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Senate:

FL-Sen: Oh man. You just have to listen to this YouTube:

Though it doesn't do justice to Mike Haridopolos's disastrous interview on a right-wing radio show, if you can't listen, you can at least check out a partial transcript here. In short, the host (Ray Junior) asked Haridopolos no fewer than ten times — in withering prosecutorial fashion — whether he supported the Ryan plan. After refusing to answer (no fewer than ten times), Junior cut the line on Hardipolos's call.

In a feeble attempt at damage control, Haridopolos then tried to say he "support[s] almost every provision" of the Ryan budget, which led rival Adam Hasner (who is very much pro-Ryan) to attack him as a waffler. Finally, at the end of a very bad day, Haridopolos said he'd vote against the Ryan plan. I told you this guy was pathetic.

NJ-Sen: Farleigh Dickinson University has a new poll pitting Dem Sen. Bob Menendez against wealthy biotech exec John Crowley, who seems like he's ready to make a run but hasn't actually announced yet. The half-unknown Menendez leads the totally unknown Crowley by a 45-26 score. (In January, it was 44-30.) Menendez is only getting 78% of Democrats, but I see no reason why he won't do much better than that (in 2006, he got 92%). I also note that the share of respondents identifying as Republicans dropped from 38% to 33% in this survey.

NV-Sen: It definitely doesn't sound like wealthy lawyer (and electric car entrepreneur?) Byron Georgiou is interested in quitting the race. In a recent interview with a local TV news station, he complained about Harry Reid and the Dem establishment trying to clear a path to the nomination for Rep. Shelley Berkley. I wouldn't necessarily be against a good, clean primary, but if Georgiou plans to attack Berkley for her vote in favor of TARP (the article mentions he "pointedly disagrees with the bank bailouts"), then I won't be pleased.

OH-Sen: Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown's polling numbers from PPP just keep looking better and better. (Full post at Daily Kos Elections.)

UT-Sen, UT-03: Phew! I was getting worried it might not happen — the cellar was starting to run low on cat fud. But fortunately, the Salt Lake Tribune reports that Rep. Jason Chaffetz is telling Republican power brokers that he's moving ahead with a challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch. Chaffetz himself refuses to confirm, but says he's "gravitating" towards a run. Here's a trivia question for you: Has anyone ever reached the Senate by first primarying a member of the House, then primarying a sitting Senator? (Remember, Chaffetz knocked off fellow Republican Rep. Chris Cannon in an internal GOP battle in 2008.)

House:

CA-26: Assemblyman Anthony Portantino jumped into the race against David Dreier very early on, undoubtedly aware that redistricting could (and likely would) wreak havoc with the heavily gerrymandered 26th. In a recent interview, Portantino made it sound as though he'd run for Congress no matter where his hometown (the interestingly-named La Cañada Flintridge) winds up in. The problem is that LCF could wind up in a district held by one of Portantino's fellow Democrats — or in the much-less-friendly confines of Republican Buck McKeon's 25th. So it'll be interesting to see what Portantino does.

IL-16: After initially saying he'd run in the new 16th CD — which would have meant a possible primary battle with veteran Rep. Don Manzullo — freshman GOPer Adam Kinzinger is now saying he hasn't made up his mind. Someone check to see if any of Kinzinger's prize racehorses have gone missing their heads.

NV-02: Nevada's Supreme Court is asking litigants in the suit over how candidates are to be picked for the special election if it would be possible to delay the special election past Sept. 13, to give the court more time to render a decision. Roll Call suggests that the election could take place as late as the first week in November without running afoul of state laws. But I don't understand why the court should need so long to deliberate — this case is purely a matter of statutory interpretation with little or no factual record. In other words, it should be pretty straightforward one way or the other.

NY-09: I've been half-watching this idiotic Anthony Weiner story out of the corner of my eye, wondering if we'd reach a point where I actually felt compelled to stick something in the digest. Well, now, we have. Weiner doesn't seem to be managing what should have been a dumb, one-day prank story particularly well, since he's now declared that he "can't say with certitude" whether the now-infamous photo which appeared on his Twitter feed was actually of his own johnson. Seriously, dude, wtf?

TN-09: Déjà vu all over again: For the fourth straight cycle, an African-American challenger is trying to topple Rep. Steve Cohen, a white congressman who represents a majority-black district in Memphis. After winning the Democratic primary to replace ex-Rep. Harold Ford in 2006, Cohen successfully faced down an independent candidacy from Ford's younger brother Jake that November. He then beat back the shameful Nikki Tinker in the 2008 primary, and the shameful and corrupt Willie Herenton in 2010, in both cases by massive 4-to-1 margins. Now Memphis City Schools board member Tomeka Hart wants to take on Cohen, a vocal progressive with a terrific voting record. With Cohen's history of electoral success, I have no idea how Hart plans to win.

UT-03: With Rep. Jason Chaffetz on his way out the door (see UT-Sen bullet above), state Rep. Carl Wimmer says: "I would be very, very surprised if you don’t see me on the ballot for Congress.” This is Utah, so do I need to tell you that Wimmer is a Republican?

WA-01, WA-10: Former Dem state Rep. Laura Ruderman says she plans to run for Jay Inslee's 1st CD seat if he runs for governor (a move no one seems to be betting against), or possibly in the new 10th CD if it includes her hometown of Kirkland.

WA-08: This is not something you see every day: Democratic state Rep. Roger Goodman, who is nominally running in the 8th but is more likely to wind up running in the 1st or 10th, wants to push marijuana reform at the federal level. There's no chance of that happening in Congress, of course, but maybe Goodman is just trying to distinguish himself.

WI-01: Steve Peoples gives us some background on businessman and Kenosha County supervisor Rob Zerban, the Republican-turned-Democrat who is taking on Paul Ryan.

Other Races:

MN Ballot: I have a feeling the polling is going to be all over the place on this one, since question wording seems to make a huge difference to the outcome. PPP finds Minnesota voters evenly split on an amendment to the state constitution that would outlaw same-sex marriage — contrasting with a Star Tribune poll that showed a majority opposed and a SurveyUSA poll which had a majority in favor. But Tom Jensen thinks that opinions on gay marriage are shifting so rapidly that he expects the numbers to improve by Nov. 2012. P.S. Gov. Mark Dayton gets pretty decent approval numbers, 51-38, and Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 49-40.

