Others will have better analysis later in the redistricting cycle, but with a few large pieces (IL, CA, TX) starting to fall into place and others somewhat predictable I was feeling impatient and decided I wanted to scope out what seats the Democrats would need to pick up to take back the house next year.
I don't know how to do the nifty embed-a-spreadsheet so you'll have to click through here for the full list of seats including Safe D and Safe R. The Lean and Toss-up seats are below. Seats with approved lines are in bold, speculative seats are in italics, those with maps proposed but not approved are in normal text.
Some explanation of assumptions:
Georgia focuses on adding a new GOP seat and incumbent protection, Barrow in GA-12's fate is unclear. Kentucky and Tennessee do incumbent protection, though they may go after Jim Cooper in TN-05. Assuming a 7-1 Maryland map. Assuming something like a 8-4-1 NC map with the swing seat being depending on how aggressively they go after Shuler and Kissell.
Pennsylvania is -1 D, I eliminated PA-12 and numbered down, though they could also go after Altmire. Ohio is -1D, -1R, eliminating OH-13 (drawn with OH-10) and OH-18 (drawn with OH-06). New York is assuming -1D, -1R, with elimination of NY-09 (drawn with NY-08) and NY-25 (drawn with NY-24) and numbering down from there. New Jersey is very difficult to predict... I am guessing -1R, in this case I eliminated NJ-12 and threw Holt into a toss-up seat with Lance.
Arizona is hard to guess. I made AZ-09 a toss-up, guessing that either it will be Dem-leaning or it will make one of the existing GOP-held seats more vulnerable. Florida is a big question mark, it's hard to imagine a result less favorable than +1D, +1R here, with +2D or maybe even better possible. California seats are numbered according to this DKE data.
All right, with that out of the way, let's look at the lay of the land.
I have 171 Safe D seats, 18 Lean D seats, 28 Toss-up seats, 36 Lean R seats, and 182 Safe R seats. Again, you can check the full list to see the Safe D and Safe R seats.
Now you can start putting together a path to 218 seats. Winning 171 Safe seats and 18 Lean seats puts the Democrats at 189 seats, needing to pick up 29 more difficult seats. That would mean winning all the Toss-ups and making a little headway into the Lean R seats. A few favorable outcomes from redistricting and VRA lawsuits could bring this number down by a few seats. Forcing another VRA seat in South Carolina and being aggressive with the proposed Texas map would be a big help.
The importance of NY not letting the GOP dictate too safe of seats is also clear. Without beating Mike Grimm, Nan Hayworth, and either Gibson or the victor of a Hanna/Buerkle, a Dem majority is hard to see. Gains in Florida are necessary. Ousting Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs is probably needed to maintain a Democratic house over the next decade. Looking at the field, it's also very clear that any Democratic majority is likely to be narrow, and passing important legislation will be very dependent on conservative Democrats.
What do you think? Your thoughts on what seats are in play and where I'm wrong are appreciated.