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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  weird (7+ / 0-)

    I can see McIntyre and Barrow, along with Barber if they can get McSally to run again. I suspect Rahall might actually do better without Obama at the top of the ticket, but it makes sense for them to make more of an effort than they did in 2012.

    The others are shaky. Peterson absolutely owns that district like Kent Conrad owned neighboring ND. Kirkpatrick lost by just 6 in a much redder version of the district in 2010, and unless they have a superstar lined up to run against her, she should win again. Mormon turnout will probably be a lot lower in 2014 than it was for Romney.
    Likewise 2012 was probably their best shot to dislodge Matheson. They fell short despite the mother of all coattail effects.

    I have Murphy as the second most vulnerable Dem after McIntyre, at least if West doesn't run again. I think Gallego might be vulnerable, in a Romney district where the Dem base is likely to have a big dropoff in a midterm. Maloney should be ok in a district Obama won by 4 that isn't especially prone to dropoff, and Garcia might be home free in a district Obama won by 7 that is rapidly turning blue.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:19:01 PM PST

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