Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/28-5/1, Missouri Republican primary voters, 3/6-9 in parens):
Todd Akin (R): 29 (24)
Sarah Steelman (R): 28 (31)
Ed Martin (R): 9 (9)
John Brunner (R): 6 (n/a)
Undecided/other: 28 (34)
Sarah Steelman (R): 27
Todd Akin (R): 23
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 18
Ed Martin (R): 6
John Brunner (R): 4
Undecided/other: 23
(MoE: ±4.9%)
A brief note on that first set of matchups: In March, PPP tested Ann Wagner, who has since said she plans to run for MO-02, Todd Akin's would-be open seat. This time, they swapped in businessman John Brunner. I think it's reasonable to pull a trendline from this, though, because Wagner got just 2% last time and Brunner is polling negligbly as well. So these numbers would appear to be nominally good news for Akin—assuming he gets in.
However, since this poll came out, Ed Martin said he'd follow Wagner into the House race, so his support has to go somewhere. The CW might say Sarah Steelman would absorb Martin's brigade of teabaggers, but I'm not so certain. From the right angle, Steelman might look like a teabagger queen, but she's earned the mistrust of conservatives for a number of reasons over the years, largely because of her once-close ties to certain unions, as well as a vote against tort reform. So I don't know that she's the clear beneficiary of Martin quitting the race.
Personally, I think February may have been the high-water mark for Steelman. Akin is extremely conservative and, so far, seems to be one of those establishment pols who nonetheless is pretty acceptable to movement conservatives. Steelman doesn't seem to have a lot of friends and she's raised weakly to date, so unless a third-party group decides to back her, I think Akin will have a big resource edge. This isn't good news for Claire McCaskill, since he's definitely an upgrade over the rest of the field. The only silver lining is that hopefully Akin's past record (his district is much redder than the state as a whole) can be successfully used against him in the general.
P.S. The second matchup in the blockquote above includes the extremely unlikely scenario where both Akin and fellow Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (who briefly signalled an interest) run in the primary. There's almost no way that will happen.
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