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I know you've been waiting all season long, but it's finally here, boys and girls!

This is only the proposed plan, of course, but I was too excited to unwrap it, so I just couldn't wait. More linkage:

IL state Senate website with PDFs showing township names

• Writeup from Center Square Journal

• Another writeup from the Chicago Tribune

Please post more links in comments. And Merry Redistmas to all!

UPDATE: An award of the Order of Conspicuous Merit goes to longtime Swingnut sapelcovits, for putting together this chart of every representative's hometowns and where they'd wind up under this new map.

Member Party Hometown Current District New District
Bobby Rush (D) Chicago IL-01 IL-01
Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) Chicago IL-02 IL-02
Dan Lipinski (D) Western Springs IL-03 IL-03
Luis Gutierrez (D) Chicago IL-04 IL-04
Mike Quigley (D) Chicago IL-05 IL-05
Peter Roskam (R) Wheaton IL-06 IL-06
Danny Davis (D) Chicago IL-07 IL-07
Joe Walsh (R) McHenry IL-08 IL-14
Jan Schakowsky (D) Evanston IL-09 IL-09
Bob Dold (R) Kenilworth IL-10 IL-09
Adam Kinzinger (R) Manteno IL-11 IL-02
Jerry Costello (D) Bellevue IL-12 IL-12
Judy Biggert (R) Hinsdale IL-13 IL-05
Randy Hultgren (R) Winfield IL-14 IL-14
Tim Johnson (R) Urbana IL-15 IL-15
Donald Manzullo (R) Leaf River IL-16 IL-16
Bobby Schilling (R) Colona IL-17 IL-17
Aaron Schock (R) Peoria IL-18 IL-18
John Shimkus (R) Collinsville IL-19 IL-13

This diary is brought to you by Daily Kos Elections, an official Daily Kos sub-site. Please read our Mission Statement. Our focus is on electoral politics rather than policy. Welcome aboard!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:29 AM PDT.

Also republished by Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  What a great present... (17+ / 0-)

    To find under my tree.

    Nicely done, Springfield. Nicely done.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:37:06 AM PDT

    •  Now we need some good news from (7+ / 0-)

      California. I happen to think any nonpartisan map will have to favor Democrats more than the current map does.

      "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

      by ArkDem14 on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:45:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A request (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, NMLib

      Could someone (or someones) take a look at the townships file and see where each current rep is now situated?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:46:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nice present indeed! (9+ / 0-)

      I only have a few minor quibbles.  They could have drawn Bill Foster into the 11th, being that he is likely running again in 2012.  Governor Quinn only got 42% in the current IL-14; Foster got 46% so he ran ahead of the statewide ticket in 2010 but still couldn't survive the GOP tsunami.  Now there's a far better 11th that Quinn probably tied in, and yet it would not have cost them much to put Foster's home of Batavia in to the district.  Indeed, it might have improved things on the Obama presidential vote, because they are including a bit too much of Downers Grove to my liking and a simple trade of Batavia for the Downers Grove areas in the district would probably be a wash if not a slight improvement.  Still, as it is, the 11th is 61% or so Obama, which is right on the threshold where I stop worrying for an Illinois seat about whether it will fall into the Democratic column, even in 2010.  Kerry would have likely just squeaked by in this seat in 2004, but there has been a bit of a blueing effect throughout the Chicago metro area since then that this is probably a good enough district.

      The new 8th looks really good, and Melissa Bean would still be in Congress if she had this district last fall to run in.  Unless the Republicans nominate a Mark Kirk kind of politician to run here, I like our chances a lot, especially with Obama at the top of the ticket in Illinois.  

      As for the 10th, what they did was merge all the Democratic areas of Lake County together while dumping the really GOP areas into the 14th or the 6th.  In northern Cook they removed the GOP parts that were in Palatine and Wheeling and swapped some other GOP areas with the 9th.  The more aggressive approach to this district would have it going south but it is likely that Jan Schakowksy vetoed any major tinkering of her district, so they did not do that.  Still, even though this district doesn't seem to improve much more over the already strong Democratic margins it had previously, the addition of new territory will likely render it tougher for Bob Dold.  We need a Lake County Democrat to run here to really maximize the territorial changes.

      So that's 3 pickups already in the Chicago area that look reasonably good.  Then they almost surely recaptured the 17th with the addition of both parts of Rockford and Peoria.  Perhaps they did overkill here.  I think just the addition of Rockford would have made this district too tough for Bobby Schiller, who I believe was a fluke anyhow.  So that's clearly 4 pickups.

      Then the 5th pickup is probably the 13th, although at 55% Obama, this was probably a 47-48% Kerry district in 2004.  It is thus swingy rather than a surefire pickup.  I feel reasonably confident, though, because Obama at the top of the ticket will again bring out students at Urbana-Champaign and Bloomington-Normal, along with minority voters on Springfield's east side.  Also, none of the three Republican congressmen out of whose districts this one was fashioned - Shimkus, Johnson, and Kinzinger - are anywhere close to moderate enough to run here.  And finally, none of the three represent a large enough portion of the district to really have a base in it.  So, I then count a fifth pickup.

      Costello got slightly weakened here with the addition of McCain-carrying Jefferson County to his current district.  He will be fine as long as he wants the district, but unless we run a conservative Democrat to replace him, we might lose this district long-term.  That is perhaps the only downside to this map, other than not drawing Bill Foster into the 11th.

  •  Costello (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, JGibson, nycyoungin, James Allen

    Would he be ok with this? Some of the northern St. Louis area is going into the mid-state swing district, leaving him with a bunch of red areas further south.

    That Iowa border district should be fairly easy for a Dem to hold and isn't nearly as ugly as the current 17th.

    SSP poster. 41, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:45:00 AM PDT

    •  He'll be fine in this seat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but it'll likely flip by the end of the decade, in my opinion.

      17, R, IL-10. Summer (Internship starting in June): DC-AL. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

      by IllinoyedR on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:01:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why do you say that? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The St. Louis portion is exceptionally Democratic, and many of the rural areas are rather like Kentucky; very open to blue dog local Democrats.

