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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/16 (364 comments)

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  •  former guv running for the house? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

    Not going to happen. Very few recent examples of that. Of course we have the possibility of Don't Cry for me Argentina Sanford going back to the house after a guv stint, but he was already in the house before that, and from pretty much the same district.

    Bill Janklow is the only recent guv in the past 20-30 years I can think of who went to the house from the guv mansion. And given SD only has 1 seat in the house, it's not much of a demotion in terms of represenation. Given how many seats FL has, no way does Crist run for the house. He should run for governor...he was a pretty good governor, even as a Republican. And evidence shows after a party switch, one tends to behave more like their newly-found party (Nate did an analysis on this a year or so ago after Arlen Specter switched)

    •  Mike Castle did as well (4+ / 0-)

      The politics of big states and small states are radically different. In small states, there's a lot of clout in being in the House, since you're often the only voice the state has in there. In big states, being in the House is the lowest rung, and it's somewhat common to leave the House to run for statewide posts. Adam Putnam left a top House post to run for Ag Secretary in Florida, for example. And old Dan Lungren left the House in the '90s to be California's AG.

      Which is to say that Crist running for the House is not very likely at all.

    •  Oh course he wouldn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Neither would Brian Schweitzer, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't be great candidates.  One can always dream :)

      I do wish Schweitzer would send Baucus packing though, but that's probably very unlikely too.  I just don't see how a small state former governor like Schweitzer gets on the national ticket as anything other than VP and he'll have been out of office for 4 years by 2016.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:44:30 AM PST

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      •  Not impossible to imagine (5+ / 0-)

        1. He adopts an Iowa-first strategy, shakes every hand in the state. His populist, friendly style would fit well there.
        2. If he wins Iowa, he becomes a top-tier candidate. My guess is he bypasses NH (probably is won by Cuomo or O'Malley, or another technocratic type), and works hard in NV and SC. He wins either of those, he's a frontrunner. Both, and it's over.

        Definitely, this gets easier with Cuomo as a foil. But in today's Democratic Party, I think technocrat moderate vs. progressive populist is a battle we can win, and Cuomo will have a black mark with nearly every interest in the Democratic Party.

        •  Very true and if anyone is going to make history (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, GoUBears

          and become the first person from a 1 CD state to become president, my money would absolutely be on Schweitzer.

          I would love to see him stay involved in politics as he's the embodiment of what we should want in a populist Democrat (along with Ted Strickland as a close second).  His veto "branding" was all sorts of awesome.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:23:52 AM PST

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      •  I dream the same dream (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Crist would force Young into retirement for sure. History aside, he's also extremely ambitious and wouldn't do it...some unambitious governor the govs in Alabama or Mississippi. Not saying that'll happen either...but they're more likely than Crist. On electability grounds, I am for Crist. But he is blatantly ambitious to a fault

    •  that's still better than Julian Carroll (4+ / 0-)

      the former governor of Kentucky who now serves in the state senate.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:51:46 AM PST

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    •  amazing how time passes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      but Specter switched nearly four years ago.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:43:07 AM PST

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    •  When I was in undergrad back in 2004, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      one of my political science classes looked at the evidence around behavior of party switchers.  It was the same things that Nate said years later, party switchers move to the middle of their party.

      One of the theories is that switching parties is a big deal - it's more than just a label.  So when you do it, you do it whole-heartedly.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:05:16 PM PST

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