VA St. Sen.: Good news for Virginia Democrats: Chuck Colgan, the 84-year-old president pro tem of the state Senate, says he'll seek re-election this fall. Colgan's district will be a tough one for even him to hold, but having him on the ballot improves our chances of keeping our narrow 22-18 majority in the chamber.

Grab Bag:

NRCC: The NRCC launched the 2011-12 version of its defensive effort known as the Patriot Program (the equivalent of the D-Trip's Frontline). Ten names (seven actual freshmen, two "red-shirt" freshmen, and one veteran) are on the list — click the link for names.

Redistricting Roundup:

Alabama: Alabama's proving to be yet another state where, despite total GOP control of the redistricting process, parochial concerns have led to a split between the lower chamber of the legislature and the upper. After the Senate passed a congressional map, the House went and passed a somewhat different version of its own. State Sen. Cam Ward actually got his buddies in the House to do him a solid: He wants his home base of Chilton County to stay in the 6th CD so that he can run for Rep. Spencer Bachus's seat when he retires, and so the House drew a map accomplishing just that. State Sen. Scott Beason also has his eye on Bachus's seat, though, which is why he pushed the Senate to adopt a map that forced Ward out of the district. Trent opines:

I suspect that Ward's plan ends up passing because it does a marginally better job of shoring up AL-03 for Mike Rogers. And Ward's plan came out of the reapportionment committee, so it helps the GOP with their good-government messaging if they choose the plan with greater transparency rather than Beason's last-minute substitution. Plus, Ward is just more likable than Beason, which never hurts.

Florida: As expected, the Department of Justice granted preclearance to Florida's "Fair Districts" constitutional amendments which change the way legislative and congressional redistricting must be carried out. You may recall that Gov. Rick Scott dragged his feet in requesting preclearance, and the GOP leaders of the legislature did their best to undermine it, but that evidently had no effect. There's still a lawsuit pending to block implementation of the amendments, but it's hard to see it succeeding.

Nevada: Act two of the Silver State's kabuki cartography has come to a close, with Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval vetoing the Democratic-passed redistricting maps for a second time. Dems say they are unlikely to try yet again, with the legislative session ending in just a few days (June 6).

Texas: We delve into the strange backstory behind the GOP's devilish proposed gerrymander in the Lone Star State. (Full post at Daily Kos Elections.)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rep. Cohen could very well have this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, Odysseus, MichaelNY

    district locked up, but if Tomeka Hart is nothing like her predecessors, then he may have a serious challenge.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:06:54 AM PDT

    •  Hart has made it clear (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, Inoljt, MichaelNY

      that she will not bring race into her campaign. She seems rather impressive, having both an MBA and a Law degree.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:32:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Without race, she has no platform. (7+ / 0-)

        I can't imagine there'd be any difference in the way a Rep. Hart would vote vs. Cohen.

        23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:44:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exactly (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus, MichaelNY

          It would be hard to run to the left of him, politically stupid to run to the right of him -- and his down-the-line support of President Obama plays very well in his district.  Pretty much the only thing left is that he's white and Jewish.

          •  Then she won't have much to run on. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Odysseus, MichaelNY

            I tend to take people at their word, until they do something to change that. She may just have a record to run on then.

            19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:00:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Cohen has been unresponsive to his constituents (4+ / 0-)

              He's been there for eight years now and he's still White and Jewish.  

              Seriously, though.  Hart is perfectly entitled to run on the basis of "I'd be better at advocating for what we want."  There's no law that says a decent congresscritter in a safe district has a lifetime claim on the seat.  

              It's better to curse the darkness than light a candle. --Whoever invented blogs, c.1996

              by Rich in PA on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:22:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't disagree, but .... (5+ / 0-)

                There are too many people in safe Democratic districts who have been there forever and never really have to account for anything.  A respectful airing of differences of opinion, background, outlook, etc. is good -- and putting more good Democrats before the public helps the party.

                But .....

                While I'll give Ms. Hart the same benefit of the doubt I'd give anyone, given how the last few election cycles played out in Memphis, I'm skeptical.  Congressman Cohen was slimed in the most vile and contemptable way -- and it was made worse that the attacks came from other Democrats.

                I'm not sure Hart will even be able to control the attacks on him.  Even if she is independent of the Ford Machine (if there really is one left to speak of), I'm sure they'll not miss an opportunity to take shots at Cohen.  Sleazy, anti-Semetic literature was dropped in the district last time by a minister who lived like 100 miles away from Memphis.

                So yes, let her honestly offer herself as a candidate, but I' really skeptical of what's going to come.

                •  Pretty merited skepticism at this point (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bythesea, MichaelNY

                  Remember when Harold Ford Sr. said that Cohen was "too liberal" and that Memphis was a "Christian city"?  

                  I’m asking all of you:: Don’t let this man reject Jake Ford Jr (sic). Now, Jake Ford Jr. is the man that you need. And I promise you that Jake Ford Jr. – he don’t believe in no same-sex marriages! We’re from a Christian city here. He doesn’t believe in legalizing marijuana. This man that’s running against Jake wants some sex shops running in downtown Memphis on a Sunday! That’s our religious holiday. He shouldn’t be doing that and then saying he’s the most liberal Democrat. He is too liberal! I mean, paramutual betting. And this lottery! A lottery ain’t nothing but a tax on poor people. And why would you brag about lottery. And the very people that the lottery’s supposed to help are the very people that can’t go to college and benefit from it. So I say to you: Trust me, you trusted me as your congressman. We don’t know much about the other person. He missed 49 percent of his votes in 18 years in the state Senate.

                  Dude, did you get your own son's name wrong?  By adding a Jr.?  When your name is Harold and his name is Jake?  I think you have bigger problems than primaries.  "We don't know much about the other person.  He's only been a state Senator for 18 years."

                  http://www.memphisflyer.com/...

                  (Link via politico via googling)

                  25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                  by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:50:23 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I want to know if she's attached to the (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Inoljt, MichaelNY

                    old machine. Something tells me she's not. She defeated a long time Democratic incumbent on the school board.

                    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:52:46 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  She might just be (5+ / 0-)

                      An ambitious but clean politician who aggressively pursues the next office.  You might recall when a state Senator primaried Bobby Rush.  I don't remember what happened to that guy.  

                      Anyway, for me, the first thing to look at would be the people who donated to her school board campaign, and to see if they've also donated to the various Fords.  But I can't seem to find that info with a few seconds of Googling.  Even the Philadelphia elections people have donor information online and I can't believe any city will be behind ours in transparency.  Anyone know where to look?