        "If people doled out nutkickings where they are deserved, the world would be a better place." -Marcel Inhoff

        by ArkDem14 on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:32:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  he already represents a lot of these counties... (0+ / 0-)

      From what I can see, all they did was add Jefferson County with Mt. Vernon (about 40k people) to meet the population deficit.  Otherwise, he got exactly the same district as he has now.  Madison County is already cut the way it is in this proposal and that finger is Democrat-vote rich as it includes Alton and East Alton.

  •  Hard to review by phone! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:45:21 AM PDT

  •  Mazel Tov, Illinois (5+ / 0-)

    This looks really solid. I love, love, love the Springfield-Champaign-Decatur district.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:49:54 AM PDT

  •  Comments (8+ / 0-)

    for some reason, Hyde Park is still split between IL-01 and IL-02. I remain in IL-01, as does Barack Obama.

    All Democratic incumbents appear to remain in the same district. Sure enough, Lipinski primary challenger John Atkinson appears to have been moved to the new Joliet-Aurora district. It also looks like both Ilya Sheyman and Brad Schneider have been kept in the 10th.

    As for Republicans, they have mostly been thrown in with Democrats or each other. Kinzinger is in Jackson's district, Dold is in Schakowsky's district, Biggert is in Quigley's district, and Hultgren and Roskam have been thrown in together. Schilling pretty much has no district to run in.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:52:26 AM PDT

  •  This sucks (0+ / 0-)

    Sliced my little area of Naperville away from the rest of the town.

    I am voting with farm country.

  •  Don't want to pressure the SSP labs here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, James Allen

    but when do you think you'll guys cook up the data?

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:57:18 AM PDT

  •  Quite surprising (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, sulthernao

    That they went after Biggert, many people thought she would be left alone or put in a Republican vote sink. She's got nowhere to run now, Kizinger would probably win a primary in the current 11th. Nice job Michael Madigan!!!

    19, gay male, IL 7, MN 4 (College)

    by knickelbein5 on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:12:10 AM PDT

  •  Dave Wasserman (7+ / 0-)

    Initial calculations: new #IL08, #IL10 and #IL11 are both easily over 62% Obama, new #IL13 is 55%, new #IL17 is 60%. Wow.

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      IL-08 was 56% Obama...IL-10 was 61% Obama...IL-11 was 53%...IL-13 was 54%...IL-17 was 56%.  Only IL-08 and IL-11 strike me as dramatic changes.  How much does this map hurt Bob Dold(!).

      Numbers from:

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:38:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Remember, Bob Dold! barely won the first time (5+ / 0-)

        this time he has to deal with new territory, a more Democratic district, higher turnout, and not facing Dan Seals.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:43:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is it just incrementally more Democratic? (0+ / 0-)

          Obama percentages are a bit hard to work with in Illinois.  The other factors are important, but except maybe for that last one, they'd be true in his current district.  Interesting to see how much this one is a shift.

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:46:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  9th is massively more Democratic than old 10th (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, sulthernao, 4jkb4ia

            they took the smallest sliver they could of Bob Dold!s district that included his house, and pasted it onto a nearly intact 9th CD currently owned by Jan Shakowsky.  Dold! has to move if he has any chance of re-election.  The 9th is toxic for Dold!s political future.

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:59:55 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  They're truer Democrats (0+ / 0-)

            The drop off from Obama to congress 2010 is lower in the areas the 10th picks up than what it loses.  People in north Cook County are, as a friend put it once 'shitty Democrats'.  I was raised in the area, a house in my parent's neighborhood had a Kirk for Senate sign and a Seals for Congress sign in the yard...go figure.

      •  Bob Dold! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James L

        is badly hurt unless he moves, and hurt regardless if he does move.  Bob Dold!s home has been drawn into Jan Schakowsky's district.  I want to see how many votes Bob Dold! gets out of the LakeFront Boystown wards against Shakowsky, lol.  Of course, if Bob Dold! has any aspirations of remaining in Congress he will need to move out of the new 9th CD.

        "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

        by walja on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:34:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  BTW, with Dems being Dems (7+ / 0-)

    I expected a very meh map (compactness, blah blah blah), but Illinois gave me a very special surprise this morning.

    NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

    by nycyoungin on Fri May 27, 2011 at 09:15:15 AM PDT

  •  This map is so much nicer to look at (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    than the previous one.   I love what they did though, I can't wait for the number crunchers to do their thing here!  Wish I were one and could help out.  

  •  This map is a joke (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The gerrymandering is ridiculous.

    Give me the Iowa way.

  •  So the pickups... (4+ / 0-)

    Looks to me like the new 8th, 10th, 11th and 17th are near certain pickups and the 13th is at least Lean Dem.  Am I missing anything?  Sounds like a map that could yield 5 pickups.

  •  I drew some of the districts in DRA (7+ / 0-)

    to the best of my ability. I gave up trying to do the collar county districts, because it's just too fiddly.

    IL-10 goes from 61% Obama to ~63% Obama.
    IL-12 goes up a point from 54% to 55% Obama.
    IL-15 goes from 50% McCain to 54% Obama.
    IL-16 goes from 53% Obama to about 50% Obama.
    IL-17 goes from 56% Obama to about 59-60% Obama - Schock and Schilling are both in this district.
    IL-18 goes from 50% McCain to 54% McCain.
    IL-19 renumbered to IL-13 is 56% McCain, up from 54% McCain. - Shimkus and Johnson are both in this district.

    Not sure where Kinzinger lives; somewhere in McLean County, I presume, but it's split between IL-13 and IL-18.

  •  Question about the 18th (0+ / 0-)

    Why did they leave so much river country to the 18th.  It seems like at least some wasted Democratic votes, especially at Quincy.  Am I wrong here?

