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  •  D+ to R+ seats (2008 and 2012 results only). (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sawolf, jncca, BeloitDem

    And the reverse.

    Here are the current CDs where Obama's 2012 two-party percentage rounds to 52% or less, but his 2008 two-party percentage rounded to 53% or more.  Sorted by Obama's drop:

    WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)    47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
    IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)    49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
    WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)    48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)    50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
    PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)    48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)    49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
    MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)    48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
    PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)    48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
    PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)    49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
    OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)    51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
    NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)    50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    Here are the reverse:
    FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
    NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)    52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
    FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
    CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)    55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
    NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)    53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
    AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)    52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
    CA-10    Denham, Jeff    (R)    51.84%    51.55%    0.30%
    CA-36    Ruiz, Raul    (D)    51.63%    51.55%    0.08%
    NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
    CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
    IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%
    Obviously, NY-18, CA-07, and IA-03 are really just extremely close to even, so they showed up on both lists because of how I defined things.

    I'm quite curious about what happened with NV-03 (although I'm pretty sure either election was a big improvement over Kerry).

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:46:25 PM PST

    •  Actually, should I have used a larger percentage (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      for 2008?

      More precisely, blue to red:

      WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)    47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
      IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)    49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
      WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)    48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
      IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)    50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
      MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)    49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
      NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)    50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
      PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)    49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
      OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)    51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
      Blue to red:
      FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)    53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
      NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)    52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
      FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)    53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
      CA-21    Valadao, David    (R)    55.66%    53.06%    2.60%
      NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)    53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
      AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)    52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
      NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)    52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
      CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)    52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
      IA-03    Latham, Tom    (R)    52.13%    53.09%    -0.96%

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:56:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wait, ok. (0+ / 0-)

        Blue to red:

        WI-08    Ribble, Reid    (R)        47.77%    54.41%    -6.63%
        IL-13    Davis, Rodney    (R)        49.85%    55.60%    -5.75%
        WI-07    Duffy, Sean    (R)        48.43%    54.01%    -5.58%
        IL-12    Enyart, William    (D)        50.77%    55.65%    -4.88%
        PA-06    Gerlach, Jim    (R)        48.73%    53.54%    -4.80%
        MI-06    Upton, Fred    (R)        49.29%    54.02%    -4.73%
        MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    (R)        48.44%    52.85%    -4.41%
        PA-15    Dent, Charlie    (R)        48.53%    52.79%    -4.26%
        NV-03    Heck, Joe    (R)        50.41%    54.54%    -4.13%
        PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael    (R)        49.95%    53.79%    -3.84%
        OR-05    Schrader, Kurt    (D)        51.74%    54.53%    -2.78%
        NH-01    Shea-Porter, Carol    (D)        50.81%    53.23%    -2.42%
        Red to blue:
        FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    (R)        53.27%    48.80%    4.47%
        NY-11    Grimm, Michael    (R)        52.17%    48.48%    3.69%
        FL-26    Garcia, Joe    (D)        53.37%    49.80%    3.57%
        NY-21    Owens, Bill    (D)        53.10%    52.53%    0.58%
        AZ-09    Sinema, Kyrsten    (D)        52.30%    51.98%    0.33%
        NY-18    Maloney, Sean    (D)        52.18%    52.53%    -0.34%
        CA-07    Bera, Ami    (D)        52.05%    52.58%    -0.53%
        Sorry.  I blame Google Drive.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:10:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some of those numbers don't make sense (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      MI-08 for instance was R+1 in 2008 and NH-01 was R+0.  Are you sure you used the right Obama number?  It's 53.7% of the two party vote in 2008.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:57:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I did it again. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf

        It's one of those days over here.  I'm amazed I remembered who won.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:58:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm anal enough to use (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid

        53.68 for '08 and 48.76 for '04.  I always round to hundredths.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:12:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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