Even though New York Democrats do not have the trifecta, they are bargaining from a position of substantial strength and should be able to obtain a favorable map if they choose to angle for it. Republicans are currently clinging to a one seat majority in the Senate that cannot be sustained unless Governor Cuomo and the Assembly Democrats allow the Senate Republicans to concoct another extreme gerrymander to shore up their numbers. If Republicans don’t play ball, Democrats can settle for a court drawn map for one cycle before obtaining the Senate majority and creating their own gerrymander after the 2012 election. If this were to happen Democrats could easily create a 24-3 (or perhaps even better gerrymander).
see http://www.swingstateproject.com/... and http://www.swingstateproject.com/... for examples of very effective Democratic Gerrymanders, admittedly with a 28 seat map.
As such, Democrats have all the leverage in this process and should use it to their maximal advantage by demanding that both eliminated districts come from Republican incumbents and by generally seeking to move the needle towards the Dem direction elsewhere when possible. Although I don’t know whether NY Dems ultimately will angle for such changes, I have no doubt that they should.
Below is a general overview of what such a map would look like. Its partisan leans along the lines of a 19-2-6 and all Republican incumbents other than Turner and Hanna – whose districts are eliminated – retain enough of their current constituents that they should be able to retain their districts in the short term, likely yielding at 21-6 delegation as opposed to a 21-8 as it currently stands.
LONG ISLAND
1ST (Tim Bishop)
Old: 51-48
New: 52-47
Demographics: (hereafter reported as only if potentially relevant to VRA)
Comments: Rep. Bishops district really can’t be changed too much since he’s stuck at the tip of Suffolk County. There are some improvements as very conservative Smithtown is removed and replaced with slightly less Republican areas along the South Shore.
2nd (Steve Israel)
Old: 56-43
New: 57-42
Demographics:
Comments: Not hugely changed but moves a smidge to the left as it exchanges some areas on the North Shore for Republican bits of Suffolk county.
3rd (Peter King, Bob Turner)
Old: 47-52
New: 44-55
Demographics:
Comments: There’s really no way to target King without an extreme gerrymander so he gets a Republican vote sink instead. Although Bob Turner lives in this district he’d have no chance of winning a primary against King as it’s mostly King’s old district.
4th (Carolyn McCarthy)
Old: 58-41
New: 59-41
Demographics: There’s a lot of contorting around an arm that moves in from NY-6 to pick up black voters in Nassau county to keep that district majority black. I don’t know whether this would be required by the VRA but either way it doesn’t effect that partisanship of the 4th very much as it exchanges overwhelmingly Democratic African-American areas of Nassau County for overwhelmingly Democratic Hispanic and Asian areas of Queens to make up the difference.
5th (Gary Ackerman)
Old: 63-36
New: 68-30
Demographics: (W: 34, B: 10, H: 25, A: 28) - (this and all hereafter reported as voting-age population)
Comments: Rep. Ackerman probably won’t like this as he now represents a very different district (although his home remains here). Unfortunately with the changes I’ve made elsewhere in the map this is really the only place to do the Queens-Bronx crossover without drawing some really hideous lines. Either way this district remains solidly Democratic.
THE CITY
6th (Gregory Meeks)
Old: 89-11
New: 88-11
Demographics: (W: 12 B: 51 H: 18 A: 11)
Comments: As previously mentioned this district requires a Nassau swirl to establish a majority black voting age population. Without this swirl it’d be about 48% black. Either way, the swirl does not have a significant impact on the partisan leanings of either this district or the 4th.
8th (Jerrold Nadler)
Old: 74-25
New: 78-21
Demographics:
Comments: Makes some pretty significant changes, dropping areas of Manhattan in exchange for areas of the white very liberal brownstone belt in Brooklyn. Although this move the district to the left it ultimately allows the two Brooklyn black VRA districts to collectively obliterate the Turner’s current 9th by exchanging liberal white yuppie neighborhoods in the brownstone belt for conservative Orthodox neighborhoods in the Southern portions of the borrow.
9th (Joseph Crowley)
Old: 79-20
New: 71-29
Demographics:
Comments: Although this is numbered as the 9th it’s really a successor to Crowley’s 7th. Although Crowley might not like dropping large portions of his existing district he’ll probably gladly take this exchange in order to have a district that is entirely concentrated in Queens. Note that the need to cede hispanic areas to the 12th ultimately makes less ugly for this district to stay entirely in Queens while sending the 5th to make the Queens Bronx jump.
10th (Ed Towns)
Old: 91-9
New: 83-17
Demographics: (W: 27 B: 50.4 H: 16 A: 5)
Comments: Keeps almost all the same African-American neighborhoods in Brooklyn but moves south to be one of the two districts instrumental to dismantling the 9th. Note also that it would be difficult to substantially increase the African-American percentage in either of the two Brooklyn VRA districts due to demographic changes in the area, so retrogression concerns shouldn’t be overly worrisome.
11th (Yvette Clarke)
Old: 90-9
New: 82-18
Demographics: (W: 30 B: 50.5 H: 11 A: 6)
Comments: Basically the same story as with the 10th.
