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  •  Is Pete Gallego (D-TX) in a Romney district? (0+ / 0-)

    I thought it was narrowly Obama.

    Anyway, Gallego has a unique strength in his district.  He lives in the big open space between El Paso and San Antonio, so he connects with rural voters on a regional basis and got a lot of support from Republicans who wouldn't otherwise vote for him.  In Jeff Davis County, for example, Romney won 60-37 but Gallego won 54-42.

    On the other hand, there aren't many people who live in that swath of land so it may not help him much.  And he's likely to be a "no" vote on gun control, too, being from West Texas, so that's a bit of a down side for us.

    •  Also, when the legislature has to redraw the map (0+ / 0-)

      for 2014, they will be forced to make the 23rd safely Democratic.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:26:41 PM PST

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      •  Probably not, but likely lean Democratic (0+ / 0-)

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:33:30 PM PST

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        •  Safe for Gallego, I meant (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          He already has a regional advantage in the Big Bend, and when the legislature is forced to draw the more heavily Hispanic areas of San Antonio into the district, it will add to that strength.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:35:39 PM PST

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          •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen

            The district as it currently stands is very similar in nature to Collin Peterson's district in MN, but not as safe. You have a very strong incumbent (and long standing incumbent in a certain part of the district) that will be very hard to dislodge because of his very pointed ideological differences with the national party (gun control was mentioned above somewhere, energy is another, social policy yet still another, etc.).

            You've also got the key point by noting that when the district is redrawn it will have to be redrawn in Bexar County only, with some precinct swaps between himself, Castro, and Lamar Smith. Most likely more of the southside will be placed into the district, with the northern towns of Helotes and Shavano Park (as well as likely all of the rest of northern section inside Loop 1604) being excised to the 20th and 21st. There will likely have to be some adjustment between the 20th and 21st as well to even out the populations, most likely by giving the 20th some more of the Northeast, like it has historically had.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:41:40 PM PST

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    •  It voted narrowly for Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, MichaelNY

      because it was made a point less Dem in the interim maps as opposed to the post-LULAC v. Perry maps.   wwmiv agreed on that point that Gallego has a unique advantage due to his rural base (also, his rural State Rep. seat stayed blue this year).  In comparison, Canseco, Ciro Rodriguez, Bonilla, and Albert Bustamonte were all from San Antonio.  You have to go way back to Abraham Kazen (D-Laredo) for a person who has represented the 23rd, but wasn't from San Anton.  wwmiv said that Gallego is a little more conservative than Ciro Rodriguez as well.  That, combined with his geographic base, probably makes him harder to bump off than Ciro.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:32:22 PM PST

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      •  Little? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        I'd go further and say that Gallego is much more conservative than Ciro. Ciro made alot of hay about his "conservative" bona-fides, but most of that was smoke and mirrors. In reality the only issues where he was actually conservative on was abortion and same-sex marriage. Pete shares those positions publicly as well as taking numerous other conservative positions.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:43:26 PM PST

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    •  It is narrowly Romney (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen

      I haven't read anything below, so I'm responding without knowing what others have said:

      The tentative numbers that I have are about 51-49 two party vote rounded.

      It was narrowly Obama in 2008. Also keep in mind that the district will be redrawn to be more Democratic (Republicans are expected to take that up this session). It should end up probably as a narrow Obama district, probably 52-48 maybe even as high as 54-46.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:35:46 PM PST

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