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So Anthony Weiner has finally resigned. What now? Well, there will be a special election, but when, no one can say. In March of last year, when upstate Rep. Eric Massa resigned in the 29th CD, then-Gov. David Paterson scheduled the required special for November (so as to coincide with the general election) — a pretty huge delay of almost nine months. Republicans went to court to try to force Paterson to call it earlier but were rebuffed. So presumably Gov. Andrew Cuomo can wait at least as long as Paterson did, but Huffington Post's Sam Stein cites a state elections official who says that if Cuomo does nothing, a special election will take place this November. (Even though it's an odd-numbered year, New York does conduct some small-bore judicial elections and the like.)

Regardless of when it's called, the most salient feature is that there won't be any primaries — something election watchers are keenly aware of, since this will be the fifth special in New York since 2009. County leaders will hand-pick their party's nominees, a process which has led to almost unthinkable levels of regret on the part of Republicans throughout the state. (Jim Tedisco, Dede Scozzafava, Jane Corwin: These are not the names of success.)

The situation on the Democratic side is particularly interesting. The 9th CD spans two counties: Queens and Kings (aka Brooklyn). But because the bulk of the seat is in the former, the Queens County chair will more or less get to pick the nominee on his own. That man happens to be Rep. Joe Crowley, whose 7th CD neighbors Weiner's 9th. With New York losing two congressional seats thanks to reapportionment, and one of those all but certain to be held by an NYC-area Dem, everyone would love to carve up Weiner's district. While Crowley was never really in any danger of having his seat eliminated (it's actually Gary Ackerman who is breathing a sigh of relief), Democrats in the area probably prefer a candidate who won't seek re-election in 2012, rather than someone who could jump into a primary against an incumbent if the 9th gets disappeared.

So Crowley needs to find someone who can win, but is unambitious enough to seek a second term. That sort of candidate could be hard to find — and if that's what Crowley insists on, it could put an already marginal seat at further risk. Apart from the Staten Island-based 13th, the 9th is the least Democratic district in the city, and it's been trending away from us. Filled with conservative white ethnics, this seat went for Al Gore by a huge 67-30 margin, but sank to 56-44 for Kerry and then 55-44 for Obama. It was also Michael Bloomberg's best district in his tight 2009 election. Though the mayor won by just four points citywide, he took the 9th by 70-26. Just look at all that red:

NY-09 2009 mayoral results
(click for larger version)
So I'd say Republicans are a real threat to win this seat, especially if Crowley insists in picking a placeholder. And if the GOP does pick it up, it'll have serious implications for redistricting. With the state legislature split, the likeliest compromise is to eliminate one downstate Democratic seat (as I noted above) and one upstate Republican seat. But if Republicans take over Weiner's seat, that screws up the math entirely.

Assuming Democrats would still want the 9th to get blasted to smithereens, it could force them to give up an upstate Democratic seat instead. But that's not easily done. For reasons of geography, the two most junior Democrats (Bill Owens in the 23rd and just-elected Kathy Hochul in the 26th) are hard to de-district. A Louise Slaughter retirement could ease things, but despite her age (81), she doesn't look like she wants to go anywhere. Here's another possibility: Continue with the original plan of nuking Ackerman's seat (along with that of an upstate freshman GOPer), leave the 9th more or less intact, and hope to win it back in 2012.

Though the future is very cloudy, we do have a sense of who might be interested in running. On the GOP side, City Councilman Eric Ulrich has already formed a campaign committee. [UPDATE: Apparently the Ulrich committee was an unauthorized "draft" committee.] Other possibilities include state court judge (and former councilman) Noach Dear, and 2010 candidate Bob Turner, a self-funding businessman who pulled in 41% of the vote last year.

For Democrats, possible names include former city council members Eric Gioia and Melinda Katz; current councilman Mark Weprin, and state assemblymen Rory Lancman and David Weprin (brother of Mark). I'm sure others will come out of the woodwork soon. But would any of them agree to run only once? We'll keep following this entire story closely as developments unfold.



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 11:44 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  sounds like it's a lot of 3D (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, TofG, jj32, MichaelNY, Matt Z, bozepravde15

    chess here. Democrats should just signals that this is the seat that they want to break up before the elections. That is what happened in LA-03 and it took a long time before anyone wanted to jump into the race. Finally it happened and now Rep. Landry has the seat but will have to face Charles Boustany  as a decided underdog.