                      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:57:52 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Ok, this is barking up the wrong tree (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ndrwmls10, MichaelNY

                        ftp://ftp.shelbycountytn.gov/...

                        At least recently, she raised a grand total of 698 dollars.  Maybe she raised more when she ran in 2004, but I doubt that's around.

                        Also, she must be impressive to some people, as she won an Aspen-Rodel fellowship, which is given to "rising star" types of both parties, and has previously gone to the likes of Gabrielle Giffords, Kamala Harris, Mark Kirk, Paul Ryan, and (also) Artur Davis, Robin Carnahan, and Deb Markowitz.

                        The Aspen-Rodel Fellowship Class of 2010 includes: Minnesota State Representative Sarah Anderson, Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock, San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, Massachusetts State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz, Tennessee Secretary of State Tre Hargett, Arkansas State Representative Steve Harrelson, Memphis School Board President Tomeka Hart, Alexandria (VA) Councilwoman Alicia Hughes, Colorado State Senator Mike Johnston, Kansas State Representative Jeff King, Oregon State Representative Tina Kotek, Delaware State Representative Tom Kovach, Oregon Attorney General John Kroger, Oklahoma State Senator Todd Lamb, George State Representative Alisha Morgan, New Orleans Councilmember Kristin Palmer, Washington State Representative Kevin Parker, Maine State Senator Kevin Raye, Arizona State Representative Michelle Reagan, New Jersey State Senator Teresa Ruiz, Florida State Representative Juan Zapata, and Philadelphia District Attorney Seth Williams.

                        http://phillyda.wordpress.com/...

                        Previous recipients here.

                        25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

                        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 08:08:28 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

      •  so does governor Snyder (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42, MichaelNY

        Fwiw.

        •  Also (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nimh, MichaelNY

          Bob Dold!
          Mitt Romney
          John Lynch
          Gary Peters
          Bill Keating
          Don "The Republican Coakley" Stenberg
          Associate Justice Randy G. 'Bubba' Pierce (of MS, of course)
          The intellectually ever-impressive Rick Santorum
          And more!
          ...
          All hail Justice Bubba!
          (I googled MBA+JD on votesmart.org)

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:48:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  TN-09 (5+ / 0-)

    When will black politicians learn that occasionally, Joe African-American doesn't mind having a white Representative, especially when he represents them well?

    23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:07:41 AM PDT

  •  Watching the Maddow interview (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, Zornorph, Inoljt, MichaelNY

    with Rep. Weiner was so strange.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:14:15 AM PDT

  •  Republican cat fud always brightens my day (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mjd in florida, ArkDem14, jncca, MichaelNY

    I literally laughed out loud at Haridopolis's idiocy. I do think Hasner is a stronger challenger (though I don't see Sen. Bill Nelson losing), so I have a vested interest in seeing Haridopolis get the nomination, but it's so fun to watch Republicans clobber each other over lack of ideological purity on a piece of legislation that will 1) never become law, and 2) is unpopular by a 20+ point margin, especially with the Republicans' traditional base of seniors.

    As for WA-01, a race in which I am taking some personal interest - as I'm considering moving to that area next summer, and I'm originally from just a few hours down I-5 to begin with - I have to say Liias sounds like a real hard-working up-and-comer and Ruderman sounds like a perpetual also-ran.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:19:32 AM PDT

  •  WI Recall - GOP considering running spoilers (7+ / 0-)

    Secret tape: GOP considered spoiler candidate to challenge Shilling

    I'm not sure if this would benefit the republicans, except for keeping them in office for at least another month to do more mischief.  

    But it's telling me that either 1) they have a mole, or 2) someone in their party is unhappy with the direction they're going.  Either warms my heart this morning.

    La Crosse County Republicans discussed running a spoiler candidate against Democrat Jennifer Shilling in an effort to delay the recall election of Sen. Dan Kapanke, according to a secret recording of the party's general membership meeting last week.

    On the recording obtained by the Tribune, party vice chairman Julian Bradley says he just spoke with Mark Jefferson, executive director of the state GOP, and "we are actively keeping our ears to the ground and if anybody knows anybody for a candidate that would be interested on the Democratic side in running in the primary against Jennifer Shilling.... So if anybody knows any Democrats who would be interested, please let us know."

    RECOUNT. Recall - Done!! VOTE!!! Rescind. Rebuild.

    by stcroix cheesehead on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:21:37 AM PDT

  •  Apparently there is a movement (0+ / 0-)

    to draft Rep. Cohen into the Senate race.

    http://www.commercialappeal.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:29:00 AM PDT

  •  Question-- I want to look at (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    the effect of the addition of new territory to incumbent's districts on incumbency advantage.

    I read a 2002 paper that suggests that there is such an effect, and that it is correlated with the partisanship of the added territory, but it's using 1990/1992 election data, so I want to check if I can find a similar effect in 2000/2002 election data.

    So.. while I can play the political trivia game pretty well, you guys are mostly dwarfing me on it, so help me find districts with the following criteria please:

    -at least marginally competitive (not worse than a 2:1 advantage for one party)
    -substantially redrawn in 2000
    -no incumbent matchup in 2002 (eliminating Holden-Gekas, which would be perfect otherwise)
    -same incumbent for one party on the ballot in 2000 and 2002-- at best an incumbent in both cycles, but if that doesn't work, a 2002 freshman would work too, I guess.

    The first one I looked at was Melissa Hart's district in Pittsburgh, which meets almost all criteria in the list above (she was elected in an open race in 2000, not an incumbent)--- and I couldn't find any evidence that she was substantially underperforming in the precincts added to her district in redistricting.

    In the precincts who were in the district in both decades she got 61.5% (average of precincts, not total) in the open seat race 2000, while Bush got 52%.

    In these same precincts she improved to 66.5% in 2002 as an incumbent, and Bush got 55% in the precincts added to the district, so if the incumbency advantage was the same in both areas, you'd expect her to get 69.5% here. She received 68.5%, which is close enough to the expected result that I suspect that the difference is mostly due to chance, but even if it isn't, one point underperformance isn't a big deal.

    But of course, I can't just do this analysis by looking at one district, so I'd really appreciate it if you could point me to more districts like that. Maybe Lou Gohmert's district in TX?