  •  From Cook Political (9+ / 0-)

    The rest is behind a firewall but this is from the front page.  He says what I was thinking.  This map should produce a change of +5D/-6R or +4D/-5R

    Illinois Map Could Axe Six House Republicans

    House Editor David Wasserman writes: If beauty is in the eye of the gerrymanderer, the new Congressional map leaked by Illinois Democrats is a priceless work of art. While most in the Beltway have fixated on the results of a special election for one seat in upstate New York, Democrats in Springfield are on the verge of quietly passing a new Congressional map that could net them a jackpot of five seats next November, more than a fifth of the seats they now need to take back control of the House. In the process, six Republican incumbents could be left without districts.

  •  6th and 10th still red (0+ / 0-)

    I don't see how the new 6th nor the 10th will change to Democrat hands.
    There is still a LOT of old money in those districts, and the 6th added the Barrington-Hawthorn Woods-Lake Zurich axis.
    By shifting the EGV and Itasca area out of the 6th, it figures easier to keep red.

    •  Pretty sure the 6th is supposed to be a votesink (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, rtaylor352

      also, the 10th adds Zion and Round Lake which I believe are fairly blue.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:40:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  6th isn't for a Dem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      The 6th is a GOP sink for Roskam.  

      •  Roskam would be pretty hard to beat in any case... (4+ / 0-)

        better to give Roskam a vote sink and pick off the freshmen GOPers, which is what they are doing.  All these moves in the Chicago area I expected (and indeed drew variants of in my map a few weeks ago).  They were a bit more aggressive than I anticipated downstate, however.  Rather than choosing to firm up Costello to 57% Obama or thereabouts, and then shifting the downstate cities district north to Peoria, they are instead opting to make the 17th a bit more Democratic than currently to get rid of Schiller for sure by including both Peoria and Rockford.  They are then counting on Southern Illinois to be more amenable to voting Democratic on the congressional ballot than it perhaps is on the presidential level.  Costello should be fine but I worry about the district long-term after he retires.  I see the 13th flipping next year, but only because none of the surrounding GOP congressmen (Kinzinger, Shimkus, or Johnson) represent much of the district and are moderate enough to win in a 55% Obama swing seat.  (The reason I say swing here is because Bush almost certainly narrowly carried the seat in 2004).

    •  10th (5+ / 0-)

      Still has old money in Lake Forest/Lake Bluff, but wealthy Highland Park and Glencoe are good Dem areas.  Plus increasingly Hispanic and Asian areas of Wheeling and Northfield Township.  There are a lot of ticket splitters in the area, but the 10th went Republican in 2010 with a good candidate against the worst candidate the Dems could muster (which is to say ideal conditions) by about 2%.  Move the needle just a bit toward the D end, run a campaign with anyone not named Dan Seals.  Should end well.

      They can have the 6th, we weren't using it anyway.

  •  Historical perspective (6+ / 0-)

    The Michigan Five Fluke Freshmen is term given to five members (Raymond Clevenger, Billie Farnum, John Mackie, Paul Todd, and Wes Vivian) of the U.S. House of Representatives from Michigan that were elected in the Democratic landslide of 1964 and subsequently defeated just two years later by a Republican resurgence. All of the five were one-term congressmen. It was the last time that a state would have five freshmen members of Congress defeated for reelection.

    It sounds like we could potentially have a similar scenario afoot in Illinois next year -- though number five, Hultgren, would appear more likely to either retire or get into a primary battle with Walsh or Roskam.

    •  Hultgren will go against Walsh (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, sulthernao, 4jkb4ia, James Allen

      Not only are they in the same district, it's a perfect contrast Conservative Establishment Republican vs. Tea Party Crazy Republican.

      He'd have no shot against Roskam.  They are very similar ideologically, but Roskam would have the advantage because of his leadership position, seniority, money, etc...

    •  Wow @ the MI-07 district in 1964-66 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, James Allen

      Democrat Mackie won by a 31% margin in 1964 then lost by 8% in 1966.  He had to have had a scandel for that to happen.

      •  There was a pre-1966 redistricting in most states (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao, James Allen

        as a result of the Supreme Court's "One man, one vote" decision.

        •  ok, makes sense (0+ / 0-)

          I was thinking the redistricting was just in 1962.

        •  Let's not forget (7+ / 0-)

          How extremely unusual 1964 was. LBJ got the highest share of the popular vote anyone got, ever. Though Barry Goldwater's brand of conservatism soon would come to dominate the GOP, he was cast as a wild extremist who was, I'd argue, considered more unacceptable then than even Sarah Palin would be today. (Even if Palin's the nominee, there's no arguing she'd win more states than Goldwater did.) I think we may never have an election like that again.

          Democrats won 37 seats in 1964, riding Johnson's coattails. Republicans were reduced to just 140 seats! Yet Johnson's unpopularity soon grew, and social upheavals of all sorts (Vietnam, civil rights, women's rights) began to undermine the Democratic coalition. Not so surprisingly, Dems got hit with a counter-wave in `66, losing 47 seats.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri May 27, 2011 at 11:43:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The ironic thing is... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Then-Sen. Goldwater is today frequently touted as an example of a moderate, principled, wise Republican. Which he was, if you ignore his vote against the Civil Rights Act of 1964 (one of several voting against it on constitutional or procedural grounds and not because of support for segregation or Jim Crow; he later said it was the biggest regret of his political career and he was glad it passed) and his cowboy attitude toward Vietnam and the prospect of nuclear warfare.

            Turbulent times, the 1960s. Sometimes I feel like the past few years are pretty comparable to those years. We had big Democratic waves in 2006 and 2008, an even bigger Republican wave in 2010, and right now, the early signs are pointing to another Democratic wave in 2012.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 27, 2011 at 05:29:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  1966 Redistricting (0+ / 0-)

          I'm not sure about pre-1966, but that round of redistricting left Flint in the seat, so I don't think it was exactly GOP-friendly either way.

          You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

          by Samara Morgan Dem on Fri May 27, 2011 at 07:19:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Mackie (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        No, he just spent more time fixing up the Virginia farm he bought than campaigning for reelection.  He won so big in 1964 because he was a popular state transportation or highway comissioner then.

        You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

        by Samara Morgan Dem on Fri May 27, 2011 at 07:15:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Not sure I love the 14th (0+ / 0-)

    What's going on with this one?

