This diary was cross posted from Red Racing Horses
This morning, the Democrats in the Illinois General Assembly released their gerrymander of Illinois's Congressional Districts.
The map set out to achieve a few important things for Illinois Democrats
It condensed Republicans into 5-6 districts in a neutral year
It made Bob Dold's reelection nearly impossible. Democrats in Illinois have been annoyed for years that they haven't been able to take over the socially moderate, fisclally conservative 10th district.
It maintained four VRA seats: Three black and one hispanic.
It protected Dan Lipinski, arguably Speaker Mike Madigan's top priority in redistricting. Lipinski's seat is filled with conservadem labor types, and Lipinski represents the district's intersts well. Our friends at Daily Kos Elections can't stand him, but he really is a good fit for his district. The 3rd kept its blue collar core, and shed the home of Jason Atkinson, a "progressive" running in a primary against Dan Lipinski, and placed his home in Burr Ridge into an open district, hoping that the new district will be enticing enough to leave Lipinski alone.
The map pairs a few pairs of incumbent Republicans. Together are freshmen Joe Walsh and Randy Hultgren in an exburban Republican vote sink, Peter Roskam and Judy Biggert in a DuPage County vote sink, Aaron Schock and freshman Bobby Schilling, and finally,Don Manzullo and freshman Adam Kinzinger are paired in another vote sink.
The map has the potential to produce a Democratic majority of 13-5 in the best of years, however, a neutral year will yield a 12-6 delegation. Interestingly, Lipinski's 3rd Congressional District is left more vulnerable to Republicans in a good year, however, it will be safer for every DKEr's least favorite Democrat in a primary. East St. Louis based Illinois's 12th Congressional District, currently represented by labor style Democrat Jerry Costello, is left at D+2. While safe for Costello, the district could fall in an open seat situation, and is trending towards the GOP by the year.
Individual analysis of each district is below the fold.
The map may appear fairly innocuous from a far, however, it is a strong Democratic gerrymander.
Illinois Congressional Map
IL-1: Bobby Rush (D-Chicago). South Side VRA Black district. 80.7% Obama. Safe D for the former Black Panther. This district includes the University of
Chicago. ~D+28
Illinois's First Congressional District
IL-2: Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Chicago). This district keeps the VRA happy by staying a black majority seat. However, it extends down into Kankakee County, where it picks up a lot of unfortunate rural white Republican voters, including Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Manteo), who would not run here under any circumstances. Safe D. 81% Obama. ~D+28
Illinois's Second Congressional District
IL-3: Dan Lipinski (D-Western Springs). The map gets interesting here, as IL-3 loses a lot of its Chicago territory. However, it retains enough to stay at 58.4% Obama and 40.3% McCain, and its PVI would probably be somewhere between D+4 and D+5. Conservadem Dan Lipinski would represent this district filled with blue collar Reagan Democrats well. Speaker Mike Madigan, a Democratic machine affiliated friend of Congressman Lipinski's father and former US Representative Bill Lipinski, basically drew the whole map around this district, as he wanted Lipinski to be safe from a primary from the left, yet still not vulnerable from the right. Dan Lipinski will continue to annoy progressives everywhere, and will also likely represent this district for years to come. However, at only 58% Obama, this district could be vulnerable in a wave year, so I'll call it Likely D, but Safe D in 2012, and in most years.
Illinois's Third Congressional District
IL-4: Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago). The Fourth District is an extremely ugly VRA compliant hispanic seat, comprising of two crescent shape swaths of Chicago connected by the Tri-State Tollway (I-294). This monstrosity of a district combines Chicago's Puerto Rican and Mexican communities, who ironically, don't seem to associate with each other much, except for their Congressional District. Safe D at 80.4% Obama, ~D+30 PVI.
Illinois's Fourth Congressional District
IL-5: Mike Quigley (D-Chicago). This district contains much of downtown, along with Lincoln Park's yuppies, and a lot of blue collar areas of the North Side of Chicago. Mike Quigley, a rare, clean Cook County Democratic reformer, will have no problem holding onto this 69.9%, ~D+20 Obama seat.
Note: This district was colored oddly on Google Maps. It is the pale yellow district that includes O'Hare Airport.
Illinois's Fifth Congressional District
IL-6: Peter Roskam (R-Wheaton).
