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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  I am not sure. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, skibum59, R30A

    Barber and Kirkpatrick are kind of quasi freshmen that will not retire after this term. McIntyre and Matheson had the narrowest escape this round. If they could not be knocked over this time with strong challengers, why won't they run and expect to win again, barring a midsize national wave against Ds. Peterson is entrenched. Barrow is kind of. The real possibility of retirement or running for higher office is Mr. Rahall.

    BTW, my take on the failure of Rs to knock off Barrow and McIntyre, is that they nominated candidates from the wrong places, namely the solidly Republican territories newly added to the districts. People there being not familiar with the blue dog representatives, already tended to vote by their party inclination. i.e. the margin Rs can get from there is pretty much the same no matter who the R candidate is. Also the R office holders there being elected and reelected so easily for so long that they overestimated their own appeals. I will repeat myself, the margins from these kinda grounds tend to be about the same no matter who the R nominees are. The existing ticket splitting areas are where the elections were decided, and people there knew and kinda liked their blue dog reps. The Rs actually might have a chance were the locally connected office holders from the ticket splitting area who could siphon off enough votes there,  adding to the large margin from the new turf, to win. Had they had someone from the Wilmington NC suburb, McIntyre is probably a goner. Well, not so easy the next round, though.

    •  I'm still worried about (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, R30A

      Matheson (yes I know he's one hell of a campaigner) and McIntyre.

      I'm worried manly because what happened to Chandler. He had a close call in 2010 and most of us thought he'd be fine as he weathered out the worst storm. But he still had a R leaning district to defend this cycle and went down.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:14:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think part of Chandler's defeat (4+ / 0-)

        was self-inflicted.  In redistricting they added some more coal heavy areas to the district of a guy who voted for cap and trade, that and he just ran a very lackluster campaign.  Chandler got the margins he needed in the coal-free parts of the district for the most part.  I'm eventually going to get around to taking a more in depth look at his campaign when I have the time, but that's my hypothesis so far.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 09:44:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This actually isn't the case (0+ / 0-)

          I believe that illinoyedr is going to be out with a diary shortly on this race showing that Chandler would have lost even without the new coal parts.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:21:31 PM PST

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          •  Quote "I think /part/ of Chandler's defeat" (0+ / 0-)

            and "got the margins he needed... for the most part.  The deciding factor is that he ran a crappy campaign, but if you look at A) his past performances, B) how Conway and Lunsford performed, and C) how our statewide executive candidates performed, the hypothesis that is best supported is that Chandler underperformed significantly in the more coal heavy counties and his support of Cap and Trade cost him dearly.

            Again, I haven't had the time to dig as deeply into the data as I'd like, especially at the precinct level, but I think that, all else equal, had he voted against Cap and Trade, or had he run a better campaign he'd be in the house.  To reiterate, that's my hypothesis. I'm not trying to be condescending, just more clear.  I think there's a good case to be made that either of those same two factors were deciding ones by themselves in Rick Boucher's 2010 defeat.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:46:52 PM PST

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            •  But... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              He didn't get the margins he needed. He lost the retained parts of the district, from what I understand (I'm too lazy to go check this for myself). That's by definition him not getting the "margins he needed".

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jan 17, 2013 at 12:12:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

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