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri May 27, 2011 at 10:53:03 AM PDT

    •  nor I.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Nor do I like how Dekalb and the Democratic areas in Lasalle County are being wasted in the 16th.  It would have made more sense in my view to put Manzullo and Walsh together and drag Hultgren south into all the brand-new territory, hoping that Kinzinger would primary him there.  Either one would have a lot of brand new territory, and the bloody primary would perhaps provide an opening for the right kind of Democrat.

  •  Even more amusing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Imagine how the IL GOP delegation will get along over the next year or so knowing many of them will either face suicidal races or have to face one another.

  •  Million dollar question: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is this a starting point or a fait accompli?

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri May 27, 2011 at 11:19:09 AM PDT

    •  Not a lot of time to change (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, andgarden

      Redistricting has to be done by the end of the month in order to be able to pass with a simple majority.

    •  Fait accompli (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      andgarden, ChadmanFL

      for all the inside-baseball reasons that Minnesota Mike mentions.  For them to pass the map with a simple majority, the deadline is June 1.  Then the legislature to pass the map before July 1 with a 3/5 majority, which  means getting a few Republican votes in the House.  After July 1, the thing would get kicked to a bi-partisan 8 member commission, which we do not want.

      •  I do know of the deadline (0+ / 0-)

        But my experience is that for legislators, it's never too late to attempt to negotiate.

        That said, if the delegation is on board (and I assume they must be), this should sail through.

        Without partisan data, I can't analyze completely, but your description of what they've done gives me confidence that this is a good way to go.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri May 27, 2011 at 12:05:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  mind you... (5+ / 0-)

          they are not drawing the most optimal map here.  Madigan is going out of his way to protect Lipinski against a primary from Atkinson (to the point where that tiny little finger of the 11th going into Cook County grabs his home).  Schakowsky also doesn't seem to be playing much ball here with the remap.  It would be far easier to go after Dold if the 10th were to protrude a bit more south into some of Evanston/northern-most Chicago, and it would not hurt Schakowsky really to take a bit more suburban areas.  She would still have a 65-70% Obama district either way.  

          But being that the political reality always has been from the get-go that the Chicago 7 would have a lot of say on how the Chicago area got drawn, this is about as aggressive a map as you can draw after you factor that in.  So, I generally like it aside from my few quibbles like not drawing Foster into the 11th and being a bit too risky downstate with the 12th and 13th.

          •  What I don't understand is (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, DCCyclone

            Why did Atkinson more-or-less announce he was running when he did? IL fixed its primary dates so they aren't insanely early anymore. Waiting another quarter would not have been ideal, but it could have led Madigan not to feel any need to protect Lipinski. Unless Atkinson was playing some sort of super-deep game to win a good district for himself.

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Fri May 27, 2011 at 12:38:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  bingo.... (0+ / 0-)

              That's my belief as well.  And it might have screwed Bill Foster out of a district all his own as a result.

            •  He announced because he was ready to do so (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, Xenocrypt

              I doubt he contemplated or anticipated redistricting taking him out of Lipinski's district.  He wanted to get a head start, and he's done just that, a great one at that.

              And does he necessarily care?  He's got a great head start like I just said, he's potentially got a jump on everyone else for a seat, and he doesn't have to beat an incumbent of his own party to pull it off.  Does he want to beat Lipinski, or just be a Congressman and serve?  I would guess the latter, it's the rare individual whose overriding personal priority is to take down a particular Member.

              43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:54:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Re this (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                joesramek, DCCyclone

                I doubt he contemplated or anticipated redistricting taking him out of Lipinski's district.  He wanted to get a head start, and he's done just that, a great one at that.

                I'm actually quite certain he was well aware of this - which is why he never actually said he was challenging Lipinski, because he didn't want to lock himself in and look foolish if he wound up against Biggert or someone else. Based on this decision, I'm pretty sure that he knew this was a distinct possibility.

                If Atkinson wasn't aware that telegraphing a challenge to Lipinski would put him on Madigan's radar, then he'd be a little bit clueless. But I really don't think he is, which is why his early announcement surprised me.

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Fri May 27, 2011 at 08:40:07 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know if it's so deep a game as that (0+ / 0-)

              Fortune favors the bold.  By announcing he turned himself from some insurance executive into a threat to be reckoned with.  I don't know if he was specifically aiming for a good district, but he probably thought it couldn't hurt his political position by getting out early when everything was slow.

              25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

              by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 03:10:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  It's a holiday weekend (0+ / 0-)

        What is the legislature's schedule prior to June 1st?  Can the IL GOP just flee till the 1st and cause the deadline to be missed?

        •  don't believe so... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, sulthernao, askew

          According to Capital Fax Report, they are saying the State Senate will hold a Sunday session to vote on this map.  

          Illinois politics aint beanbag and the state GOP already has a lot on their plate worrying about the state leg map that got released last week and is about as ruthless toward them as you can draw bearing in mind that Chicago actually lost population over the past 10 years!

    •  Madigan wouldn't (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      xcave, sulthernao, davybaby, askew

      let it out into public if he hadn't won already.

      •  I think you are right... (0+ / 0-)

        Everything about Madigan is that he is cautious and only puts a policy out there if he has the votes sewed up for it.  Case in point: Quinn only got a watered-down version of his income tax increase earlier this year after two years of effort because Madigan didn't have the votes for it among his caucus.

      •  dilatory tactics (0+ / 0-)

        Can the state GOP use any legislative tactics to delay adoption of the map long enough to require a 2/3 vote?

        •  I don't believe so... (0+ / 0-)

          Look the state legislative map passed both houses of the state legislature earlier tonight on party-line votes.  Capital Fax Report out of Springfield says they are holding a rare Sunday session to vote on the congressional map.  Rumors have been circulating since last week about the contents of the redistricting legislation and they are probably waiting to Sunday because you need to let bills sit for 24 or 48 hours before you vote on them.  But Illinois plays hardball politics, the GOP is screwed, they knew it, and other than a federal lawsuit in conjunction with MALDEF which is surely unhappy about the fact that yet again a 2nd Hispanic seat in Chicago wasn't created, I see no real options for the GOP.  