  •  Forcing Weiner's resignation (18+ / 0-)

    was stupid.

    but then congress is full of stupid.

    The best Democratic candidate would be an older statesmen brought out of retirement. Someone with automatic name recognition who would then go quietly into the night after the district is carved up in redistricting.

    The next best would be someone young that has their eyes currently set on something else (council, assembly, etc) that would agree to be a short-termer in this seat in trade for the name boost it would give them towards their ultimate goal of some other seat.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 12:09:51 PM PDT

  •  I heard rumblings of Reshma Saujani (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    although I hope not. She's not someone I want in Congress.

  •  Nearly all the NYC districts are bizarre (5+ / 0-)

    by one measure, NY-12 is the most bizarre in the whole USA: It seems that there is some law requiring a text description of each district.  e.g "Start at 1st and Main, go .1 North, turn East, go ... etc"  and I remember reading that NY-12 had the longest description.

    My own NY-08 is pretty wacky too.

    All these ethnic districts.  Do people really think that Jews will only vote for Jews (NY-08 is probably the highest proportion of Jews of any district) and Latinos (NY-12 has the highest proportion in the Northeast, I believe) for Latinos and Blacks for Blacks and so on?  

    Then how  did Steve Cohen get elected in Tennessee?

    For that matter how did Obama get elected?

    Founder Math and Statistics Geeks . Statistics for progressives

    by plf515 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 12:59:11 PM PDT

  •  Not from NY, but a redistricting possibility above (0+ / 0-)

    seems far fetched. The Democrats could lose two districts in New York State, The Republicans zero?

    •  Not likely (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PrahaPartizan, Odysseus, MichaelNY

      The Republicans only hold the state Senate, Democrats have the Governorship and the state Assembly -- so when it comes time to draw the maps, both parties can prevent the other party from insisting on abolishing 2 seats from the other party.

      Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

      by terjeanderson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:42:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CD26, (0+ / 0-)

    Would naturally need no redistricting to fall back to the Republicans.  What is more difficult, but doable, is to make her seat a Democratic seat.

    •  It is very doable (4+ / 0-)

      It involves Louise Slaughter giving up a lot of Democratic territory around Buffalo (which would be used to strengthen Hochul and Higgins), and adding additional Democratic territory further east (around Syracuse and/or Ithaca) to  Slaughter's Rochester-based seat.

      In the meantime, Reed's district could absorb a lot of the more Republican territory from Hochul and Buerkle's district. (Ann Marie Buerkle's district would be the upstate Republican seat abolished under this scenario. )

      There are other ways to make it happen, but something along these lines produces the cleanest lines and clearest outcomes.

      Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

      by terjeanderson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:47:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It would make sense for Dems to rationalize (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Nickers, MichaelNY, terjeanderson

        the Buffalo and Rochester area districts with an eye to the future. Hochul needs to be shored up and Slaughter is going to have to retire in the next few years. Until then, she's such a formidable opponent that she only gets token opposition.

        Assuming he's still interested in the job, the natural Rochester area candidate, who plays well both in the city and the suburbs, is Bob Duffy, who's currently cooling his heels in Albany as Lt. Gov.

        So, make a Rochester-based district a bit redder at Slaughter's expense and make a Buffalo-based district that's a bit bluer to prop up Hochul.

        Obama: At least he gives a good speech.

        by Permanent Republican Minority on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 10:55:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I see it as a hold (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY, Matt Z

    It is D+5, but it elected strongly liberal Weiner over and over again, even with 60% in 2010, which says a lot about the tilt of the seat. The Bloomberg numbers are interesting, but it has to be taken into account that he is an Independent and that we can't be sure how many of those people who would vote GOP for Congress.

    Lastly, Democrats still have the opposition angle on their side, they are the minority in the House and the House Republican majority isn't exactly that great, a lot of voters might not see a reason to send a GOPer to Congress to rubber stamp a poor agenda.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 01:20:29 PM PDT

    •  Was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Weiner always strongly liberal? I thought he had moved to the left over the last couple terms.

      26, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 01:30:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  andyroo113 said that. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Weiner was quiet for the longest time.

        Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo! So little time, so much to know!

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 07:37:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know about that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          With the DW-Nominate.  

          106th congress:
          84 106 29926 13 9 NEW YOR  100 WEINER  ANT -0.456 -0.361  -147.04097  835  0.839  0.931

          107th: 83 107 29926 13 9 NEW YOR  100 WEINER  ANT -0.456 -0.361  -116.88187  664  0.839  0.935

          108th: 79 108 29926 13 9 NEW YOR  100 WEINER      -0.456 -0.361   -95.60549  820  0.890  0.954

          109th 84 109 29926 13 9 NEW YOR  100 WEINER      -0.456 -0.361  -115.26712  872  0.876  0.954

          110th: 92 110 29926 13 9 NEW YOR  100 WEINER      -0.456 -0.361   -95.05857 1332  0.931  0.976

          ..ok, is it just exatly the same for everyone every year?  Anyway, even in his first Congress, the 106th, we have him in between Rosa DeLauro and Ed Pastor.  I don't think he changed much in his voting record, but I do strongly suspect his "liberal firebrand" thing had a healthy dose of opportunism in it.  Then again, what doesn't?  In or out of politics.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 03:56:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  A Queens cadidate isn't a good idea. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    For the Democrats.  

    Essentially, the Queens side of the district is pretty solidly Democratic.  Obama won 60.6% of the vote here.  Yes, there are some right-wing neighborhoods (Rockaway Point, Broad Channel, Hamilton Beach, Kew Gardens Hills, Middle Village etc), but these are more than balanced out by the left-of-center and minority neighborhoods, like Woodhaven.  

    In contrast, the third of the seat in Brooklyn went for McCain by a 57.1% margin, meaning its almost as right-wing as southern Staten Island.  There's a lot of right-wing Brooklyn in several adjoining districts as well - it's pretty easy to end up with a 57% MCain district based in Brooklyn if you don't know what you're doing.  

    Regardless, I think the primary reason the district has swung to the right is Orthodox Jews in New York stopped voting Democratic at the top of the ticket in 2004.  I'm not sure this presages a wholesale partisan shift though, since many simply vote on Israel.  If the right candidate came forward, the voters would literally fall in line, as in many of these communities 90%+ of people vote one way or another in a given election.  

  •  I wouldn't say Ackerman should be pleased. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, MichaelNY

    After all Crowley may end up picking the person who primaries Ackerman come redistricting.

    I guess there are a few possibilities.  Obviously the State Senate people (Avella, Gianaris) are non-starters despite being some of the best potential candidates.

    1) Pick the best most willing person in Queens.  Probably Goia or Katz who are ambitious and out of "work."  The Weprin brothers might take a stab if they can get some commitments from state assembly friends to look after them.

    2) Lame place holder.  Perhaps Goia or Katz might be willing IF Cuomo is willing to give them some great position.  But given the risk of that backfiring in HIS face I have doubts Cuomo would.  Thus probably some district leader no one ever heard of.  And stating right from the outset you're not going to run for re-election would be horrible PR.  Particularly since Democrats are claiming publicly to support independent redistricting.

    3) Pick someone from Brooklyn which would be the in between option.  It keeps the Queens incumbents safe to grab Weiners territory.  Don't really know the players but can throw out random names anyway.

    State Assembly members Alan Maisel represents the southern Brooklyn portion of the district and was a former aid to Chuck Schumer.

    City Councilman Michael Chaim Nelson holds Anthony Weiner's former City Council seat.

    •  Pick A Brooklyn Pol At Your Own Risk (0+ / 0-)

      Picking a Brooklyn pol in the current climate for this district almost guarantees that a non-Democrat wins.  That doesn't necessarily mean a Republican wins, but it could well mean the Democrat does not.  What happens if a Working Families Party candidate runs - a WFP candidate from Queens.  Queens voters make up two-thirds of the district.  None of those Brooklyn Democratic pols you mentioned show up anywhere on the radar in Queens.  I know for a fact that my spouse, who resides in NY-9th, would not accept any Brooklyn pol being forced down her throat.  I suspect that quite a few Queens residents would echo her sentiments.  