This suburban Chicago district contains the most ancestrally Republican areas of the Chicagoland area. It is what has commonly been referred to as the "DuPage County Republican vote sink" that Democrats were expected to draw. It also picks up heavily Republican Palatine from Cook County. This 51.3% Obama R+3 or R+4 district is a 5% improvement for Congressman Roskam, and will be in Republican hands for the decade. Congressman Roskam is 4th in Republican House Leadership after only his third term in Congress, and has a bright future in Republican Leadership in this comfortable district. Safe R with Roskam, one of the big winners of Illinois redistricting.
-Note: This district also contains the home of Judy Biggert (R-Hinsdale), a graduate of my high school, but contains little of her current base. At 75 by the time 2012 rolls around, she is widely expected to defer to Congressman Roskam and retire.
Illinois's Sixth Congressional District
IL-7: Danny Davis (D-Chicago). This is a heavily black VRA compliant West/South Side Congressional District. Congressman Davis is rumored to be retiring, but Democrats will have no problem holding this 89.4%, ~D+38(!) Obama seat. Safe D.
Note- for some reason, the western part of the district wouldn't show up on Google Maps. The whole western portion of the seat is cut off, but is visible when looking at the map of IL-4.
Illinois's Seventh Congressional District
IL-8: Vacant. Veteran Tammy Duckworth and 2010 failed Treasurer Candidate Raja Krishnamoorthi are rumored to be vying for this seat in the Democratic Primary. It is possible that this suburban/exburban district could be vulnerable in a wave election, but at 61.3% Obama, it is likely out of reach for Team R at ~D+7. Likely/Safe D.
Illinois's Eighth Congressional District
IL-9: Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston). This northside suburban district starts in Rogers Park, includes heavily Democratic Evanston, home of Northwestern University, and stretches all the way through wealthy and heavily conservative suburban areas of the North Shore, and middle class conservative areas of Arlington Heights. It is a monstrosity in terms of keeping communities of interest together, but will stay safe for Rep Schakowsky. It will also be my home district (by about a few blocks...), and includes the home of US Rep. Robert Dold (R-Kenilworth), who would certainly not run a Kamikaze mission in this 68.5% Obama ~D+15, Safe D district.
Illinois's Ninth Congressional District
IL-10: Vacant. Rep Robert Dold may run in this 63% Obama, Lake County based exburban/suburban seat, as his home is about 5 minutes from the southern border. This district combines heavily Democratic and hispanic Waukegan with the heavily Jewish and limousine liberal towns of Highland Park, Glencoe, and Deerfield, which combined to vote nearly 75% for President Obama (Oy...). These very liberal areas drown out the reddish exburban areas that make up most of Lake County, and ruby red Lake Forest. While one may say this ~D+8 seat is only 2% more Democratic than his current seat, it contains areas that will not swing for any Republican, not even Mark Kirk or Bob Dold. Likely D with Dold in 2012, but generally Safe D, even in wave years.
Illinois's Tenth Congressional District
IL-11: Vacant. This brand new Aurora/Joliet based exburban district was drawn by Speaker Madigan as a new Democratic seat to attract Lipinski primary challenger Justin Atkinson, and to shore up Dan Lipinski by taking out hostile areas of IL-3 that could vote against him in a primary. It could also serve as a comeback district for Bill Foster, a 1.5 term Democrat who lost to freshman Congressman Randy Hultgren in 2010. The moderate Foster is quite wealthy, and would like to get his way back into Congress. This 61.2% Obama district also has a fairly large Hispanic population, and is trending away from the GOP. ~D+7. Safe D, but MAYBE vulnerable in a large wave year.
Illinois's Eleventh Congressional District
IL-12: Jerry Costello (D-Belleville). This district includes blue collar areas of the Illinois section of Metro St. Louis, and more Democratic parts of SW Illinois. The PVI of this East St. Louis based 54.7% Obama district would be just around D+2, but Congressman Costello, who has served since 1987, will be safe in this seat for as long as he wants it. Safe D for Costello, however, it would move into a toss-up/perhaps tilt D if Congressman Costello retires. It's worth noting that SW Illinois is trending towards the GOP, so this district could have a truly EVEN PVI (adjusted for the Obama home-state effect, of course) by later in the decade.
