Massive credit due to jeffmd for crunching these numbers so quickly, as well as writing the bullet points below.
We threw together the following distribution analysis (click through for the spreadsheet version):(As a note, the "new" district numbers aren't official; all we have are the commission's names, which sound suspiciously like they're naming Canadian ridings instead. We're simply trying to match numbers of each old district with the new district that's the best current match.)
What do we see? More districts stay pretty constant than most had expected.
- The mash-up of Woolsey and Thompson can be seen pretty clearly, though Thompson's district is hacked up more than Woolsey's.
- Contra Costa and Solano counties had been diced several ways to accomodate both George Miller and then-incumbent Ellen Tauscher; that disentanglement shifts populations significantly between the 7th and 10th.
- In the East/South Bay, Pete Stark's district gets rearranged somewhat, and Mike Honda and Zoe Lofgren will presumably want to trade places.
- McNerney lives in Stark's district, but the old 11th retains much of its San Joaquin core. The old tendril of the 18th is added as well.
- As we discussed earlier, there's significant rearranging of the central valley between Cardoza and Denham, though Costa retains 79% of his old district.
- David Dreier's district gets absolutely torn to shreds, with no more than 30% being retained in the new 26th. (Or what we've called the new 26th, "Ontario-Pomona").
- There is significant rearranging in LA: unexpected though, is how much Judy Chu's would-be new
ridingdistrict, "East SGV-Diamond Bar" takes from Adam Schiff's old 29th.
- The "Orange County Coast" seems to set up a great GOP matchup between Messrs. Rohrbacher and Campbell and is composed entirely of their old districts; Campbell has the slight population advantage at 54-46.
And here are racial stats (click here for spreadsheet version):
Additionally, the drop to 48% VAP Hispanic of Loretta Sanchez's 47th/"West Garden Grove" will almost certainly invite a VRA dilution claim - especially with the bump of Ed Royce's neighboring 40th to 41% Hispanic (36% VAP).
Finally, just to note the population loss in LA County's black community, none of the districts are more than 24% black - the old 33d, 35th, and 37th were 30%, 34%, and 25% black, respectively.
Wondering where the current Representatives live, and where they might run in 2012 (if they bother at all)? Follow us over the fold...
The first table is the current representatives, organized by district, but also including what district their houses now find themselves in:
|Old Dist.||Rep.||Hometown||New District|
|1||Thompson (D)||St. Helena||Yuba|
|3||Lungren (R)||Gold River||Sacramento County|
|5||Matsui (D)||Sacramento||Sacramento City|
|6||Woolsey (D)||Petaluma||North Coast|
|7||Geo. Miller (D)||Martinez||Contra Costa|
|8||Pelosi (D)||San Francisco||San Francisco|
|10||Garamendi (D)||Walnut Grove||Contra Costa|
|11||McNerney (D)||Pleasanton||Fremont/Newark/Union City|
|12||Speier (D)||Hillsborough||San Mateo|
|13||Stark (D)||Fremont||San Jose (or Fremont/Newark/Union City?)|
|14||Eshoo (D)||Atherton||San Mateo/Santa Clara/Santa Cruz|
|15||Honda (D)||San Jose||South Santa Clara|
|16||Lofgren (D)||San Jose||San Jose|
|23||Capps (D)||Santa Barbara||San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara|
|24||Gallegly (R)||Simi Valley||Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita|
|25||McKeon (R)||Santa Clarita||Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita|
|26||Dreier (R)||San Dimas||East San Gabriel Valley/Covina|
|27||Sherman (D)||Sherman Oaks||West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas|
|28||Berman (D)||North Hollywood||West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas|
|29||Schiff (D)||Burbank||San Gabriel Mountain Foothills|
|30||Waxman (D)||Los Angeles||West L.A./Downtown?|
|31||Becerra (D)||Los Angeles||East L.A./Boyle Hts.|
|32||Chu (D)||Monterey Park||East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar|
|33||Bass (D)||Los Angeles||Crenshaw/Leimert Park?|
|34||Roybal-Allard (D)||Los Angeles||East L.A./Boyle Hts.?|
|35||Waters (D)||Los Angeles||Ingelwood/South Gate?|
|37||Richardson (D)||Long Beach||Long Beach Port|
|39||Linda Sanchez (D)||Lakewood||Long Beach Port|
|40||Royce (R)||Fullerton||La Habra/Yorba Linda|
|41||Lewis (R)||Redlands||Mono/Inyo/San Bernardino|
|42||Gary Miller (R)||Diamond Bar||East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar|
|43||Baca (D)||Rialto||San Bernardino/Rialto|
|45||Bono Mack (R)||Palm Springs||Coachella|
|46||Rohrabacher (R)||Huntington Beach||Orange County Coast|
|47||Loretta Sanchez (D)||Anaheim||La Habra/Yorba Linda|
|48||Campbell (R)||Irvine||Orange County Coast|
|49||Issa (R)||Vista||Coastal San Diego|
|50||Bilbray (R)||Carlsbad||Coastal San Diego|
|51||Filner (D)||San Diego||Imperial/San Diego?|
|52||Hunter (R)||Lakeside||Northeast San Diego|
|53||Davis (D)||San Diego||San Diego/Coronado|
And, for comparison, here's a list organized according to the new districts (ordered according to the numbering scheme that Jeff put together), listing who all lives in each of the districts. Unfortunately, there's some guess-work involved where Reps. are listed as living in "San Jose," "Los Angeles," or "San Diego;" I've proceded based on the lines of their current districts, but if you have some additional insight into where, exactly, these Reps. live, please let us know in the comments.