      What are you going to do about an election which is going to need to rely on name recognition since it will likely occur in September, after the summer vacation period when nobody will be paying attention to the election. For all intent and purposes, the election campaign will be two weeks long, maybe only one (Labor Day is September 5th and the election would likely be September 13th).  That's the reality any campaign will be facing.    

      "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

      by PrahaPartizan on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:31:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A cigarette? (9+ / 0-)

    (Just answering the question in your title.)

    Watch Rex, Political Dog give hell to Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, and various rightwing lunatics on Twitter.

    by Bob Johnson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:14:01 PM PDT

  •  Giuliani is supposedly urgin Ulrich to run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    Said he would support him. I think either Ulrich or Turner would be good candidates, but any of the Dems you list could probably win. Only problem is if Dems screw this up by picking a really bad candidate.

  •  When does the NY redistricting have to pass? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I mean, some states have already passed their plans. Is it not possible that the new maps would pass before the special election, thus people would know which district would be gone?

  •  Thank you Anthony Weiner (12+ / 0-)

    (kind of said this previously, but) Thank you for your courage, your conviction and your compassion for so many of us who needed your voice.

    My best wishes for you to find you way in life/S

  •  Why does that drawing of his former (0+ / 0-)

    district remind me of his twitter photo?  Just sayin'...  glad you're gone, Weiner.  So tired of your story.  So disgusted by the whole episode.  Congress is better off without you and your antics and America is better off without having to look at your face or anything else.

    Best. President. Ever.

    by Little Lulu on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:20:59 PM PDT

  •  sidebar: sig (0+ / 0-)

    163 days since the Republicans took the majority of House of Representatives and still no jobs bill. Instead they put forth a budget that ends Medicare, making seniors pay more for less, and gave Big Oil tax subsidies. ~ Rep. Nancy Pelosi

    by anyname on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:25:34 PM PDT

  •  Weiner should run ... i mean he won't, but (6+ / 0-)

    what the hell?  If his folks want to pick someone else, so be it?  The KO idea is the best one in this instance.

    •  weiner running (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      would be a terrible idea. the whole point is to keep him out of the news

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:09:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  but have the people who matter here ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fisher1028, MichaelNY

        his district, had any real say in this?  Considering nobody has broken the law, it would be more fair to actually give them a forum.

        •  well it depends on your perspective (0+ / 0-)

          from my perspective, which is to elect as many democrats who are not racists/homophobes as possible, weiner running would split the liberal vote and allow a republican, likely a conservative one, to be elected.

          therefore, i'm preferring him not running, which makes a liberal representative much more likely

          18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:05:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  split what vote? he'd have to be in a primary ... (0+ / 0-)

            if you want to exhume a challenger or three.  Otherwise, it's just him and his favorable rating in his district against a Republican of some kind.  The 800 lb gorilla is such that there is not much more to be said - he sends people pictures of his junk, you either want him in spite of that or not.  Certainly running in the special election gives him quite a bit of moral high ground regarding his mistakes.

  •  He did this to himself (10+ / 0-)

    Obama didn't tell him to take pictures and send it to other women than his wife.

    Pelosi didn't tell him to take naked photos of himself in Congressional facilities.

    Reid didn't tell him to claim he was hacked.

    Hoyer didn't tell him to obscure the truth to outright lie about it to Luke Russert.

    He did all this all by himself.

    He may have been able to keep his job he just came clean on day one. However, he created this mess and severely damaged his credibility. Just as important he almost legitimized that scum rat Breitbart.

    And don't start with the everyone lies about sex bullshit. It's one thing when you're a private citizen. It's a whole different story when you represent and speak for a big community.

    I have no sympathy for the man. I just hope that NY Democrats can find a suitable replacement for him.

    •  "He did this to himself" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      emsprater

      No, it was you and people like you who decided that the lies about sex were of sufficient magnitude to toss him out.  I didn't hear a lot of complaining emanating from NY-9.  The elegant solution would be to redistrict him out, which would have happened even without a scandal because he was the frontrunner for mayor.

      I hope he runs after all, though even before the scandal I'd prefer Bill DeBlasio (who I'm not sure is running).  

      "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

      by Loge on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:40:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am a former CD 39 constituent (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, Matt Z

        you might want to talk to a few of them before you decide to support him.  

