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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  With these numbers for FL-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    With these numbers for FL-Gov, the Democratic Party also need to check FL-Sen 2016.

    Marco Rubio wins in 2010 but underperforming the Republican average.

    •  I'll say it again (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, SaoMagnifico, dc1000, MichaelNY

      FL-senate race in '16 is a pipe dream. Rubio is NOT losing. We got a better chance in holding Nelson's seat in '18 with Kathy Castor or Joe Garcia. Espcially with Castor given her name holds weights in important Tampa Bay. I live in reality, and reality says Rubio is heavily favored in '16

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:42:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would you be opposed to check with some poll? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, James Allen, betelgeux, MichaelNY

        This would not damage no-one, except, maybe, Rubio.

        For 2018 I would like Nelson continues. He wins term by term, with a voting record acceptable. Sincerely, I expect not more.

        •  Marc Rubio has very good aprovals (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, betelgeux

          the kind of approvals that make potential oppenents think twice. Im confident in wining the Governorship in Florida. But we should waste our time in trying to get a senate seat that we wont win, in a VERY favorable year in the upper chamber. WI, IL, PA, NC are winnable compared to FL. And not to mention potential retirements in AZ and IA.

          And Nelson would be in that threshold where senators mull retirement. He has the right if he wants to retire. We have a good chance in holding that seat with the 2 individuals I mention. And if it's Castor that's even greater.

          So no, I dont want to waste time in getting a poll to see if Rubio is vuknarable in 16, We already no what that outcome is going to be.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:17:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  4 years from now (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AUBoy2007, jncca, James Allen, betelgeux, askew

            When these things are happening:

            Cubans are swinging left
            Hillsborough County trending blue
            Orlando, Palm Beach, and Miami area both growing and getting bluer.

            And you say we "know" that Rubio's not going to lose? Speak for yourself.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:21:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  When the FLADems (0+ / 0-)

              get their shit in order and are just as strong as the FLGOP then I'll reconsidered. Till then I still think he's favored for another stint.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:30:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Of course I will fight IL, WI and PA (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

            and some open seat. No doubt about it.

            Florida will be polled lots of times this cycle. There is not cost and not time wasted by to include a question asking about Crist vs Rubio. Even it would be good to include also a second question asking about Sink vs Rubio. And if Rubio lead Crist by 7, the work is finished.

            Sometimes I think the people need to open a little the mind to more options.

          •  IL and WI are the two biggest Sen targets in '16 (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            abgin, betelgeux, MichaelNY

            If Rubio runs for POTUS or retires, depending on what candidates both parties nominate, we could make a play for FL. NH is another potential target, as well as PA.

            Regarding PA, I think Toomey is more popular than Corbett is, but not by much, so there's our third biggest Senate target in 2016.

            WI is our second-biggest target, as Johnson is quite a bit less popular than Walker is, however, Johnson probably isn't unpopular enough to be vulnerable to a primary challege. Russ Feingold is reportedly considering a run for his old seat, and, if he doesn't unilaterally disarm like he did in 2010, he should be able to defeat Johnson. Simply put, Johnson's only chance of winning re-election is to somehow draw a weak Dem nominee.

            IL is our biggest target in 2016, since Kirk won in a perfect storm-type scenario (weak Dem nominee, GOP wave year, Green candidate siphoning votes away from Dem nominee). Expect a multi-way Dem primary here.

            "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:01:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No to Feingold (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SLDemocrat, betelgeux, askew, MichaelNY

              look I like Feingold, but in the post Citizen United era we can't run a candidate who is going to be gun ho on morals. Im still urked on how he ran his race in 2010.

              Ron Kind please!

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:13:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Kind has serious issues with the Dem base in WI... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                betelgeux, MichaelNY

                ...he's quite in-tuned with local issues in Western Wisconsin (which is how he's entrenched himself to WI-3), but he's not a statewide candidate. His pro-NRA stance does NOT play well in Madison and Milwaukee, and he'd be blown out big time in that area of Wisconsin if faced with a competitive statewide primary.

                Simply put, Ron Johnson would LOVE to ratfuck a Dem primary for an ultra-liberal primary challenger to Kind.

                "All we say to America is be true to what you said on paper." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

                by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 03:17:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  What if he runs for president? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Whether he is the nominee or not, months spent campaign in IA, NH, and SC probably wont help his numbers in FL, especially considering he is still a freshman in a swing state.

        Because of that, I hope Dems find a good recruit for that Senate race.  

        •  Good point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but he is such an empty suit, and hes not running if Jeb runs. Or should I say when Jeb runs.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:44:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'd actually be surprised if the GOP picks him (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          There is actually some capability that the party could move even further downward in my estimation. I didn't care much for Romney or McCain, but they're both pretty accomplished guys with long resumes. Of course Romney was craven and McCain insane, but on paper at least, they seemed credible. Rubio's sole accomplishment is that he became friends with Jeb Bush. (Being Hispanic is not an accomplishment, he had no choice in that.) I suppose it's possible that party interest groups might let him put his name on a couple things so a Rubio Administration isn't utterly absurd as a proposition. I guess we'll see.

          •  I think Ryan and Rubio are bother weaker (4+ / 0-)

            candidates than the media makes them out to be. Members of Congress rarely make good presidential candidates; 2008 seemed to be the exception to that.

            And in 2016, it seems like there will be a decent field of GOP governors running for president. I can easily see Bobby Jindal pointing out he has actually enacted conservative policy in his state, rather than just talking about it like Ryan and Rubio.

            •  especially house members (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Its been like forever since a sitting congressman was elected to either Prez or Veep.

              I believe FDR's first VP, John N Garner, was the last one to do so. And he was not you typical member seeing as he was speaker. Heck after saying the job wasn't worth a bucket of piss, perhaps he should have stayed as speaker.

              "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

              by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 08:25:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

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