|”New” District||Temp Name||Rep. (or Reps.)|
|3||Sacramento County||Lungren (R)|
|5||Sacramento City||Matsui (D)|
|6||North Coast||Woolsey (D)|
|8||San Francisco||Pelosi (D)|
|10||Contra Costa||Geo. Miller (D), Garamendi (D)|
|12||San Mateo||Speier (D)|
|13||Fremont/Newark/Union City||McNerney (D)|
|14||San Mateo/Santa Clara/Santa Cruz||Eshoo (D)|
|15||San Jose||Stark (D)?, Lofgren (D)|
|16||South Santa Clara||Honda (D)|
|19||Merced||Cardoza (D), Denham (R), Costa (D)|
|23||San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara||Capps (D)|
|25||Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita||Gallegly (R), McKeon (R)|
|27||West San Fernando Valley/Calabasas||Sherman (D), Berman (D)|
|28||East San Fernando Valley/Tujunga||--|
|29||San Gabriel Mountain Foothills||Schiff (D)|
|30||West L.A./Downtown||Waxman (D)?|
|31||East L.A./Boyle Hts.||Roybal-Allard (D), Becerra (D)|
|32||East San Gabriel Valley/Diamond Bar||Chu (D), Gary Miller (R)|
|33||Crenshaw/Leimert Park||Bass (D)?|
|35||Inglewood/South Gate||Waters (D)?|
|36||Palos Verdes/Beach Cities||vacant (presumably Hahn (D))|
|38||East San Gabriel Valley/Covina||Dreier (R)|
|39||Long Beach Port||Richardson (D), Linda Sanchez (D)|
|40||La Habra/Yorba Linda||Royce (R), Loretta Sanchez (D)|
|41||Mono/Inyo/San Bernardino||Lewis (R)|
|43||San Bernardino/Rialto||Baca (D)|
|45||Coachella||Bono Mack (R)|
|46||Orange County Coast||Rohrabacher (R), Campbell (R)|
|47||West Garden Grove||--|
|48||South Orange County||--|
|49||Coastal San Diego||Bilbray (R), Issa (R)|
|50||San Diego/Coronado||Davis (D)?|
|51||Imperial/San Diego||Filner (D)?|
|52||Northeast San Diego||Hunter (R)|
|53||Chula Vista/National City||--|
That's a lot of districts looking for Representatives, isn't it! However, a lot of these conundrums seem like they'll be easy to fix themselves. For instance, George Miller, although Martinez is currently in the "Contra Costa" district along with John Garamendi, is likely to move over to the "Yolo/Sonoma/Napa" district, which contains much of his current turf. Similarly, Laura Richardon, although her house is in Long Beach, is likely to move from the "Long Beach Port" district to the "Hawthorne/Gardena/Compton" district which she already represents. On the GOP side, it's easy to see John Campbell, currently in "Orange County Coast" with Dana Rohrabacher, picking up and moving a few miles to the currently empty "South Orange County" seat.
The situation in the 11th, 13th, and 15th may resolve itself with McNerney moving east to "San Joaquin," which is now more Stockton-centered, and Stark (if he doesn't retire) staying where he is. If Stark retires, McNerney might prefer to stay in "Fremont/Newark/Union City," clearing the way for, most likely, a Hispanic legislator to claim "San Joaquin."
And don't expect Loretta Sanchez to run against Republican Ed Royce in "La Habra/Yorba Linda." Even though it's shorn of Anaheim, the "West Garden Grove" seat to its south is a much better fit for her, considering that it still contains Santa Ana and a Hispanic majority (albeit a narrower one... to the extent that we're concerned it might not survive a VRA retrogression claim).
I don't see a convenient way for Brian Bilbray and Darrell Issa to avoid a primary battle with each other in "Coastal San Diego" (although Issa might prefer to look north to "Perris," thinking that the underwhelming Ken Calvert might be a better target, and also that he already represents much of that turf).
Elton Gallegly is probably thinking of unbotching his previous botched retirements, as his alternatives are running a primary against Buck McKeon on mostly McKeon's turf, or moving into the now vacant and Dem-friendly "East Ventura" seat. Next to that, there's an interesting Dem-on-Dem battle potentially looming: Brad Sherman (of the Sherman Oaks neighborhood, apparently no relation) and Howard Berman (of North Hollywood) are now both in "West San Fernando Valley," leaving "East San Fernando Valley" open, probably for a Hispanic legislator. Does Berman (who's 70) pack it in, or does he move slightly east and try to continue on what's mostly his turf?
Finally, notice the mighty pile-up in the "Merced" seat. Expect Reps. Costa, Cardoza, and Denham to try to unpack themselves into three separate seats, although the "Stanislaus" seat, apparently the reddest of the three options, might still be too swingy for Republican Denham's tastes.
So, by my count, that now means we're looking for Hispanic legislators to fill in three seats that are basically new from the ground-up: "Ontario," "Riverside/Moreno Valley," and "Chula Vista/National City." (And if Bob Filner becomes San Diego mayor or just retires (he's 69), that'll take it up to four.) Watch for the rumors and/or announcements to start flying in the coming weeks.