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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  It's hard to see Dems taking the MI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    even with a fair map. Democratic votes are pretty concentrated in Wayne, Genesee, Washtenaw, and Ingham Counties, so it's pretty easy for any map to pack Democrats to the benefit of Republicans. Additionally, seats that may be nominally Democratic leaning in Oakland, Macomb, and Kent Counties still often elect Republicans at the local level, making it difficult to build a D majority in anything but a wave year.

    •  The main problem is that the MI-St. Sen. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, James Allen, MetroGnome

      is too small; only 38 seats. It needs to increase in size.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:05:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or just be eliminated... n/t (5+ / 0-)

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:12:37 PM PST

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      •  It is doable in the Michigan Senate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoosierD42

        if a few key things are done, we could have a fairly safe Senate control:
        1. A Muskegeon based district
        2. A downtown Grand Rapids district
        3. A Kalamazoo-Battle Creek district
        4. Two districts out of Flint and Lansing (one an East Lansing-Jackson seat, the other Lansing and Eaton and Clinton Counties)
        5. Two north/south seats in the southern half of Macomb County (one from 8-mile to Mt. Clemons, the other a Warren/Sterling Heights seat)
        6. East-west oriented districts in Wayne County (not bacon districts though), so that no GOPers represent Wayne County)
        7. A Bay City-Saginaw district
        8. Three seats in the SE quarter of Oakland County
        9. A Monroe County-Yipsilanti district
        10.Win back the traditional Dem UP district
        This gets us up to 23 seats

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 01:24:51 PM PST

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        •  There's already a Muskegon Seat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          it's fairly compact, just Muskegon, Oceana, and Newaygo Counties, and it should be one of Democrats' top targets in 2014. Additionally, "downtown" Grand Rapids is way to small for one Senate seat; as it stands, Grand Rapids is entirely contained within the 29th District. If the 29th were altered to include GR suburbs like Kentwood and Wyoming, Democrats would stand a better chance of picking it up, but it wouldn't be assured. Either way, the map you are describing is more of a Democratic gerrymander than a fair map.

          •  I did not include Newaygo County (0+ / 0-)

            and in its place added Lake, Mason and Mastinee Counties. Came out to 60/38 Obama, 50/50 in the 2010 numbers. My Grand Rapid area seat is 63/35 Obama and 51/49 GOP in the 2010 numbers. I would say my map is more of a Dem gerrymander hiding in the guise of a fair map. My Lansing area would not likely be in a commission map though.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:47:50 PM PST

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            •  You mind posting the map? (0+ / 0-)

              I'm curious.

              Also, DRA doesn't have 2010 numbers for Michigan. The Dem and Rep averages are an average of Gov, SoS, and AG for 2006, although it comes out to a 5 point Republican statewide win (which is a really pessimistic scenario) since Republicans won SoS and AG big.

              •  Sorry about that (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem

                I meant to put 2006, but I had 2010 in my head. Here is SE Michigan. I probably violated sections of the Michigan Constitution, but here it is for SE Michigan:
                Photobucket

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:44:02 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  And a better Detroit Metro (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem

                Photobucket

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:47:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The map is good for a D gerrymander (0+ / 0-)

                  But a commission wouldn't split Ann Arbor, nor Ingham County. Michigan legislative maps almost always follow county and municipality lines, and I think that there may be a statute preventing excessive county or city splits, which would make the South-East Michigan portion of your map pretty questionable. However, it is still possible to make a decent D-gerrymander without excessively splitting municipalities.

                  •  The real area for gains under a commission (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MenhentheDem

                    is in Oakland and Macomb Counties. A fair map could net us 3 seats.

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 06:38:40 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  This (0+ / 0-)

        It's always been my view that the Senate is way too small.  I know it's not the smallest in the states, but it's too small for a state with nearly 10 million people.  It's going to be very hard to ever get a workable majority for Dems in the state senate.  Even the last time we had the Senate - in the early 80's - I think we had a two-seat edge, or something.

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