          In short, they ought to live with the consequences of having chosen such an extreme member of their party to run for governor last fall.  Had they chose the runner-up in the primary, a moderate state senator from Hinsdale in the Chicago suburbs (whom I am forgetting his name now), we would be talking about going to a bipartisan commission in July and flipping a coin like in 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001.

          •  sorry picking a name out of a hat (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I should know this now that I am an Illinoisan.  If the 8 members of the redistricting commission cannot agree on a map by September of the year ending in 01, they pick a name of a 9th member out of the Abe Lincoln Stovepipe hat in the state historical archives.  In 1981 and 2001 the Democrat's name was picked; in 1991 the Republican's.  

  •  I remember (8+ / 0-)

    all those times spent arguing with rdelbov on SSP about whether or not Jesse Jackson would be ok with several thousand new constituents in Kankakee County. He was trying to argue that the Dems wouldn't go for 13-5. Alas, this map gives Jackson all of Kankakee County.

    Dems 1, Reps 0. Bitches.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri May 27, 2011 at 11:40:29 AM PDT

  •  So, what's the bottom line, 12-6? (0+ / 0-)
    •  I'd say more likely 13-5 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      12-6 is probably a worst case scenario.

    •  12-5-1 (7+ / 0-)

      is how I would score this, with the new 13th the swingy seat.  Still, it will probably be 13-5 after 2012 because Obama will drag out the students from U of I and Illinois State, along with the minority voters on Springfield's east side.  Also, the GOP doesn't anybody moderate enough to run here.  I worry, though, about 2014.

      •  If we win them in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        With real candidates (not like the Republicans random businessmen class of 2010) I would expect them to be smart and savy enough to lock down.  Quinn won't be at the ticket in 2014, someone else will (Rahm? Haha) and Durbin.  Hard to predict the environment that far down the line.  

        •  fair enough (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          you are right, 2014 is so far down the line that predicting what the electoral landscape will be three years away is probably a fool's errand.  That being said, I have two contradictory opinions on the new 13th they are creating:

          1) There is risk in drawing a seat dependent on students and minority voters in east Springfield to vote; both constituencies came out heavily for Obama in 2008, which is how this district voted 55% Obama that year.  Knowing the Kerry precinct data for this part of the state, however, I can tell you that Kerry tanked here in 2004 because of depressed turnout - Springfield city as a whole even voted for Bush.  Kerry probably did no better than 47-48% in this district.

          2) On the other hand, we have never drawn these cities and regions together into a seat before.  In 1971, the courts drew a GOP gerrymander; in 1981 the courts passed a Democratic gerrymander that included Macoupin, Springfield and Decatur together in the same seat (which then in 1982 elected Dick Durbin to Congress).  In 1991, the courts then chose a GOP map which weakened Durbin's seat and by the time he ran for Senate in 1996, the Springfield seat flipped to Shimkus.  This really is the first time ever since the modern era of redistricting (one man-one vote) that one party has held total control over redistricting in Illinois, and that the Democrats can draw whatever map they chose.  (In 1981 they could not given that the courts were involved).

          Since Springfield and Urbana-Champaign have never before been in a district, and we know both regions are Democratic islands surrounded by very Republican farmland territory, I have always believed that we ought to at least try putting them together to see what we could achieve in this part of the state.  Even though I am a bit nervous about the district, I think it is at least worthwhile trying to win a seat here, and that this seat gives us a good opportunity with the right candidate.

      •  Decatur is a very Democratic city as well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Although it turned Republican in 2010, it's a big big big labor town and has lots of AA folks just like the portion of Bloomington's west side that's included in this and the north part of Champaign.

        •  problem is... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          they included all of the rest of Macon County as well, so Decatur will get drowned out by the all the hard-right GOP folks.  I hope they cut Bloomington and Normal correctly; you want to take their western sides and avoid the eastern portions.

          •  strange (0+ / 0-)

            it's the opposite in most cities

            18, D, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college next year). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon May 30, 2011 at 06:14:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

              I think you could be right, roughly speaking. In Houston, blacks are toward the east and white Repubs to the west. Austin's few blacks have historically been on the east, and now Hispanics too, while white Repubs are in the hills to the north and west. In Dallas, blacks are east and south, white Repubs in suburbs west and north. In San Antonio, the few blacks are on the east side, the white Repubs on the north and northwest, the many Hispanics southside and southwest.

              Maybe due to prevailing winds the pollution heads to the east side and people with money head the other direction? Or what?

              Sorry that we veered off-topic here, y'all.

              •  maybe it's a Texas thing? (0+ / 0-)

                in Providence the richest people live in the east, but they're all bleeding heart liberals. The least liberal part of the city is probably in the north/northwest with lots of Irish/Italians, the west and south are heavily minority. In Chicago, the south is largely black, the west is black/Latino, the north is a mix of liberal whites as well as a mix of other groups (Koreans, South Asians, Middle Easterners, Puerto Ricans), with the Republican whites (albeit not rich ones) being largely in the northwest, towards O'Hare.

                21, male, Kyoto-01 (residence) RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Sat Jun 04, 2011 at 04:59:49 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Announced Challengers? (0+ / 0-)

    How does this new map affect those Dems who already announced challenges to Republicans or those who might launch comeback bids?

    John Atkinson - He was planning to challenge Dan Lipinski, but suddenly found himself thrown into Randy Hultgren's new 14th.

    Raja Krishnamoorthi - Anyone care to handicap his competitiveness in the new suburban 8th?

    I know Brad Schneider is still the new 10th.

    Does this new map preclude the possibility of comeback bids from Bill Foster, Phil Hare, or Debbie Halvorson?

    27, Progressive Liberal Democrat, Gay Male, CA-38

    by BluntDiplomat on Fri May 27, 2011 at 12:01:13 PM PDT

  •  Candidates for these new seats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kretzy, itskevin

    John Atkinson (never going to get used to that; the city treasurer here in Virginia Beach has the same name) has been plonked down into IL-11.

