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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  Marc Rubio has very good aprovals (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, betelgeux

    the kind of approvals that make potential oppenents think twice. Im confident in wining the Governorship in Florida. But we should waste our time in trying to get a senate seat that we wont win, in a VERY favorable year in the upper chamber. WI, IL, PA, NC are winnable compared to FL. And not to mention potential retirements in AZ and IA.

    And Nelson would be in that threshold where senators mull retirement. He has the right if he wants to retire. We have a good chance in holding that seat with the 2 individuals I mention. And if it's Castor that's even greater.

    So no, I dont want to waste time in getting a poll to see if Rubio is vuknarable in 16, We already no what that outcome is going to be.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:17:05 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  4 years from now (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007, jncca, James Allen, betelgeux, askew

      When these things are happening:

      Cubans are swinging left
      Hillsborough County trending blue
      Orlando, Palm Beach, and Miami area both growing and getting bluer.

      And you say we "know" that Rubio's not going to lose? Speak for yourself.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:21:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  When the FLADems (0+ / 0-)

        get their shit in order and are just as strong as the FLGOP then I'll reconsidered. Till then I still think he's favored for another stint.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:30:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Of course I will fight IL, WI and PA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

      and some open seat. No doubt about it.

      Florida will be polled lots of times this cycle. There is not cost and not time wasted by to include a question asking about Crist vs Rubio. Even it would be good to include also a second question asking about Sink vs Rubio. And if Rubio lead Crist by 7, the work is finished.

      Sometimes I think the people need to open a little the mind to more options.

    •  IL and WI are the two biggest Sen targets in '16 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, betelgeux, MichaelNY

      If Rubio runs for POTUS or retires, depending on what candidates both parties nominate, we could make a play for FL. NH is another potential target, as well as PA.

      Regarding PA, I think Toomey is more popular than Corbett is, but not by much, so there's our third biggest Senate target in 2016.

      WI is our second-biggest target, as Johnson is quite a bit less popular than Walker is, however, Johnson probably isn't unpopular enough to be vulnerable to a primary challege. Russ Feingold is reportedly considering a run for his old seat, and, if he doesn't unilaterally disarm like he did in 2010, he should be able to defeat Johnson. Simply put, Johnson's only chance of winning re-election is to somehow draw a weak Dem nominee.

      IL is our biggest target in 2016, since Kirk won in a perfect storm-type scenario (weak Dem nominee, GOP wave year, Green candidate siphoning votes away from Dem nominee). Expect a multi-way Dem primary here.

      "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:01:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No to Feingold (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SLDemocrat, betelgeux, askew, MichaelNY

        look I like Feingold, but in the post Citizen United era we can't run a candidate who is going to be gun ho on morals. Im still urked on how he ran his race in 2010.

        Ron Kind please!

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:13:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kind has serious issues with the Dem base in WI... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          betelgeux, MichaelNY

          ...he's quite in-tuned with local issues in Western Wisconsin (which is how he's entrenched himself to WI-3), but he's not a statewide candidate. His pro-NRA stance does NOT play well in Madison and Milwaukee, and he'd be blown out big time in that area of Wisconsin if faced with a competitive statewide primary.

          Simply put, Ron Johnson would LOVE to ratfuck a Dem primary for an ultra-liberal primary challenger to Kind.

          "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

          by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:17:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Who in Wisconsin you have in mind then? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:19:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Jessica King (0+ / 0-)

              She's a former state senator from the Oshkosh/Fond du Lac area (she lost her state senate seat by less than 600 votes in 2012 after more than $2 million was spent against her by a conservative business organization). She's quite liberal but doesn't come across as ultra-liberal.

              "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

              by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:24:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Chris Larson (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Is probably somewhat likely to run.

              Another strong possibility is Outagamie County Executive (and former Assembly Majority Leader (Tom Nelson.

          •  should be easily countered (5+ / 0-)

            Get the state party organization, Baldwin, and Kohl to endorse Kind early, and hopefully also get Feingold, Pocan, and Moore to endorse him. In the general, any Dem would clean up in Milwaukee and Madison, and Kind would likely run better in the rest of the state than anyone else available.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:36:33 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Kind could easily go the Gilly route once elected (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            senator. I'm very much a fabian/alinsky type in the sense that you have to compromise your views to win as many seats as possible.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:11:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  we're aware. (0+ / 0-)

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:50:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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