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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  Oregon state senate, 2014 (3+ / 0-)

    Dems currently have a 1 seat majority.  2012 was not a big year because only 2 seats that were up were in between D+5 and R+5, and all of the D+ seats up were Dem held, all the R+ seats were Republican-held.  No seats changed hands.  2014 will be different.  Most of the swing districts are up in midterms.

    Republican-held districts:
    SD8- Located in Corvallis and Albany, this district seems to be still trending Democratic.  2012 only numbers give us D+7.3.  Improving our odds, the moderate Republican who had held onto the district in a local version of LaTourette resigned last fall and so the Republican incumbent is an appointee, a former state rep who is much more conservative than him.  Corvallis and Albany are similar in size, and each has a state house district of their own.  Albany's is about R+5 or R+6, and is represented by a Republican.  Corvallis' state house district is about D+19 or more, and is represented by a Democrat.

    SD15- Located in Hillsboro, Cornelius, and Forest Grove, this district also seems to be continuing to trend Democratic.  The incumbent, Bruce Starr, was last seen losing the Labor Commissioner race statewide in 2012.  The district's 2012 only numbers give us D+5.7.  Starr has lucked out in 2010.  His luck may have run out.  In 2010 both house districts within this senate district were picked up by Republicans, in 2012 both were picked up by Democrats, and not candidates with great profiles, either: a liberal, Hispanic college professor in one, and a Democratic political operative in the other.

    SD26*- Located in Hood River, northeastern Clackamas County, rural eastern Multnomah County, and some of outer Southeast Portland, this district is about D+1.5 in 2012 only numbers.  Represented by moderate Chuck Thomsen, this one may be hard to dislodge.  I honestly don't know who'd be a good candidate against him, perhaps a Hood River County Commissioner, but that's the body Chuck Thomsen recently left to take this seat from us in 2010.  Perhaps former state senator Rick Metsger misses his old seat?  He retired, though, he left voluntarily.  This one is more Democratic, and we just picked up the Portland area house district here, and only lost the Hood River-based on 52-48 with a candidate who raised little money.

    SD10- Located in South Salem, West Salem, some rural Marion County, and the small cities of Monmouth (a college town) and Independence, this district got more conservative in redistricting, having been one of the most closely divided in the state.  Now the 2012 only number is about R+2.8.  In 2006 we almost took it when the mayor of Monmouth ran as a Democrat, but incumbent (moderate) Republican Jackie Winters is immensely popular and held on.  She is supportive of state workers (hey, it's Salem) and so the unions generally support her.  The district is also ancestrally Republican, Republicans easily hold both house districts here, and it's wealthier and whiter than the rest of Salem.  All of this makes it look difficult.  However, Winters is old, one of the oldest senators right now.  An open seat is likely.

    SD20- Located in central Clackamas County, this district was made more Republican after Alan Olsen took it from Democrat Martha Schrader in 2010.  Previously slightly Dem-leaning, it is now slightly Republican leaning, and while Obama won it under these lines in 2010 (according to my estimates), he definitely lost it this year, leaving it at about R+3.1 in 2012 only numbers, but Democrats, including Obama, underperformed in Clackamas County this year.  It could mean that we'll have a harder time running here in 2014, or it could mean that a local Democrat, like say former Canby Mayor Melody Thompson or former Estacada Mayor Bob Austin, could have a good shot if 2012 was an anomaly.

    Dem-held districts:
    SD3- Located in Medford and Ashland in Southern Oregon, we've held this district with Democrat Alan Bates of Medford for many years.  He's a popular incumbent here who held on in 2010 by the skin of his teeth, a doctor, who beat a strong challenger who was a general.  However, he didn't take the campaign seriously, not understanding how strong the R wave was, and if he got a strong challenge again wouldn't likely take it for granted.  Ashland keeps this district slightly D-leaning, but only slightly, at about D+0.8 in 2012 numbers only.

    SD16- Located on the North Coast primarily, but also taking Columbia County, and a few precincts in Washington County (that are Republican) and a few in Multnomah County (that are Democratic), this district is much more ancestrally Democratic than it appears, and neither it nor the state house districts have seen a close race in years.  The 2012 numbers are about D+2.2, and I don't see incumbent Betsy Johnson having any problems.  The Republican base here is sparse.

    We have a good shot to expand the majority.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:22:26 PM PST

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