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The state of Pennsylvania
President Barack Obama has endured his share of ups and downs in the Keystone State, leading to some well-founded concerns about the prospect of his losing a state that has gone Democratic for President in each of the past five elections.

Quinnipiac, however, shows the President recovering nicely from earlier struggles in Keystoneville, and well positioned at the moment to beat all Republican comers.

Quinnipiac University (6/7-12, registered Pennsylvania voters, MoE 2.7%):

Barack Obama (D-inc): 47
Mitt Romney (R): 40

Barack Obama (D-inc): 49
Rick Santorum (R): 38

No one besides Romney and Santorum was tested against the President, but since Romney's been the strongest Republican in head-to-head polls almost across the board, this should give a decent idea of the state of play in Pennsylvania, as far as Quinnipiac sees it.

Quinnipiac also polled the primary:

Romney leads the Republican primary pack with 21 percent, followed by Santorum with 16 percent, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with 11 percent and no other candidate above 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Another 17 percent of Republicans are undecided.

Big trouble for Little Ricky—he can't even win his own state in the primary. Truly, he's 2012's forgotten man so far.

Usually with state polling so far we've seen President Obama with middling numbers, and the Republicans with lousy numbers, and middling beats lousy.

That's still the case here, but Obama's numbers in PA are actually on the upswing. He gets a 48/48 approval number, as well as a 48/46 raw reelect. Not stellar, but better than the genuinely crapulent 42/53 level he was at at the end of April.

Quinnipiac was kind enough to provide Daily Kos Elections with the sample they used for this poll; it is 37% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 27% independents, a fairly similar model to the 2008 CNN exit poll, which was 44% Democratic, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.

All in all, a pretty good poll for the President, especially considering that Pennsylvania was (and is) considered at risk for Democrats this cycle.

UPDATE: In case you were wondering about the state's Democratic senior senator, Bob Casey Jr., he's in even better shape, at 47/26 approval (including 37/38 among Republicans), and leading his most dangerous foe, Generic Republican, by a 47-32 margin. Republican Pat Toomey sports similar 45/28 approvals.



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Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 12:20 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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