    For Tim Johnson's seat, Sen. Mike Frerichs seems intriguing. He's a state Senator from the Champaign-Urbana area, and at 37 has already been elected to the Champaign County Board, County Auditor, and State Senator (and was easily re-elected in 2010). He's also huge: 6'8". Amusingly, he ran against Johnson for State Rep. way back in 1998, when he was the tender age of 25.

  •  Bottom line - Every election matters (6+ / 0-)

    Nearing election day 2010 I was sure Quinn was a goner.  His very narrow re-election basically changed the map from at best maybe a 1 or 2 seat Dem pickup in IL in 2012 to a 4 or 5 seat pickup with a loss of 5-6 republican seats.  

  •  no incumbent in IL-08, -10, -11 (0+ / 0-)

    Am I reading this correctly?

    Yes, I know one doesn't have to live in a district to represent it.  Which of the thrown-together incumbents live near enough to one of those empty new seats to run there?

    grok the "edku" -- edscan's "revelation", 21 January 2009

    by N in Seattle on Fri May 27, 2011 at 12:31:34 PM PDT

    •  No incumbents there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, N in Seattle, xcave

      and the IL-13, there are 4 open seat situations here.  I really like this map because of that.  Even the 5 ceded GOP vote sinks: IL-6, IL-14, and IL-16 upstate and IL-15 and IL-18 downstate introduce their supposed "incumbents" to a lot of new territory, leading for the possibility of much primary mischief next March!!

  •  So as far as 2012 goes... (0+ / 0-)

    Likely/Solid Dem - 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,17 = 11 seats
    Lean Dem - 10,13 = 2 seats
    Tossup - 15 - 1 seat
    Lean Rep - 14 = 1 seat
    Likely/Solid R - 6,9,18 = 3 seats

    Is this about right?  I really don't know the exact tilt of the new 14th and 15th so I could be wrong on those.

    •  14th is solid R (0+ / 0-)

      It's only about 50-51% Obama. 15th I'd put as Lean Rep depending on what kind of candidate gets in for the Dems. And you forgot the 16th, which is also solid R.

    •  From what others are saying (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the 15th actually got packed with more Republicans, should be fairly safe for Republicans actually.  I'm not sure about the 14th but it also looks like it was packed with Republicans.  I think the GOP pretty much has 5 safe seats but will probably lose everything else.

      •  yes that is what they have done (0+ / 0-)

        This is a 12-5-1 map with a likely 13-5 delegation split most years because the GOP has less moderates able to appeal to swing voters in the 13th than the other way around.  That is, unless turnout tanks like in a 2010 situation, in which case for that type of election cycle, the delegation split likely achieved under these lines is a 12-6 or an 11-7 if Costello loses/retires.

    •  more like this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Solid Dem: 1,2,3,4,5,7,9, 12 = 8 seats
      Likely Dem (with GOP incumbents elected in 2010 that cannot possibly win in 2012): 10, 17 = 2 seats
      Lean Dem: 8,11,13 = 3 seats
      Lean GOP
      Likely GOP = 14 = 1 seat
      Solid GOP = 6, 15, 16, 18 = 4 seats

      The reason I put both the 8th and 11th into the lean Dem column is because they are still districts that only barely voted for Kerry back in 2004, whereas the 10th voted more comfortably for Kerry that year.  (All things being equal, I don't consider a suburban Chicago seat to be "likely Dem" until Kerry achieved +52%).

  •  Incredible map (5+ / 0-)

    The map actually looks cleaner than the old one, and is going to flip an 11-8 GOP edge to 13-5 Dem, or possibly 12-6 if the GOP hangs on to the 13th (Springfield/Decatur/Champaign district).

    The GOP packing was done quite up on Roskam and just tossing him a super-red district was wise.

    This is 1/4 of the seats we need to flip the House back to Dem control.

  •  District Percentages from DRA (13+ / 0-)

    I was bored today so I mapped out the new districts in DRA. Most of the new lines matched the DRA lines but there were a few problems around Sprinfield, Champaign, and a small part of Chicago but it shouldn't make a huge difference. I'll work on compiling the racial stats and have those up soon.

    1 - 80.7/18.6 Obama/McCain
    2 - 81.0/18.3
    3 - 58.4/40.3
    4 - 80.4/18.3
    5 - 69.9/28.7
    6 - 51.3/47.4
    7 - 89.4/10.0
    8 - 61.3/37.3
    9 - 68.5/30.3
    10 - 63.0/36.0
    11 - 61.2/37.6
    12 - 54.7/43.6
    13 - 54.2/43.9
    14 - 50.7/48.0
    15 - 42.8/55.5
    16 - 50.1/48.1
    17 - 59.7/38.8
    18 - 44.5/54.0

    21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:14:06 PM PDT

    •  Thanks! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I was going to try to do this later when I got a more stable wireless connection that didn't crash on me when I tried to open up the redistricting program.

    •  You could do us all a huge favor (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, JonathanMN, drobertson

      if you found a way to post the DRF file you end up with for download. Perhaps David will offer to host?

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:17:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So... (4+ / 0-)

      Obama percentages:
      70 and up: 5 districts (1, 2, 4, basically 5, and 7)
      60-69.8: 5 districts (8, 9, 10, 11, basically 17)
      Greater than Obama's national percentage of 52.9, less than 59.7: 3 districts (3, 12, 13)
      Also won by Obama: 3 districts (6, 14, 16)
      2 districts left...18 and 15.

      25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:18:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

        This will be 13-5 most years.

        •  except Obama% need to be heavily qualified (4+ / 0-)

          depending on which area of the state you are talking about.  Obama+61% is what I would consider to be a safe number for a suburban Chicago seat, while Obama +56% is fine downstate.  This is because Kerry would have won both four years earlier; the Chicago metro area swung an average of 10-12 points toward Obama in 2008 while the rest of the state swung much less so.  I think some of that 10-12 point shift was a personal affection for just Obama, not any other Democrat and/or a personal aversion for voting for a ticket containing Sarah Palin.

