, so they could've drawn him a safe district in Kalamazoo, Calhoun, Eaton, and Lansing that is 61% Obama and would help strengthen 3, 6, and 8.  This would turn both 6 and 8 into [barely] McCain districts.  Unfortuntely, Schauer was not strong enough in 2010 and Republicans are still competitive in the 7th.

      •  If Schauer won in 2010... (6+ / 0-)

        Republicans concede MI-07 to Schauer and put Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Lansing in the same district.  The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 8th all become safer, with the 6th and the 8th getting about 5 points more Republican.

        Changes:
        MI-02: 48% Obama 51% McCain R+7
        MI-03: 49% Obama 49% McCain R+6
        MI-04: 50% Obama 49% McCain R+4
        MI-06: 49% Obama 49% McCain R+5
        MI-07: 61% Obama 38% McCain D+8
        MI-08: 47% Obama 51% McCain R+7

  •  Can 11 and 14 both cross from Wayne to Oakland? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    There was lots of discussion about Michigan only allowing 1 district to cross a particular county line.

    Did the collective 'we' ever decide whether that was law or simply tradition?

    •  It's both, in a sense (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, MichaelNY, koolbens

      Michigan's redistricting standards are law, but at the statutory level. Redistricting plans are also statutes, so as the more recently passed legislation, they'll take priority over the standards.

      So far as I understand it, they'd be used by the courts if we had a court-drawn map, but they don't actually restrain the legislature.

      That said, the maps more-or-less do abide by the standards. The point you bring up is the only violation on the Congressional map; I only found one violation on the state senate map. You'd think that if they were going to violate them, they'd just flat-out ignore them; but for the most part, they demurred.

      30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

      by borodino21 on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 09:52:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-12 (0+ / 0-)

    The western part Dearborn is in Dingell's current district.

    Agree with us on everything / Or we won't help with anything / That kind of attitude / Just makes a split grow wider - Dead Kennedys

    by Rustbelt Dem on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:26:34 AM PDT

  •  I wouldn't (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, koolbens

    give up on MI-1.  IIRC, that district looks a lot like the old version (1990-2000) of Stupak's district.  

    Much of the UP resembles non-Waukesha County Wisconsin, and even Traverse City isn't Walberg-esque GOP.

    Agree with us on everything / Or we won't help with anything / That kind of attitude / Just makes a split grow wider - Dead Kennedys

    by Rustbelt Dem on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 07:30:38 AM PDT

  •  Kind of like Upstate NY 10 years ago (0+ / 0-)

    They split the state into as many barely-Republican districts as possible. And then over the next 10 years the Democrats ended up winning every single one of those districts at some point.

  •  This is the most ridiculous map ever in my state (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koolbens

    The maps around Metro Detroit are awful, and they could've achieved the same with saner lines. The 13th should've been drawn northward and the 14th taking more of Detroit.

    Furthermore, as a resident on the Farmington Hills-Farmington border (and Farmington resides inside of Farmington Hills), I can't believe if I crossed my street, I would have a different congressman. What the fuck?!

    I will respect the Republican Party the day they decide to start respecting all Americans....therefore, I will never respect the Republican Party.

    by wolverinethad on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 04:00:02 PM PDT

  •  Who left off the UP? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries

    Republicans: if they only had a heart.

    by leu2500 on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 05:48:53 PM PDT

  •  You've pissed off a big chunk of Michiganders by (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    historys mysteries

    omitting the Upper Peninsula.  I bet the right wing won't make that mistake.

  •  What about the UP? (0+ / 0-)

    From what I recall, it's pretty solidly red, except perhaps for Marquette.  Then again, are there even enough people there to justify a congressional district.

    Sunlight is the best disinfectant

    by historys mysteries on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 05:54:48 PM PDT

  •  The Michigan House needed to be held by Dems (0+ / 0-)

    Failure to keep the majority there and in Ohio and Pennsylvania will hurt us for the next decade.  

  •  For you Michiganders (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is Romney unpopular enough to kill the freakin' meme that he's a "local"? Or, to put it another way, did the recent labor union hatefest help any in that regard?

    •  Not sure (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Egalitare, newdem1960, koolbens, MichaelNY

      Not sure whether he's viewed as locally or not has much to do with popularity.  What I do know is that he played sane enough back in the 08 primaries to attract the kind of Republicans Michigan Republicans like.  I don't doubt he could win the primary here, again, especially with the insane field the GOP is currently running.  The only other Republican running at the moment who I could see playing in this state is Pawlenty.  The rest are far too far to the right to win GOP voters in places like suburban Detroit.