      •  bullshit (8+ / 0-)

        he LIED. you can't pin that on anyone else.

        just like Clinton, this would have never been a big deal if he said "yeah so what, the girl is of age and this is a private matter so it's none of your business because i broke no law". he wouldn't have been unscathed but he certainly would have come out better than he did by lying about it. now the press are going to harp him endlessly and there's nothing we can even say in his defense, the stupid liar. there is no defense for lying in office, D or R. your trust is compromised, and it's warranted for the people to throw him out

        again: he lied. this is no one's fault but his.

        •  I can only hope that someday (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42

          your faith in representative democracy can be restored and that Weiner's resignation plays a part.  Your pearl-clutching matters more, of course, than redistricting problems posed by the Congressman's premature resignation.  

          There is a defense to lying as a public official -- if you're lying to people about things whose business it is not.  Even you think Anthony Weiner owes you a duty of candor about his dick shots, I think a zero tolerance policy is a bit harsh.

          Does Weiner's resignation actually make you feel better about yourself, secure in your moral standing?  I'd hate it if the Weiner-must-go crew didn't feel joy in succesfully bringing down a fellow Democrat for no other reason than he stopped being useful as a spokesman.  (Oh, you think Nancy Pelosi shares your views about lying?  Well, she might -- I mean, as applied to her.  No way does she care that Weiner lied to the public at large.)  

          "This world demands the qualities of youth: not a time of life but a state of mind[.]" -- Robert F. Kennedy

          by Loge on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:33:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i feel like the only reason you're defending (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GradyDem, Matt Z

            Weiner is because of the D next to his name, and if he were an R you'd be calling for his head for lying in office. people with D's on them don't get a free pass, sorry.

            you can call me pearl-clutching if you like, but i'd return that when "you're pearl clutching" is your only defense, it's pretty pathetic. you might as well admit defeat. "BUT IT'S OKAY IF OUR SIDE DOES IT"

            so it was an issue that he could have easily said "none of your damn business". i agree. it would have been justified. but he didn't do that. he lied about it first. why would you do that? you may be legally retarded. then his lie got found out, and he did twice the damage to himself and his party and liberals in general than he would have, and i have no sympathy for him.

            •  When it comes to me, personally: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              If I'm not their constituent and there were no laws broken, it's none of my damn business. I would say that about anyone, no matter their party ID. Weiner is a creep. But he didn't do anything illegal and I'm not an NY-09 voter. If there were a sex scandal in OK-01 with John Sullivan, I would say the same thing. None of my business.

              23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

              by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:06:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  true enough (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                i'm not really bothered by Weinier's behavior personally. i don't really care, and i don't personally think that it warrants him being thrown out unless the girls he was sending stuff to were underaged. and even then, only because it's the law.

                but come on people, we all know how the media works. the scandal itself is never as bad as trying to cover it up. sure the media lets GWB and his administration go free when it comes to owning up to all the shit they pulled, but seriously, how could Weiner be so stupid? he couldn't tell how this would all play out when he lied?

                come on man. we needed that guy, and he blew it on nothing

      •  Let me repeat slowly (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, Matt Z

        He did this to himself.

        It was the bald faced lying that did him in. He was a public servant that made horrible choices during this whole deal.

        End of story.

        •  It wasn't just lying (8+ / 0-)

          It was lying like a total boofoon.

          I couldn't care less about him sending pictures around.  But he actually thought such a dumbass lie would work.  Good riddance.

          For anything personal and not illegal, "none of your damn business" is the response, not lying, not ever.

          http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

          by tommypaine on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:52:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Exactly (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, NMLib, MichaelNY, Matt Z

            Weiner brought this upon himself. And he paraded himself on national TV trying to spin this intricate web of lies no one could believe. Though I wish he resigned earlier so we could all be spared Gloria Allred poking her head into another scandal. Though I must admit hearing her read the tweets about Weiner and his "package" were quite hilarious.

            I feel sorry for his wife though. Can't believe Weiner didn't feel ashamed he was doing this while his wife was going through the early stages of pregnancy.

            President Barack Obama and Democrats: Moving America forward since 2008.

            by ehstronghold on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 07:34:54 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Does it matter what they agree to? (0+ / 0-)

    Circumstances change. Why would they feel any need to honor some sleazy backroom deal?