Illinois's Twelfth Congressional District
IL-13: Tim Johnson (R-Urbana). This district, stretching from the Missouri border all the way to near the Indiana border, is another COI nightmare. The Republican base in this district consists of farmers and suburbanites living in "suburbs" of Bloomington and Springfield. The Democratic base consists of labor Democrats in Bloomington, college town liberals in Champaign, and government workers in Springfield. I'd say that Congressman Johnson would have a 60% chance of holding this 54.2%, EVEN/D+.5 PVI seat in 2012. In most years, this seat would tilt/lean R. This would be the 13th district Democrats would win, and the 6th that Republicans would win.
Illinois's Thirteenth Congressional District
IL-14: Freshmen Congressmen Joe Walsh (R-McHenry) and Randy Hultgren (R-St. Charles). This 50.7% Obama district is something a northwest/western suburban/exburban vote sink, at ~R+3 PVI. This district is comprised of both Congressman Walsh's and Congressman Hultgren's bases, each making up roughly 1/3 of the district. The other third comes from other districts. While Congressman Hultgren has 30,000 more constituents in the seat, neither Congressman is entrenched, and this primary could go either way. Congressman Joe Walsh, however, should be favored. The Tea Party favorite Walsh had a strong fundraising quarter, far stronger than Hultgrens. Rep Walsh also hosts more constituent events than any other of the 435 Members of Congress. He has a lot of name recognition in his district, far better than any other freshman Rep in Illinois. Congressman Walsh also is a tireless campaigner, and gives a very dynamic stump speech, as compared to the slightly boring, yet very smart Hultgren, a former State Senator and favorite of the establishment. Rep Walsh will be able to bring in national fundraising money as well, as he is one of the most frequent Congressmen on cable news. Both are fantastic legislators in their own right, so either way, this Safe R seat (yes, R+2/R+3 in Illinois are Safe R) will be represented well in Washington.
Illinois's Fourteenth Congressional District
IL-15: John Shimkus (R-Collinsville). The solid conservative and widely respected former high school teacher from downstate Illinois will have no problem being easily reelected in this agriculture based 55.5% McCain seat. Safe R in all years. R+9.
Illinois's Fifteenth Congressional District
IL-16: Don Manzullo (R-Eagan). Rep Manzullo will be 68 by the time this rural/exburban Chicago vote sink holds its next election in 2012. Adam Kinzinger (R-Manteo) would not live in this seat, however, he may run here, as it contains some of his current territory. Manzullo has never been known as a great fundrasier/campaigner, and will feel pressure from the Republican Party to step aside for the young, exciting, and charismatic freshman Congressman from Manteo. Kinzinger gives great speeches, and is a naturally gifted campaigner, and he may also scare Manzullo, who hasn't had to campaign tirelessly for years. If a primary between the two materializes, look for it to be a battle of conservatives trying to push to the right. Kinzinger will have more Tea Party support, but it'll be an uphill battle to knock off Manzullo. If the GOP in Illinois has its way, Manzullo will retire, and Kinzinger will have a long, prosperous political career in this 50.1% Obama, R+4 or R+5 Safe R district (again, those seats do not fall in Illinois).
Illinois's Sixteenth Congressional District
IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R-Colona). This industrial district loses its ugly arms into Springfield and Decatur, but picks up all of Peoria and Rockford. At 60% Obama, this D+6 or D+7 district will likely be too Democratic for Schilling to handle, however, he may as well try, in case Democrats nominate Phil Hare 2.0 (or the man himself!). Rep Aaron Schock also lives here, but he'd just run in the far friendlier IL-18, which contains much of his current territory. Likely/Safe D in most years
Illinois's Seventeenth Congressional District
IL-18: Vacant, but Aaron Schock (R-Peoria) would run here. This rural, agricultural based Western Illinois vote sink will be represented well by the youngest member of Congress, who just turned 30 this past week (happy birthday, Congressman!) He received quite a present in the form of an R+8 54% McCain Safe Republican district, that he can hold for as long as he wants. Congressman Schock is young, articulate, and a great campaigner. Look him up, his story is very interesting. He is one of the nicest Members of Congress that I have met (and I have met many Congressmen). Safe R.
Illinois's Eighteenth Congressional District
In conclusion, this map would produce a 12-6 D:R delegation in most years, but could produce up to a 10-8 D:R delegation in Republican wave years. The Democrats have drawn 5 very effective Republican vote sinks, and one Tilt Republican swing seat, that will usually be held by Republicans.
Please let me know what you think of my analysis!
Thanks-
RockRibbedR.
By the way, a big thank you to TwoHundredSeventy for his number crunching this morning!