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  •  I'm still worried about (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, R30A

    Matheson (yes I know he's one hell of a campaigner) and McIntyre.

    I'm worried manly because what happened to Chandler. He had a close call in 2010 and most of us thought he'd be fine as he weathered out the worst storm. But he still had a R leaning district to defend this cycle and went down.

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:14:21 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  I think part of Chandler's defeat (4+ / 0-)

      was self-inflicted.  In redistricting they added some more coal heavy areas to the district of a guy who voted for cap and trade, that and he just ran a very lackluster campaign.  Chandler got the margins he needed in the coal-free parts of the district for the most part.  I'm eventually going to get around to taking a more in depth look at his campaign when I have the time, but that's my hypothesis so far.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:44:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This actually isn't the case (0+ / 0-)

        I believe that illinoyedr is going to be out with a diary shortly on this race showing that Chandler would have lost even without the new coal parts.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:21:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Quote "I think /part/ of Chandler's defeat" (0+ / 0-)

          and "got the margins he needed... for the most part.  The deciding factor is that he ran a crappy campaign, but if you look at A) his past performances, B) how Conway and Lunsford performed, and C) how our statewide executive candidates performed, the hypothesis that is best supported is that Chandler underperformed significantly in the more coal heavy counties and his support of Cap and Trade cost him dearly.

          Again, I haven't had the time to dig as deeply into the data as I'd like, especially at the precinct level, but I think that, all else equal, had he voted against Cap and Trade, or had he run a better campaign he'd be in the house.  To reiterate, that's my hypothesis. I'm not trying to be condescending, just more clear.  I think there's a good case to be made that either of those same two factors were deciding ones by themselves in Rick Boucher's 2010 defeat.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:46:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A

            He didn't get the margins he needed. He lost the retained parts of the district, from what I understand (I'm too lazy to go check this for myself). That's by definition him not getting the "margins he needed".

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 12:12:14 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

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