  •  Governing Mag: Dems to Watch (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, walja, MichaelNY

    Governing Magazine listed 12 Democratic State Legislators to Watch:

    GA House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams
    ME House Democratic Leader Emily Cain
    WA State Rep. Reuven Carlyle
    CA State Sen. Ted Lieu
    CA House Speaker Pro Tempore Fiona Ma
    UT State Sen. Ben McAdams
    NM State Sen. Cynthia Nava
    IN State Rep. Scott Pelath
    PA State Sen. Judy Schwank
    SC State Rep. Bakari Sellers
    SC State Sen. Vincent Sheheen
    AR State Rep. Darrin Williams

    http://www.governing.com/...

    For the Republicans:

    OH State Sen. Kevin Bacon
    IN State Sen. Jim Banks
    OR co-House Speaker Bruce Hanna
    WA State Sen. Andy Hill
    AL House Speaker Mike Hubbard
    MN State Rep. John Kriesel
    UT State Sen. Dan Liljenquist
    OK State Rep. Glen Mulready
    PA State Sen. John Pippy
    GA House Speaker David Ralston
    NC House Speaker Thom Tillis
    NC Senate Pres. Pro Tempore Phil Berger
    LA House Speaker Jim Tucker
    IA House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer
    MA State Rep. Dan Winslow
    MN House Speaker Kurt Zellers
    MN State Sen. Majority Leader Amy Koch

    http://www.governing.com/...

  •  Fmr. California Treasurer Matt Fong has died (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    He's perhaps even better-known, at least around these parts, as Barbara Boxer's GOP opponent in the 1998 U.S. Senate race.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:22:17 AM PDT

  •  What the hell is wrong with Greek (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Republicans in Florida?

    They just can't sign up to Tea Party plans.

    What's wring with them?

    The next thing you know, this guy will be hugging Obama!!!

    There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

    by upstate NY on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:37:36 AM PDT

  •  Let's be honest.. (7+ / 0-)

    It doesn't matter if Chaffetz beats and primaries Hatch. They would vote identically now that Hatch has lost what little soul he had when he turned on his own DREAM act in a move to the right.

    The voting record would be the same regardless.

  •  Nv Sen (0+ / 0-)

    Do you think Byron Georgiou is a spoiler?

    boycott Koch = don't buy Northern TP

    by glitterscale on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:50:35 AM PDT

    •  In what way? (0+ / 0-)

      He won't win a primary against Rep. Berkley. Who know's if he'll slash and burn along the way, or if he even can.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:53:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ralston says he can do damage, PPP otherwise (3+ / 0-)

        Jon Ralston insists Georgiou can damage Berkley in the primary.

        But PPP shows he is no threat at all to Berkley, she crushes him the same as Heller crushes Angle.

        Georgiou can self-fund and would have to buy better poll numbers with TV ads, but he's just a Rich Dude, not a public figure or someone with any record of public service, and that makes me skeptical he could really hurt Berkley in a primary.  I tend to think Ralston is off-base on this one.  Still, Democrats would prefer even token competition to drop out, so they'll keep working on persuading him to leave.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:39:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This digest is quickly becoming a must-read (7+ / 0-)

    for me!

  •  Lawrence O'Donnell had a good point re: Weiner (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, sweeper, DCCyclone, nimh

    To paraphrase what he said, the more O'Donnell looks at it, the less willing he is to admit that that isn't a photo of O'Donnell.

    We don't want our country back, we want our country FORWARD. --Eclectablog

    by Samer on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:58:31 AM PDT

  •  Hardidopolos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh

    Reminds me of the famous Paxman/Howard exchange in the UK. Google it. "But did you overrule him?" Such a treat.

  •  Obama team 2Q goal (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, ArkDem14

    is $60 million according to this: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    But that number might include some DNC donations? Weird.

    •  Obama has set up a fundraising account (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, itskevin, TofG, ArkDem14, nimh, MichaelNY

      with the DNC. He did it last time too, when he was the nominee, and I believe McCain did the same with the RNC. The first $5,000 raised from someone goes to the Obama campaign(the legal max for a candidate), and everything else until, I think, 38,500 goes to the DNC(the legal max to a campaign committee). So those DNC numbers will be important to watch.

      •  oh, nice! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        didn't know that, thanks

        •  A little more elaboration...... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bharat, itskevin, TofG

          The national party committees are allowed to spend directly on the Presidential election, and set up a separate financial account for that purpose.  That is the DNC money being raised here, money to be spent specifically on Obama.

          Now, I don't know how restrictive the rules are, if that account can be spend on coordinated activity, too.  In 2008 my walk lists were combined for the entire ticket, where I was to campaign for Obama, Mark Warner, and VA-10 Democratic nominee Judy Feder all on the same walk shifts.  Of course it could've been the state party's federal account, but Obama was coordinating everything so probably he was funding it, partly or wholly through the DNC.

          It's possible money can be shifted and mixed and matched, or whatever, between federal accounts, within some limits.

          But I know for a fact that at least on the fundraising end, the Presidential campaign account is separate, with much higher donation limits than for the Presidential nominee.  And that is what Obama is doing now, raising money first for the DNC, and secondarily for his personal campaign account.  So that $60 million likely will include a lot of DNC money when the reports come out.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:52:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Here in Nevada, "good, clean primaries"... (5+ / 0-)

    Just don't happen. That's why Reid and the Dem establishment don't like primaries, and especially why they don't want Shelley subjected to this. However since Georgiou has hired Joe Trippi and bad-mouthed Shelley to any reporter willing to put it on TV, he's clearly ready to go scoreched-earth California style. Georgiou has to remember that this isn't California, and he won't be able to get away with this scott free like Steve Westly or Janice Hahn can.

    •  Oy vey! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      Punish him Harry!

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:30:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reid likes primaries (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      When they get him opponents like Sharron Angle though.

      23, Solid Liberal Democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:33:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm skeptical Georgiou can hurt Berkley (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, atdnext

      Yes he'll have money to attack her, but PPP has him polling in the dirt, and he's got nothing to sell of himself to improve his numbers.  And there's not really any dirt on Shelley personally that I've heard of, nor is there any issue on which to attack her that would help him with Democratic voters.  At worst he could serve as a subterfuge, consciously or not, to hurt her in the general election, if some of his hits would resonate outside the Democratic base.  But really, what can he do to hurt her in November if not flanking her from her right, which is a losing primary strategy and therefore unlikely?

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:56:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, that's Georgiou's biggest challenge... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, DCCyclone, SaoMagnifico
        But really, what can he do to hurt her in November if not flanking her from her right, which is a losing primary strategy and therefore unlikely?

