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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  There's already a Muskegon Seat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    it's fairly compact, just Muskegon, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties, and it should be one of Democrats' top targets in 2014. Additionally, "downtown" Grand Rapids is way to small for one Senate seat; as it stands, Grand Rapids is entirely contained within the 29th District. If the 29th were altered to include GR suburbs like Kentwood and Wyoming, Democrats would stand a better chance of picking it up, but it wouldn't be assured. Either way, the map you are describing is more of a Democratic gerrymander than a fair map.

    •  I did not include Newaygo County (0+ / 0-)

      and in its place added Lake, Mason and Mastinee Counties. Came out to 60/38 Obama, 50/50 in the 2010 numbers. My Grand Rapid area seat is 63/35 Obama and 51/49 GOP in the 2010 numbers. I would say my map is more of a Dem gerrymander hiding in the guise of a fair map. My Lansing area would not likely be in a commission map though.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:47:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You mind posting the map? (0+ / 0-)

        I'm curious.

        Also, DRA doesn't have 2010 numbers for Michigan. The Dem and Rep averages are an average of Gov, SoS, and AG for 2006, although it comes out to a 5 point Republican statewide win (which is a really pessimistic scenario) since Republicans won SoS and AG big.

        •  Sorry about that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          I meant to put 2006, but I had 2010 in my head. Here is SE Michigan. I probably violated sections of the Michigan Constitution, but here it is for SE Michigan:
          Photobucket

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:44:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  And a better Detroit Metro (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          Photobucket

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:47:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The map is good for a D gerrymander (0+ / 0-)

            But a commission wouldn't split Ann Arbor, nor Ingham County. Michigan legislative maps almost always follow county and municipality lines, and I think that there may be a statute preventing excessive county or city splits, which would make the South-East Michigan portion of your map pretty questionable. However, it is still possible to make a decent D-gerrymander without excessively splitting municipalities.

            •  The real area for gains under a commission (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MenhentheDem

              is in Oakland and Macomb Counties. A fair map could net us 3 seats.

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:38:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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