    Conservatism explained: Carrots for the rich and the corporate. Sticks for the workers and the poor. It really is that simple.

    by DaveW on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:31:26 PM PDT

  •  Republican trap has sprung. They kept up the noise (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Egalitare, emsprater

    (distraction) until the Democrats had to prove they were more moral than the Republicans and forced Weiner out. Now the district has a good chance of adding to the Republican Majority, thank you Nancy Pelosi and hyphen Schultz. All the "liberal" pundits saying Weiner could resign and run had to know that 1) the Democratic powers picked the candidate and 2) it would cost too much money for him to run as an independent. Just another in the long list of cock and bull stories that characterize this whole sorry affair.
    Incidentally, Democrats can't prove they are more moral than the Republicans because the Republicans have no morals.

    I don't dislike all conservatives... mainly just the ones that vote Republican.

    by OHdog on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:39:03 PM PDT

  •  that R district looks like a giant space gun (0+ / 0-)
  •  No matter who the democrats choose ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bmcphail

    to take this seat, Anthony Weiner should run as an Independent.

    "Democrats" seem to be lacking in more values than 'morals'.

    'Destroying America, One middle class family and one civil liberty at a time: Today's GOP'

    by emsprater on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 02:58:17 PM PDT

  •  Write-in for weiner? (0+ / 0-)

    Hmm... Anything is possible

  •  I actually thought Chris Matthews (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    had the best idea for once.

    Weiner should resign and immediately file for the special.

    Let the voters decide how much they care.

    Baz

    We are the principled ones, remember? We don't get to use the black hats' tricks even when it would benefit us. Political Compass: -6.88, -6.41

    by bmcphail on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:04:48 PM PDT

  •  Could be a primary (0+ / 0-)

    My understanding is that if Gov. Cuomo feels like acting immediately, there is time for a primary under NYS election rules. That said, local betting is that he'd rather name someone than see, you know, an actual electoral process—it's the NY way.

    •  Cuomo isn't going to name anyone (0+ / 0-)

      Vito Lopez and Rep. Joe Crowley are.  Maybe the Green and WFP parties can put Weiner forth as their candidate.

      •  bad idea (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        would split the liberal vote

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:12:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why Choose Weiner? (0+ / 0-)

        The WFP is pretty strong  in NYC in general.  In a snap election like this in a terrible economic climate, the WFP might just decide to advance one of its own candidates for the office.  They could even use the argument that, since the district is likely to get re-districted out of existence after only one year,  how could electing someone outside the Democratic-Republican co-dominium in the Congress hurt anybody.  It just might shake some things up when things badly need shaking.  NYC offers lots of opportunity for spectacle for a Congressional race - coverage by the newpapers (of record and local), good radio, TV ane cable coverage, lots of organizations who need speakers.  Even better it will have lots of national coverage clomping around the district trying to get color backgrounds for the election.  Weiner's resignation has set in motion a whole trainload of crazy that the Democrats are only going to begin to understand tomorrow morning.

        "Love the Truth, defend the Truth, speak the Truth, and hear the Truth" - Jan Hus, d.1415 CE

        by PrahaPartizan on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:15:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  So let me get this straight... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Matt Z

        Weiner, after resigning from Congress should now attempt to seek the WFP and/or Green line?

        Do you even understand how insane that sounds?

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 24 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:24:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  No primaries (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Its not a matter of time. The law in NY is no primaries for special elections.

      LA-06, GOPVOTER from SSP

      by JamesNola on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:37:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  That district looks like a calico alligator dog.nt (2+ / 0-)

    "Misfortune shows those who are not really friends." Aristotle Fuldheim's long and distinguished career - where, at age 91, .,,,. suffered a stroke on July 27, 1984, shortly after interviewing U.S. President Ronald Reagan via satellite.

    by JugOPunch on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:28:54 PM PDT

  •  Can I say this? (9+ / 0-)

    I'd like to say this without someone getting all snooty or bent out of shape.

    Weiner is gone.  He's a non-entity now.  Any discussion politically about Weiner is nothin' but gonna be bad for anyone that tries, as they may, to defend him or say "he's no worse than this or that republican...".  