          •  I don't disagree (0+ / 0-)

            But the problem is that it's getting to be a while since Bush/Kerry...7 or 8 I don't know if old results are that much more reliable than homestate results.  Here's a question: What were the Pat Quinn percentages?

            25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:32:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Quinn (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sulthernao, davybaby

              probably tied won barely in the new 10th, tied in the 11th, and lost by a tiny bit in the 8th.  He then tanked in the 6th and the 14th.  Hence why neither of these districts are really winnable for Democrats, regardless of what Obama's number was there in 2008.  

              I agree with you that Kerry is a bit outdated, but there is no other metric that comes closer to approximating what a neutral "natural" Democratic performance in Illinois is (about 55% statewide with a slight GOP lean in the suburbs and a Democrat winning largely entirely because of Chicago).  Quinn at 50% is too pessimistic and Obama at 61% is too optimistic.

        •  A lot of people think (0+ / 0-)

          Obama's numbers aren't a reliable guide to partisan lean thanks to the home state effect.  12 and 13--the Champaign/Springfield "downstate cities" district and the St. Louis/Mississippi district are the ones where this question matters most, I suppose.  One of them already has a Dem rep--I don't know how much it was weakened, this discussion is a lot to go through--so I would say 12-6 is probably the most conservative safe bet?

          25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:27:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It was only slightly weakened... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, JonathanMN, davybaby

            Costello's current 12th contains all the counties in the district except one.  They just added Jefferson County (which voted for McCain by about 54% I believe) to the district to gain the requisite population.  Otherwise it is exactly the same.  This is my local district, and Costello's pretty well entrenched.  Nothing to worry about so long as he runs; the worries begin in 5-10 years from now if he retires whether the gradual erosion of Democratic strength in southern Illinois has manifested itself to the point where this seat flips to a Republican.  But we're not there yet.

    •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, JonathanMN

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:24:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  14 looks a lot better than I expected (0+ / 0-)

      certainly winnable with Obama at the top of the ticket

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:26:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not really... (0+ / 0-)

        Given that all the Democratic strongholds have been cut out to help form either the new IL-8 or IL-11.  Now, if they included Dekalb in here, it might be a different matter, but this district is comprised of pure GOP-leaning exurban territory.

      •  It might be possible with Obama (0+ / 0-)

        at the top of the ticket and a really good Dem candidate and/or a poor Republican one but it would be the first one to fall in a year half as bad as 2010.

        21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

        by JonathanMN on Fri May 27, 2011 at 03:08:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  13-2-3 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Very, very nice.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 27, 2011 at 05:44:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  where do you see swing seats? (0+ / 0-)

        I see 4-5 solid GOP seats as vote sinks (Roskam's 6th, the 14th designed for whoever wins the primary Walsh or Hultgren, Manzullo in the 16th vs. probably Kinzinger, Schock in the 18th, and Johnson/Shimkus in the 15th).  Perhaps if Manzullo/Kinzinger gets bloody enough, Lasalle and Dekalb in that district could help out a Democrat to carry it, but the district also has much of Ford and Iroquois and those counties are red, really scary red, like not even voting for Obama when he won 70% in the US Senate race statewide back in 2004.

        •  Conservadems could compete in... (0+ / 0-)

          IL-06, IL-14, and IL-16. Those are all Bush/Obama districts. It would be interesting to see the gubernatorial numbers from last year.

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri May 27, 2011 at 07:44:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Having worked with Quinn numbers for a while (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            in Dupage and Kane before realizing that they weren't good for any metric that I wanted to use in drawing my own map, I can tell you taht Quinn tanked both seats.  I know for a fact that in the current IL-14 that Foster won back in 2008 and then lost last year: Bush won by 55%, then Obama by 54%, but Quinn only got 42%.  The suburbs, the further out you go, or the precincts where Obama only got a tepid 50-55% versus a more robust 60%-65%, those precincts reverted to form and voted heavily GOP last fall.

            The reason why Quinn is still my governor and why Kirk is unfortunately my Senator is to be explained, as the Tribune wrote up last winter, in the closer-in suburbs where you start to see some  Quinn/Kirk split-ticketers.   The Tribune speculates, probably correctly, that these were suburban pro-choice GOP moderate women repulsed by Bill Brady.

  •  Racial Stats (6+ / 0-)


    1 - 35.4/52.6/8.8/1.8/0.1/1.3
    2 - 29.6/55.2/12.8/0.7/0.2/1.5
    3 - 62.1/4.8/28.3/3.6/0.1/1.1

    4 - 21.0/4.0/71.3/2.7/0.1/0.9
    5 - 70.2/2.6/18.8/6.5/0.1/1.8
    6 - 79.5/2.4/8.7/7.7/0.1/1.5

    7 - 26.6/52.7/13.2/5.8/0.1/1.5
    8 - 55.5/4.6/26.3/11.9/0.1/1.7
    9 - 65.9/8.7/11.0/12.0/0.1/2.3

    10 - 60.9/6.6/21.4/9.1/0.1/1.8
    11 - 54.8/10.9/25.6/6.8/0.1/1.7
    12 - 77.2/16.9/2.9/1.0/0.2/1.8

    13 - 81.7/10.1/2.8/3.2/0.2/2.0
    14 - 80.7/2.6/11.2/4.0/0.1/1.4
    15 - 91.7/4.0/2.3/0.6/0.2/1.2

    16 - 85.6/3.3/8.4/1.4/0.2/1.3
    17 - 77.8/10.9/8.1/1.0/0.2/2.0
    18 - 89.9/3.8/2.4/2.2/0.2/1.4

    21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:22:47 PM PDT

  •  The best part about this (7+ / 0-)

    We'll now have A LOT of hot prospects to look at to think about challenging Kirk in 2016

    "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

    by xcave on Fri May 27, 2011 at 02:29:26 PM PDT

  •  Something to keep in mind re: IL (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ltsply2, Marcus Graly

    Illinois doesn't have the same backlash toward the GOP because they have no power here but some folks are pissed at Quinn right now over the income tax increase and downstate Dems have been getting more and more Republican over the last decade in opposition to Chicago Dems running the state so much.

