While I was creating my Texas map, I figured that a return to the old, pre-DeLaymander districts would be a huge benefit for us. I was absolutely wrong. I re-created the 5 rural districts we held that were targeted and altered by the GOP. It turns out that most of them ended up being just as red as they are now because of rural Texas's rapid shift to the Republicans. What the Republicans did to knock out Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Charlie Stenholm, and Chet Edwards, and cause Ralph Hall to switch parties was to change their territory, so that they had tons of new constituents, even though the partisanship of the districts was roughly equivalent to the old ones. After re-creating them and seeing the numbers, it is clear we would have lost them anyway within a few cycles even if the Republicans didn't do their mid-decade gerrymander. Details of the individual districts after the jump.
TX-1: Max Sandlin
Before:
After:
This district shifts a bit south, and is pretty much equal in partisanship, but Max Sandlin still lost to Louie Gohmert 62-38 in 2004, despite winning 56-44 in 2002. This was clearly a case of constituent turnover that cost him the seat, considering the new one is actually .5% more Democratic.
Old District: McCain: 69.8%, Obama: 30.2%
New District: McCain: 69.3%, Obama: 30.7%
TX-2: Jim Turner
Before:
After:
Turner was re-elected 61-38 in 2002, but his district was split 3 ways. Most of the territory went to Republican Kevin Brady's suburban Houston-based 8th district, Turner's home went to Republican Joe Barton's Fort Worth-based 6th district, a few counties on the northern end shifted to the new 1st, and Cherokee County shifted to Jeb Henserling's suburban Dallas-based 5th. Turner determined he had no shot at re-election and decided to retire. Democrat Nick Lampson, who's suburban Houston district was dismantled decided to run in the new 2nd, but he lost 56-43 to Republican Ted Poe.
Old District: McCain: 71.5%, Obama: 28.5%
New 2nd District: McCain: 60%, Obama: 40%
New 6th District: McCain: 60.2%, Obama: 39.8%
New 8th District: McCain: 74.5, Obama: 25.5%
TX-4: Ralph Hall
Before:
After:
The district loses its southern portion and picks up a bunch of counties from the northern end of the old 1st. In January 2004, Hall, who at the time was one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress, jumped ship and became a Republican in order to be re-elected. He won 68-30, after winning 58-40 in 2002, and is currently still in Congress.
Old District: McCain: 71.1%, Obama: 28.9%
New District: McCain: 69.7%, Obama: 30.3%
TX-11: Chet Edwards
Before:
After:
The district shifted shifted south to add College Station, where Texas A&M is located. As it already had Waco, where Baylor is located, it contained two of the most conservative universities in the country. The addition of Hood and Johnson Counties helped swing the district 6.5% more Republican. The district was re-numbered as the 17th. Edwards impressively managed to hang on until 2010 in the R+20 district, winning 51-47 in 2004, 58-40 in 2006, and 53-46 in 2008, before falling 62-37 to Bill Flores in 2010. The best part was that he was President Bush's congressman that entire time. Considering Edwards' similar 52-47 win in 2002, this seems like the norm for how the other incumbents would have fared without the mid-decade redistricting. (narrowly squeaking by until a 2010 loss)
Old 11th District: McCain: 61.2%, Obama: 38.8%
New 17th District: McCain: 67.7%, Obama: 32.3%
TX-17: Charlie Stenholm
Before:
After:
Part of the district shifted south and was renumbered as the 11th, while Stenholm's house was drawn into Republican Randy Neugebauer's 19th district. A few other counties went into Republican Mac Thornberry's 13th district. Stenholm ran against Neugebauer, losing 58-40, following a 51-47 win in 2002. The new 11th was won 77-22 by Republican Mike Conaway.
Old 17th District: McCain: 75.8%, Obama: 24.2%
New 11th District: McCain: 76.1%, Obama: 23.9%
New 19th District: McCain: 72.5%, Obama: 27.5%
In conclusion, it turns out that these 5 seats would have gone red anyway, even if it took several more cycles. The only seats where the partisan composition actually changed dramatically was Nick Lampson's suburban Houston-based 9th district, and Martin Frost's Dallas-area 24th district. Lampson's district was torn up into Ron Paul's 14th, Tom DeLay's 22nd, and the new 2nd. In 2004, he ran in the new 2nd, losing 56-43 to Ted Poe, as mentioned earlier. In 2006, he ran in the 22nd and won with 52%, due to his opponent having to run a write-in campaign. However, he lost his seat 52-45 to Pete Olson in 2008 after not getting so lucky a second time. Frost moved and ran in Pete Session's 32nd district, but lost 54-44, while the now-Republican 24th district went to Kenny Marchant 64-34, a dramatic change from Frost's 65-34 victory in 2002.
Interestingly, what some people may not notice is that the redistricting probably cost Solomon Ortiz his seat in 2010, as he lost by slightly under 800 votes. During the redistricting, his district swapped several areas of deep-blue Cameron County for several conservative areas of San Patricio County. This results in about a 2-3 percent swing, well more than his loss margin.