        His message is a muddled hot mess. I've heard from multiple reliable sources that he turned away progressive groups helping with media and GOTV last year (anti-Angle, anti-Sandoval), and he did it because he "did not want to be associated with anything 'progressive'". But now in order to really be a threat to Shelley, he'll have to challenge her from the left! IMHO that's why Georgiou is now calling himself "anti-bailouts" and promoting his past as a consumer advocate attorney.

        Ultimately, I agree with you that he will only get so far in the primary. Again, Nevada is NOT California, so Joe Trippi's "divide and conquer" games will probably only turn Georgiou to even more of a "persona non grata" among the Reid Machine folks. Dean Heller's campaign is already trying to use him as another channel for anti-Shelley attacks, so he'd better watch out if he doesn't want to get kicked back across the state line.

      •  Like I said (0+ / 0-)

        TARP. Maybe it's receding too far into the past now for him to get much mileage out of it, but maybe not - after all, the downturn in Nevada's been worse than just about anywhere else. If he turns into a purity troll on the bailouts, that court damage Berkley.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:03:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think TARP ever mattered on our side (0+ / 0-)

          Who in a Democratic primary was hurt by TARP in 2010?  I think absolutely no one, I can't think of anyone who was even mildly damaged.  Did anyone even use it as a weapon?

          TARP is a bugaboo with voters much more on the GOP side, mostly because of teabaggers.

          The left is much less hostile to TARP.  It goes without saying that Obama voted for it, that he supports it and faithfully administers it.  So opposing TARP is opposing our own President.  I think rank-and-field Democrats implicitly "get" that, and they're not going to respond favorably to a TARP attack by some Rich Dude against a sitting Congresswoman whom one-third of the state, and probably 40% of the state's Democrats, have been supporting for many years.

          43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:20:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Where tarp could hurt, potnetially (0+ / 0-)

            is with independents in the General.

            •  I don't think so (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Inoljt

              TARP has never been a potent issue with voters.  Do you remember any TARP ads by anyone last cycle?  I sure don't.

              TARP was bipartisan.  Bush, Obama, and McCain all were for it.  And too many House members and Senators of both parties voted for it for either side to use it against the other.  That's what makes TARP ineffective as an attack against someone, that it was, in fact, truly bipartisan.

              I don't think Romney or Pawlenty can use it, neither one of them has slammed TARP before.  That's no surprise since it was their own party's leadership team of Bush/McConnell/Boehner whipped its passage on Team Red.  The others who have a shot at the nomination all are crazies, they're going to have too many problems with independents to overcome them with TARP.

              And on top of all that, if TARP was a non-issue in last year's election, it's going to be even less important next year.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:04:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm pretty sure I do remember TARP ads, actually (0+ / 0-)

                although I can't remember where off the top of my head. I agree that it probably won't be the most potent issue in 2012, though.

                •  In the Arkansas Dem primary (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, andyroo312

                  Bill Halter bashed Blanche Lincoln's support of TARP.  While I would have preferred Halter be nominated, that particular line of attack struck me as a somewhat irresponsible cheap shot, from any candidate.  TARP was bad, but in the atmosphere of September/October 2008 the presumed alternative (letting banks fail en masse) would have been much worse.

                  •  And Sen. Halter is really glad... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    He chose to use that line of attack.

                    I agree, though. Chemotherapy sucks and it makes people feel like shit, but it beats just letting the cancer to go terminal.

                    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 08:17:51 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Re: TARP (0+ / 0-)
    I wouldn't necessarily be against a good, clean primary, but if Georgiou plans to attack Berkley for her vote in favor of TARP (the article mentions he "pointedly disagrees with the bank bailouts"), then I won't be pleased.

    Why would you possibly say that?

    Anyone dumb enough to vote for TARP deserves to hear about it for the rest of their natural lives.

    -7.75 -4.67

    "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

    There are no Christians in foxholes.

    by Odysseus on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:41:49 AM PDT

  •  I didn't think these people understood that (0+ / 0-)

    if they VOTE FOR SOMETHING it will go to the President to be a law.  
    It's the spin they're trying to put on it now.

    "If you go all day without hitting or biting anyone, it was a good day." Patrick, age 4

    by Meggie on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:49:18 AM PDT

  •  FL-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, andyroo312

    I actually consider this news good for the GOP in FL. I think Hasner is the much stronger candidate than Hair Boy, though knocking off Nelson will still require quite a lot. The fact that Hasner is Jewish will not be a minus.

    •  It's less good for the GOP... (0+ / 0-)

      If independents decide they want Haridopolis because his positions are, you know, not far to the right of the political mainstream in the state - and the Republicans give them a choice between a guy like Hasner and Sen. Bill Nelson instead.

      It's like when you find the best-looking item on the menu and when you order it, the waiter tells you it got in a knife fight with the fishsticks and lost, but he'd be happy to bring you the fishsticks instead - they're just cut up a little. Oh, or you can get a filet mignon with garlic mashed potatoes and red wine au jus.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 08:11:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hasner is in favor of the Ryan plan (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Not sure how that will play in Florida, since a CNN poll showed seniors very strongly opposed to the bill.

      •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        I don't think that's going to be much of a help for him in the general, but I still see him as stronger than Hair Boy.

      •  "Not sure how that will play" is a major... (4+ / 0-)

        ...understatement.

        Come on, you and I and everyone else is quite sure how it will play in Florida:  extremely, fatally badly.

        I've said it before, Republicans are playing fire with their remaining strongest base:  white seniors.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:58:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You can't say for certain. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zornorph

          We also don't know what the environment will be like even a year from now. We'll just have to wait and see.

          DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

          by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:24:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes I can say for certain (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            No I can't say what "the environment" will be in 2012, but I can say with 100% certainty that supporting abolishing Medicare, which is exactly what the Ryan plan would do, is suicide in Florida.  It's damaging everywhere else, but much worse in Florida.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 12:37:51 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well, Ryan says it doesnt. (0+ / 0-)

              So we will see whose side stands the test of time on this issue, and who turns out to be more believable to the public as a whole.

              DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

              by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:11:02 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Public opinion is settled, as is the truth (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                I realize you have a hard time even with basic facts such as Obama's birthplace, so I don't expect much from you.

                But for anyone else's benefit, it's settled truth that Ryan's plan abolishes Medicare.

                And public opinion is equally settled, on the side of truth.  Public opinion is not in play, you lost the argument on this, it's over.

                The only hope of your side now is to stop talking about it.  But your pols seem too stupid to do that, they think they have a "messaging" problem.

