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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  Quote "I think /part/ of Chandler's defeat" (0+ / 0-)

    and "got the margins he needed... for the most part.  The deciding factor is that he ran a crappy campaign, but if you look at A) his past performances, B) how Conway and Lunsford performed, and C) how our statewide executive candidates performed, the hypothesis that is best supported is that Chandler underperformed significantly in the more coal heavy counties and his support of Cap and Trade cost him dearly.

    Again, I haven't had the time to dig as deeply into the data as I'd like, especially at the precinct level, but I think that, all else equal, had he voted against Cap and Trade, or had he run a better campaign he'd be in the house.  To reiterate, that's my hypothesis. I'm not trying to be condescending, just more clear.  I think there's a good case to be made that either of those same two factors were deciding ones by themselves in Rick Boucher's 2010 defeat.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:46:52 PM PST

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    •  But... (1+ / 0-)
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      He didn't get the margins he needed. He lost the retained parts of the district, from what I understand (I'm too lazy to go check this for myself). That's by definition him not getting the "margins he needed".

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 12:12:14 AM PST

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