12th (Nydia Velazquez)
Old: 86-13
New: 85-14
Demographics: (W: 28 B: 8 H: 50.6 A: 13)
Comments: This district becomes majority hispanic by picking ups some areas that were previously in the 9th. Otherwise it is little-changed, keeping areas of Red Hook, the Lower-East Side, and Alphabet City.
13th (Michael Grimm)
Old: 49-51
New: 51-48
Demographics:
Comments: Doesn’t change a whole lot but moves a bit to the left as it trades some conservative Italian areas for more Dem-friendly predominantly Asian neighborhoods. Note that this district could be made safely Democratic without splitting up Staten Island or interfering with the VRA districts under a Democratic gerrymander by taking in 90-10 white liberal sections of the brownstone belt as opposed to 50-50 areas of Bensonhurst.
14th (Carolyn Maloney)
Old: 78-21
New: 80-19
Demographics:
Comments: Drops parts of Queens and picks up areas of Manhattan currently in the 8th.
15th (Charlie Rangel)
Old: 93-6
New: 94-5
Demographics: (W: 17 B: 33 H: 44 A: 4)
Comments: This district will likely lead to a big fight in the legislature no matter what sort of map the legislature seeks to draw. This map shows the option whereby the district remains winnable for a black politician after Rangel leaves. Other diaries have outlined the opposite where the districts hispanic majority is increased. I really don’t know what will happen but it matters little to the partisan leanings of the map as a whole.
16th (Jose Serrano)
Old: 95-5
New: 95-5
Demographics: (W: 3 B: 29 H: 65 A: 2)
Comments: A very clean South Bronx based district.
17th (Eliot Engel)
Old: 72-28
New: 66-33
Demographics: (W: 47 B: 25 H: 22 A: 5)
Comments: Exchanges some precincts in the Bronx and soaks up Republican precincts in Rockland and Orange county to nudge the 19th to the left.
WESTCHESTER AND LOWER HUDSON
18th (Nita Lowey)
Old: 62-38
New: 60-39
Demographics:
Comments: Mostly the same but some changes occur to nudge the 19th to the left.
19th (Nan Hayworth)
Old: 51-48
New: 53-46
Demographics:
Comments: Not radically changed but nudged in a slightly more favorable Democratic direction. This is another district that could easily be obliterated in a Democratic gerrymander but is preserved (though made more slightly more Dem-friendly) in recognition of Republican control of the Senate.
UPSTATE
20th (Chris Gibson)
Old: 51-48
New: 52-47
Demographics:
Comments: This is another district which could be made safely Dem under an aggressive gerrymander but is mostly preserved (though again nudged to the left) in recognition of the Republican position in the Senate.
22nd (Maurice hinchey)
Old: 59-39
New: 58-40
Demographics:
Comments: This district is made marginally more Republican in order to improve the 20th and the 19th but retains its base in Ithaca and Binghamton. Despite Hinchey’s close-ish scare in 2010 this district should be safe enough in all but the most lopsidedly Republican years or with all but the least compelling Democratic candidates.
7th (Paul Tonko)
Old: 58-40
New: 56-42
Demographics:
Comments: Same story as with the 22nd as this soaks up some rural Republican turf to shore up surrounding districts but should still be safe. Note that this is renumbered but is still the successor for the 21st.
23rd (Bill Owens)
Old: 52-47
New: 53-46
Demographics:
Comments: There’s only so much you can do to shore up this district without an extreme gerrymander or sacrificing the 25th. However, it does pick up a lot of the most Dem-friendly bits of the old 24th in Utica and Rome in order to move this district a bit to the left and help dismantle the old 24th.
25th (Ann Buerkle)
Old: 56-43
New: 55-43
Demographics:
Comments: This district isn’t really changed that much but it’s designed under the (IMHO correct) assumption that Rep. Buerkle’s election was a fluke and that moving her district substantially to the left need not be a priority for NY Dems.
WESTERN NEW YORK
21st (Tom Reed, Richard Hanna)
Old: 48-50
New: 44-54
Demographics:
Comments: This is mostly built from Rep. Reed’s old district but takes in portions of Rep. Hanna’s as well. Although Hanna might choose to run here Reed would seem to have the upper hand as it’s primarily a Southern Tier based district.
24th (Louise Slaughter)
Old: 68-30
New: 59-39
Demographics:
Comments: This Rochester-based district is meant to be a successor to Rep. Slaughter’s old 29th. Although the earmuffs are gone and the district moves to the right it should still be plenty safe.
26th (Kathy Hochul)
Old: 46-52
New: 50-49
Demographics:
Comments: This district becomes a compact Niagra county based district that should lean Republican in neutral years but that gives Rep. Hochul a much better chance to survive in the upcoming elections. This district could be made quite safe under a Democratic gerrymander by picking up more Democratic bits of Buffalo but is kept Republican-leaning in acknowledgment of the Republicans majority in the Senate.
27th (Brian Higgins)
Old: 54-44
New: 59-39
Demographics:
Comments: Losing the earmuffs allows Rep. Higgins to pick up all the most Democratic bits of Buffalo. Since Rep. Higgins has a good deal of crossover appeal these areas could have been used to make Hochul’s district safer but are instead used to shore up Higgins in recognition of the Republican Senate majority.