                43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:15:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  ... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TofG, SaoMagnifico, nimh

                  Your first point was settled long ago, so how about we leave it be?

                  Let's keep it on electoral implications instead of bringing up areas that don't deal with electoral implications.

                  Thanks.

                  DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

                  by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:43:33 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  My first point is something you chose to raise (0+ / 0-)

                    You thought it appropriate in the first place to come to SSP and promote a racist conspiracy theory about the President, so no I'm not sorry for reminding that's the sort of thing you've brought to the table here.  It provides appropriate context about you.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:09:12 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  User aggou was new to SSP (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                      when he made his mistake back on the old Website. He's young. If I remember right, he apologized for his mistake.

                      He's choosing to immerse himself in understanding us. In that respect, he's showing a willingness to learn. We as Democrats should welcome it. In fact, I believe we should celebrate it.

                      I choose to give aggou the benefit of the doubt. To that end, I think it's best to not bring up his past mistakes -- unless he makes a similar "mistake" again.

                      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                      by tietack on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:33:12 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I did make a mistake in one area and (5+ / 0-)

                        I was sincere in that area. The area he's referring too was different. I'm learning to watch what I say also, and I don't plan to do anything like that again, which I've previously stated, and ill state it again.

                        DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

                        by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:44:31 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  That is completely false. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico

                      How about we stay on electoral implications like I asked, which is also all this thread is supposed to be about anyway. If you continue this issue I won't comment cause its detailing this threads purpose.  Thanks again.

                      DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

                      by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:41:11 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  This is why the Dems (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone, itskevin, MichaelNY

                  need to not allow any cuts to Medicare in the debt/budget compromise.  If we help them cut Medicare, then our attacks on the Ryan plan will seem weak if not hypocritical.

                  •  Yup, and that's exactly the GOP's strategy (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    itskevin, SaoMagnifico, jncca, MichaelNY

                    The GOP wants to hold the debt ceiling, and the entire economy including every American's job as a result, hostage to try to extract Democratic concessions on Medicare that will give the GOP cover in 2012.

                    You're absolutely right that this is why we have to not blink on the debt ceiling talks.  It's critical to call the GOP's bluff.  Boehner has revealed plenty enough that at the 11th hour, he'll cave.  He did on the FY 2011 C.R., he's made it clear the debt ceiling must be raised in the endgame of this debate, and now he admits it has to be done well before the August deadline.

                    We'll certainly end up making concessions liberals won't like.  I didn't like the C.R. concessions, and I'm sure I won't like the debt ceiling concessions.  But there must be no concessions on Medicare in particular or on preserving a robust safety net more broadly.  That safety net, going directly to the livelihoods of all Americans, is our most potent 2012 campaign issue.

                    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:48:48 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  President Obama really needs to give a speech... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tietack

                      To outline exactly what the consequences of default would be, chasten Congress publicly for not acting, and say something like, "The other party wants to pass a plan that will take Medicare away from our seniors and replace it with a voucher system, take away funding for Pell grants and other forms of student aid, and cut food stamps and nutrition programs for millions of struggling families. Yet they have refused, time and time again, to even discuss raising the marginal tax rate on people earning more than $500,000 a year. Make no mistake - we need to reduce our deficit and get our house in order. But I refuse to allow Republicans to take from our seniors, our students, and our lower-income families while defending tax breaks for the wealthy and tax loopholes for corporations. We need to get serious about reducing our deficit, and that means talking about ways in which we can increase our revenue in order to continue providing the vital services that are helping millions of Americans through this economic recovery."

                      That would draw a line in the sand, and I think that would resonate.

                      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 08:29:04 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Speech as political strategy: (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        SaoMagnifico

                        "The Republicans want you to choose to  either change Medicare to let Grandma go poor, or make it impossible to get a loan to buy a new house, or to cede control of our finances to outside forces who may not be friendly to us

                        so they can make it possible to continue to give tax breaks to the Exxons and Enrons of America"

                        "Obviously, sacrifices must be made in this time of need, but they must be shared by all Americans"

                        Obviously, some substitutes are needed for details, but it's important to keep it simple. But the right speech can be mined for sound clips throughout the '12 cycle by every D congressional candidate.

                        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                        by tietack on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:38:43 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for the link to Politico (0+ / 0-)

    As my  congresscritter is on the NRCC list, I took the time to demonstrate how he is failing his constituents

    It is interesting, that when I send him an email, I get a phone call.  Now I don't answer the phone and have told him so, but still he calls.  HMMMM makes you wonder why he doesn't respond in writing.

  •  Freingold to make a descision (4+ / 0-)

    on a Senate bid this summer.

    http://www.jsonline.mobi/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:02:15 AM PDT

    •  And he's encouraging other candidates... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, TofG, MichaelNY

      To go for it.

      Sounds like he's setting a deadline far out to stave off the storm of questions he must be getting, and he might jump in if Rep. Baldwin takes a pass or doesn't gain traction in the polls.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:33:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks, that's the 1st sign he's thinking of it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, TofG, ArkDem14, jncca

      All the tea leaves before that article suggested it wasn't on his mind, and he wasn't interested.  Now we know he clearly is.

      I'm none too excited at the prospect of him trying for a comeback given his uneven campaign ability (and "uneven" is what I think is the best word to describe him, because he's been both very good and very bad at various times, and sometimes both in the same cycle).  I also don't like his eccentric legislative defections that have really hurt us at times, like on Wall Street reform where he idiotically ensured the bill would have to go further to the right, instead of the left, as the result of his refusing to support any bill that wouldn't lose other Democratic votes.

      But no doubt Feingold isn't disliked in Wisconsin, he's not Chris Dodd that way.  He still can win, and in an Obama year he probably beats any Republican even with an imperfect campaign.  Bottom line:  I can live with him.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:03:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WA-08 - Who else? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    I have voted against David Reichert every election since I moved here (3 times).   It sounds like Goodman won't be running in the 8th, so what are my other choices?

    •  We may need to wait (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      For redistricting to really know for sure. And you may get drawn out of the 8th!

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:11:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ross Hunter (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      State House (D-48), chair of House Budget Committee. Now that he has a clean bill of health again, he is gearing up to run.

      If redistricting slices off the Pierce County legislative districts from the 8th, mostly the 2nd LD, Hunter will beat Reichert like a drum.
       

      "Lash those traitors and conservatives with the pen of gall and wormwood. Let them feel -- no temporising!" - Andrew Jackson to Francis Preston Blair, 1835

      by Ivan on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:31:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-SEN (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Goobergunch, MichaelNY

    Tom Conroy is in per a tweet from National Journal. More on the current state rep here: http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...

