Like most, I will not say that I was not disappointed by the events of last night. That said, I am ready for the fight that will ensue and I strongly believe that the Obama campaign is as well. The race is not a coronation. It never should have been characterized as such and I hope that the punditry will not return to this false hypothesis. Like most here, I am going to be involved in this campaign until the nomination speech and as I still strongly believe, his acceptance speech.
The more important questions now are about what happens next. To this end I am very encouraged by some of the information I have come across
while perusing the political blogs this morning. I think there has been a general belief that Edwards and Obama cancel each other out and therefore split an anti-Clinton vote. It appears this is not supported by the evidence. Thus I hope we can put an end to some of the sniping about who should exit the race.
From where I stand, I suspect this will be tough fight for whomever the nominee is until Feb 5th, by which time at least, a significant portion of the country will have had their say and will have at the least, offered some clarity.
As I noted above. I think many, myself included, have assumed that Barack Obama and John Edwards have been splitting an anti-Clinton vote and therefore have made it difficult for either to outright win the nomination. Amy Walters at The Hotline offers a different perspective based on the exit polling data. In general, I respect her opinion as she presents it devoid of spin for any particular candidate. Note that the vote split actually occurs between Edwards and Clinton. Barack Obama does well among demographic groups that do not overlap with Edwards.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.c...
--While most are pointing to the Portsmouth "tear-up" as the cause for her success, it’s also noticeable that her success seems to have come at the expense of John Edwards. In Iowa, Edwards competed strongly with HRC for the traditional blue-collar, core Democratic voter. In New Hampshire, those voters broke decidedly for her.
--In IA, for example, among voters who said that the economy was their number one issue, Edwards and HRC were tied with 26% each. Barack Obama won these voters with 36%. In New Hampshire, however, HRC carried those voters with 43%, Obama stayed at the same place at 37%, while Edwards dropped to 16%.
--It also seems that Edwards’ populist message had little resonance in the Granite State. Clinton took 41% among the large group of voters who said they were very worried about the economy, Obama came in 5-points behind at 36%. Edwards, meanwhile, took just 17%.
This appears contrary to what has been put forth as the argument for Edwards dropping out of the race. As an Obama supporter. I have no problem with his staying in the race in part because I oppose asking anyone to drop out on general principle [and I hope no one ever suggests that Barack Obama drop out] but also because in the end it appears Obama is the primary beneficiary of his continued presence. For a more detailed analysis see below from Paul Rosenberg at Open Left.
http://openleft.com/...
Vote By Income
Family income: % Total Clinton Edwards Obama
$15-30,000 9 51 14 30
$30-50,000 18 44 16 32
$50-75,000 23 33 19 40
$75-100,000 16 36 18 42
$100-150,000 17 33 17 44
$150-200,000 6 46 15 34
$200,000 or More 6 37 12 43
Vote By Income
Family income: % Total Clinton Edwards Obama
Less than $50,000 33 47 15 32
$50,000 or more 67 35 17 41
Vote By Education
Last grade of school completed % Total Clinton Edwards Obama
No High School 3 61 9 28
High school graduate 17 46 17 31
Some college / associate degree 27 40 16 40
College graduate 29 38 18 37
Postgraduate study 24 31 16 43
Vote By Education
Last grade of school completed % Total Clinton Edwards Obama
High school graduate or less 19 49 16 30
More than high school grad 81 37 17 40
On a separate note, I was also very pleased to see the NV SEIU has moved forward with their endorsement of Obama last night. I think at this point it will be important to see who stays with him and who does not. As of this writing the Culinary Workers endorsement is a possibility but not a given.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/...
LAS VEGAS (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has won the endorsement of the Nevada chapter of the Service Employees International Union, union officials said.
The influential union claims to represent 17,500 health care and county workers in Nevada. Its executive board approved the decision in a conference call Tuesday night, shortly after the Illinois senator finished a close second behind Hillary Rodham Clinton in the New Hampshire primary.
SEIU President Vicky Hedderman said she believes Obama is a candidate "who could take the campaign all the way through November."
Nevada's Jan. 19 caucus is the next major Democratic nomination contest. Under union rules, the endorsement allows SEIU locals in other states to lend resources and volunteers to its Nevada counterpart on behalf Obama.
Obama has won the support of SEIU locals and state councils in five states, including his home state.
I think most of us who have volunteered for campaigns in the past know that there will be peaks and valleys and that you have to expect to fight it out over the long term. I am pleased that Obama is still in the lead among delegates [not including the superdelegates]. I am looking forward to the marathon because in the end I know that Barack Obama is still the candidate that I consider best for the job of leader of the free world.
He has demonstrated the character and judgment, as well as legislative history to do so. I will not list his legislation here again because others have done so previously and quite eloquently in previous diaries and I thank them.
Also in a time in which it is easy to be cynical about politics and government in general, his ability to inspire a new generation of democratic voters and turn older, more cynical voters into believers again is worth any price. I thank him advance for his service to the country.
p.s. My apologies in advance, I am not attempting to snub anyone but I have no ability to rate comments.
UPDATE: The Culinary Workers Union Has Endorsed Barack
Hope this puts and end to the notion that unions won't endorse him.
Despite losing Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, Sen. Barack Obama secured the endorsement of the Culinary Workers union.
The endorsement of the 60,000-member Culinary Workers union is seen as the biggest get in Nevada, a state which votes Jan. 19.
At 11 p.m. E.T. on Tuesday, a 12-member panel which controls the 60,000-member Culinary Workers union held a conference call to decide which '08 candidate to endorse.
The panel making the decision is the executive committee of UNITE-HERE, Culinary's parent union.
"We believe that Obama is the candidate who can bring the country together and we are proud to support his candidacy," Shauna Hamel, Executive Vice President of the union says.
The backing of the 60,000-member union is seen as important because the state's Democratic Party is only expecting 40,000 Democrats to participate in the cauc