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  •  Safe for Gallego, I meant (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    He already has a regional advantage in the Big Bend, and when the legislature is forced to draw the more heavily Hispanic areas of San Antonio into the district, it will add to that strength.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:35:39 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      The district as it currently stands is very similar in nature to Collin Peterson's district in MN, but not as safe. You have a very strong incumbent (and long standing incumbent in a certain part of the district) that will be very hard to dislodge because of his very pointed ideological differences with the national party (gun control was mentioned above somewhere, energy is another, social policy yet still another, etc.).

      You've also got the key point by noting that when the district is redrawn it will have to be redrawn in Bexar County only, with some precinct swaps between himself, Castro, and Lamar Smith. Most likely more of the southside will be placed into the district, with the northern towns of Helotes and Shavano Park (as well as likely all of the rest of northern section inside Loop 1604) being excised to the 20th and 21st. There will likely have to be some adjustment between the 20th and 21st as well to even out the populations, most likely by giving the 20th some more of the Northeast, like it has historically had.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:41:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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