    •  Sounds like another B-lister (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Beating a Republican incumbent in a suburban seat is good, though. Anyone know what his voting record is like?

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:36:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Forget not the fact . . . (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        . . . that Scott Brown was considered a B-lister at first, too. Frankly, I think our strongest picks are going to be supposed "B-listers," state legislators from the trenches who have had to actually campaign and be charismatic, rather than someone from the lazy, mealy-mouthed Congressional delegation.

        28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

        by The Caped Composer on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 12:07:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Good Question (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ThBecause the Mass Legislature is composed the way it is, voting records never say much that's useful. There are very few closely contested votes. That worked in Scott Brown's favor last time. He could define himself however he wanted to.

        Factionalism and regionalism are probably more important in everyday state politics than party label.

        State Rep districts are pretty small though. (160 for a state of about 6M people.) A lot of them have been there forever because a large number of districts just aren't inter-party competitive.  

        One thing I will note is that none of the declared candidates so far are pitching their message at the "beer track " set as opposed to the "wine track" set. (This divide is at least as much about style as it is about substance, and culture often matters more than policy positions do.)
        A lot of the beer track set went for Brown last time....but there are new facts on the ground that could shift things. A good number of swing voters in the state are union members, and the GOP has declared open war on the labor movement. The 2012 electorate will be more diverse than the one who elected Brown. The threat a of a GOP-controlled Senate looms.

        Stuck Between Stations : Thoughts from a bottomless pool of useless information.

        by Answer Guy on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 12:52:34 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Conroy (0+ / 0-)

        would probably be better than Warren (either one), IMO

    •  Surely not (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      This is the candidate Murray was bragging about? Consider me suitably unimpressed.

      •  there was mention of him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        a couple weeks back, so i'd assume he isn't the one

        18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:52:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  National: Mitt, Palin tied for #1, TPaw, Cain next (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Goobergunch, itskevin, askew

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:37:57 AM PDT

  •  CT-Sen: Fmr. U.S. Comptroller (R) may run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch

    http://www.politico.com/...

    Walker would, with little doubt, be the very best candidate Republicans could run here. Which, of course, is still probably Lean D vs. Murphy.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:39:33 AM PDT

    •  I dont see why Walker would be the best (0+ / 0-)

      candidate. He has never held elected office, and I'm not sure he is particularly well known in CT. His one issue would be the deficit, and while it's certainly important, cant see it driving him to victory in a fairly blue state. Chris Shays or Rob Simmons would be stronger candidates.  

    •  GOP's best still likely D vs. Murphy, not lean (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      And it might still be safe D vs. Murphy.

      They spent tens of millions and still lost an open seat by double-digits in 2010.  They're not going to do any better in 2012.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:09:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In all fairness, McMahon was a dreadful candidate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I suspect under a perfect storm - a bruising, costly Democratic primary, especially if Bysiewicz emerges victor, and a competent GOP nominee - this race could emerge as something besides Safe D. I would agree, however, that it probably won't ever reach legit toss-up status.

        For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

        by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:28:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CALIFORNIA REDISTRICTING (4+ / 0-)

    Informative article on what is going on in here in California.
    http://www.capitolweekly.net/...

    ex-SSP I abstained rather than vote for Kevin McCarthy.

    by hankmeister on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:42:38 AM PDT

    •  thanks for the link (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister, atdnext, MichaelNY

         I am very much looking forward to seeing what the CA redistricting commission comes up with in a couple of weeks. I don't think it will be another "Redistmas" but I believe there is a lot of room for growth in the CA Dem delegation to the House.

          Also I am interested since I live near some district borders and every ten years I get a new Representative. Until '82 we had Tony Beilenson, then Howard Berman, followed by Henry Waxman until '02 and now back to Berman. Seems like we should go into Brad Sherman's district (he replaced Beilenson who retired in '96) since the neighborhood is called Sherman Oaks not Berman Oaks...

      I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

      by Zack from the SFV on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 11:57:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You very well may... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Since I don't see how CA-28 won't be made into a VRA district to serve SFV Latino communities. Since CA-27 is also supposed to be a SFV based seat, I can very well see it taking in the other SFV communities, especially places like Sherman Oaks. I doubt you'll be thrown in either with Ventura County or West LA, since The Valley has enough population for (at least) two whole CDs.

        •  CA-28 is already majority Latino (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

             though maybe not with a Latino voting majority. When some of the incumbents retire they are likely to be replaced by ambitious Latino politicians (termed out state legislators or L.A. councilmembers.) In the case of Adam Schiff it might be an ambitious Armenian politician instead...(Glendale is in his district, and it might be the most Armenian city this side of Yerevan.)

          I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

          by Zack from the SFV on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 03:16:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Armenians... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

            Aren't Armenians historically republican? I may just be thinking of Deukmajian and Khachagian.

            ex-SSP I abstained rather than vote for Kevin McCarthy.

            by hankmeister on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 09:31:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  that was in the bad old days (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

                  A lot of the old time Armenian-Americans were GOP (though not my mom's family--too many teachers among my relatives for that), but the newer immigrant Armenians tend to vote like other immigrant groups, which is to say, not for the Republicans.  

                    I remember back in 1982 explaining how for my family the political views of the candidates were more important for us than ethnic pride; we all voted for Tom Bradley for Guv. Right now I think there is only one Armenian in the state lege, Joe Simitian, a Democratic State Senator from the San Jose area. Recently we had Paul Krekorian in the Assembly, but he is now on the L.A. City Council. There were some Armenian Republicans a while back who were from Fresno. The more successful of them, Chuck Poochigian, was the one who was demolished by Jerry Brown when he ran for AG in 2006.

              I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

              by Zack from the SFV on Fri Jun 03, 2011 at 12:54:51 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Some "early draft SoCal visualizations" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden

      per Rose Institute twitter:

      Assembly Districts
      Congressional Districts
      Senate Districts

      (Warning: links lead to ZIP files.)

  •  Anyone think Matheson might run for Senate (0+ / 0-)

    now that it looks like Chaffetz will run against Hatch? I suppose it all depends on redistricting but Matheson would surely have a better chance in an open seat situation.

    21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 10:42:49 AM PDT

    •  Gubernatorial run more likely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Even against Chaffetz, Matheson would probably do well just to lose 57-42.  Gary Herbert could face a tea party challenger which might provide Matheson an opening, but I really have no idea what he will end up doing.

