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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  Bonus: The 20 closest seats (4+ / 0-)

    to the 2008/2012 national numbers (in order)

    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)        51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)        52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)        52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    CO-06    Coffman, Mike    (R)        52.60%    54.42%    -1.82%
    NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)        50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
    MN-08    Nolan, Rick    (D)        52.81%    54.41%    -1.60%
    NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
    AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)        52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
    PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
    CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
    NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)        53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
    WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%
    CA-36    Ruiz, Raul    (D)        51.63%    51.55%    0.08%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
    MN-01    Walz, Tim    (D)        50.72%    52.10%    -1.39%
    FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)        50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
    PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
    I don't know what it is about central Iowa that so closely mimics the national mood but it does.  Also great: 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:57:43 PM PST

    •  that is cool (0+ / 0-)

      but those Republican districts are the ones we need to win.  Aside from any true LaTourette's Syndrome in some of them.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:04:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm looking at that list (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        I think MI-06, PA-06, and PA-08 have some pretty obvious LaTourette's Syndrome going on there. FL-13 does too, but that may owe more to Rep. Bill Young being so deeply entrenched than to the district simply being far more Republican at the local level than the presidential toplines would suggest. Ditto WA-08 and IA-03.

        Our candidates in CO-06, NY-19, NV-03, and to a lesser extent CA-10 weren't as great as we might have hoped. Romanoff could probably beat Rep. Coffman in 2014; Erin Bilbray could likely beat Rep. Joe Heck; not sure about our bench in the other two.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:13:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well let's see (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        looking at how downballot Dems typical do, generic D should underperform (in an open seat maybe) relative to Obama in:
        AZ-09
        CO-06
        FL-13
        MI-06
        NV-03
        NY-18
        NY-18
        NY-21
        PA-06
        PA-08
        WA-08

        At least those are the ones I've crunched the numbers for already.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:17:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Here are the Republicans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        in the 40 districts with the highest combined 2008/2012 Obama percentage, along with the trend:

        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
        CO-06    Coffman, Mike    (R)        52.60%    54.42%    -1.82%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%
        FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MN-03    Paulsen, Erik    (R)        50.41%    51.83%    -1.42%
        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        MN-02    Kline, John    (R)        50.05%    51.48%    -1.43%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        WA-03    Herrera Beutler, Jaime    (R)        49.13%    51.94%    -2.81%
        VA-10    Wolf, Frank    (R)        49.44%    51.41%    -1.97%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        MI-07    Walberg, Tim    (R)        48.43%    51.73%    -3.30%
        NY-23    Reed, Tom    (R)        49.39%    50.51%    -1.12%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        CA-25    McKeon, Buck    (R)        49.03%    50.52%    -1.49%
        WI-01    Ryan, Paul    (R)        47.88%    51.37%    -3.49%
        OH-10    Turner, Michael    (R)        49.03%    50.00%    -0.97%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry    (R)        47.28%    50.96%    -3.69%
        OH-14    Joyce, David    (R)        48.32%    49.85%    -1.52%
        IL-06    Roskam, Peter    (R)        45.83%    52.03%    -6.20%
        PA-16    Pitts, Joe    (R)        46.91%    50.55%    -3.65%
        FL-07    Mica, John    (R)        47.72%    49.60%    -1.87%
        CA-49    Issa, Darrell    (R)        46.59%    50.52%    -3.93%
        CA-39    Royce, Ed    (R)        48.11%    48.96%    -0.85%
        IL-16    Kinzinger, Adam    (R)        46.08%    50.92%    -4.84%
        NE-02    Terry, Lee    (R)        46.46%    50.51%    -4.04%
        About half trended D:
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        CA-39    Royce, Ed    (R)        48.11%    48.96%    -0.85%
        NY-19    Gibson, Chris    (R)        53.16%    54.08%    -0.92%
        IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)        52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
        OH-10    Turner, Michael    (R)        49.03%    50.00%    -0.97%
        NY-23    Reed, Tom    (R)        49.39%    50.51%    -1.12%
        FL-13    Young, Bill    (R)        50.76%    51.92%    -1.16%
        MN-03    Paulsen, Erik    (R)        50.41%    51.83%    -1.42%
        MN-02    Kline, John    (R)        50.05%    51.48%    -1.43%
        CA-25    McKeon, Buck    (R)        49.03%    50.52%    -1.49%
        OH-14    Joyce, David    (R)        48.32%    49.85%    -1.52%
        WA-08    Reichert, David    (R)        50.82%    52.39%    -1.57%

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:18:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Unfortunately for Dems (0+ / 0-)

        the Dem-leaning Republican seats that trended D mostly did so very mildly, while most of the ones that trended Republican did so by a larger amount.

        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)        55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
        CA-31    Miller, Gary    (R)        58.49%    57.73%    0.75%
        CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)        51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
        VA-04    Forbes, Randy    (R)        49.34%    49.24%    0.10%
        VA-02    Rigell, Scott    (R)        50.76%    50.86%    -0.10%
        NY-22    Hanna, Richard    (R)        49.80%    50.00%    -0.20%
        stand out as notably D-trending, while:
        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        IL-06    Roskam, Peter    (R)        45.83%    52.03%    -6.20%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        IL-16    Kinzinger, Adam    (R)        46.08%    50.92%    -4.84%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        NE-02    Terry, Lee    (R)        46.46%    50.51%    -4.04%
        CA-49    Issa, Darrell    (R)        46.59%    50.52%    -3.93%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry    (R)        47.28%    50.96%    -3.69%
        PA-16    Pitts, Joe    (R)        46.91%    50.55%    -3.65%
        WI-01    Ryan, Paul    (R)        47.88%    51.37%    -3.49%
        MI-07    Walberg, Tim    (R)        48.43%    51.73%    -3.30%
        WA-03    Herrera Beutler, Jaime    (R)        49.13%    51.94%    -2.81%
        stand out as notably R-trending. Some of that is likely just campaign effects, like the increased Republican effort in MI and WI relative to 2008.  But those PA seats are looking pretty solid for Team R, I think, especially since the incumbents are reasonably strong.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:25:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  How's the R-squared looking so far for (0+ / 0-)

      comparing 2008 performance by CD to 2012?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:07:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      NY01 will eventually make to the top range of your list, when we get a chance to crack the Suffolk county NY numbers. PA07 will probably end up in the lower range, but both are likely in the top 20 list.

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