    So keep that in mind to not get to crazy expecting IL-13 to happen automatically. It will take a great candidate to make that district a Dem one and to keep it.

  •  I wonder what district (0+ / 0-)

    Daniel Biss lives in?  He's one of a very few Democrats to flip state legislative seats in 2010.  Downside: He would keep making me feel like an utter failure in two of my biggest interests.  (He's a mathematician, and judging by his publication record, a pretty fabulous one.)

    25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Fri May 27, 2011 at 03:23:30 PM PDT

  •  I feel a great disturbance in The Force (0+ / 0-)

    It's as though a million (6) voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced (in Jan 2013). I fear something terrible (or great!) has happened.

    I am eagerly looking forward to seeing the comments once this diary hits the front page . . .

    SSP alumni, 26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    by trowaman on Fri May 27, 2011 at 03:29:53 PM PDT

  •  Someone posted the possible CA maps (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In another diary today.  The California state assembly and state senate maps look great for Dems, but the Congressional map doesn't look as good as I'd hoped.

    Basically they break it down like this:
    34 Dem Leaning Seats
    16 Rep Leaning Seats
    3 Seats listed as Swing Seats

    Right now the delegation is 34D/19R.  Though I didn't get too much into the details yet.  Maybe it's more promising than first glance.

  •  State Senate and House plans were approved (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden, jj32, itskevin, askew, James Allen

    Party line vote:

    Senate Democrats rolled over Republican opposition on a 35-22 vote only hours after House Democrats approved the new map of 118 House districts and 59 Senate districts on a 64-52 partisan vote. The action sends the measure to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn.

    The Democratic plan a week ago dedicated 11 House districts to Latinos, whose population grew in Chicago and suburban areas, with boundaries that had a voting-age population of at least 50 percent. The new map dedicates 10 districts to Latinos, but has five districts with a voting age population of at least 60 percent compared to four under the previous map.

    Latino rights groups have said districts with 60 percent to 65 percent voting-age populations are necessary to meet federal prohibitions against diluting the Hispanic vote. There was no immediate comment on how they viewed the current proposal.

    “I can’t speak specifically to those organizations, but I do know many of the issues raised by those groups were addressed,” Currie said. She called the map “fair” and “competitive” and said it would meet federal and state voting rights requirements.

    Despite a population loss of 200,000 in Chicago, primarily African Americans, the new map would maintain 16 House districts with a majority of voting-age blacks. As for the Senate, it creates eight Senate districts with a majority of voting-age blacks, up by one from its previous map.

    I don't think the Congressional maps were passed. I believe they will be voting for them on Sunday.

  •  I like that Tammy Duckworth (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is being mentioned by the Tribune as "interested" in running for the new 8th.  I know there are some who don't like her, but I have always admired her and her story, and I think she would make a brilliant congresswoman. I also like that the only two names who are mentioned for that seat are Asian-Americans (Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is Indian-American). Granted, I'm sure that there are plenty of State Legislatures in the area who'd like to take a crack at it, but Duckworth and Krishnamoorthi would both be top tier recruits.

    •  About Krishnamoorthi (0+ / 0-)

      I honestly don't know much about him but would he be a solid general election candidate for the new IL-08?  His resume looks terrific, my main concern has more to do with voter prejudice due to his Indian name/background.  Maybe religion too if he's Hindu.

    •  Yes I never understood the hostility to (3+ / 0-)

      Dukworth. The reason they hated her was because Rahm Emmanuel suggest she run in IL-6 in 2006. She beat their favorite Christine Cegelis. Even though Celegis had run for the district in 2004, she lost the primary to Dukworth.  Cegelis's supporters felt betrayed.

      But honestly, if Cegelis were that popular, she would have beaten Duckworth in the primary. And given that Cegelis had run two years before, and had higher name recognition, that she couldn't win the primary says she probably would have been a poor general election candidate.

  •  Good candidates for IL-17 (0+ / 0-)

    Phil Hare has stated he wants to run again, but I'm not sure that he wouldn't stumble even in a stronger district. There are more than a few Democratic legislators within the boundaries, but I wanted to know who would really stand out as a good candidate.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri May 27, 2011 at 07:27:55 PM PDT

  •  . (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, itskevin

    Summary of comments (?):

    5 Democrats have seats which are safe for them without a Republican incumbent challenger:

    1 - Rush.
    3 - Lipinski.
    4 - Gutierrez.
    7 - Davis.
    12 - Costello.

    3 Democrats have seats which are safe for them with a Republican incumbent challenger:

    2 - Jackson v. Kinzinger.
    5 - Quigley v. Biggert.
    9 - Schakowsky v. Dold.

    3 seats have no incumbent and are likely or safe Democrat:

    8, 10, 11.

    5 seats are safely Republican vote sinks (though some have stated that a conservative Democrat could win in districts with a ):

    6 - Roskam.
    14* - Hultgren v. Walsh.
    15 - Johnson.
    16* - Manzullo.
    18 - Schock.

    2 Republicans have been thrown in a seat which they probably can't win:

    13 - Shimkus.
    17 - Schilling.

    Total: 13-5.

    21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Sat May 28, 2011 at 03:43:13 AM PDT

  •  Bill Foster announced today for the new 11th Dist. (0+ / 0-)

    Good news!

  •  Wi : now official 3 more GOP recalls ordered (0+ / 0-)

    The GAB has approved a July 12 recall election for Sen. Alberta Darling, certifying 22,243 valid recall signatures this morning.

    Eric McLeod, attorney for the GOP senators, argued the board should throw out the signatures from petitioners who gathered support from outside Darling's district.

    But GAB attorneys said they found no evidence of fraud, and that the remedy should be simply to strike those signatures found to be outside the 8th SD.

    The GAB voted to accept challenges to 2,813 signatures, leaving organizers well ahead of the 20,343 needed to trigger a recall.

    An hour prior the elections board also affirmed the recall of Republicans Robert Cowles and Shelia Harsdorf, but the announcement did not include signature totals for either Senator.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Tue May 31, 2011 at 09:31:51 AM PDT

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