    Gotta go into the process of getting his replacement without all that B.S.  It's a loser to defend him even if ya have just the most wonderful little sayings and even if you can show how he's no worse than some scuzzbucket republican.  He's just as bad...and that's the point, y'all.

    We need to get him replaced with a dem.  THAT, and ONLY that should be the focus.

    -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

    by r2did2 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:39:24 PM PDT

  •  Crowley has lots to offer a candidate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    He doesn't need to depend on a low profile place holder and risk losing the seat because the person will likely only serve half a term in Congress.

    In return for that half term (a great profile raiser), a person might get commitments for a future state legislative run, city council run, consideration for a Cuomo appointment, an top job in the next city Democratic administration, or a juicy judicial appointment.  (Or, if someone is especially ambitious, a chance to primary Ackerman depending on the what the district lines end up looking like).

    Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

    by terjeanderson on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 03:52:57 PM PDT

  •  it makes me sad that this is a thread (2+ / 0-)

    about the replacement of Anthony Weiner.

    This all came so out of nowhere, and is so absolutely stupid. I cant believe that a guy lying about a twitter picture can be forced into resignation, yet all the world effecting lies and devious behavior that happen every day by so many politicians go on right in the open and not a thing happens.

    The way the DNC came out and pushed this guy to the curb, one of the few who was willing to speak up, is very disheartening.

    I will not call them the GOP. They are not Grand at all. They will always be the WOMP (White Old Man Party) to me.

    by gbaked on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:07:22 PM PDT

    •  Right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      independantman

      So, from now on politicians should run for national public office saying they believe that there should be no questioning of politicians for going against their vows with their spouse and should not be put in question for lying about it.

      Yeah...sure.  Right.

      It's not what other politicians or notable people have done or are doing, my friend.  It's about what Weiner did.  Same thing should happen to each and every public official that does the same thing.  If ya know of others, do your civic duty and out them.

      -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

      by r2did2 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:17:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Blame Weiner (9+ / 0-)

      He lied about this for over week. He repeatedly went on TV shows lying about this. No one forced him to do that. Dem leadership was fairly quiet about this for the first week. In fact, it wasnt until Saturday that Pelosi and DWS called for him to resign, and the WH only mentioned it for the first time this week, and only when asked.

    •  Uh, he didn't speak up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

      That's kinda the point.  He disgraced himself.  Move on and try to rebuild his life now.

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

      by tommypaine on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:57:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If he had done his speaking up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      In a less-obviously self-promoting way, and if he had maintained the good relationship with his colleagues that any good politician knows to maintain (and no, they didn't hate him because he was too liberal or whatever--do you get the sense that Barbara Lee is anything less than a consumate inside player?  Appropriations, chair of the Progessive caucus, chair of the CBC...But, as far as I can tell, she's a better politician and liberal than Anthony Weiner) and if he had either been more discreet about this, or avoided lying about it both to the media and to his colleagues and leadership, and if he had the media sense that someone who lives on cable news is supposed to have, this wouldn't have happened.  

      Yes, there are far, far worse politicians and people.  But if Weiner was dumb enough to do all that, then there are better champions out there anyway.  Find some or make some or become one yourself.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 04:56:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Huma Abedin for NY-9 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The most obvious candidate to run to replace Anthony Weiner is his wife, Huma Abedin, the mature half of the couple.  

    She was long been connected to Hillary Clinton, former NY Senator, the Clintons could lock the nomination down for he, should she run.

    The complication of course is the pregnancy.  

    I seem to recall Cathy McMorris-Rodgers of Washington getting re-elected when pregnant.  She is the only pregnant woman I can recall running for Congress in the past however.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:27:15 PM PDT

    •  Hmmm...it'd be positive on the female side (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I saw this post and initially said...uh, huh...yeah right.

      Then, started thinkin' about it.  Weiner is/was a very good representative (indiscretions aside).  I'm thinking his wife, if she stays with him, could and would be a very good replacement, and maybe electable to boot.  

      Crazy thought, I know..and you probably knew it when you posted it, but hey, crazier things have happened.  I mean, look...we've had actors as govenors and presidents and singers as congressmen and comedians  and...well, you get the point.

      -- **Nothing sucks more than that moment during an argument when you realize you're wrong.**

      by r2did2 on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:31:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, she'd be at even more public events (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      so I could finally start my fashion blog.  