      I do think his stabbing Michigan in the back a few months after he won the primary kind of killed his chances of winning a general election, here, though.  There wouldn't be any kind of Dem crossover, and probably very little independent crossover, which is the only way a Republican could win this state in a presidential election.

    •  Maybe, and yes. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      newdem1960, MichaelNY

      Depends on if Mitt decides to follow Pawlenty and ride the Right-to-Work/Boeing-NRLB stuff hard, which I fail to see how he won't be forced to if the heat starts to turn up on him in the Republican primary. His schizophrenia on the auto-bailout will probably hurt any "local image" he has left. As it is, he hasn't really lived in Michigan since 1965, and went to private school while being raised by parents who grew up in Utah; that's why he really doesn't have a Michigan accent or speak with an upper-Midwestern inflection in his voice, for example. Not that there's anything wrong with that, I just think the "favorite son" meme among some pundits is overblown.

      MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

      by koolbens on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 09:49:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That's exactly the way not to go about politics in Michigan, even with Republicans.  Michigan, as I'm sure you know, is a state where even if Republicans aren't crazy about unions, they are far less hostile to them than even just the states to the south.  Coming into Michigan railing against unions isn't the sure way to win a Republican primary here, at all, especially if you go into suburban Detroit.  Not to even mention how ambivalent (as opposed to hostile) dependent voters are here towards them.  And then there is Snyder who kind of came right in at the beginning and said he doesn't want to start arguing about Right-to-Work, and the legislature hasn't made a peep about it, yet.  

        Did I misread you?

        •  That is a bad way to win in Michigan... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But I was referring to mostly the pressure Romney may face nationally to take an anti-union stance, and how that might trickle down and effect his local image. Like in the Republican debate, where Pawlenty said he would sign a right-to-work law because he wants "choices" for working people (meat packing, etc.), but tried to sound a protectionist-ish call on trade deals. Sorry if there was any confusion about that or anything else. I'm not sure you misread me, I was just arguing it would be a negative and thought it was an implicit since he might be forced to directly state, like Pawlenty did, he's in favor of national Right-to-Work, it would be with the connotation that, politically, he would only have to for the national Republican primary.

          MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

          by koolbens on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 11:01:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And let me say... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I don't think Romney's current "health care reform for some states, right-to-work for others" platform is going to sell. State's rights may be in vogue with certain elements of the Tea Party and in the South, but those voters aren't going to go for Romney anyways, and swing voters are eventually going to wonder why if right-to-work is so great for jobs why he encourages it in New Hampshire, a state where he needs to win a conservative Republican primary electorate over, but not his birthplace of Michigan, with it's double-digit unemployment and, according to him, "failed" car industry. But that's more a general election concern.

             http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/...

            MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20

            by koolbens on Sun Jun 19, 2011 at 11:08:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  City of Farmington lol! (0+ / 0-)

    Hey, did anyone catch how tiny Farmington - nearly surrounded by the entire city of Farmington Hills - is picked off and put in the new 11th? lol  It's probably the most ridiculous parts of the map, mostly because it's so inconsequential in the grand scheme of things.  At its thinnest, it's literally about two or three blocks wide.  This is getting into Chicago-style gerrymandering. lo

    One more thing, since it hasn't been mentioned in the media, I'm assuming that Hansen Clarke lives in the new 13th, but I was always sure he lived on the far lower eastside of Detroit (i.e. East of Grand, South of Mack).  Anyone know where Hansen Clark lives?  Regardless, he has to live at the very eastern edge of this new district, but I know he's an eastsider, and the new district doesn't really go that far east of Woodward.

  •  Upper Peninsula (0+ / 0-)

    Not to be a pain in the arse here, but its a bit insulting to me to see a map of Michigan that is..... not a map of Michigan. While most choose to think of Michigan as a mitten, it is not. There is  1/3rd of the state missing off this map, the entire U.P, an area the size of the state of Maryland. It happens to be where I am from. While it IS all a part of the MI-01, it deserves the respect of being included in the map whenever Michigan is discussed. If we (me) have a hope of turning a tea-tide in this part of the world, the least that people can expect is to be included in the conversation. If a friend points me to this site and says "look, they dont even know we exist", how are they supposed to take me (and thus the progressive view of the world) seriously?

    "there's a fine line between clever and stupid" SPINAL TAP

    by kclala on Sat Jun 18, 2011 at 11:59:50 PM PDT

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