  •  Gallup: Obama near record high approval! (7+ / 0-)

    "Sometimes a scream is better than a thesis." -Ralph Waldo Emerson "YEAAAAAAARGH!" -Howard Dean

    by AtomikNY on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 11:58:33 AM PDT

    •  Tomorrow's jobs reports (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, TofG, askew, MichaelNY

      The morning news has been really crying wolf about recent economic reports, though.  A lot of them have been bad this week.  MSNBC kept yelling about a double-dip.  I just hope tomorrow's report turns out good.

      •  Wonder how much job losses are GOP governors (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, JGibson, MichaelNY

        cutting jobs. And wait until the Fall when Pa., Wisc., Michigan, etc. teachers lose jobs-just in time to hurt GOP in Ohio anti-labor vote, Wisc. recalls. Will there be a recall vote for Michigan governor and lieutenant governor? Hard to believe any auto workers and family and friends in Michigan would vote for them.

        •  Also the GOP House (6+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TofG, AtomikNY, jj32, askew, JGibson, MichaelNY

          talked all last year about jobs, and when they got in power seemed more concerned with finagling with Medicare and ranting about Planned Parenthood and NPR, so voters may be losing whatever faith they had in them.  To many voters, Obama's job creation record may be disappointing, but at least he's trying and seems to care (and even unimpressive job growth is much better than what he inherited 2 1/2 years ago.)

          •  I think that is exactly it (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

            People like him personally, appreciate he is trying and see the Republicans refusing to offer even a modicum of cooperation. If the damn economy would just pick up a little he would almost be a lock. Hopefully, the shaky numbers of the last couple months are really just a short-term blip caused by the Arab Spring spiking oil prices and reduced productivity as a result of the Japanese earthquake.

    •  Wow, disapproval down to 39! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, MichaelNY

      Looks like it hasn't been that low since late '09. Good times.

      PS. This is probably just an outlier (perhaps due to an uncharacteristically strong one or two days), but it's still nice to see.

    •  Outlier same a-s 3 days ago, but... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, itskevin

      ...since I let myself get mildly depressed by a single bad poll in spite of knowing better, I'll let myself feel sky-high over one great poll in spite of knowing better.

      Gallup has a normal fluctuation that can look big on the surface, they had Obama at 46-45 just 3 days ago.  And they had him up 52-40 a few days before that.  And 46-45 a few days before that.  And so on.

      For all of 2010 Gallup had Obama in the 41-51 range.  The range now has become 46-53.  I'll take that.  He's doing OK right now.  Don't know if this is still just a feel-good bin Laden bounce, but it's a shot in the arm no matter what it is, and no matter how short-lived it might be.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 01:12:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I realize the "patriot program" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, DCCyclone, KingofSpades

    has always been a bit of a whitewash name

    but seeing a war criminal listed in there makes me sick.

    •  i didn't think about that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, KingofSpades

      because i generally believe 90-ish percent of GOP officeholders are patriots.

      but allen west is as far from a patriot as you can be. gross.

      18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:54:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Klobuchar is safe (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, TofG, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

    61-28 approve. 57-37 over Bachmann.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

  •  TX map co-author "100 percent sure" it will change (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, Goobergunch, MichaelNY

    TX-36, the Houston-Beaumont horseshoe, is getting some grief

    http://www.texastribune.org/...

  •  California maps out sort of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, itskevin

    http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/...

    "visualization" maps whatever that means.

  •  Judges picked for Minnesota Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Goobergunch

    http://www.mncourts.gov/...

    I have not checked it out myself yet but according to a poster on Twitter the  Minnesota judicial redistricting panel includes 2 judges appointed by Ventura (I), 1 Pawlenty (R), 1 Carlson (R), 1 Perpich (D).

  •  TX-Sen: Michael Williams out, will run for House (6+ / 0-)

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 05:31:36 PM PDT

    •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andyroo312, aggou

      Just saw this. This is double good news for the GOP as that will quite possibly give them a Hispanic Senate candidate who is likely to win the general if he can make it through the primary (and his chances are much improved by not splitting the conservative vote with Williams) and it may well give them another black congressman.

  •  Bipartisan Nevada map on the way? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY

    http://www.lvrj.com/...

    CARSON CITY -- After two highly partisan stabs at redistricting legislative and congressional districts, Democrats and Republicans in the Legislature now appear ready to work out a compromise plan that won't attract another governor veto.

    Senate Minority Leader Mike McGinness, R-Fallon, said he has assigned Sens. Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas, and James Settelmeyer, R-Minden, to develop and work with Democrats on a new plan to redraw the districts to reflect population changes.

    •  Wow, I didn't think this was possible in NV. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

      by aggou on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 06:14:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My guess: GOP more scared of courts than Dems (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, sawolf, MichaelNY

      The state is trending Democratic, and it's easy for the delegation to become 3-1 in our favor very quickly.  A court-drawn map is highly likely to draw a 2-1-1 map, since that frankly is the reality of what's "fair" in today's Nevada.

      The Republicans really want to keep what now is NV-02 and also protect Heck, making it 2-2.  Dems might or might not agree to letting Heck have a small marginal improvement in exchange for the Washoe/rurals seat becoming a little less Republican.  The GOP would live with that, it's really what they want.  But a court might not do that, a court just as easily to leave Heck badly exposed while shoring up the one safe GOP seat that doesn't need shoring up.

      The other thing the GOP might be fearing is that if they lose the special election suit in the state Supreme Court, and ballot royale is reinstated, then a Kate Marshall win hopelessly complicates things for the GOP and creates the possibility for a 4-0(!) Democratic sweep in 2012.  I can see them wanting to negotiate a map that avoids that at all cost.

      This, of course, all is just my speculation.  atdnext is the authority here on the inside goings-on in Nevada.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 07:45:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I honestly don't see why Dems want to compromise (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        If a court map produces a safe Las Vegas seat, a Lean/Likely D suburban seat, keeps Heck's a tossup and makes NV-02 better than currently there is little downside to that than letting them lock away 1 seat and have a second favorable seat.

        I think a court drawn map gives us 4-0 or at the very least 3-1 by 2016 whereas a bipartisan gerrymander guarantees 3-1.

  •  A bit off topic, but I wanted to share... (5+ / 0-)

    This little kernel of misogynistic goodness (and ensuing smackdown) from across the ditch.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jun 02, 2011 at 08:53:49 PM PDT

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