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 04:49:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maybe Pelosi et al... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fisher1028

    ...should have taken this into consideration before squeezing Weiner out like a zit...

    Stupid is as stupid elects.

    by TheOrchid on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 04:57:12 PM PDT

  •  Why is the 26th hard to de-district? (1+ / 0-)

    I bet I could easily do it. Give the district Louise Slaughter's Niagara Falls and Buffalo areas (heavily Democratic) and then incorporate the Eastern burbs like Greece into Slaughter's Rochester district in exchange, and you've created a Democratic district that makes sense for Rochester, and you've tilted a Republican district to the blue for the 26th. And if you need any help to tilt it more, you can put Brian Higgins' district into play a little bit. For one, he doesn't need to stretch down to the PA border. He can give that area up to the Republicans and it won't matter since south of 90 is voting Republican regardless.

    I'm very glad Hochul won, but as a Buffalo Democrat, I can't say that she's my favorite nor that I would want her district preserved as is. One of the best parts of her victory is the potential eradication of a heavily Republican district. I don't think too many Buffalo Democrats would be disappointed if she fell on her sword.

    There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

    by upstate NY on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:05:36 PM PDT

    •  Can you name another Democrat... (8+ / 0-)

      Who sits in an R+6 district - anywhere in the country - and openly supports same-sex marriage, higher taxes on the rich, and collective bargaining for public union workers?

      Personally, I've never been to Buffalo, but I think Rep. Hochul is pretty fucking awesome. YMMV.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:09:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's obvious you don't know the half of it. (0+ / 0-)

        I would have never voted for her in my wildest dreams. She and her family destroy people and don't give a rat's ass for progressives. You're being played. The Democrats I know in Buffalo would not shed a tear if her district were eradicated.

        There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

        by upstate NY on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:15:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  . (0+ / 0-)

          Explain?

          21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:16:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  She provided political cover (1+ / 0-)

            for her husband in his fascist prosecution of a local artist on behalf of the Bush administration. They prosecuted a guy who was a critic of Monsanto and the case was widely seen as a test expansion of the Patriot Act. When local Democrats pushed back by organizing and getting their representatives involved, she provided enough cover politically in town so that the severe encroachment of rights continued. Tilda Swinton even made a movie about what they did--Strange Culture--and though everything turned out alright in the end when the presiding judge called Hochul's attempts totally appalling )he threw out a case that was prosecuted for years), they did manage to bankrupt the artist and to force a plea on an elderly professor (who helped with the artist's work) because the professor had terminal cancer and didn't want to spend his last days ion court.

            There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

            by upstate NY on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:26:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly, that sounds like exaggeration to me (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, GradyDem

          I haven't heard anything about Hochul's family destroying anyone and as negative as that campaign was, it seems as if something like that would have come out.

          25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Thu Jun 16, 2011 at 05:23:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm pretty sure this is irrelevant to the topic (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, GradyDem

          at hand.

          •  It's not (0+ / 0-)

            We're discussing which Democrat should be sacrificed in redistricting. One definitely will be.

            There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

            by upstate NY on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 06:41:09 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Who would you like? Corwin? Chris Lee? (0+ / 0-)

          Obviously some Democrats like her.

          •  The point is, few local Democrats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            would bemoan it if that heavily Republican district was obliterated and Louise Slaughter and Brian Higgins split the spoils between them.

            There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

            by upstate NY on Fri Jun 17, 2011 at 06:40:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I lived in Rochester for four years (4+ / 0-)

        and know plenty of Democrats from Buffalo.

        They all LOVE Kathy Hochul. She helped to radically change the Erie County Clerk's office for the better, for one, and her upset win last month only improved her standing among WNY Democrats--even resolving a feud within the Erie County Democratic Party. They would hate to lose her voice in Congress.

  •  I forgot that Steve Israel, DCCC chief, is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    from NY. I'm sure he'll have some say in this too.

  •  a weak placeholder (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, MichaelNY, Matt Z

    makes absolutely no sense. the democratic party needs strong candidates, and there is no room for error.  if they are saying there is no other strong, or at least energizing candidate out there, then the D's are screwed anyway. do the right thing Dem party of NY. get someone out there who will bring out the vote and work for the people.
    this is time for smart ,not time for petty.

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